交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-24原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2601： 1.基本面：四名美国官员告诉路透，随着特朗普政府加大对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府的施压，美国准 备在未来几天内启动新阶段的委内瑞拉相关行动；美国上周日表示在制定乌克兰停战方案方面取得重 大进展，但在如何保障基辅安全这一关键问题上仍未达成共识，各方始终对俄罗斯构成的威胁忧心忡 忡；欧洲和其他西方国家领导人周六表示，美国提出的和平计划是结束俄乌战争谈判的基础，但需要" 额外的工作"；中性 2.基差：11月21日，阿曼原油现货价为62.98美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为62.06美元/桶，基差 26.20元/桶， ...

经历前期阴跌行情，10月下旬以来国际原油价格有所回暖。截至11月18日，国内原油期货主力合约2601 最高报466.2元/桶，较一月前低点回涨超7%。 消息面上，11月欧佩克+产油国开会审议全球石油市场形势并制定未来产量计划。会议决定，欧佩克 +产油国12月份再度增产13.7万桶/日，增产幅度符合市场预期。不过会议同时声明，欧佩克+产油国决 定暂停2026年一季度的增产计划。产油国暂停增产的消息令市场对供应过剩的担忧情绪适度降低，并进 一步减弱对油市的利空影响。 "2020年历史性负油价之后，为了实现原油市场供需再平衡，欧佩克+减产同盟国开始并长时间维持减 产政策。随着供需状况转变，欧佩克+减产政策经历多番调整。结合欧佩克+部长级会议以及主要产油 国的会议决议来看，2024年以来，欧佩克+减产政策可以简化为两个部分：一是自愿减产220万桶/日， 二是联合减产165万桶/日。欧佩克+减产政策的恢复计划（即增产计划）于2024年开始酝酿，直至2025 年才落地实施。"卓创资讯分析师桑潇表示。 分析指出，产油国增产利空油市，但结合实际情况来看，利空影响受到两方面的制约，一是部分产油国 本身产能不足，实际产量难以匹配 ...

source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 南华期货原油产业周报 2025年11月3日 —— 短期利好出尽，基本面回归主导 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油市场的核心矛盾在于短期地缘与宏观利好已基本消化，市场驱动进入真空期，关注点重回基本面但 压力未获缓解，叠加 OPEC + 会议不确定性，致使盘面陷入低位震荡且存在回落风险。此前，地缘风险利 好、中美经贸关系改善及美联储降息预期等宏观利好已悉数落地，金融市场未再解读出强支撑，原油盘面形 成 60-65 美元新震荡区间，波动重心较前期明显下移，情绪溢价仍需回落修复。后续关键变量集中在 11 月 2 日 OPEC + 会议，伊拉克寻求将原油配额从 440 万桶 / 日提升至 550 万桶 / 日，其过往 "不良记录" 可能阻碍 会议达成一致，引发结果超预期风险。整体来看，在无新突发利好的情况下，基本面压制未缓解，原油短线 大概率在震荡区间内继续回落，消化前期情绪溢价。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Core View: Bullish factors are gradually digested, and oil prices are mainly bearish [5] Group 2: Market Analysis - OPEC+ Situation: OPEC+ production release is moderate, but member countries decide to continue increasing production, deepening concerns about market supply surplus. There is still a possibility of accelerated production increase. Kuwait's oil minister says OPEC is ready to increase production when demand rises. Saudi Arabia previously wanted to speed up production increase but was opposed by Russia. Iraq is negotiating its crude oil production quota [6][16][18] - Russia Sanctions: Russia is sanctioned again, leading to strong short - term market wait - and - see sentiment. Attention is on the implementation of later sanctions. Short - term, some purchases may shift to Middle Eastern countries [6][23][24] - US Crude Oil Production: US crude oil production grows slowly, and the growth space in the 4th quarter is relatively limited. The Dallas Fed survey shows weak exploration and development willingness and rising costs [6][25][27] - Macro - economic Situation: Sino - US trade negotiations are advancing, easing the macro - atmosphere to some extent, but the market reaction after the leaders' meeting is flat. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp, but the direct boost to oil prices is limited in the short term [6] - Supply - demand Balance: EIA and IEA significantly raise global crude oil supply expectations in their monthly reports. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the market inventory accumulation speed accelerates. The inventory accumulation in the 4th quarter of this year and the 1st quarter of 2026 is adjusted from 190/255 barrels per day to 265/300 barrels per day [6][40][42] Group 3: Market Performance in October - Price Trend: International oil prices reversed in a V - shape in October. At the beginning, prices fluctuated narrowly. After Trump's remarks on tariffs and sanctions, prices first fell and then rebounded. As of October 28, SC closed at 464.1 yuan/barrel with a 3.95% decline; Brent closed at $64.85/barrel with a 0.73% decline; WTI closed at $61.26/barrel with a 0.63% decline [13][14] Group 4: Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Outlook: Bullish factors are gradually digested. Under the pressure of oversupply, oil prices may decline again. The implementation of US sanctions on Russia needs attention. In the short term, the market may increase purchases of Middle Eastern crude oil, supporting relevant oil types and SC to strengthen relatively [52][53] - Operation Suggestions: In the short term, focus on long domestic and short foreign positions. In the medium term, maintain a bearish view, try short on rebounds or conduct reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to OPEC+ meetings [53]

南华期货原油产业周报 2025年10月27日 —— 短期地缘利好，警惕回落风险 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油市场核心矛盾是短期地缘风险利好与中长期基本面利空的博弈，且天平向利空倾斜。短期美国对俄 石油公司制裁、委内瑞拉风险传闻等地缘消息，推动布油短线涨 2-3 美元，但风险仅处消息扰动阶段，未升 级为冲突或断供，参考 2025 年 1 月制裁案例，涨幅或已到位，若局势不升级，下周恐回落。中长期看，俄 罗斯可调整供油流向应对制裁，OPEC也准备好增产，供应充足，且需求端乏力，相较 7-9 月基本面利空增 强，即便短期震荡，波动重心也将下移，地缘利好难改中长期趋势。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major oil executives maintain an optimistic outlook on the medium to long-term oil market, expecting demand growth and falling oil prices to alleviate the current oversupply situation and rebalance supply and demand [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - Executives from major oil companies and U.S. shale regions believe that when WTI prices fall below $60, U.S. shale oil production will decrease [1] - TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne states that while the short-term oil market fundamentals appear weak, the medium-term outlook is positive due to declining production rates and sustained global oil demand [1] - Pouyanne identifies $60 per barrel as the critical point where non-OPEC oil production, particularly shale oil, will begin to decline, predicting a significant reduction in non-OPEC supply starting mid-2026 [1] Group 2: U.S. Oil Production Predictions - ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance suggests that if WTI prices remain in the $60-$65 range, U.S. oil production may stabilize, with a potential increase of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day this year [2] - However, if prices drop to the $50-$60 range, production may peak or even slightly decline, raising concerns about how to meet market demand through conventional oil as unconventional supply reaches its limit [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have declined due to various factors, including trade tensions between the US and China, which have created a volatile market environment. As of October 17, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $61.29 and $57.15 per barrel, respectively [2][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in global oil supply, with the IEA forecasting a more severe oversupply situation for the coming year [2]. - The US crude oil production reached 13.636 million barrels per day, showing a slight increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week [2][50]. - The report notes a decrease in US refinery crude processing to 15.130 million barrels per day, down by 1.167 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 85.70%, a decline of 6.7 percentage points [2][62]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $61.29 per barrel, down $1.44 (-2.30%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $57.15 per barrel, down $1.75 (-2.97%) [2][19]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of October 13, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 373, an increase of 2 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained stable at 132 [2][29]. Crude Oil Supply - The US crude oil production was reported at 13.636 million barrels per day, with the number of active drilling rigs remaining at 418 [2][50]. Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing decreased to 15.130 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 85.70% [2][62]. Crude Oil Inventory - As of October 10, 2025, total US crude oil inventories stood at 832 million barrels, an increase of 4.284 million barrels (+0.52%) from the previous week [2][63]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [2][3].

OPEC+或于十月继续增产，原油维持震荡 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年9月26日，SC主力合约小幅上涨0.14%至491.3元/ 桶，WTI微跌0.05%至65.19美元/桶，Brent微升0.03%至68.82美元/桶。价 差方面，SC-Brent小幅收窄0.01美元至0.04美元/桶，SC-WTI价差走强0.04 美元至3.67美元/桶，Brent-WTI价差扩大0.05美元至3.63美元/桶，显示欧 美市场对轻质原油的溢价增强。SC连续-连3价差进一步走弱0.8元至-4.3 元/桶，反映近月合约承压。 持仓与成交 ：洲际交易所数据显示，截至9月23日当周，布伦特原油投机 净多头头寸减少11,592手至220,579手，柴油净多头头寸削减3,817手至 114,507手，显示市场对能源品后市的谨慎情绪升温。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：OPEC+可能于10月5日会议上批准至少13.7万桶/日的增产，叠加 伊拉克库尔德地区石油出口恢复，预计未来原油供应边际增加。但乌克兰 对俄罗斯楚瓦什输油泵站的袭击及炼油厂攻击事件，或加剧俄罗斯原油出 口的不确定性。此外， ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年9月28日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：单边观望，轻仓过节 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：单边观望，轻仓过节 IEA报告 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-23原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 原油2511： 4.盘面：20日均线偏下，价格在均线下方；偏空 1.基本面：根据联合组织数据倡议(JODI)公布的数据，沙特阿拉伯7月原油出口量降至599.4万桶/日，创 下了四个月以来的最低水平；官员表示，伊拉克石油部将于周二开始重启库尔德斯坦地区的原油出口 程序，预计将在48小时内恢复通过管道向土耳其出口原油；科威特石油部长表示，科威特当前原油产 能已达到320万桶/日，这是该国十余年来公布的最高产能评估数据；中性 2.基差：9月22日，阿曼原油现货价为68.99元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.82元/桶，基差30元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至9月12日当周API原油库存减少342万桶，预期 ...