1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term oil price is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. The supply side has formed a new balance between the increase in US exports and India's oil source switch, but the expansion of Russian oil discounts may stimulate non - US buyers to replenish stocks. On the demand side, the high refinery operating rate coexists with the differentiation of terminal refined oil consumption. The reduction of gasoline inventory supports the oil price, while the concern of diesel inventory accumulation limits the upside space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the continuity of OPEC+ production policy and the autumn maintenance rhythm of Northern Hemisphere refineries [5]. - The crude oil market presents a mixed situation of long and short factors. On the supply side, the increase in US exports, the resumption of the Friendship Pipeline, and India's procurement structure adjustment may increase market supply, but Norway's stable production and OPEC+ production cuts still support oil prices. On the demand side, the high operating rate of US refineries and the recovery of crude oil demand support consumption, but the high distillate oil inventory indicates weak diesel demand. Inventory depletion is good but shows regional differentiation. The increase in Cushing inventory suppresses WTI, while the decline in commercial inventory provides support. Geopolitical risks and changes in trade flows increase market uncertainty. International oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On August 20, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 484.2 yuan/barrel, slightly down from the previous day. WTI and Brent closed at $62.0/barrel and $65.95/barrel respectively, continuing the weak consolidation. The SC - Brent spread widened to $1.47/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened to $5.42/barrel, indicating the continued valuation repair of domestic SC crude oil relative to international oil prices. The Brent - WTI spread rose to $3.95/barrel, and the tight supply pattern in the European market supported the Brent premium. The near - end contract of SC weakened, and the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 3 changed from +2.2 yuan/barrel the previous day to -3.7 yuan/barrel, showing the pressure of near - month delivery [2]. - The daily fluctuation range of the SC crude oil main contract narrowed to 481.9 - 488.1 yuan/barrel, and the closing price fell slightly by 0.87%, reflecting that the market trading sentiment tended to be cautious [2]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: Norway's crude oil production in July remained at 1.958 million barrels per day, and the production of non - OPEC+ countries was stable. The crude oil supply of the Friendship Pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia resumed, and the Eurasian land logistics disturbance was alleviated. Indian state - owned refineries reduced their purchases of Russian oil (a 19% month - on - month decrease in July) and turned to Middle Eastern and US oil sources, and the Russian oil export structure faced adjustment pressure. US crude oil exports are expected to rebound to more than 4 million barrels per day in August and September, and the discount of WTI relative to Middle Eastern oil stimulates Asian demand [3]. - **Demand side**: The operating rate of US refineries rose to 96.6% (previous value 96.4%), the demand for crude oil processing strengthened, and the derived demand for crude oil production jumped to 20.738 million barrels per day (previous value 19.813 million barrels). The operating rate of Japanese refineries rose to 86.9% (previous value 84.4%), but the commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 27,777 kiloliters, and the replenishment of gasoline and kerosene was active. Diesel demand showed fatigue, and the derived demand for US distillate oil production slightly decreased to 5.1193 million barrels per day (previous value 5.142 million barrels) [3]. - **Inventory side**: US commercial crude oil inventories plummeted by 6.014 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.759 million barrels). The larger - than - expected decline was mainly due to a large decrease in imports of 1.218 million barrels and an increase in derived demand for production. Cushing inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels against the trend (previous value +0.045 million barrels), and inventory accumulation at the delivery location suppressed WTI. EIA data showed a significant reduction in US crude oil inventories, but the increase in Cushing inventories and the differentiation of refined oil inventories limited the rebound momentum of oil prices. The differentiation of refined oil inventories was significant. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels more than expected, and refined oil inventories increased significantly by 2.343 million barrels, indicating weak diesel demand and the support of gasoline consumption by the summer travel season [4]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment The short - term oil price may still maintain a volatile pattern. On the supply side, the increase in US exports and the switch of Indian oil sources form a new balance, but the expansion of Russian oil discounts may stimulate non - US buyers to replenish stocks. On the demand side, the high operating rate of refineries coexists with the differentiation of terminal refined oil consumption. The reduction of gasoline inventory provides support for the oil price, while the concern of diesel inventory accumulation limits the upside space. In the medium term, pay attention to the continuity of OPEC+ production policy and the autumn maintenance rhythm of Northern Hemisphere refineries [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: On August 20, 2025, the SC futures price was 482.80 yuan/barrel, down 1.40 yuan or -0.29% from the previous day; the WTI futures price was $62.84/barrel, up $0.84 or 1.35%; the Brent futures price was $67.04/barrel, up $1.09 or 1.65% [7]. - **Spot prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $68.45/barrel. The Brent spot price increased by $0.02 to $67.64/barrel, the Oman spot price increased by $0.76 to $68.82/barrel, the Shengli spot price increased by $0.22 to $64.21/barrel, the Dubai spot price increased by $0.72 to $68.89/barrel, the ESPO spot price increased by $0.41 to $62.13/barrel, and the Duri spot price increased by $0.01 to $67.46/barrel [7]. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread decreased from $1.47 to $0.21, a decrease of 85.71%; the SC - WTI spread decreased from $5.42 to $4.41, a decrease of 18.63%; the Brent - WTI spread increased from $3.95 to $4.20, an increase of 6.33%; the spread between SC consecutive and consecutive 3 decreased from -3.70 yuan/barrel to -4.20 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 13.51% [7]. - **Other assets**: The US dollar index decreased slightly by 0.04 to 98.22, a decrease of 0.04%; the S&P 500 index decreased by 15.59 points to 6,395.78, a decrease of 0.24%; the DAX index decreased by 146.10 points to 24,276.97, a decrease of 0.60%; the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.18 [7]. - **Inventory and production data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 420.684 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%; Cushing inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels to 23.47 million barrels, an increase of 1.82%; the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.0223 million barrels to 400.3425 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; API inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels to 450.796 million barrels, a decrease of 0.53%. The weekly operating rate of US refineries increased by 0.20 percentage points to 96.60%, an increase of 0.21%, and the crude oil processing volume of US refineries increased by 0.028 million barrels per day to 17.208 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.16% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: The FU futures price was 2,718.00 yuan/ton, up 32.00 yuan or 1.19%; the LU futures price was 3,443.00 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan or -0.66%; the NYMEX fuel oil price remained unchanged at 225.67 cents/gallon [8]. - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, while the high - sulfur 180: Singapore (near - month) price increased by $2.55 to $401.34/ton, and the Russian M100 CIF price decreased by $5.00 to $437.00/ton [8]. - **Paper prices**: The high - sulfur 380: Singapore (near - month) price increased by $2.30 to $388.59/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was missing; the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 55.00 yuan to 725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.05%; the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread decreased by 23.00 yuan to -1,968.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18%; the FU - Singapore 380CST spread increased by 32.00 yuan to -1,938.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.62% [8]. - **Platts prices**: The Platts (380CST) price decreased by $14.30 to $387.97/ton, a decrease of 3.55%; the Platts (180CST) price decreased by $11.18 to $401.70/ton, a decrease of 2.71% [8]. - **Inventory data**: Singapore inventories decreased by 1.674 million tons to 24.645 million tons, a decrease of 6.36%. US distillate inventories (<15ppm) increased by 2.69 million barrels to 106,744.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 2.59%; US distillate inventories (15ppm - 500ppm) increased by 0.155 million barrels to 3,384.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 4.80%; US distillate inventories (>500ppm) decreased by 0.503 million barrels to 5,899.00 thousand barrels, a decrease of 7.86%; US distillate DOE inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels to 116,028.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 2.06%; US residue - containing DOE inventories increased by 0.077 million barrels to 19,809.00 thousand barrels, an increase of 0.39% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.3.1 Supply - On August 20, the EIA put - into - production crude oil volume in the US for the week ending August 15 was 0.028 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.056 million barrels per day. - The crude oil supply of the Friendship Pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia resumed. - Indian state - owned refineries reduced their purchases of Russian oil in July (a 19% month - on - month decrease), and will turn to Middle Eastern or US oil sources in August and September to replace Russian oil [3][10]. - US crude oil exports are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day in August and September, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year [14]. 3.3.2 Demand - For the week ending August 15 in the US, the EIA derived demand for distillate fuel oil production was 5.1193 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 5.142 million barrels per day; the derived demand for motor gasoline production was 9.8616 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 9.8247 million barrels per day; the derived demand for crude oil production was 20.738 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 19.813 million barrels per day. - The EIA refinery utilization rate was 96.6%, higher than the expected 95.7% and the previous value of 96.4%. - The EIA refined oil imports were 0.074 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.215 million barrels per day; the EIA refined oil production was 0.193 million barrels per day, up from the previous value of 0.032 million barrels per day; the EIA gasoline production was -0.259 million barrels per day, down from the previous value of 0.01 million barrels per day [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - For the week ending August 15 in the US, the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0223 million barrels to 22.3 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.419 million barrels to 41.9 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 2.343 million barrels to 234.3 million barrels, higher than the expected 92.8 million barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to -272 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 0.915 million barrels; heating oil inventories decreased by 0.503 million barrels to -50.3 million barrels; new - formula gasoline inventories remained unchanged at 0 million barrels; crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to -601.4 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.759 million barrels [12]. - As of the week ending August 16, Japanese commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 27,777 kiloliters to 11,918,475 kiloliters, gasoline inventories increased by 31,339 kiloliters to 1,500,799 kiloliters, and kerosene inventories increased by 50,424 kiloliters to 2,496,963 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 86.9%, up from 84.4% the previous week [13]. - For the week ending August 15 in the US, API crude oil inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels to 450.796 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels [13]. 3.3.4 Market Information - After a sluggish summer, US crude oil exports have begun to rebound as US domestic refineries start preventive maintenance and the Trump administration threatens to impose tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil. US exports in August and September are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year. In Asia, WTI is cheaper than Middle Eastern crude oil, and sales in the next two weeks should continue to be boosted as traders start selling crude oil for October loading [14]. - As of the 2:30 close, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.52% to 777 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.60% to 9,160 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil main contract rose 0.95% to 487 yuan/barrel; in another closing data, the Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.36% to 773 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract fell 1.65% to 9,061 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.87% to 481 yuan/barrel [14]. - The increase in India's purchases is due to the larger discount of Russian oil [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, US weekly crude oil production, US and Canadian oil rig counts (Baker Hughes), OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig counts (Baker Hughes), US refinery weekly operating rates, US refinery crude oil processing

一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 原油溢价显著收窄叠加供应宽松，期价弱势延续 主力合约与基差： SC原油主力合约价格于8月8日跌至489.8元/桶，较前一 日下跌2.24%，呈现连续第五日下行，走势疲软；WTI和Brent价格则维持 63.82和66.41美元/桶的稳定状态。SC与Brent、WTI的价差分别走弱47.49% 和26.92%，显示中国原油期货相对国际油价的溢价显著收窄。SC连续-连三 价差收窄至8.6元/桶（前值12元），近弱远强结构弱化，反映市场对短期 供应过剩的担忧。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 俄罗斯萨拉托夫炼油厂遇袭事件可能对俄罗斯成品油出口形成扰动，但俄 罗斯已表态将提升加工量以保障燃料供应。伊拉克下调9月对北美和欧洲的 原油官方售价，暗示其抢占市场份额的意图，叠加加拿大和中东重质原油 产量回升，全球原油供应偏宽松。 需求端： 印度批准3000亿卢比LPG补贴，可能提振居民燃料消费，但炼厂需求端出现 分化：美国炼油商受益于重质原油供应增加，盈利预期改善；中国沥青、 燃料油等成品价格下跌，叠加7月PPI延续负增长，暗示基建及工业用油需 求尚未实质回暖。 库存端： 美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights increasing uncertainty in oil prices due to OPEC's production increases and secondary sanctions on Russia. OPEC plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and may consider further reductions in the future [5][6]. - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $60 to $70 per barrel, with the overall supply-demand balance remaining loose [15]. - The upstream sector is experiencing mixed trends in drilling day rates, while the refining sector shows signs of improvement in profitability due to rising product price spreads [5][22]. - The polyester sector is anticipated to recover, with expectations of rising profitability for leading companies [16]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of August 8, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $66.43 per barrel, down 4.65% from the previous week, while WTI futures closed at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.12% [22]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels, which is 6% lower than the five-year average [25]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 539, down 1 from the previous week and down 49 year-on-year [35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $16.62 per barrel, up $1.14 from the previous week [58]. - The price spread for ethylene was reported at $239.72 per ton, up $16.47 from the previous week, while the propylene price spread decreased to $113.50 per ton [5][55]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a decline in PTA profitability, with prices dropping to 4692 RMB per ton, down 3.29% week-on-week [5]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is considered average, with a focus on demand changes and expectations of gradual improvement as new capacities come online [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, due to favorable competitive dynamics [16][18]. - It also suggests monitoring upstream exploration and production companies, particularly offshore service firms, for potential performance improvements [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight news that Trump and Putin will meet in the coming days has significantly increased the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing oil prices to drop again. Oil prices are approaching the lower limit of the previous range. India may shift some of its import share to the Middle East due to the threat of sanctions on Russian oil, increasing the supply tightness in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has raised its official export prices to keep prices firm during the peak season, which may support domestic crude oil prices. The medium - term price still has upward support. Short - term, pay attention to the results of the Trump - Putin meeting, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate greatly. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the range of 495 - 503, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. - In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium and long term, wait for the end of the peak season and an increase in supply [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Russia and the US have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit in the coming days; the US President Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil; OPEC is closely monitoring market dynamics. The situation is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.38 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $68.81 per barrel. The basis was 11.14 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: For the week ending August 1, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.845 million barrels), and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.591 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.453 million barrels. As of August 7, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.249 million barrels, unchanged, which is bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil main contracts increased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, oil prices will operate in the range of 495 - 503, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Russia - US Summit**: Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit of the two heads of state in the near future. The market's reaction to this news has led to a decline in oil prices. WTI crude oil has fallen below $64 per barrel [5]. - **US Crude Oil Exports**: In July, US crude oil exports dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years, about 3.1 million barrels per day, due to domestic supply shortages and price increases of WTI futures [5]. - **Trade Tariffs**: The US may extend the tariff truce with China by 90 days. Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and may also consider tariffs on China [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to be achieved, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed. Brent crude oil decreased by $0.46 (- 0.69%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.47 (- 0.73%), SC crude oil increased by $0.10 (0.02%), and Oman crude oil decreased by $0.95 (- 1.35%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, and other crude oils in the spot market have changed. UK Brent decreased by $1.60 (- 2.30%), WTI decreased by $0.47 (- 0.73%), etc. [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show changes in US crude oil inventories. For example, for the week ending August 1, API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 156,023, an increase of 2,692 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 261,352, an increase of 33,959 [18].

非农就业数据大幅下修，经济衰退担忧加剧 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 2025年8月1日，SC原油主力合约价格小幅回落至527.9元/桶（较前一 日-0.64%），而WTI和Brent原油期货价格维持稳定于69.36美元/桶和71.78 美元/桶，未呈现波动。SC-Brent价差显著走弱至1.43美元/桶（前值2.08 美元），跌幅达31.25%，反映国内原油期货相对国际基准的溢价收窄；SC- WTI价差同步收窄0.65美元至3.85美元/桶。值得注意的是，SC连续-连3价 差走强2.2元至11.6元/桶，显示出近月合约支撑力度增强。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 www.thqh.com.cn 供给端：供给压力边际增加。OPEC+在8月3日会议中宣布9月将增产54.7万 桶/日，标志着自2024年以来最大规模减产计划的全面退出，此举可能缓解 全球闲置产能限制，但实际增产效果需关注成员国产能执行率。美国供给 保持扩张，5月原油产量创纪录达1,349万桶/日，得州产量增至575.2万桶/ 日（2024年11月以来最高）。但8月1日当周美国石油钻井数减少5口至410 口，或反映短期页岩 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed to significantly increase oil production in September, with a planned daily increase of 548,000 barrels, reversing previous production cuts and potentially leading to a supply surplus by the end of the year [1][3][2]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ is set to approve a daily increase of 548,000 barrels in an upcoming meeting, marking a shift from previous production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [3]. - This decision is seen as a response to geopolitical tensions and aims to alleviate pressure on oil prices, benefiting consumers and aligning with U.S. President Trump's objectives [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market may face an oversupply situation later this year due to the increase in production and slowing global economic growth [2][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The timing of OPEC+'s decision coincides with U.S. President Trump's threats of secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports, aimed at influencing Russia's actions in Ukraine [4]. - Trump's potential sanctions could lead to higher international oil prices, conflicting with his goal of lowering U.S. gasoline prices [5]. - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, making it challenging to predict the next steps in the oil market [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will stabilize around $70 per barrel following the OPEC+ decision, with expectations of a supply surplus beginning in October [3][5]. - The market is advised to monitor geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production policies, and global trade disputes for future price movements [6].

Group 1 - OPEC+ plans to officially approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September during an online meeting, reversing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day implemented by key members like Saudi Arabia and Russia in November 2023 [1][3] - The increase in production is part of a phased plan to lift production cuts, with a cumulative increase of 2.47 million barrels per day since April, approaching 2.5% of global demand [3] - The decision to accelerate production exceeds market expectations, indicating OPEC+ is moving faster to regain market share and normalize idle capacity [3][4] Group 2 - The UAE has been vocal about its production quota being too low and has invested to increase its actual capacity to over 4 million barrels per day, with plans to raise its quota by 300,000 barrels per day by September [3] - The aggressive production increase by OPEC+ has put downward pressure on international oil prices, with Brent crude futures falling over 15% since April [4] - OPEC+ aims to fully restore production levels by September 2025, but uncertainties remain regarding the release of remaining idle capacity [4][5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level. With Trump's official announcement of the US - Japan trade agreement this morning, the overall financial market sentiment warmed up, and oil prices recovered to some extent. The decline in API crude oil inventory was small, while the refined oil inventory in the downstream increased significantly, which put some pressure on the optimistic demand during the subsequent summer peak season. Short - term oil prices will continue to oscillate. The short - term trading range is between 502 - 510, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. - The short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up the market, and in the medium - to - long - term, it awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals, basis, inventory, and other factors are all neutral. The short - term trading range is between 502 - 510, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, under which Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and pay a 15% reciprocal tariff. The details of the agreement, especially regarding whether Japanese automobiles and parts will be exempted from the 25% tariff, have not been fully disclosed. Japan's government officials said that Japan and the US have agreed to reduce the automobile tariff to 15% [5]. - The Canadian Prime Minister tried to lower the outside world's expectations of reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days, saying that the negotiation was difficult due to the US government's changing goals. Trump has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement if an agreement is not reached by August 1st [5]. - API data showed that for the week ending July 18th, US crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 314,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.228 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory increased by 3.48 million barrels [5]. 3. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to Rise**: The short - term geopolitical conflicts intensify, and the summer demand begins to increase [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the trade relations between the US and other economies remain tense, and Iran and Israel have ceased fire [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Compared with the previous value, the settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all decreased, with declines of - 0.90%, - 0.97%, - 1.69%, and - 0.39% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of British Brent, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all decreased compared with the previous value, with declines of - 0.79%, - 2.81%, - 0.17%, - 0.58%, and - 0.38% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show the changes in US crude oil inventory over time. As of July 18th, API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels; as of July 11th, EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels [10][12]. 5. Position Data - As of July 15th, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, and the net long positions of Brent crude oil increased [3]. - The data on the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds show their changes over time [14][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a significant decline in oil prices, with SC crude oil futures dropping nearly 15% from their June highs, as geopolitical risk premiums have been rapidly eliminated [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary reason for the decline in oil prices is attributed to global trade tensions and increased production by OPEC+, resulting in a more relaxed supply-demand balance, with seasonal demand already priced in [1][2]. - OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, driven by low global oil inventories, which have remained relatively low since 2020 [1][2]. - The ongoing restructuring of global trade routes and regional disparities in oil inventories have contributed to lower stock levels in key delivery hubs [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that as geopolitical tensions ease, the market will refocus on fundamental factors, with OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kazakhstan accelerating production [3][4]. - In the absence of significant demand growth, the increased supply from OPEC+ is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, with potential for Brent and WTI crude futures to break above $80 per barrel, while SC crude may exceed 580 yuan per barrel [3][4]. - The market is likely to experience substantial inventory accumulation in the third and fourth quarters, with a prevailing narrative of "weak demand + oversupply" shaping oil pricing for the latter half of the year [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report - Report Date: July 4, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the possible resumption of Israeli attacks on Iran, oil prices rose again. EIA data showed that as of the week ending on the 27th, US crude oil and gasoline inventories both increased more than expected, while diesel inventories continued to decline. In the supply side, most of the 8 OPEC member countries achieved the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production. In the demand side, the expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited because of the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana. The market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental-driven, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.18% to close at $67.45 per barrel, with a trading volume of 24.54 million lots; Brent crude oil futures rose 3.04% to close at $69.15 per barrel, with a trading volume of 38.45 million lots; SC crude oil futures rose 1.56% to close at 506.3 yuan per barrel, with a trading volume of 17.94 million lots [6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: OPEC member countries basically completed the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Trump's concerns about high oil prices may lead to a further increase in OPEC+ production. The expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the market will still maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year because of the expected supply growth in other countries [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia plans to increase its daily crude oil production to 1 million barrels. - Last week, US imports of crude oil from Nigeria reached the highest level since August 2019. - In June, the production of 12 OPEC member countries increased by 360,000 barrels per day to an average of 28 million barrels per day, with about two-thirds of the increase contributed by Saudi Arabia [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, and spot prices, with data sources including CFTC, Wind, and Bloomberg [10][11][18]