Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve long-term excess returns through internal efficiency improvements and external channel and product category expansions, despite facing short-term performance pressure due to channel reforms [1] Group 1: Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with revised net profit estimates for 2025-2027 at 956 million, 1.211 billion, and 1.489 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -42%, +27%, and +23% respectively [1] - The target price is set at 12.45 RMB, based on a 24.9X PE ratio for 2026, referencing comparable companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [1] Group 2: Management Changes - The company announced the resignation of Zhang Wei as Executive Director and Chairman, with Gao Li appointed to these roles effective January 14, 2026 [1] - Gao Li has extensive experience in the beverage sector, having worked nearly 10 years at China Resources Beverage and served as CFO from 2012 to 2020, aligning with the company's goals for management reform and efficiency improvements [1] Group 3: Channel and Product Development - Starting in 2025, the company will address high channel inventory and management issues by increasing investment in channel management and transitioning from large to small distributors [2] - The company anticipates a recovery in its packaged water business and growth in its beverage segment, with new products like herbal drinks and sugar-free teas expected to drive sales [2] Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company is making steady progress in transforming its production, marketing, and operations centers, which includes increasing self-production rates and optimizing logistics to reduce transportation costs [2] - The new chairman's financial background is expected to enhance management efficiency and improve profitability over time [2]

管理焕新，否极泰来可期 华润饮料(2460) 华润饮料（2460）更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 10.47 | | 徐洋(分析师) | 021-38032032 | xuyang6@gtht.com | S0880520120008 | | | 本报告导读： 在管理改善的背景下，公司向内提效率，向外扩渠道、扩品类，中长期超额收益可 期。 投资要点： 风险提示：行业竞争加剧；成长异常上行；食品安全风险 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E ...

包装水逐步企稳，饮料新品茁壮成长 2025年起受累于渠道库存阶段性偏高以及渠道管理粗放等历史遗留问题影响，公司开启针对渠道端的改 革，一方面加大费用投放力度缓解渠道库存压力，另一方面逐步拆大商为小商、同时招募特渠、饮品经 销商，以提升经销商团队的专业性，展望2026年，在渠道问题逐步解决的背景下，该行看好包装水主业 轻装上阵、焕发新机;饮料业务板块方面，至本清润系列草本饮料持续放量，"魔力"运动饮料、"佐味茶 事"无糖茶随着产品的升级迭代蓄势待发，考虑到"怡宝"主品牌所传递的运动、健康概念与草本饮料、 运动饮料及无糖茶潜在用户的诉求相适配，该行看好公司饮料业务持续放量，逐步成长为第二增长引 擎。 向内提效率，盈利能力逐步改善 公司"生产、营销、运营"三大中心改造有条不紊的推进，其中自产率持续提升、铁路/水路/前置仓布局 取代过去单一的公路运输将显著降低运输费用、营销端SKU的持续丰富以及信息化系统的赋能将显著提 升销售费用投放效率。总体而言，在具备财务背景的新董事会主席到任的背景下，该行看好公司由内而 外逐步提升管理效率，从而实现盈利能力的持续提升 风险提示 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持华 ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持华润饮料(02460)"增持"评级，给予目标价12.45元人民币。公司管理层 焕新，高立先生履新，其财务及跨领域管理经验将有力推动渠道精细化和降本增效改革。包装水业务渠 道调整逐步到位，饮料新品凭借"怡宝"健康运动概念持续放量，内部通过提升自产率、优化物流及营销 效率，盈利能力有望持续改善。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 管理焕新 2025年起受累于渠道库存阶段性偏高以及渠道管理粗放等历史遗留问题影响，公司开启针对渠道端的改 革，一方面加大费用投放力度缓解渠道库存压力，另一方面逐步拆大商为小商、同时招募特渠、饮品经 销商，以提升经销商团队的专业性，展望2026年，在渠道问题逐步解决的背景下，该行看好包装水主业 轻装上阵、焕发新机;饮料业务板块方面，至本清润系列草本饮料持续放量，"魔力"运动饮料、"佐味茶 事"无糖茶随着产品的升级迭代蓄势待发，考虑到"怡宝"主品牌所传递的运动、健康概念与草本饮料、 运动饮料及无糖茶潜在用户的诉求相适配，该行看好公司饮料业务持续放量，逐步成长为第二增长引 擎。 向内提效率，盈利能力逐步改善 公司"生产、营销、运营"三大中心改造有条不紊的推进，其中自产率持 ...

风险提示：行业竞争加剧；成长异常上行；食品安全风险 管理焕新，否极泰来可期 华润饮料(2460) 华润饮料（2460）更新报告 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 13,515 | 13,521 | 11,104 | 12,465 | 13,945 | | (+/-)% | 7.1% | 0.0% | -18% | 12% | 12% | | 毛利润 | 6,035 | 6,397 | 5,067 | 5,785 | 6,520 | | 净利润 | 1,329 | 1,637 | 956 | 1,211 | 1,489 | | (+/-)% | 34.3% | 23.1% | -42% | 27% | 23% | | PE | - | 13.08 | 23.11 | 18.25 | 14.84 | | PB | - | 2.19 | 1.86 | 1.70 | 1.53 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at China Resources Beverage, with Gao Li taking over as chairman, comes at a critical time as the company faces performance pressures and intensified industry competition [2][3]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Gao Li, a veteran of the China Resources Group, has been appointed as the new chairman, succeeding Zhang Weitong, who stepped down due to work adjustments [2]. - Gao Li has a strong financial background, having served as the financial director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 and as the general manager of the finance department of China Resources Group since January 2025 [2]. Group 2: Performance Challenges - China Resources Beverage's revenue growth has stagnated, with a reported revenue of 13.52 billion yuan in the year of its IPO, reflecting only a 0.05% increase, while profit growth of 23.12% was primarily due to cost control [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a decline in both revenue and profit, with revenue dropping to 6.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%, and net profit falling to 808 million yuan, down 28.63% [4]. Group 3: Market Competition - The bottled water market has seen significant changes, with competitors like Wahaha and Nongfu Spring impacting China Resources Beverage's sales, particularly in the small-sized bottled water segment [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring's bottled water revenue grew by 10.7% to 9.443 billion yuan, while China Resources Beverage's revenue in the same segment fell by 23.1% to 5.251 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - To diversify its revenue streams, China Resources Beverage has been actively launching new products in tea, juice, and sports drinks, introducing 14 new SKUs in the first half of the previous year [7]. - Despite these efforts, non-water beverage revenue only accounted for approximately 15.4% of total revenue, indicating that the second growth curve has not yet materialized [7]. Group 5: Market Position and Valuation - China Resources Beverage's revenue has remained stagnant around 13.5 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024, with expectations that its total revenue for 2025 will likely be surpassed by competitors like Dongpeng Beverage and Yuanqi Forest [7]. - As of January 19, 2026, the company's stock price had dropped to 10.32 HKD, a decline of 29% from its one-year high and over 38% from its IPO closing price, resulting in a market capitalization of 24.749 billion HKD, down 36.8% from its IPO value [8].

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at China Resources Beverage comes at a critical time as the company faces declining performance and increased competition in the beverage industry [1][3]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Zhang Weitong has stepped down as Chairman of China Resources Beverage due to work adjustments, with Gao Li taking over for a three-year term [1]. - Gao Li has a strong financial background and has previously held key positions within the China Resources Group, including serving as the CFO of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 [1]. Group 2: Performance Challenges - In 2024, China Resources Beverage's revenue growth stagnated, with total revenue at 13.521 billion yuan, reflecting a mere 0.05% increase, while net profit grew by 23.12% mainly due to cost control [3]. - By the first half of 2025, the company experienced a decline in both revenue and profit, with operating income at 6.206 billion yuan, down 18.52% year-on-year, and net profit at 0.805 billion yuan, down 28.63% [3]. - The core packaged water business, which accounts for nearly 90% of revenue, has seen significant declines, particularly in the sales of its flagship product, Yibao [3][5]. Group 3: Market Competition - The competitive landscape in the packaged drinking water market has shifted, with Wahaha regaining market presence and Nongfu Spring launching a low-priced product that negatively impacted Yibao's sales [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring's revenue from packaged drinking water reached 9.443 billion yuan, a 10.7% increase, while China Resources Beverage's water segment revenue fell to 5.251 billion yuan, a 23.1% decline [5]. Group 4: Growth Strategy - China Resources Beverage has been criticized for its reliance on a single product line and has attempted to diversify by launching new products in tea, juice, and sports drinks [6]. - In the first half of 2025, non-water beverage revenue was 0.955 billion yuan, a 21.3% increase, but still only accounted for about 15.4% of total revenue, indicating that a second growth curve has not yet materialized [6]. Group 5: Market Position and Valuation - Competitors like Dongpeng Beverage and Yuanqi Forest are expected to surpass China Resources Beverage in revenue, with Dongpeng projected to exceed 20 billion yuan and Yuanqi Forest anticipating a 26% growth [8]. - China Resources Beverage's stock price has declined significantly, with a closing price of 10.32 HKD on January 19, 2026, down 29% from its peak and over 38% from its IPO price, leading to a market capitalization decrease of 36.8% from its initial value [8].

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beverage has issued a profit warning, expecting a 20% to 30% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, leading to a significant drop in stock price following the announcement [2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 12.124 billion RMB from packaged drinking water in 2024, a decrease of 2.6% compared to 2023, with its revenue share dropping from 92.1% to 89.7% [8] - The beverage segment generated 1.397 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, marking a 30.8% increase, but still only accounted for 10.3% of total revenue [9] Marketing and Strategy - Increased marketing expenditures have led to a higher marketing expense ratio, which has negatively impacted profits. The company has engaged in high-profile marketing strategies, including partnerships with sports events and athletes [3][5] - The company is undergoing channel reforms, shifting from traditional distribution to a more integrated approach, which includes introducing e-commerce and specialized distributors [5][6] Industry Context - The bottled water market in China is experiencing stagnation, with the production volume in 2024 falling below 50% of total beverage production for the first time [7] - Competitors like Nongfu Spring are gaining market share, with their tea beverage segment surpassing bottled water as the primary revenue source [10] Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces significant challenges in its transformation from a bottled water leader to a diversified beverage group, including competition from established brands and the need for product innovation [11][15] - There is a pressing need for the company to enhance its digital and channel strategies to improve market penetration, especially in lower-tier markets [14]