金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 11 月 21 日 外部压力对 A 股影响有限，市场中期向好逻辑未变 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三呈现企稳迹象的 A 股市场，周四再度陷入疲软态势。早盘一度高开上行， 然而午后行情再度走弱，最终全线收跌。可能与外部压力有关（美联储 12 月降 息不确定性及地缘政治因素发酵等），不过，我们认为，其对 A 股的整体影响预 计相对有限。A 股定价核心仍锚定国内基本面，中国经济持续恢复的态势没有改 变，内生增长动力不断增强。同时，政策层面继续保持积极，为市场提供了有力 支撑。 因此，尽管面对短期调整与多方压力，我们认为指数短期调整已近尾声，中 期向好逻辑未变。操作上，踏准板块轮动节奏，采取均衡配置、高抛低吸或是占 优策略。无论是科技成长方向（半导体芯片、泛 AI 主题及机器人行业等），还是 顺周期行业（光伏、电池、储能、化工、煤炭、有色等），亦或是红利股（银行、 公用事业、"大象股"等），尽量选 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huamao Technology is a leading player in the automotive passive safety sector, specializing in the research, production, and processing of automotive airbag fabrics and airbags, with significant advantages in these fields [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Huamao Technology reported revenue of 1.784 billion yuan, ranking 20th out of 41 in the industry, with the industry leader, Huayu Automotive, generating 130.853 billion yuan [2] - The company's net profit for the same period was 162 million yuan, ranking 17th in the industry, while the top performer, Fuyao Glass, achieved a net profit of 7.068 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Huamao Technology's debt-to-asset ratio was 39.72%, lower than the industry average of 42.48%, and an increase from 25.99% in the previous year [3] - The company's gross profit margin stood at 30.34%, higher than the industry average of 22.52%, and slightly up from 29.95% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Management and Shareholder Structure - The chairman, Wu Liming, has a rich background with experience at DuPont and Intel, while the general manager, Zhang Chuqian, received a salary increase to 1.7342 million yuan in 2024 from 1.6062 million yuan in 2023 [4] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 44.49% to 28,500, with an average holding of 11,500 circulating A-shares, a decrease of 30.70% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Moves - Huamao Technology is actively pursuing a second growth curve in the AI sector and plans to expand into semiconductor and computing power manufacturing [5] - The company intends to acquire the remaining equity of Fuchuang Youyue for 1.5 billion yuan to achieve full control, with the controlling shareholder fully subscribing to 950 million yuan in supporting financing [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - The company has shown stable growth in its core automotive passive safety business, with a revenue of 1.784 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.87%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.06% to 172 million yuan due to increased financial expenses and other factors [7]. - The company is actively developing its AI business segment, particularly through acquisitions, which are expected to create a second growth curve. The acquisition of Shenzhen Fuchuang Youyue is a key strategy to enhance capabilities in optical communication and AI-related fields [7]. - The company has a leading market share in domestic automotive passive safety products and is accelerating its overseas expansion, particularly in Vietnam, where it has established a new production base [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,213 million yuan in 2024, 2,556 million yuan in 2025, 3,494 million yuan in 2026, and 4,186 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 7.7%, 15.5%, 36.7%, and 19.8% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 1,026 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 14.6%, 24.6%, 129.0%, and 29.7% respectively [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.84 yuan in 2024 to 3.12 yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's growth trajectory [2][8]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 16.923 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.72%, indicating a solid financial position [3]. - The company has been recognized as a leader in the automotive passive safety sector, having established partnerships with most mainstream domestic vehicle manufacturers [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, although the momentum may weaken, leading to increased volatility and a more balanced investment style [6][19] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 15.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 29.88% in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][13] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a 67.52% increase, followed by telecommunications at 62.61% and electronics at 53.51% [4][14] - The coal sector experienced the largest decline at -7.90%, with food and beverage and oil and petrochemicals also showing negative performance [4][14] Market Logic for Q4 2025 - The macroeconomic environment and monetary policy are crucial variables influencing A-share performance, with a focus on the impact of U.S. tariff policies and domestic economic recovery [5][18] - The demand for stocks is expected to increase due to personal investors reallocating assets towards equities, alongside improvements in public and private fund issuance [5][18] Sector Allocation - Key sectors to watch include: - Pharmaceuticals: Defensive value with recovery potential [6] - Semiconductors: Driven by self-sufficiency logic [6] - Robotics: Strong internal growth drivers [6] - Renewable Energy: Potential for continued rebound [6] - Financials: Benefiting from increased market activity [6] Thematic Investments - Thematic investment opportunities include: - AI: Expansion from hardware to applications [6] - Optical communication modules: Core drivers include AI computing and data center upgrades [6] - Rare earth materials: China's advantages in this sector [6] - Military industry: Potential driven by export attractiveness and geopolitical tensions [6]

Group 1 - The market is expected to undergo a rebalancing process in the fourth quarter, with a shift towards cyclical styles and a recovery in previously lagging sectors [2] - The technology sector is transitioning from a focus on upstream computing hardware to a broader growth pattern across various AI-related segments [2] - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the China A-share market, providing investors with diverse options for exposure [2] Group 2 - The top three sectors with net capital inflow are retail, defense, and comprehensive industries, with inflows of 135.86 billion, 91.49 billion, and 90.69 billion respectively [2] - The overall market saw a trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 199 billion from the previous day [1] - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance, with 2,655 stocks rising, 2,572 stocks falling, and 201 stocks remaining unchanged [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend in the first three quarters, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3,800 points, led by technology growth stocks, while consumer and cyclical stocks performed poorly [1] - According to WIND statistics, only the coal and oil & petrochemical sectors declined among the 31 primary sub-industries in the first three quarters, while the other 29 sectors saw increases, with the top five performing sectors being communication, electronics, non-ferrous metals, media, and comprehensive, all exceeding a 60% increase [1] - The communication sector had a remarkable increase of 105%, and the electronics sector surged by 87%, significantly outperforming other sectors [1] Group 2 - The hospitality, liquor, and food sectors showed weak performance this year, with major companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Kweichow Moutai, and Yili Group experiencing declines of over 12%, 2%, and 6% respectively [1] - The cyclical sectors, including coal and oil & petrochemical, also underperformed, with China Shenhua down 7% and both China Petroleum and China Petrochemical facing declines, the latter by nearly 20% [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, market styles are expected to rebalance, with cyclical styles entering a trading window and previously lagging sectors likely to see a rebound [2] - Historical data from Dongwu Securities indicates that sectors that performed well in the first three quarters typically rank lower in the fourth quarter, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [2] Group 4 - Certain low-valuation and early-cycle sectors are expected to perform better in the fourth quarter, with a historical probability of over 65% for these sectors to rise, and a 60% chance of outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] - Analysts suggest that the technology sector will remain a key focus, with investment themes coexisting, and internal rotations within growth sectors expected to accelerate, particularly in AI applications, solid-state batteries, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant bull market since September 24, 2024, with over 1,400 stocks doubling in price, representing more than 26% of the total 5,324 stocks listed [3][8]. Industry Performance Summary - **Communication**: Increased by 124.09%, with 49 stocks doubling, including Shijia Photon and Changxin Bochuang [4]. - **Electronics**: Increased by 121.05%, with 204 stocks doubling, including *ST Yushun and Shenghong Technology [4]. - **Comprehensive**: Increased by 108.05%, with 5 stocks doubling, including Dongyangguang and Yuegui Shares [4]. - **Computers**: Increased by 82.15%, with 121 stocks doubling, including Lian Di Information and Huijin Shares [4]. - **Machinery Equipment**: Increased by 80.80%, with 231 stocks doubling, including Changsheng Bearing and Zhongjian Technology [4]. - **Media**: Increased by 80.60%, with 22 stocks doubling, including ST Huatuo and Giant Network [4]. - **Electric Power Equipment**: Increased by 71.98%, with 128 stocks doubling, including Electric Wind Power and Naconoer [4]. - **Automobile**: Increased by 59.43%, with 112 stocks doubling, including Tianpu Shares and Zhejiang Rongtai [4]. - **Other Industries**: Various other sectors such as defense, environmental protection, and construction materials also saw significant increases, with some industries like coal and oil showing minimal growth [5][8]. Insights from the Past Year - The market is unpredictable, and reversals can happen suddenly. Long-term investment discipline often yields better results than short-term market predictions [6][10]. - Contrarian thinking is crucial for investment success. Opportunities often arise during market pessimism, while caution is needed during market euphoria [11]. - Asset allocation is an effective strategy to mitigate negative emotions and avoid poor decision-making during market volatility [11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies and Industries Involved - **Juxing Technology (巨星科技)** - **Haoyang Co., Ltd. (浩洋股份)** - **Robotics Industry (机器人行业)** Key Points and Arguments Juxing Technology - Juxing Technology benefits from the interest rate cut cycle, which stimulates real estate demand, holding the second-largest global market share in hand tools with potential for doubling growth [1] - The electric tools business is expected to achieve fivefold growth in the next 3-5 years, with a revenue target of $1 billion [2] - The company has completed its inventory reduction process and is now in a normal purchasing and sales phase, which is expected to enhance performance [2] - Q3 performance is anticipated to exceed expectations due to increased demand from supermarkets driven by interest rate cuts [2] - Projected net profits are expected to be 2.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.3 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a 70% growth potential based on a 20x PE valuation [1][3] Haoyang Co., Ltd. - Haoyang has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for six consecutive quarters but is expected to reach a turning point [3] - Orders from the U.S. market have recovered to last year's levels, and the European market is performing well despite tariff increases [3] - The company is gradually increasing its share of free brands, which is expected to enhance profitability, with projections of 250 million yuan in net profit for 2025 and 350-400 million yuan for 2026, indicating an 80% growth potential [3] - The stage lighting industry is experiencing high demand, with concert-related revenues expected to grow significantly [3] Robotics Industry - The robotics sector is anticipated to enter a bull market in Q4, despite recent stock price fluctuations due to concerns over Optimus order confirmations [4] - Key catalysts for the robotics industry include upcoming factory audits, the release of third-generation products, and developments related to Yushu and UBTECH [5] - The market is expected to resonate domestically and internationally, potentially leading to stronger performance than earlier in the year [10] Specific Product Focus - **Dexterous Hands (灵巧手)**: Focus on electronic skin and micro-screws, with Hanwei Technology and Rongtai being notable companies in these areas [6][7] - **Joint Modules (关节模组)**: Emphasis on cycloidal reducers and screws, with companies like Keda Li, Greenland, and Hengli Hydraulic being highlighted for their competitive edge [9] Market Outlook - The upcoming Q4 is expected to see a stronger market resonance compared to earlier in the year, driven by multiple catalysts including new product launches and order fulfillment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities suggests that "hot money" is likely to flow towards sectors with undeniable industrial trends, particularly within the broader AI domain, where several sub-sectors remain undervalued due to limited short-term catalysts and insufficient bullish narratives [1] Summary by Categories - **Investment Opportunities** - There are several sub-sectors within the broader AI industry that are currently at relatively low levels due to short-term catalysts being limited and insufficient accumulation of bullish narratives [1] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns if unexpected industrial events occur, such as technological breakthroughs or the emergence of new standout products, which could help build bullish narratives and consolidate funding consensus [1] - **Recommended Sectors for Investment** - The report recommends actively positioning in the AI industry chain, particularly in sectors that are experiencing stagnation, as a form of "call option" [1] - Specific areas of focus include storage, AIDC-related supporting facilities, and AI applications, which encompass but are not limited to Agent technology, AI in healthcare, humanoid robots, edge AI, and intelligent driving [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and outlook of the Bosera New Energy Theme Mixed A Fund, which reported a profit of 1.9557 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net value growth rate of 2.49% [2][3] - As of September 3, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 0.837 yuan, and its scale reached 70.6037 million yuan [2][30] - The fund manager expresses optimism for the second half of 2025, particularly favoring growth assets in the context of liquidity easing, with a focus on "pan-AI" assets and the electric power electronics sector transitioning into AI [3] Group 2 - The fund's recent performance metrics indicate a three-month net value growth rate of 22.73%, a six-month growth rate of 14.50%, and a one-year growth rate of 40.59%, positioning it favorably among comparable funds [6] - The fund's weighted average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 20.64 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 36.17 times, indicating a potentially undervalued position [11] - The weighted revenue growth rate for the fund's holdings is 0.2%, and the weighted net profit growth rate is 0.3% for the first half of 2025, reflecting modest growth [19] Group 3 - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio stands at -0.4169, ranking it 91 out of 120 comparable funds, indicating a relatively lower risk-adjusted return [24] - The fund's maximum drawdown over the past three years is 50.9%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q2 2022 at 22.51% [26] - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a total of 5,216 holders, with individual investors holding 100% of the shares, and the fund's turnover rate for the last six months was approximately 530.32% [34][37]