投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-25 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 ...

本周21只新基金发行 具体来看，周一（11月24日）是新基金发行的关键日，本周21只新发基金中15只扎堆在周一发行，占本周新基金的七成以上；周二、周五无新基金启动募 集，周三、周四分别有2只、4只基金开始认购。 从认购天数来看，本周新基金中，认购天数最长为三个月，来自恒生前海成长动力、大摩添益等。中邮北证50成份指数增强、招商资管中证机器人指数紧 随其后；富国稳健双景认购天数为21天；国联稳健鑫益、东方红中证全指指数增强等认购天数为19天。 整体来看，21只新基金平均认购天数为23.29天，较此前有所拉长。 业内认为，这或与近期市场行情步入调整有关。尤其上周，在美联储降息预期减弱、全球流动性收缩，以及地缘政治冲突等因素影响下，全球股市出现较 大波动。 【导读】本周21只新基金启动募集，权益基金为主力 本周（11月24日—11月28日）5个交易日，将有21只新基金登台亮相，面向投资者公开发行。市场步入调整期，权益基金虽仍为新基金发行主力，但占比 较此前有所下滑，多只"固收+"品种强势登场。 从基金类型看，本周新基金中权益类基金仍是主力军，共有11只基金属于此类型，占本周新基金总数的半数以上，但占比相对此前有所下 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the performance of the electronic sector, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector holdings reaching a historical high of 40% [12][12][12] - The report indicates that the electronic sector's profit growth is expected to be robust, with a projected net profit growth of 54% in 2025, followed by 34% and 25% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [12][12][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring PPI (Producer Price Index) trends, as a shift from negative to positive growth could influence market style changes, favoring value stocks over growth stocks [12][12][12] Group 2 - The report on Aofei Data (300738) indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 1.824 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, and a net profit of 145 million yuan, up 37.3% [13][13][13] - Aofei Data's gross margin improved to 35% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 9.4 percentage points year-on-year, with a further increase to 37.6% in Q3 [13][13][13] - The report notes that Aofei Data's asset and liability structure shows strong delivery potential for data centers, with new fixed assets amounting to 3.161 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [13][13][13] Group 3 - The report on Jinlei Co., Ltd. (300443) states that the company achieved a gross margin of 24.63% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.88 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin reaching 26.41% [15][15][15] - The report indicates that the company is expanding its high-end transmission equipment market, with a focus on free forging products, which have seen a compound annual growth rate of 57% over the past three years [15][15][15] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinlei Co., Ltd., projecting net profits of 447 million yuan, 652 million yuan, and 758 million yuan for 2025-2027 [15][15][15] Group 4 - The report on Hisense Visual (600060) indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 42.83 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 1.629 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% [18][18][18] - Hisense Visual's market share in high-end televisions remains strong, with a 41.65% retail volume share in the 100-inch and above market [18][18][18] - The report maintains a profit forecast for Hisense Visual, expecting net profits of 2.5 billion yuan, 2.757 billion yuan, and 3.012 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [18][18][18] Group 5 - The report on Xinnengda (300207) highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 21.92 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 3.516 billion yuan by 2027 [26][26][26] - The report notes that the demand for energy storage batteries is expected to remain strong, with the company investing in a new lithium battery project in Thailand [26][26][26] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinnengda, projecting a steady improvement in profitability due to the scale effect in the energy storage sector [26][26][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the scale of fixed - income plus funds continued to rise, with a total of 1419 funds and a scale of 1.93 trillion yuan. The issuance of such funds warmed up, especially from August to September. [8][16] - Influenced by the high - level correction in the convertible bond market, fixed - income plus products generally reduced their convertible bond positions and increased their stock positions, and most products increased their allocation to the TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors. [28][30] - In Q3 2025, the median return and maximum drawdown of fixed - income plus funds were 2.84% and - 0.85% respectively. Products with higher stock positions performed better. [36] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Scale Changes: Rapid Growth to Exceed 1.9 Trillion, High - Elasticity Secondary Bond Funds Attract Attention - **Overall Scale Trend**: The scale of fixed - income plus funds increased again in Q3 2025, showing an upward trend for four consecutive quarters. The total scale reached 1.93 trillion yuan, with an increase of 559.428 billion yuan this quarter. [8][10] - **Scale Changes by Product Type**: Except for the decline in the scale of new - share subscription funds, the scale of other products increased. Among them, the scale of low - and medium - position fixed - income plus funds increased significantly, and the scale of hybrid bond - type secondary funds rose rapidly. [10][13] - **Top - Rising Products**: The product with the largest scale increase was Yongying Steady Enhancement, with a scale increase of 27.331 billion yuan this quarter. It is a medium - volatility secondary bond fund with outstanding performance this quarter. [14] - **New Product Issuance**: In Q3 2025, fund companies issued 33 fixed - income plus funds, with a total initial issuance scale of 26.8 billion yuan. The issuance warmed up significantly from August to September. [16] - **Fund Company Perspective**: The management scales of the top 20 fund companies in terms of management scale all increased. The company with the largest scale increase was Invesco Great Wall Fund, with an increase of 78.199 billion yuan this quarter. [18] 3.2 Investment Characteristics: Lower Convertible Bond Positions, Raise Stock Positions - **Asset Allocation Characteristics**: Affected by the high - level correction in the convertible bond market, fixed - income plus products generally reduced their convertible bond positions and increased their stock positions, especially low - position fixed - income plus funds. [28] - **Industry Allocation Characteristics**: All types of fixed - income plus funds uniformly reduced their allocation to the financial real estate, consumption, medicine, and cycle sectors and increased their allocation to the science and technology innovation and advanced manufacturing sectors. [30] - **Fund Company - Level Industry Allocation Characteristics**: Among the top 10 fund companies in terms of fixed - income plus fund scale, there were significant differences in industry allocation views. For example, Invesco Great Wall Fund and Huaxia Fund over - allocated to the cycle sector, while Southern Fund and Invesco Great Wall Fund under - allocated to it. [32] - **Industry Allocation Characteristics of High - Performing Funds**: High - performing fixed - income plus funds in Q3 2025 generally had high convertible bond positions and mainly invested in the TMT, advanced manufacturing, and non - ferrous sectors. [34] 3.3 Performance Review: Huashang Fund Leads - **Overall Performance of Fixed - Income Plus Funds**: In Q3 2025, the median return and maximum drawdown of fixed - income plus funds were 2.84% and - 0.85% respectively. Products with higher stock positions performed better. [36] - **Fund Company - Level Performance**: Among the top fund companies in terms of fixed - income plus fund scale, Huashang Fund and Boshi Fund had the highest average returns. Tianhong Fund and BOC Fund had relatively similar product performance, while Huaxia Fund and Invesco Great Wall Fund had higher performance differentiation. [38] - **Performance of Large - Scale Funds**: In Q3 2025, the performance of large - scale fixed - income plus funds varied. Products with top performance in the same strategy included Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Fengli and Yongying Steady Enhancement. [39] - **High - Performing Products of Different Types of Fixed - Income Plus Funds**: The products with top returns included Hongta Hongtu Shengshang One - Year, Huatai - PineBridge Yurun, Rongtong Stable Credit Gain 6 - Month Holding, and Caitong Asset Management Xinyi. [41]

Core Viewpoint - The new fund issuance market in China remains active, with 29 new funds launched for public subscription during the week of October 20 to October 24, 2023, with equity funds being the dominant category [2][3]. Fund Issuance Overview - A total of 29 new funds were launched, with 26 of them debuting on Monday, October 20, accounting for nearly 90% of the week's total [4]. - The average subscription period for the new funds was 28.79 days, which is significantly longer compared to previous periods, likely due to recent market adjustments [4]. - The longest subscription period was three months for five funds, while the shortest was five days for two passive index funds [4]. Fund Types and Goals - Among the 29 new funds, 22 specified fundraising targets, with three funds aiming for 8 billion units, while the lowest target was 500 million units for three funds [5]. - Equity funds comprised over 80% of the new offerings, with 24 funds categorized as such, including 11 index funds and 4 enhanced index funds [7]. - Several new funds focused on Hong Kong-related indices and those tracking the ChiNext and free cash flow indices [7]. Active Equity Funds - The active equity funds included eight mixed funds, with three featuring floating fee structures and two being quantitative products [8]. - Investment directions varied, with some funds targeting the Hong Kong market and others focusing on niche sectors [8]. Bond and Mixed Funds - Only three bond funds were launched, indicating a cooling in bond fund issuance amid market adjustments [8]. - Two mixed FOFs were also introduced, both adopting a conservative investment style [8].

Core Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, over 2,900 fund products announced dividends totaling more than 180 billion yuan, representing a nearly 30% increase compared to the same period last year [3][6] - The "fixed income+" funds showed strong performance in Q3, with over 90% of approximately 3,700 products achieving positive returns, and some funds rising over 33% [3][5] Fund Performance - Q3 saw public fund dividends exceeding 55.5 billion yuan, with equity funds contributing 11.6 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year [6][20] - The total dividend for the year reached 182.5 billion yuan, a 29% increase year-on-year, reflecting improved profitability driven by a recovering A-share market [6][20] ETF Market Dynamics - In September, over 110 billion yuan flowed into stock ETFs, marking a significant monthly net inflow [7][10] - The total market size of ETFs reached 5.63 trillion yuan by the end of September, with stock ETFs surpassing 3.7 trillion yuan and bond ETFs nearing 700 billion yuan [8][9] New Fund Issuance - September 2025 saw a record high in new fund issuance, with 201 new public funds established, totaling 167.3 billion units [13][20] - The year-to-date issuance of new funds increased by over 30% compared to the previous year, with a notable rise in equity and bond funds [20] Notable Fund Performances - Several large-scale funds achieved returns exceeding 100% over the past year, with some funds showing gains of over 150% [18][19] - The top-performing funds included those focused on advanced manufacturing and carbon neutrality themes, reflecting strong market interest in these sectors [19] Regulatory and Market Developments - The public fund fee reform is accelerating, with a focus on reducing fees for money market funds [17] - The first foreign consumer REIT, Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT, was successfully listed, marking a significant step in the internationalization of China's REIT market [15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The proposed multi - objective - oriented Tikhonov regression model can effectively measure the multi - asset positions of "Fixed Income +" funds, with high accuracy in identifying significant position adjustments and providing key value for fund evaluation and investment practice [3]. - The model can track the flow of funds in "Fixed Income +" funds and identify significant position - adjustment behaviors, helping investors capture market signals and select products with sustainable timing capabilities [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Research Background and Model Introduction of "Fixed Income +" Fund Position Measurement 1. Background and Market - mainstream Model Methods Review - Measuring fund positions is necessary for understanding the asset structure of "Fixed Income +" funds, enhancing investment transparency, and strengthening risk management. In a low - interest - rate environment, "Fixed Income +" funds are important for capital inflow and stable value - added, and high - frequency position monitoring can provide basis for portfolio optimization [7]. - The current market - mainstream method for measuring fund positions is to construct a regression model based on fund net value and market indices and estimate positions through a portfolio optimization framework, which can provide high - frequency and dynamic position tracking [7]. 2. Systemic Dilemmas of Mainstream Measurement Models in "Fixed Income +" Fund Applications - Mainstream models cannot measure multi - asset portfolios, have low interpretability, significantly underestimate pure - bond positions, and have regression variable setting biases [8][9][10]. 3. Tikhonov Regression: A New Method for Solving Multi - asset Measurement Problems - Tikhonov regression is an extension of ridge regression, which can solve the multi - collinearity problem of multi - asset regression by designing a specific regularization matrix [12][14]. 4. Optimization of Tikhonov Regression Loss Function - Instead of using hard constraints, the loss function is optimized by introducing L1 and L2 regularization to achieve soft constraints, which can maintain numerical optimality and practical investment restrictions [17][18]. 5. Definition of Tikhonov Regression Equation - A unified modeling framework under 1/2 regularization conditions is defined, providing a basis for solving the optimal position [19][20]. 6. Solution of Regression Problem with L1/L2 Regularization - The gradient/ sub - gradient descent method is used to iteratively update parameters to approximate the optimal solution, obtaining the optimal position estimation of funds in various assets [21]. II. Implementation Process and Result Presentation of "Fixed Income +" Fund Position Measurement Model 1. Construction of Regression Indices - The regression indices of the fund pool are finely divided. The convertible bond and stock ends combine "individual characteristics" and "group characteristics" to construct indices, while the pure - bond end uses ChinaBond indices for regression according to the fund's position structure [26]. 2. Index Correlation - The average correlation coefficients within the pure - bond and stock index pools are relatively reasonable. By classifying funds and mapping industries, the correlation between indices is further reduced, improving the stability and reliability of regression results [32]. 3. Multi - objective - oriented Tikhonov Regression Algorithm - The data is constructed and pre - processed, the regression model is defined, the augmented matrix is built, and the solver is used to calculate. The results are visualized and analyzed to verify the rationality and interpretability of the model [34]. 4. Model Results - The model has high accuracy in measuring the positions of "Fixed Income +" funds. In August, the overall equity - containing position of "Fixed Income +" funds increased slightly, with a structural differentiation between stock and convertible bond positions [37]. 5. Error Distribution - The measurement errors of pure - bond and stock positions are relatively small and concentrated, while the error of convertible bond positions is relatively controllable. The model can be further optimized to improve the measurement accuracy of convertible bond positions [40]. 6. Classification by Equity - containing Exposure - The model can accurately track the asset allocation levels of various funds. For funds with different equity - containing exposures, the position centers and absolute errors of pure - bond, stock, and convertible bond positions vary [42]. 7. Stability of Large - scale Fund Position Measurement - The model has better stability in measuring the positions of large - scale funds, effectively tracking their dynamic position adjustments [46]. III. Applications of "Fixed Income +" Fund Position Measurement Model 1. High - frequency Tracking of Fund Flows - The model can effectively track the flow of funds in the stock positions of "Fixed Income +" funds. Most industries showed slight increases in positions this month, and the concentration of the top three industries increased, indicating a strengthening of market consensus. Leading funds have a more active equity allocation strategy [52]. 2. Identification of Significant Position - adjustment Behaviors - The model can identify significant position - adjustment behaviors with a win - rate of nearly 80%, which is helpful for evaluating the timing ability of fund managers and providing reference for asset allocation [54].

Core Insights - The new fund issuance is experiencing a peak following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, marking the final push for fund managers in 2023 [2] - A total of 23 funds were launched on October 9, with nearly 70 new funds scheduled for October, including several actively managed equity funds led by high-performing fund managers [2][3] Fund Types and Performance - Actively managed equity funds, index funds, and hybrid bond funds are the main types of new funds, expected to bring additional capital to the equity market [2] - 19 actively managed equity funds are set to launch post-holiday, with a focus on technology-themed funds due to strong performance in the first three quarters of the year [3] - Notable fund managers, such as Guan Fuqin and Yan Siqian, are leading new fund launches, with some funds achieving over 100% growth this year [3][4] Market Trends - The issuance of index funds is also robust, with over 30 new products scheduled for October, covering various indices to meet diverse investor needs [5] - The bond fund market is shifting towards hybrid bond funds, with no pure bond funds being launched, reflecting recent poor performance in the bond market [6] - The overall new fund issuance has rebounded in 2023, with 1,148 new funds established in the first three quarters, surpassing the total for the previous year [7][8] Notable Fund Launches - Major actively managed equity funds launched this year include the招商均衡优选混合基金, which raised nearly 5 billion, marking it as the largest actively managed fund this year [8] - The trend of increasing trust in actively managed equity funds correlates with the positive changes in the stock market, while the bond fund market has seen a significant decline [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing preference for low-volatility fixed income plus (multi-asset) funds among investors due to market fluctuations and structural changes [1][3] - Feng Fan, a unique fixed income plus fund manager at Yinhua Fund, has demonstrated a new trend in managing these products through quantitative methods, achieving better performance than the CSI 300 index in most years [3][10] Investment Strategy - Feng Fan's investment strategy is characterized by a top-down approach, emphasizing a comprehensive view of the market and macroeconomic factors [6][10] - Her educational background in international economics and financial mathematics has equipped her with both macro and quantitative analytical skills, forming a robust investment framework [7][8] Tactical Asset Allocation - Feng Fan focuses on matching asset allocation with the current macro environment rather than making predictions about future economic changes [12] - She aims to optimize the risk-return profile of the portfolio by carefully considering the equity exposure and bond duration [13][15] Risk Management - The risk management process is divided into three phases: pre-event, during the event, and post-event, with specific targets for maximum drawdown based on expected annual returns [19][20] - Feng Fan employs a quantitative system to guide the timing of increasing positions after a drawdown, ensuring a disciplined approach to risk control [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic choice of developing diversified investments and solid income plus (固收+) funds in response to the declining expected returns of fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Low-Interest Rate Environment and Solid Income Plus Fund Development - The continuous decline in China's interest rates has led to a decrease in expected returns from fixed-income assets, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from approximately 3.3% in 2021 to around 1.6%-1.7% by June 2025 [2][3]. - The low-interest-rate environment poses challenges for asset allocation, necessitating a shift towards diversified investments [2][3]. Growth of Solid Income Plus Funds - Solid income plus funds have seen rapid growth, with an increase of 136.4 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing 2 trillion yuan in total size, while pure bond funds decreased by 590 billion yuan during the same period [5]. - The performance of solid income plus funds has been favorable compared to pure bond funds, as indicated by better risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio) [5][6]. International Experiences in Low-Interest Rate Environments - In Japan, the solid income plus fund market grew significantly during low-interest periods, with the scale increasing from approximately 2 trillion yen to 17 trillion yen from 2001 to 2025 [7]. - European solid income plus funds also expanded rapidly, with growth rates exceeding those of pure bond funds during the same low-interest periods [9]. - Norway's sovereign fund reduced its allocation to fixed-income assets while increasing equity investments to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns [12]. Operational Model of Solid Income Plus Funds - The operational model of solid income plus funds should consider the characteristics of the financial market and investors' risk preferences, focusing on three aspects: liabilities, assets, and investment management [14][15]. - Fund management companies should offer products that match different risk-return profiles, catering to both individual and institutional investors [15][16]. Asset Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for solid income plus funds involves two levels: asset allocation between fixed-income and equity assets, and detailed investment within these asset classes [22]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has become more negative, allowing for better asset allocation advantages [23]. Investment Management Practices - A "1+N" multi-asset management model is proposed, where one asset allocation expert oversees the overall strategy, while multiple team members focus on specific areas [26][27]. - This model enhances collaboration and adaptability, improving the performance and resilience of solid income plus funds in changing market conditions [27][28].