更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 资深原油专家交流 20260104 摘要 0&A 委内瑞拉近期的局势对原油市场有何影响? 委内瑞拉的局势对原油市场产生了多方面的影响。首先,从短期来看,地缘政治 因素使得市场名义上看起来过剩,但实际上并没有那么严重。委内瑞拉目前的原 油产量约为 80-100 万桶/日,出口量在 2025 年 11 月约为 70 万桶，其中 80%以 上出口到中国。然而,由于美国对委内瑞拉的制裁,特别是从 2025年 12 月 9 日开始,美国扣押了第一艘委内瑞拉原油运输船,并在之后封锁了委内瑞拉海岸 线,导致其出口量显著下降。 如果美国解除制裁,并给予足够的稀释剂供应, 争 男 - 委内瑞拉原油出口受美国制裁影响显著,若制裁解除且稀释剂供应充足, 其产量可能在 3-6个月内增加 40 万桶/日至 120-140 万桶/日,对 2026 年全球原油平衡表产生重大影响,雪佛龙公司或受益。 2026年全球原油市场供需展望相对悲观,预计每日过剩100万桶,总体 ● 过剩率在 200-250 万桶/日以上,主要由于巴西、圭亚那、阿根廷等地的 新项目集中爆发,新增供应将在 202 ...

诺瓦克透露，未来五年俄罗斯原油年产量有望提升至5.4亿吨，但需为石油行业注入新投资。他表示， 当前正推进北极大陆架难采储量开发，该过程需额外成本与配套资金，将通过完善条件、打造良好环境 吸引投资流入。 谈及全球原油市场，诺瓦克称供需平衡，此观点与OPEC+一致，却与国际能源署等多数预测机构迥 异，后者认为2026年将出现显著供应过剩，需求增长难达乐观预期。 中化新网讯 近日，俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克宣布，俄国2025年原油产量将与上年持平，维持在约 5.16亿吨，2026年预计增至5.25亿吨，增幅约2%，目标将依据社会经济发展预期推进。按1吨折合7.33 桶换算，2025年日均产量约1036万桶，2026年将达1054万桶。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of crude oil is mostly affected by geopolitical events. The overnight attack on the Caspian Pipeline in Central Asia and the tense situation between the US and Venezuela support the price. The SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see. The market is also waiting for the US envoy's meeting with Russian President Putin to discuss the peace plan [3]. - The short - term negative impacts are exhausted, the geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Suggestion - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Energy Minister believes that OPEC+'s new mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity will help stabilize the market. Trump's remarks on closing Venezuela's airspace increase geopolitical uncertainty. The US - Ukraine talks on the peace proposal and subsequent European leaders' support for Zelensky add to the geopolitical complexity, overall showing a neutral situation [3]. - **Basis**: On December 1, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.41 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $63.86 per barrel. The basis was 38.94 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish sign [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21. The EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21 (expected to increase by 0.055 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory decreased by 6.8 barrels in the week ending November 21 (previous value decreased by 69.8 barrels). As of December 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, showing a bullish sign [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish sign [3]. - **Main Position**: As of October 14, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased. As of November 25, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, showing a bearish sign [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US President Trump will hold a meeting at the White House on Monday evening to discuss the next step against Venezuela. The US government is increasing pressure on Venezuela, and there are questions about the legality of US military actions in the region [5]. - Kazakhstan protests against Ukraine's recent attacks on the facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The administrative building and mooring facilities of the consortium were attacked, causing production disruptions [5]. - After the US - Ukraine talks on the peace proposal, European leaders support Zelensky, and the US envoy will meet with Russian President Putin to discuss the peace plan [3][5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions against Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East is easing, institutions have a consistent expectation of crude oil oversupply, and there is a possibility of US - Russia meeting and negotiation [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil increased by $0.79 (1.27%), $0.77 (1.32%), 2.50 yuan (0.55%), and $0.16 (0.25%) respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: Among the spot prices of various types of crude oil, the prices of WTI crude oil increased by $0.77 (1.32%), while the prices of UK Brent Dtd, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by $0.37 (- 0.57%), $0.21 (- 0.32%), $0.15 (- 0.25%), and $0.02 (- 0.03%) respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21. The EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of October 14, the net long positions decreased by 13,318 [3][17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of November 25, the net long positions decreased by 57,430 [3][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Geopolitical concerns have eased, leading to continued weakness in oil prices. However, the increasing probability of the US launching military action against Venezuela provides potential support for oil prices. In the short term, oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels, waiting for more geopolitical news. SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 443 - 453, and long - term investors should remain on the sidelines. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The US is preparing to initiate a new phase of Venezuela - related actions, and the US and Ukraine are making progress in cease - fire negotiations but have not reached a consensus on key issues. The overall situation is neutral. [3] - **Basis**: On November 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $62.98 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.06 per barrel. The basis was 26.20 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [3] - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14, more than the expected decrease of 0.603 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 69,800 barrels in the week ending November 14. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of November 20, which is bullish. [3] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. [3] - **Main Position**: As of October 7, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased; as of November 18, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts increased, which is bullish. [3] 3.2 Recent News - **US - Ukraine Negotiations**: US and Ukrainian senior officials said they had made substantial progress in bridging differences. However, Trump's criticism on social media complicated the negotiation prospects. Zelensky thanked Trump but said more work was needed to reach a final agreement. [5] - **Economic Outlook**: US Treasury Secretary Besent is optimistic about the economic growth in 2026. The economic effects of the Republican's large - scale expenditure plan, the "One Big, Beautiful Bill Act", have not fully manifested. Healthcare costs are expected to become more affordable, but some economic sectors, such as housing, are struggling. [5] - **Internal Resistance**: US Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker publicly questioned Trump's Ukraine peace plan, indicating significant resistance within the Republican Party. [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions against Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The Middle East situation has eased, institutions generally expect an oil surplus, and there is a possibility of a meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia. [6] - **Market Drivers**: Short - term bearish impacts have subsided, geopolitical bullish factors are not obvious, and there is a long - term risk of oversupply. [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $64.89 to $63.51, a decline of 2.13%; WTI crude oil decreased from $60.67 to $59.25, a decline of 2.34%; SC crude oil increased from 462.3 to 463.2, an increase of 0.19%; Oman crude oil increased from $64.51 to $64.75, an increase of 0.37%. [7] - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.13%, WTI decreased by 2.14%, Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by 0.43%, Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by 0.74%, and Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by 0.48%. [9] - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14. [3][10][13] 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of October 7, the net long position decreased. The net long position on October 7 was 74,309, a decrease of 28,991 compared to the previous period. [17] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of November 18, the net long position increased. The net long position on November 18 was 178,364, an increase of 13,497 compared to the previous period. [19]

经历前期阴跌行情，10月下旬以来国际原油价格有所回暖。截至11月18日，国内原油期货主力合约2601 最高报466.2元/桶，较一月前低点回涨超7%。 消息面上，11月欧佩克+产油国开会审议全球石油市场形势并制定未来产量计划。会议决定，欧佩克 +产油国12月份再度增产13.7万桶/日，增产幅度符合市场预期。不过会议同时声明，欧佩克+产油国决 定暂停2026年一季度的增产计划。产油国暂停增产的消息令市场对供应过剩的担忧情绪适度降低，并进 一步减弱对油市的利空影响。 "2020年历史性负油价之后，为了实现原油市场供需再平衡，欧佩克+减产同盟国开始并长时间维持减 产政策。随着供需状况转变，欧佩克+减产政策经历多番调整。结合欧佩克+部长级会议以及主要产油 国的会议决议来看，2024年以来，欧佩克+减产政策可以简化为两个部分：一是自愿减产220万桶/日， 二是联合减产165万桶/日。欧佩克+减产政策的恢复计划（即增产计划）于2024年开始酝酿，直至2025 年才落地实施。"卓创资讯分析师桑潇表示。 分析指出，产油国增产利空油市，但结合实际情况来看，利空影响受到两方面的制约，一是部分产油国 本身产能不足，实际产量难以匹配 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction in the current crude oil market is that short - term geopolitical and macro - level positive factors have been mostly digested. The market driver has entered a vacuum period, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals, but the pressure has not been relieved. Coupled with the uncertainty of the OPEC+ meeting, the market is in a low - level oscillation with a risk of decline. Without new positive factors, the fundamentals will continue to suppress, and the oil price is likely to fall within the oscillation range to digest the previous emotional premium [1]. - In the short - term, the trading logic is mainly the game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - level emotions. In the long - term, it is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with a continuous supply surplus pressure [3][4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term geopolitical and macro - level positive factors have been digested. The market has entered a vacuum period, and the focus is back on fundamentals. The OPEC+ meeting on November 2nd is a key variable. Iraq's request to increase its quota may lead to an unexpected meeting result. Without new positive factors, the oil price is likely to fall within the 60 - 65 US dollars oscillation range [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is expected to have a short - term rebound and repair, and a medium - term weak oscillation. - For the unilateral strategy, short positions can be taken when Brent rebounds to 66 - 68 US dollars, with a stop - loss at 70 US dollars. - For the arbitrage strategy, a reverse arbitrage is recommended. - For the options strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [7]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - The US sanctions on Russian energy companies led to concerns about supply, pushing the Brent crude oil to rise 7.6% in a single week, and the near - month WTI and Brent crude oil prices approached 62 US dollars/barrel and exceeded 66 US dollars/barrel respectively [8]. - The significant decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories implies an improvement in demand, which may support the oil price [9]. - The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the demand expectation and provides short - term support for the oil price [10]. - **Negative Information**: - Fed Chairman Powell said that a December interest rate cut is not certain, and the market's pricing probability for a December rate cut dropped from 92% to 70% [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 2nd will discuss the December production policy. The mainstream expectation is a continued small - scale increase of 13.7 million barrels per day. Iraq's request to increase its quota from 4.4 million to 5.5 million barrels per day may disrupt the balance. If the increase exceeds expectations, the oil price may fall to 60 US dollars; otherwise, it may rebound to 65 US dollars [13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Volume - Price and Capital Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: The crude oil price first fell and then stabilized this week. The position was at a high level, and the trend indicators improved, with the market sentiment gradually warming up. The SC position percentile was 79.26%, indicating an active capital side [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The disk rebounded and repaired, breaking the previous downward trend. The SC2512 rose 6.87% this week, closing at 468.9 yuan/barrel. As of October 31st, the INE crude oil futures position was 74,991 lots, a decrease of 8,814 lots week - on - week [17][18]. - **Foreign Market**: On Friday, the US oil main contract closed down 0.57% at 60.98 US dollars/barrel, a weekly decrease of 0.85%; the Brent crude oil main contract settled at 65.07 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.32% from last Friday. Affected by the US government shutdown, the CFTC did not release the WTI position data. As of October 28th, the ICE Brent crude oil futures position was 3,025,757 contracts, a decrease of 77,164 contracts week - on - week; the managed fund net long position was 173,887 contracts, an increase of 122,096 contracts week - on - week [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of October 31st, the Brent monthly spread (01 - 03) was 0.87 US dollars/barrel, the WTI monthly spread (01 - 03) was 0.72 US dollars/barrel, and the SC monthly spread (01 - 03) was - 0.7 yuan/barrel. The monthly spreads of both domestic and foreign crude oils weakened [26]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of October 24th, the SC - Brent spread was - 0.56 US dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was 3.52 US dollars/barrel. The spread between SC and Brent crude oil weakened again due to the stronger support of geopolitical risk premiums for foreign crude oil [30]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of October 24th, the crude oil cracking spreads in the European market strengthened comprehensively this week. In North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel cracking was stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, the cracking spreads weakened, and refinery profits continued to decline [38]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 barrels per day. From October 25th - 31st, the number of active US oil rigs was 414, a week - on - week decrease of 6 [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US refinery crude oil input was 15.219 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 511,000 barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate was 86.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2 percentage points. From October 24th - 30th, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China was 62.38%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03 percentage points, and that of major refineries was 80.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 percentage points [54]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 24th, the total US commercial crude oil inventory was 415,966 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6,858 thousand barrels; the strategic petroleum inventory was 409,097 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 533 thousand barrels; the Cushing region's petroleum inventory was 22,565 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1,334 thousand barrels. As of October 29th, the commercial crude oil inventory index at Chinese ports was 108.42, a week - on - week decrease of 1.13%, and the storage capacity accounted for 59.23% of the total capacity, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67 percentage points [56]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US crude oil export volume was 4.361 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 158,000 barrels per day, and the petroleum product export volume was 6.666 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 687,000 barrels per day. From October 14th - 20th, the Middle East's seaborne crude oil export volume was 16.4168 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. This week, Russia's seaborne crude oil export volume was 3.8752 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 20.19% [58]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA continued to raise its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. It is expected that in 2025, the global production will be 105.85 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.67 million barrels per day compared to 2024; in 2026, it will be 107.17 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.31 million barrels per day compared to 2025. - OPEC maintained its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. In 2025, the demand will be 105.14 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In 2026, it will be 106.52 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.38 million barrels per day compared to 2025. - IEA slightly lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026 in its October report [61][62].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Core View: Bullish factors are gradually digested, and oil prices are mainly bearish [5] Group 2: Market Analysis - OPEC+ Situation: OPEC+ production release is moderate, but member countries decide to continue increasing production, deepening concerns about market supply surplus. There is still a possibility of accelerated production increase. Kuwait's oil minister says OPEC is ready to increase production when demand rises. Saudi Arabia previously wanted to speed up production increase but was opposed by Russia. Iraq is negotiating its crude oil production quota [6][16][18] - Russia Sanctions: Russia is sanctioned again, leading to strong short - term market wait - and - see sentiment. Attention is on the implementation of later sanctions. Short - term, some purchases may shift to Middle Eastern countries [6][23][24] - US Crude Oil Production: US crude oil production grows slowly, and the growth space in the 4th quarter is relatively limited. The Dallas Fed survey shows weak exploration and development willingness and rising costs [6][25][27] - Macro - economic Situation: Sino - US trade negotiations are advancing, easing the macro - atmosphere to some extent, but the market reaction after the leaders' meeting is flat. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp, but the direct boost to oil prices is limited in the short term [6] - Supply - demand Balance: EIA and IEA significantly raise global crude oil supply expectations in their monthly reports. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the market inventory accumulation speed accelerates. The inventory accumulation in the 4th quarter of this year and the 1st quarter of 2026 is adjusted from 190/255 barrels per day to 265/300 barrels per day [6][40][42] Group 3: Market Performance in October - Price Trend: International oil prices reversed in a V - shape in October. At the beginning, prices fluctuated narrowly. After Trump's remarks on tariffs and sanctions, prices first fell and then rebounded. As of October 28, SC closed at 464.1 yuan/barrel with a 3.95% decline; Brent closed at $64.85/barrel with a 0.73% decline; WTI closed at $61.26/barrel with a 0.63% decline [13][14] Group 4: Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Outlook: Bullish factors are gradually digested. Under the pressure of oversupply, oil prices may decline again. The implementation of US sanctions on Russia needs attention. In the short term, the market may increase purchases of Middle Eastern crude oil, supporting relevant oil types and SC to strengthen relatively [52][53] - Operation Suggestions: In the short term, focus on long domestic and short foreign positions. In the medium term, maintain a bearish view, try short on rebounds or conduct reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to OPEC+ meetings [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradiction in the crude oil market is the game between short - term geopolitical risk positives and medium - to - long - term fundamental negatives, with the balance tilting towards the negatives. Short - term geopolitical news has pushed up Brent crude prices, but if the situation does not escalate, prices may fall next week. Medium - to - long - term, supply is sufficient and demand is weak, and geopolitical positives cannot change the long - term trend [1]. - Near - term trading is mainly a game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - sentiment. Distant - term trading is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with a continuous pressure of supply surplus [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction is the game between short - term geopolitical risk positives and medium - to - long - term fundamental negatives. Short - term geopolitical news has pushed up Brent by $2 - 3, but the risk is only at the news - disturbance stage. Medium - to - long - term, Russia can adjust supply and OPEC is ready to increase production, while demand is weak [1]. - Near - term trading logic is a game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - sentiment. Distant - term trading is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with supply surplus pressure and slowing demand growth [3]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is in short - term rebound repair and medium - term weak oscillation. - Strategy suggestions: For single - side trading, short at high levels when Brent rebounds to $66 - 68, with a stop - loss at $70; for arbitrage, use reverse arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: New sanctions on Russia by the US and EU have raised concerns about supply disruptions and pushed up oil prices. The unexpected decline in US crude inventories also supported prices [7]. - **Negative Information**: Trump's response to the Venezuela military situation and the possibility of a Trump - Putin meeting [8]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - OPEC + meeting: Whether to adjust the production - increase plan will affect oil prices. - Execution of sanctions on Russia: Strong execution may push up prices, while weak execution has limited impact. - Development of trade tensions: A trade agreement may boost demand and prices, while further tension will depress prices [10]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Analysis - This week, crude oil prices rebounded and were supported by geopolitical risk premiums. On Friday, US crude futures fell 0.57% to $61.44/barrel, up 7.51% for the week; Brent crude futures fell 0.57% to $64.92/barrel, up 7.06% for the week [12]. - **Domestic Market**: SC2512 rose 6.87% this week. Last week, its trading volume was 680,800 lots, and open interest increased by 41,065 lots. - **International Market**: As of October 21, ICE Brent crude futures open interest increased by 128,998 lots week - on - week, while managed funds' net long positions decreased by 58,520 lots [14][15]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of October 24, Brent and WTI monthly spreads strengthened, while domestic and Middle - East spreads weakened, showing that geopolitical support cannot offset weak fundamentals [23]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of October 24, the SC - Brent spread widened negatively, and the Brent - WTI spread widened, as external crude oil was more strongly supported by geopolitical risk premiums [27]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of October 24, European crude oil cracking spreads strengthened across the board. In North America and the Asia - Pacific, diesel cracking was stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, cracking spreads weakened and refinery profits continued to decline [32]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 11 - 17, US crude production was 13.629 million barrels/day, down 0.7 million barrels/day week - on - week. From October 18 - 24, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by 2 to 420 [46]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 11 - 17, US refinery crude input increased by 600,000 barrels/day week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate rose 2.9 percentage points. From October 17 - 23, the utilization rate of independent refineries in China decreased by 0.61 percentage points, and that of major refineries decreased by 0.34 percentage points [48]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 17, US commercial crude inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels week - on - week, strategic petroleum inventories increased by 819,000 barrels, and Cushing crude inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels [50]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 11 - 17, US crude exports decreased by 263,000 barrels/day week - on - week, while petroleum product exports increased by 353,000 barrels/day. From October 7 - 13, Middle - East seaborne crude exports decreased by 10.65% week - on - week, and Russian seaborne crude exports increased by 16.70% [52]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA raised its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC kept its demand forecasts unchanged. IEA slightly lowered its demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [55][56].

Core Viewpoint - Major oil executives maintain an optimistic outlook on the medium to long-term oil market, expecting demand growth and falling oil prices to alleviate the current oversupply situation and rebalance supply and demand [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - Executives from major oil companies and U.S. shale regions believe that when WTI prices fall below $60, U.S. shale oil production will decrease [1] - TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne states that while the short-term oil market fundamentals appear weak, the medium-term outlook is positive due to declining production rates and sustained global oil demand [1] - Pouyanne identifies $60 per barrel as the critical point where non-OPEC oil production, particularly shale oil, will begin to decline, predicting a significant reduction in non-OPEC supply starting mid-2026 [1] Group 2: U.S. Oil Production Predictions - ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance suggests that if WTI prices remain in the $60-$65 range, U.S. oil production may stabilize, with a potential increase of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day this year [2] - However, if prices drop to the $50-$60 range, production may peak or even slightly decline, raising concerns about how to meet market demand through conventional oil as unconventional supply reaches its limit [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have declined due to various factors, including trade tensions between the US and China, which have created a volatile market environment. As of October 17, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $61.29 and $57.15 per barrel, respectively [2][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in global oil supply, with the IEA forecasting a more severe oversupply situation for the coming year [2]. - The US crude oil production reached 13.636 million barrels per day, showing a slight increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week [2][50]. - The report notes a decrease in US refinery crude processing to 15.130 million barrels per day, down by 1.167 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 85.70%, a decline of 6.7 percentage points [2][62]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $61.29 per barrel, down $1.44 (-2.30%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $57.15 per barrel, down $1.75 (-2.97%) [2][19]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of October 13, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 373, an increase of 2 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained stable at 132 [2][29]. Crude Oil Supply - The US crude oil production was reported at 13.636 million barrels per day, with the number of active drilling rigs remaining at 418 [2][50]. Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing decreased to 15.130 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 85.70% [2][62]. Crude Oil Inventory - As of October 10, 2025, total US crude oil inventories stood at 832 million barrels, an increase of 4.284 million barrels (+0.52%) from the previous week [2][63]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [2][3].