Core Viewpoint - The recent turbulence in the bond market has led to significant redemptions in bond funds, with over 70% of bond funds experiencing net value declines, while the stock market has seen increased inflows and a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 3600 points [2][6][12]. Redemption Wave - The bond market has experienced substantial volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.64% in early July to a peak of 1.75% by the end of July, before retreating to around 1.70% in early August [5][6]. - In late July, over 73% of bond funds reported negative performance, with 2821 out of 3872 funds showing losses [6][7]. - Notably, the Industrial Bank's convertible bond fund saw a net value decline of 2.13%, while other funds also reported significant losses [7][8]. Institutional Behavior - The majority of bond fund investors are institutions, particularly bank wealth management products, which have been significant contributors to the recent large-scale redemptions [9][10]. - Following a significant redemption event on July 24, the People's Bank of China intervened with a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan to stabilize the market, which helped to halt the negative feedback loop [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that the redemptions were primarily defensive maneuvers by banks to prevent liquidity crises, rather than a sign of widespread capital flight [10][12]. Market Dynamics - The "see-saw effect" between the stock and bond markets has been a key factor in the recent adjustments, with rising stock market valuations attracting funds away from bonds [12][13]. - The overall risk appetite in the market has increased, leading to a shift in capital from bond funds to equity funds, particularly as the stock market continues to perform well [12][13]. - The bond market's performance has been further pressured by external factors, including rising commodity prices and negative sentiment stemming from economic indicators [13][14]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent turbulence, analysts believe that the bond market is stabilizing, with institutions beginning to resume subscriptions to bond funds as redemption pressures ease [16][17]. - The introduction of a new tax policy on bond interest income starting August 8, 2025, is expected to influence public fund raising positively, as banks may increase their outsourced investments in bond funds [18][19]. - Analysts recommend a balanced approach, suggesting that investors consider "fixed income plus" strategies in the current environment, while also being mindful of the ongoing volatility in both the stock and bond markets [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - In the current low-interest and volatile market environment, fixed income plus (固收+) products are favored by investors for their balance of yield and stability. These products typically allocate at least 80% of assets to bond-related assets for stable returns, while the "+" portion allows for flexible investments in convertible bonds, stocks, IPOs, and commodities to enhance returns while controlling volatility and drawdown [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The article introduces two actively managed bond funds primarily investing in pure bonds and convertible bonds, highlighting their differing risk-return characteristics due to variations in portfolio strategies [1]. - Huatai Baoxing Zunhe Bond Fund has been managed by Zhang Ting since November 2017, while Everbright Baodexin Zengli Yield Bond Fund has been managed by Huang Bo since October 2019. Both managers have similar backgrounds in managing insurance and pension products, focusing initially on pure bonds and convertible bonds before expanding to multi-asset management [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Process - Huatai Baoxing Zunhe Bond Fund aims for absolute returns with low volatility, while Everbright Baodexin Zengli Yield Bond Fund targets relative returns, striving to exceed the benchmark yield of the China All Bond Index annually [7]. - Both funds utilize a top-down approach for pure bond allocation, assessing macroeconomic trends and adjusting the allocation of bond types based on liquidity and credit spread changes. Huatai Baoxing typically maintains a credit bond allocation of 45%-85%, while Everbright Baodexin targets 70%-80% [8]. Group 3: Performance Comparison - Over the past year, Huatai Baoxing Zunhe Bond Fund achieved an annualized return of 4.62%, ranking in the top 8% of its category, while Everbright Baodexin Zengli Yield Bond Fund returned 4.80%, ranking in the top 7% [10]. - In the last three years, Huatai Baoxing's standard deviation was 2.07%, ranking in the top 8%, while Everbright Baodexin's was higher at 4.32%, ranking in the top 56% [10]. Group 4: Fee Structure - Both funds have comprehensive fee rates below the industry average, with Everbright Baodexin Zengli Yield Bond Fund having slightly lower fees than Huatai Baoxing Zunhe Bond Fund, primarily due to lower trading costs [11].

Macro Strategy - In Q2 2025, the overall scale of fixed income + funds showed net subscriptions, with significant growth in primary and secondary bond funds, while convertible bond fund scale decreased noticeably [1][9] - The allocation of major asset classes indicates a reduction in the proportion of rights-bearing positions, with an increase in bond and cash assets, while flexible allocation funds increased their stock and convertible bond positions [1][9] - The overall position of public funds in convertible bonds slightly decreased by 0.08 percentage points, while fixed income + funds decreased by 0.54 percentage points, with only convertible bond funds increasing by 0.77 percentage points [1][9] - The concentration of holdings in fixed income + funds decreased, with overweights in basic chemicals, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and transportation [1][9] - Fixed income + funds continued to overweight equity bonds, increasing allocations to balanced bonds and large-cap AAA-rated bonds [1][9] Fixed Income Engineering - Key factors influencing the growth rate of bond ETFs include yield, maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, market duration preference, and index tracking accuracy [2][10] - The correlation between bond ETF scale growth and yield is positive, indicating that higher yields generally lead to higher scale growth [10][12] - Maximum drawdown and Sharpe ratio also show significant correlations with bond ETF scale growth, suggesting that better risk management and performance lead to increased inflows [10][12] Company Analysis: 瑞鹄模具 (002997) - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.662 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.30%, and a net profit of 227 million yuan, up 40.33% [4][12] - The automotive manufacturing equipment business contributed significantly, with a backlog of orders amounting to 4.38 billion yuan, a 13.59% increase from the previous year [4][12] - The company plans to issue 880 million yuan in convertible bonds to expand its R&D and production capacity in lightweight components for new energy vehicles [4][12] Company Analysis: 中国汽研 (601965) - The company is a leading automotive technology research and service platform, with a projected revenue of 5.47 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [5][13] - The implementation of L2 national standards is expected to significantly expand the market for mandatory vehicle inspections, potentially increasing the market size by 50% [5][14] - The company has invested over 2.3 billion yuan in its headquarters and plans to enhance its testing capabilities to capture more market share in the third-party testing certification field [5][14] Company Analysis: 科达利 (002850) - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.8 to 2.1 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% to 20% [6][15] - The company is expanding its product line in robotics and has established a joint venture to produce harmonic reducers, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [6][15] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its operational advantages and the potential growth of its robotics business [6][15] Company Analysis: 博瑞医药 (688166) - The company is focusing on the development of oral peptide formulations, with its BGM0504 injection showing promising results in clinical trials [7][16] - The company has extended the lock-up period for its major shareholder's capital increase to 48 months, indicating confidence in its future prospects [7][16] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 260 million yuan, with a strong emphasis on the potential of its oral formulations to capture market share [7][16]

Performance Insights - In Q1 2025, convertible bond funds achieved a median return of 3.48%, outperforming pure bond funds which had a median return of -0.19%[1] - The first quarter saw significant growth in the scale of convertible bond funds, reaching 98.4 billion CNY, an increase of 3.6% from the previous quarter[2] - The excess return of convertible bond funds was highlighted, with a 25th percentile excess return of 1.72%[8] Fund Size and Positioning - The scale of first and second-tier bond funds increased by 331 billion CNY and 871 billion CNY, reaching 7686 billion CNY and 7692 billion CNY respectively in Q1 2025[2] - Convertible bond fund positions increased by 0.32 percentage points to 91.24%, marking a historical high[2] - Traditional bond funds saw a reduction in convertible bond positions, with first-tier bond funds decreasing by 0.04 percentage points to 8.65%[22] Market Trends and Strategies - Public funds focused on increasing positions in sectors like AI and photovoltaic components while reducing exposure to banks and brokerages[34] - The overall market environment in April 2025 is characterized by uncertainties, prompting a cautious approach among fund managers[3] - The preference for lower-risk bond funds is driven by banks' risk appetite and capital usage considerations[23] Risk Factors - Potential risks include accelerated style rotation in equity markets and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules[4]

自2014年以来，政策利率和市场利率逐步进入下行通道。2020年疫情的爆发加速了这一趋势，而 2024年以来在全球降息的大背景下，国内利率下行的节奏进一步加快。 具体来看，1年期和5年期 贷款市场报价利率（LPR）分别从2019年底的4.15%和4.8%，逐步降低至目前的3.1%和3.6%；公 开市场7天期逆回购操作利率也从2.5%降至1.5%；中期借贷便利（MLF）利率也有多次调整，从 2019年底的3.25%逐步降低至目前的2%。 2024年12月9日，中央政治局会议中将货币政策基调 从"稳健"转变为"适度宽松"，这是自2011年以来的首次调整，市场普遍预期央行2025年将采取更 大力度的降息政策。 导语 在经历了由疫情引发的、起伏多变的政策环境后，全球多家央行已陆续开启降息周期。回首此前 动荡的几年，众多央行先是出于应对危机的考量，将政策利率下调至历史低位，随后却在严峻的 通胀压力下一路加息，将利率升至数十年来的高位。所幸的是，海外通胀压力已逐步得到缓解。 在此背景下，主要央行的有序降息再度被提上日程——尽管时间上稍晚于市场预期，降息幅度也 可能相对温和。 与全球多数经济体近几年的利率走势不同，中国自2 ...