机构：长江证券 研究员：于旭辉/魏杏梓 九兴控股：全球高端鞋履隐形冠军九兴控股为全球领先的高端鞋履制造商，为Nike、Prada、Balenciaga 等全球顶尖品牌提供以ODM 为主的制造服务。公司在2010-2018 年持续进行国内→东南亚的产能转 移，导致订单受限、利润波动，2019 年管理层关键换班开启新增长周期，聚焦高端化转型与东南亚产 能布局优化，利润率及资本回报率得到显著回升，2024 年公司实现营收111 亿元、归母净利润12 亿 元，规模体量位居国内制鞋二线梯队，但利润率处于行业较优水平。 行业：需求存结构性机会，供给格局长期向好 多元产能布局，生产效率领先。公司建立以国内为枢纽、东南亚为主要生产基地的制造体系，2024 年 中国/越南/亚洲其他地区产能占比分别为24%/52%/20%。员工生产熟练度领先同业，人均出货量业内仅 次于华利，且在持续推进自动化提升效率，构建了与全球化产能深度适配的本地化供应体系。反映至经 营层面，公司劳动力转化效率优，综合所得税率处于业内最低，人均创收、创利均显著领先同业。 投资：重启成长，估值有望抬升 需求端，目前美国服装行业位于去库尾声，运动板块多数品牌库存 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of mid-single to double digits in volume growth, supported by increased orders from existing customers and new customer acquisitions. The expansion in Indonesia and Bangladesh is anticipated to contribute to stable revenue growth. Profitability is expected to improve due to enhanced efficiency in new factories, with a long-term potential for net profit margin enhancement through product mix improvement and cost optimization. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $160 million, $170 million, and $190 million, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times. Given the high visibility of orders, profit improvement potential, stable customer mix, and high dividend yield, the current valuation is considered low, with a projected dividend yield of 6.9% in 2025 at a 75% payout ratio [3][10]. Company Overview - The company is a leading high-end footwear manufacturer, providing ODM services primarily for top global brands such as Nike, Prada, and Balenciaga. It has undergone a strategic shift towards high-end product manufacturing and optimized production capacity in Southeast Asia since 2019, resulting in significant improvements in profit margins and capital returns. In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.2 billion yuan, positioning it within the second tier of domestic footwear manufacturers while maintaining a favorable profit margin [6][19]. Industry Analysis - The demand side of the industry is witnessing structural opportunities, with the U.S. apparel sector nearing the end of inventory destocking. Most brands in the sports segment have healthy inventory levels, although the retail recovery trend remains unclear. The high-end segment is expected to see a performance rebound by Q3 2025, with the personal luxury goods market anticipated to return to moderate growth next year, benefiting related suppliers [6][47]. Company Quality - The company focuses on high-end manufacturing, establishing a differentiated competitive advantage while achieving superior pricing (over 200 yuan) and profitability (gross margin of 20%-25%). High R&D spending and competitive salary levels support its leading design and development capabilities, with a significant increase in high-end customer numbers. The sports segment, which is currently thriving, is expected to provide strong order certainty and profitability. The company has diversified its customer base, with Nike orders accounting for nearly 40% of total orders, ensuring stable growth [9][10][19]. Production Efficiency - The company has established a manufacturing system centered in China, with major production bases in Southeast Asia. By 2024, the production capacity distribution is expected to be 24% in China, 52% in Vietnam, and 20% in other Asian regions. The company boasts superior labor productivity, with per capita output second only to a major competitor, and is continuously enhancing automation to improve efficiency [9][10][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading high-end footwear manufacturer with a strong design and development capability, benefiting from scarce production capacity in Southeast Asia. It has established deep partnerships with renowned international brands such as Nike, Balenciaga, Prada, and UGG, covering a diverse range of athletic, luxury, fashion, and casual brands. The average selling price (ASP) for 2024 is projected to be $28.4, significantly above industry standards, with a diversified production layout that is rare in the market [1][4] - Despite external disruptions such as tariffs, the company has secured a robust order book for Q1-3, with expectations for improved order visibility in Q4 due to positive developments in US-China trade negotiations. The company anticipates maintaining mid-single-digit growth in shipment volume for the year, with ASP remaining stable [2][4] - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion, particularly in Indonesia and Bangladesh, with expectations of short-term fluctuations in profit margins due to new factory ramp-up and employee training. However, the long-term growth trend remains positive [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2027 are as follows: $1.545 billion in 2024, $1.621 billion in 2025 (up 4.94%), $1.743 billion in 2026 (up 7.48%), and $1.867 billion in 2027 (up 7.12%). Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be $171.1 million in 2024, $165.1 million in 2025 (down 3.47%), $184.9 million in 2026 (up 11.98%), and $204.4 million in 2027 (up 10.56%) [5][11] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2025, with a commitment to a $60 million share buyback or special dividend, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% [4][11]