OPEC+或于十月继续增产，原油维持震荡 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年9月26日，SC主力合约小幅上涨0.14%至491.3元/ 桶，WTI微跌0.05%至65.19美元/桶，Brent微升0.03%至68.82美元/桶。价 差方面，SC-Brent小幅收窄0.01美元至0.04美元/桶，SC-WTI价差走强0.04 美元至3.67美元/桶，Brent-WTI价差扩大0.05美元至3.63美元/桶，显示欧 美市场对轻质原油的溢价增强。SC连续-连3价差进一步走弱0.8元至-4.3 元/桶，反映近月合约承压。 持仓与成交 ：洲际交易所数据显示，截至9月23日当周，布伦特原油投机 净多头头寸减少11,592手至220,579手，柴油净多头头寸削减3,817手至 114,507手，显示市场对能源品后市的谨慎情绪升温。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：OPEC+可能于10月5日会议上批准至少13.7万桶/日的增产，叠加 伊拉克库尔德地区石油出口恢复，预计未来原油供应边际增加。但乌克兰 对俄罗斯楚瓦什输油泵站的袭击及炼油厂攻击事件，或加剧俄罗斯原油出 口的不确定性。此外， ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年9月28日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：单边观望，轻仓过节 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：单边观望，轻仓过节 IEA报告 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-23原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 原油2511： 4.盘面：20日均线偏下，价格在均线下方；偏空 1.基本面：根据联合组织数据倡议(JODI)公布的数据，沙特阿拉伯7月原油出口量降至599.4万桶/日，创 下了四个月以来的最低水平；官员表示，伊拉克石油部将于周二开始重启库尔德斯坦地区的原油出口 程序，预计将在48小时内恢复通过管道向土耳其出口原油；科威特石油部长表示，科威特当前原油产 能已达到320万桶/日，这是该国十余年来公布的最高产能评估数据；中性 2.基差：9月22日，阿曼原油现货价为68.99元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.82元/桶，基差30元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至9月12日当周API原油库存减少342万桶，预期 ...

OPEC原油月度供应和油价 source： 彭博,南华研究 百万桶/天 OPEC原油月度供应 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 15/12 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 25/12 28 30 32 34 36 25 50 75 100 125 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 15/12 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 100 200 300 400 500 25 50 75 100 125 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 短期维度，中东、东欧及南美地缘局势虽紧张但无实质性升级，对油价的提振仅体现为 "预期性风险溢价"， 参考历史规律，此类扰动通常一周内完成盘面计价消化。 南华期货原油产业周报 2025年9月22日 ——降息落地，油价震荡下行 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油市场的核心矛盾，在于短期扰动因素（地缘风险、宏观政策余波）的阶段性支撑与中长期基本面 （ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight oil prices rose and then fell. The market was observing potential additional sanctions from the EU on Russia, which supported oil prices. However, Trump's remarks after meeting with the UK Prime Minister to lower oil prices caused a significant drop in oil prices, and the oil price rebound was blocked again. The market will continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and long - term investors should hold and observe. The short - term price will operate within the range of 485 - 495, and long - term investors should hold long positions for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Russia's August seaborne oil product exports increased by 8.9% month - on - month to 9440000 tons due to refinery maintenance completion and increased fuel production. The Kuwaiti oil minister expects oil demand to increase after the US interest rate cut, especially in Asia. US and Chinese flight numbers are decreasing after the summer travel season, and distillate inventories increased by 4 million barrels to 124.68 million barrels, raising concerns about demand in the world's largest oil - consuming country [3]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.80 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.83 per barrel. The basis was $32.19 per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.42 million barrels in the week ending September 12, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels. EIA inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels in the same period, far exceeding the expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.296 million barrels in the week ending September 12. As of September 18, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 9, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trump's Remarks**: Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and believed that lowering oil prices was the key to ending the conflict. He also hinted at increasing production from the North Sea to lower oil prices. He said it was not the right time to ask Putin to stop the war and mentioned his past efforts to promote a summit between Putin and Zelensky [5]. - **Global Oil Inventory**: Global oil inventories observed by the IEA increased for the sixth consecutive month. In July, global oil inventories increased by 26.5 million barrels, with a cumulative increase of 187 million barrels this year. However, global oil inventories were still 67 million barrels lower than the five - year average. OECD member countries' commercial oil inventories increased by 6.9 million barrels. In August, global oil inventories remained basically unchanged. It is expected that global inventories will increase at a rate of 2.5 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 due to supply exceeding demand [5]. - **Hungary's Stance**: Hungarian officials oppose prematurely stopping the import of Russian fossil fuels without viable alternatives, stating that it would endanger national energy security. The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian gas and oil by the end of 2027, which Hungary and Slovakia oppose [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: None mentioned. - **Negative Factors**: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude decreased, with declines of 1.52%, 1.23%, 0.70%, and 0.56% respectively [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The spot prices of various types of crude oil, including UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, etc., all decreased, with declines ranging from 0.23% to 1.07% [9]. - **API Inventory**: The API inventory decreased by 3.42 million barrels in the week ending September 12 [10]. - **EIA Inventory**: The EIA inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels in the week ending September 12 [14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Fund Net - Long Position**: As of September 9, the net - long position of the WTI crude fund was 81844, a decrease of 20584 [17]. - **Brent Crude Fund Net - Long Position**: As of September 9, the net - long position of the Brent crude fund was 209578, a decrease of 41476 [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-16原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：贝森特表示，除非欧洲国家率先对中国和印度征收高额关税，否则特朗普政府不会对中国 商品加征新关税来阻止中国购买俄罗斯石油；美国和中国官员周一表示，双方已就短视频应用TikTok转 为由美国控制所有权达成一项框架协议，美国财政部长贝森特表示，原定于9月17日的最后期限可能会 延长90天，以便完成交易，但拒绝透露具体细节；乌克兰上周五对俄罗斯普里莫尔斯克港发动无人机 袭击，目前该波罗的海港口已恢复运营，至少有两艘油轮已在该港完成装货作业；中性 2.基差：9月15日，阿曼原油现货价为70.95元/桶， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term oil price is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. The supply side has formed a new balance between the increase in US exports and India's oil source switch, but the expansion of Russian oil discounts may stimulate non - US buyers to replenish stocks. On the demand side, the high refinery operating rate coexists with the differentiation of terminal refined oil consumption. The reduction of gasoline inventory supports the oil price, while the concern of diesel inventory accumulation limits the upside space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the continuity of OPEC+ production policy and the autumn maintenance rhythm of Northern Hemisphere refineries [5]. - The crude oil market presents a mixed situation of long and short factors. On the supply side, the increase in US exports, the resumption of the Friendship Pipeline, and India's procurement structure adjustment may increase market supply, but Norway's stable production and OPEC+ production cuts still support oil prices. On the demand side, the high operating rate of US refineries and the recovery of crude oil demand support consumption, but the high distillate oil inventory indicates weak diesel demand. Inventory depletion is good but shows regional differentiation. The increase in Cushing inventory suppresses WTI, while the decline in commercial inventory provides support. Geopolitical risks and changes in trade flows increase market uncertainty. International oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On August 20, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 484.2 yuan/barrel, slightly down from the previous day. WTI and Brent closed at $62.0/barrel and $65.95/barrel respectively, continuing the weak consolidation. The SC - Brent spread widened to $1.47/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened to $5.42/barrel, indicating the continued valuation repair of domestic SC crude oil relative to international oil prices. The Brent - WTI spread rose to $3.95/barrel, and the tight supply pattern in the European market supported the Brent premium. The near - end contract of SC weakened, and the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 3 changed from +2.2 yuan/barrel the previous day to -3.7 yuan/barrel, showing the pressure of near - month delivery [2]. - The daily fluctuation range of the SC crude oil main contract narrowed to 481.9 - 488.1 yuan/barrel, and the closing price fell slightly by 0.87%, reflecting that the market trading sentiment tended to be cautious [2]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: Norway's crude oil production in July remained at 1.958 million barrels per day, and the production of non - OPEC+ countries was stable. The crude oil supply of the Friendship Pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia resumed, and the Eurasian land logistics disturbance was alleviated. Indian state - owned refineries reduced their purchases of Russian oil (a 19% month - on - month decrease in July) and turned to Middle Eastern and US oil sources, and the Russian oil export structure faced adjustment pressure. US crude oil exports are expected to rebound to more than 4 million barrels per day in August and September, and the discount of WTI relative to Middle Eastern oil stimulates Asian demand [3]. - **Demand side**: The operating rate of US refineries rose to 96.6% (previous value 96.4%), the demand for crude oil processing strengthened, and the derived demand for crude oil production jumped to 20.738 million barrels per day (previous value 19.813 million barrels). The operating rate of Japanese refineries rose to 86.9% (previous value 84.4%), but the commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 27,777 kiloliters, and the replenishment of gasoline and kerosene was active. Diesel demand showed fatigue, and the derived demand for US distillate oil production slightly decreased to 5.1193 million barrels per day (previous value 5.142 million barrels) [3]. - **Inventory side**: US commercial crude oil inventories plummeted by 6.014 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.759 million barrels). The larger - than - expected decline was mainly due to a large decrease in imports of 1.218 million barrels and an increase in derived demand for production. Cushing inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels against the trend (previous value +0.045 million barrels), and inventory accumulation at the delivery location suppressed WTI. EIA data showed a significant reduction in US crude oil inventories, but the increase in Cushing inventories and the differentiation of refined oil inventories limited the rebound momentum of oil prices. The differentiation of refined oil inventories was significant. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels more than expected, and refined oil inventories increased significantly by 2.343 million barrels, indicating weak diesel demand and the support of gasoline consumption by the summer travel season [4]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment The short - term oil price may still maintain a volatile pattern. On the supply side, the increase in US exports and the switch of Indian oil sources form a new balance, but the expansion of Russian oil discounts may stimulate non - US buyers to replenish stocks. On the demand side, the high operating rate of refineries coexists with the differentiation of terminal refined oil consumption. The reduction of gasoline inventory provides support for the oil price, while the concern of diesel inventory accumulation limits the upside space. In the medium term, pay attention to the continuity of OPEC+ production policy and the autumn maintenance rhythm of Northern Hemisphere refineries [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: On August 20, 2025, the SC futures price was 482.80 yuan/barrel, down 1.40 yuan or -0.29% from the previous day; the WTI futures price was $62.84/barrel, up $0.84 or 1.35%; the Brent futures price was $67.04/barrel, up $1.09 or 1.65% [7]. - **Spot prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $68.45/barrel. The Brent spot price increased by $0.02 to $67.64/barrel, the Oman spot price increased by $0.76 to $68.82/barrel, the Shengli spot price increased by $0.22 to $64.21/barrel, the Dubai spot price increased by $0.72 to $68.89/barrel, the ESPO spot price increased by $0.41 to $62.13/barrel, and the Duri spot price increased by $0.01 to $67.46/barrel [7]. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread decreased from $1.47 to $0.21, a decrease of 85.71%; the SC - WTI spread decreased from $5.42 to $4.41, a decrease of 18.63%; the Brent - WTI spread increased from $3.95 to $4.20, an increase of 6.33%; the spread between SC consecutive and consecutive 3 decreased from -3.70 yuan/barrel to -4.20 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 13.51% [7]. - **Other assets**: The US dollar index decreased slightly by 0.04 to 98.22, a decrease of 0.04%; the S&P 500 index decreased by 15.59 points to 6,395.78, a decrease of 0.24%; the DAX index decreased by 146.10 points to 24,276.97, a decrease of 0.60%; the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.18 [7]. - **Inventory and production data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 420.684 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%; Cushing inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels to 23.47 million barrels, an increase of 1.82%; the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.0223 million barrels to 400.3425 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; API inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels to 450.796 million barrels, a decrease of 0.53%. The weekly operating rate of US refineries increased by 0.20 percentage points to 96.60%, an increase of 0.21%, and the crude oil processing volume of US refineries increased by 0.028 million barrels per day to 17.208 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.16% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: The FU futures price was 2,718.00 yuan/ton, up 32.00 yuan or 1.19%; the LU futures price was 3,443.00 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan or -0.66%; the NYMEX fuel oil price remained unchanged at 225.67 cents/gallon [8]. - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, while the high - sulfur 180: Singapore (near - month) price increased by $2.55 to $401.34/ton, and the Russian M100 CIF price decreased by $5.00 to $437.00/ton [8]. - **Paper prices**: The high - sulfur 380: Singapore (near - month) price increased by $2.30 to $388.59/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was missing; the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 55.00 yuan to 725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.05%; the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread decreased by 23.00 yuan to -1,968.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18%; the FU - Singapore 380CST spread increased by 32.00 yuan to -1,938.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.62% [8]. - **Platts prices**: The Platts (380CST) price decreased by $14.30 to $387.97/ton, a decrease of 3.55%; the Platts (180CST) price decreased by $11.18 to $401.70/ton, a decrease of 2.71% [8]. - **Inventory data**: Singapore inventories decreased by 1.674 million tons to 24.645 million tons, a decrease of 6.36%. US distillate inventories (<15ppm) increased by 2.69 million barrels to 106,744.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 2.59%; US distillate inventories (15ppm - 500ppm) increased by 0.155 million barrels to 3,384.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 4.80%; US distillate inventories (>500ppm) decreased by 0.503 million barrels to 5,899.00 thousand barrels, a decrease of 7.86%; US distillate DOE inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels to 116,028.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 2.06%; US residue - containing DOE inventories increased by 0.077 million barrels to 19,809.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 0.39% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.3.1 Supply - On August 20, the EIA put - into - production crude oil volume in the US for the week ending August 15 was 0.028 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.056 million barrels per day. - The crude oil supply of the Friendship Pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia resumed. - Indian state - owned refineries reduced their purchases of Russian oil in July (a 19% month - on - month decrease), and will turn to Middle Eastern or US oil sources in August and September to replace Russian oil [3][10]. - US crude oil exports are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day in August and September, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year [14]. 3.3.2 Demand - For the week ending August 15 in the US, the EIA derived demand for distillate fuel oil production was 5.1193 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 5.142 million barrels per day; the derived demand for motor gasoline production was 9.8616 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 9.8247 million barrels per day; the derived demand for crude oil production was 20.738 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 19.813 million barrels per day. - The EIA refinery utilization rate was 96.6%, higher than the expected 95.7% and the previous value of 96.4%. - The EIA refined oil imports were 0.074 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.215 million barrels per day; the EIA refined oil production was 0.193 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 0.032 million barrels per day; the EIA gasoline production was -0.259 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.01 million barrels per day [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - For the week ending August 15 in the US, the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0223 million barrels to 22.3 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels to 41.9 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels to 234.3 million barrels, higher than the expected 92.8 million barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to -272 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 0.915 million barrels; heating oil inventories decreased by 0.503 million barrels to -50.3 million barrels; new - formula gasoline inventories remained unchanged at 0 million barrels; crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to -601.4 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.759 million barrels [12]. - As of the week ending August 16, Japanese commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 27,777 kiloliters to 11,918,475 kiloliters, gasoline inventories increased by 31,339 kiloliters to 1,500,799 kiloliters, and kerosene inventories increased by 50,424 kiloliters to 2,496,963 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 86.9%, up from 84.4% the previous week [13]. - For the week ending August 15 in the US, API crude oil inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels to 450.796 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels [13]. 3.3.4 Market Information - After a sluggish summer, US crude oil exports have begun to rebound as US domestic refineries start preventive maintenance and the Trump administration threatens to impose tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil. US exports in August and September are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year. In Asia, WTI is cheaper than Middle Eastern crude oil, and sales in the next two weeks should continue to be boosted as traders start selling crude oil for October loading [14]. - As of the 2:30 close, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.52% to 777 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.60% to 9,160 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil main contract rose 0.95% to 487 yuan/barrel; in another closing data, the Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.36% to 773 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract fell 1.65% to 9,061 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.87% to 481 yuan/barrel [14]. - The increase in India's purchases is due to the larger discount of Russian oil [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, US weekly crude oil production, US and Canadian oil rig counts (Baker Hughes), OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig counts (Baker Hughes), US refinery weekly operating rates, US refinery crude oil processing

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market shows characteristics of weak supply and demand, with more obvious supply pressure. In the medium - term, oil prices may remain in a low - level, volatile and weak pattern, and the SC - WTI spread has room to further narrow [5]. - Supply - side factors such as Iraq's price war, increased production in the Middle East and Canada, and India's substitution of Russian oil purchases form triple negative impacts. Demand is only supported by policies in some local markets, and global industrial demand is still constrained by China's economic weakness and the tightening policies of Europe and the United States [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On August 8, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped to 489.8 yuan/barrel, a 2.24% decline from the previous day, showing a continuous five - day downward trend. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 63.82 and 66.41 US dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI weakened by 47.49% and 26.92% respectively, indicating a significant narrowing of the premium of Chinese crude oil futures relative to international oil prices. The spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive - three narrowed to 8.6 yuan/barrel, weakening the near - weak and far - strong structure [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may disrupt Russia's refined oil exports, but Russia has stated that it will increase processing volume to ensure fuel supply. Iraq lowered its official crude oil selling prices to North America and Europe in September, indicating its intention to seize market share. Coupled with the recovery of heavy crude oil production in Canada and the Middle East, the global crude oil supply is relatively loose [2]. - **Demand Side**: India approved a 300 - billion - rupee LPG subsidy, which may boost household fuel consumption. However, the demand side of refineries is differentiated. US refiners benefit from the increased supply of heavy crude oil, and their profit expectations are improved. In China, the prices of refined products such as asphalt and fuel oil have fallen, and the PPI in July continued to decline negatively, suggesting that the demand for infrastructure and industrial oil has not substantially recovered [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory data of Cushing and commercial crude oil in the United States have not been updated. The decrease in the procurement cost of heavy crude oil by refineries may drive refineries to increase their utilization rates, thereby accelerating inventory depletion. Russia's increase in crude oil processing volume to meet domestic demand may suppress its crude oil export volume. However, India's possible reduction of Russian oil imports may lead to competitive selling of Russian oil flowing to Europe, indirectly increasing the implicit inventory pressure on OECD countries [4]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market has the characteristics of weak supply and demand, with more obvious supply pressure. In the medium - term, OPEC+ has not yet signaled further production cuts, and the improvement of US refinery profits has limited impact on demand. Oil prices may maintain a low - level, volatile and weak pattern, and the SC - WTI spread has room to further narrow [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On August 8, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price was 489.80 yuan/barrel, a 2.24% decline from the previous day; the WTI price was 63.35 US dollars/barrel, a 0.74% decline; the Brent price was 66.32 US dollars/barrel, a 0.14% decline [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of crude oil spot showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [7]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between SC and Brent, SC and WTI narrowed, while the spread between Brent and WTI widened. The spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive - three also narrowed [7]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index rose by 0.19%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.78%, the DAX index fell by 0.12%, and the RMB exchange rate remained basically unchanged [7]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.71%, the Cushing inventory increased by 2.01%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.06%. The API inventory decreased by 0.93%. The US refinery weekly开工率 increased by 1.57%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 1.26% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The prices of various fuel oil futures showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various fuel oil spot also showed different degrees of change [8]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different types of fuel oil showed different degrees of change, with some narrowing and some widening [8]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 6.69% [8]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - On August 10, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked Russia's Saratov refinery. On August 8, India was willing to reduce its oil imports from Russia as part of the tariff settlement and was also willing to purchase from other places. India's oil companies continued to import Russian oil, but the quantity might decrease. India's Hindustan Petroleum Corporation was looking for alternative sources of oil [9][10]. 3.3.2 Demand - US refiners' ability to purchase heavy crude oil at low prices will improve in the second half of this year. India's cabinet approved a 300 - billion - rupee LPG subsidy. Russia increased its oil processing and fuel production to meet demand [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged compared with the previous trading day [12]. 3.3.4 Market Information - Iraq set the official selling prices of Basra medium - sulfur crude oil for different regions in September. China's PPI in July was expected to improve. The prices of crude oil - related futures contracts showed different degrees of decline. India's cabinet approved a 300 - billion - rupee subsidy for state - owned fuel retailers [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc [15][17][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights increasing uncertainty in oil prices due to OPEC's production increases and secondary sanctions on Russia. OPEC plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and may consider further reductions in the future [5][6]. - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $60 to $70 per barrel, with the overall supply-demand balance remaining loose [15]. - The upstream sector is experiencing mixed trends in drilling day rates, while the refining sector shows signs of improvement in profitability due to rising product price spreads [5][22]. - The polyester sector is anticipated to recover, with expectations of rising profitability for leading companies [16]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of August 8, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $66.43 per barrel, down 4.65% from the previous week, while WTI futures closed at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.12% [22]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels, which is 6% lower than the five-year average [25]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 539, down 1 from the previous week and down 49 year-on-year [35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $16.62 per barrel, up $1.14 from the previous week [58]. - The price spread for ethylene was reported at $239.72 per ton, up $16.47 from the previous week, while the propylene price spread decreased to $113.50 per ton [5][55]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a decline in PTA profitability, with prices dropping to 4692 RMB per ton, down 3.29% week-on-week [5]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is considered average, with a focus on demand changes and expectations of gradual improvement as new capacities come online [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, due to favorable competitive dynamics [16][18]. - It also suggests monitoring upstream exploration and production companies, particularly offshore service firms, for potential performance improvements [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight news that Trump and Putin will meet in the coming days has significantly increased the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing oil prices to drop again. Oil prices are approaching the lower limit of the previous range. India may shift some of its import share to the Middle East due to the threat of sanctions on Russian oil, increasing the supply tightness in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has raised its official export prices to keep prices firm during the peak season, which may support domestic crude oil prices. The medium - term price still has upward support. Short - term, pay attention to the results of the Trump - Putin meeting, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate greatly. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the range of 495 - 503, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. - In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium and long term, wait for the end of the peak season and an increase in supply [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Russia and the US have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit in the coming days; the US President Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil; OPEC is closely monitoring market dynamics. The situation is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.38 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $68.81 per barrel. The basis was 11.14 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: For the week ending August 1, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.845 million barrels), and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.591 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.453 million barrels. As of August 7, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.249 million barrels, unchanged, which is bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil main contracts increased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, oil prices will operate in the range of 495 - 503, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Russia - US Summit**: Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit of the two heads of state in the near future. The market's reaction to this news has led to a decline in oil prices. WTI crude oil has fallen below $64 per barrel [5]. - **US Crude Oil Exports**: In July, US crude oil exports dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years, about 3.1 million barrels per day, due to domestic supply shortages and price increases of WTI futures [5]. - **Trade Tariffs**: The US may extend the tariff truce with China by 90 days. Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and may also consider tariffs on China [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to be achieved, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed. Brent crude oil decreased by $0.46 (- 0.69%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.47 (- 0.73%), SC crude oil increased by $0.10 (0.02%), and Oman crude oil decreased by $0.95 (- 1.35%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, and other crude oils in the spot market have changed. UK Brent decreased by $1.60 (- 2.30%), WTI decreased by $0.47 (- 0.73%), etc. [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show changes in US crude oil inventories. For example, for the week ending August 1, API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 156,023, an increase of 2,692 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 261,352, an increase of 33,959 [18].