2026 年 2 月 9 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】持股过节，关注成长——2026 年 2 月五维行业比较观点 2 月行业配置观点：关注成长板块。结合我们对于 2 月主观因素的判断，五维行业比 较框架视角下，预计市场风格或主要偏向成长，高估值板块相对更值得关注。从打分 的情况来看，电子、电力设备、机械设备、有色金属、通信、计算机等行业得分较高， 未来或值得投资者重点关注。 【策略】坚守布局，持股过节——策略周专题（2026 年 2 月第 1 期） 我们认为，本轮春季行情仍然值得期待，后续市场无论是在政策方面，还是在基本面 层面，未来几个月或仍有利好消息。不过市场表现未必会一帆风顺，春节之前，市场 可能会进入短暂的震荡修正阶段。不过，我们仍然建议投资者持股过节，在春节之后， 市场交易热度会再度回升，结合假期高频数据以及产业热点消息，之后市场可能会迎 来新一轮的上涨行情。 【债券】2019-2025 年"固收+"基金简要观察——"固收+"基金研究系列之一 比较符合"固收+"基金的有一级债基、二级债基、偏债混合型基金和可转债基金。 发行方面，2024 和 2025 年这两年二级债基是发行 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The issuance of bond funds has been relatively quiet at the beginning of the year, particularly for pure bond funds, while "fixed income +" funds are gaining importance in the new bond fund issuance landscape, with clear demand from both high-risk and low-risk investors [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Fund Issuance Data - A total of 17 bond funds have been issued so far this year, with a combined share of 170.25 billion units, of which 13 funds were issued in January, accounting for 152.64 billion units [1][3]. - The issuance of bond funds in January saw a 74% decrease month-on-month and a 69% decrease year-on-year, with the share of bond funds in the total new public fund issuance at 12.70%, marking a three-year low [3][6]. Group 2: Fund Types and Trends - Among the 17 bond funds issued this year, only 2 are pure bond funds and 1 is a passive index bond fund, while the remaining are mixed bond funds, which accounted for 74.8% of the new bond fund issuance [6][7]. - The total issuance of "fixed income +" funds this year reached 441.44 billion units, representing about one-third of all new bond fund issuances, driven by the growth of mixed bond funds [6][7]. Group 3: Market Context and Future Outlook - The expansion of "fixed income +" funds is attributed to the declining risk-return profile of traditional pure bond assets, leading to increased demand for products that enhance yield flexibility [6][7]. - The research team at China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that there is significant potential for the development of "fixed income +" strategies, with a notable shift in the funding structure expected in 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight declines, with specific movements in various government bond ETFs and futures contracts, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) fell by 0.27%, while the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2603) decreased by 0.35% to a price of 111.72 yuan, with a trading volume of 26,516 contracts and a total open interest of 130,320 contracts [1] - Other government bond futures showed varied performance: the 10-year bond (T2603) fell by 0.06%, the 5-year bond (TF2603) remained unchanged, and the 2-year bond (TS2603) increased by 0.01% [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 105.5 billion yuan at a stable bidding rate of 1.40% [1] - As of 4:30 PM the previous day, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250016) rose by 0.2 basis points to 1.812%, while the yield on the 30-year government bond (active bond 2500006) fell by 0.9 basis points to 2.251%, and the yield on the 10-year government development bond (active bond 250220) decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.978% [1] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The bond market has continued the trend of low yields and high volatility from 2025 into 2026, influenced by risk aversion and strong interest rate cut expectations, leading to a rapid increase in bond prices [1] - Investment institutions suggest that the bond market in 2026 will face both pressures and structural opportunities, with traditional demand from banks and insurance companies weakening, and stock market performance diverting investments [1] - Despite challenges, there are potential positive factors, such as a significant amount of bank fixed deposits maturing, which may shift into the bond market through "fixed income plus" funds [1] - The risk of a significant unilateral decline in the bond market appears relatively limited from a macro perspective, indicating potential structural opportunities in 2026 [1]

Performance Overview - In Q4 2025, convertible bond funds achieved a median return of 1.09%, outperforming first-level bond funds (0.6%), second-level bond funds (0.44%), and mixed bond funds (0.31%) [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the median return for convertible bond funds was 22.43%, significantly higher than first-level bond funds (2.06%), second-level bond funds (4.66%), and mixed bond funds (5.49%) [1] Fund Scale and Demand - In Q4 2025, the scale of second-level bond funds increased by 2506 billion CNY to reach 15535 billion CNY, while first-level bond funds and mixed bond funds saw decreases of 142.5 billion CNY and 7 billion CNY, respectively [1] - The net subscription for second-level bond funds in Q4 2025 was 2344 billion units, while first-level bond funds faced a net redemption of 186 billion units [19] Convertible Bond Holdings - In Q4 2025, the convertible bond holdings of first-level bond funds increased by 0.32 percentage points to 7.97%, while second-level bond funds and mixed bond funds saw declines of 1.07 and 0.88 percentage points, respectively [33] - Public funds focused on increasing holdings in bank bonds, as well as in sectors like new energy, cyclical stocks, and military-related bonds [40] Investment Strategy Insights - The demand for fixed-income plus funds is robust, with second-level bond funds becoming the primary vehicle for this demand, while first-level bond and convertible bond fund scales have marginally declined [3] - Institutions with equity allocation permissions are shifting their demand from first-level bond funds to second-level bond and mixed bond products due to the high valuation of convertible bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new fund issuance market in China remains robust, with 43 new funds launched in the last week of January 2026, primarily driven by equity funds, while FOF and "fixed income+" products also show positive trends [1][9]. Fund Issuance Overview - A total of 43 new funds were issued during the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, with 31 funds launched on January 26 alone, accounting for over 70% of the total [2][10]. - The average subscription period for new funds was 12.84 days, with the longest being approximately three months for the "Zhongjia Balanced Return" fund [2][10]. - The shortest subscription periods were for three funds, each planned for just one day, while several others had periods of 2-3 days [2][10]. Fund Target Goals - Out of the 43 new funds, 20 specified their fundraising targets, with 11 aiming for over 5 billion units. Notably, six funds, including "Guotai Consumer Leadership" and "Boshi Yingtai Zhenxuan," targeted 8 billion units each [3][11]. - Other targets included 6 billion units for "Jianxin Resource Selection" and 5 billion units for "Ping An Semiconductor Leadership Selection," which had the lowest target [3][11]. Fund Types and Themes - Equity funds dominated the new issuance, with 18 active equity funds making up over 40% of the total. This included 5 stock funds and 13 mixed funds, primarily focused on equity [4][12]. - The new equity funds covered a range of themes such as resources, cycles, consumption, semiconductors, and digital economy, with notable products like "Guotai Consumer Leadership" and "Boshi Digital Economy" [4][12]. - There were also 16 index funds, including 6 stock ETFs and 6 ordinary index funds, focusing on sector-specific indices [4][12]. FOF and QDII Funds - Five new FOF products were launched, primarily targeting risk-adjusted returns with holding periods of 3 to 6 months [5][13]. - Two new QDII funds were introduced, focusing on the Hong Kong stock market, namely "Zhongou Hong Kong Consumer" and "Xingye Hang Seng Technology Index" [6][14]. Fixed Income Products - The issuance of bond funds continued to decline due to poor performance in the bond market, with no pure bond funds launched this week. However, two mixed secondary bond funds were introduced [6][14].

年内股市波动不断、债市面临低利率的背景下，"固收+"基金成为部分投资者应对复杂市场环境的优选 工具。但同样是"固收+"，不同的风险波动也对应着不同程度的收益区间，对于普通投资者而言，又该 如何选择适合自己的产品？这就需要专业的基金管理人提供全方位参考。 2 作为国内老牌实力派固收大厂的博时基金，在长期的自主研发和探索下，根据含权资产配置比例的不 同，构建了涵盖高、中、低波动特征的完整"固收+"产品矩阵，以适配不同风险偏好投资者的收益需 求。同时，拥有完善的平台化投研架构。从产品业绩来看，博时基金"固收+"多只产品的长期业绩表现 优异且普遍跑赢同类平均。 1 投研、决策多方保障 回顾年内，股市持续震荡向上但行业分化明显，债市也面临着低利率、高波动环境。在此背景下，"固 收+"基金凭借"债券打底、力争权益增强"的策略框架，诠释了"进可攻、退可守"的优势，成为投资者应 对复杂市场环境的趁手工具。 而"固收+"产品的优势，就是将债券作为底仓资产的基础上，依靠着配置股票、可转债等资产力争收益 增强，充分捕捉市场机遇，致力于为投资者带来相较于普通债基更优厚的回报。 梳理公募固收投研能力的头部机构，博时基金当仁不让。作为" ...

(ID中信保诚基金了! 中信保诚稳悦债券A TOP5 (5/1002) - 告 mmun E 指导 中信保诚基金 2025Q4 成绩单 固定收益篇 探寻稳进更优解 2025年,固收市场在"股债晓晓板"效应、政策预期与宏 观经济叙事的多重博弈中,步入了高波动的震荡格局。 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚稳泰债券A 前15% (79/555) 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚稳健债券A 前20% (59/300) 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 004102 ill 经信 004108 003226 投资者对"低利率"环境的感受尤为深刻,固收+基金优势 出显。 复杂的市场情况,是基金公司投研能力的"试金石"。 在此背景下,中信保诚基金持续为投资者筑牢资产配置 的底仓,多种策略债基均取得亮眼回报。 利率指数 中信保诚中债0-2年政策性金融债指数A 020165 前8% (12/164) 近一年 利率债指数债券型基金(A类) 同类基金 推会成本法 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚景丰债券A 前17% (162/1002) 中信保诚嘉润66个月定期开放债券 010462 前20% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decrease in new fund issuance, with only 8 new funds launched during the last week of 2025, all of which are equity-related products [2][3] - The new funds include 4 equity funds and 2 mixed secondary bond funds, indicating a continued focus on equity investments despite a cooling bond market [3][4] - The longest subscription period for the new funds is approximately three months, while some funds have a subscription period as short as one day [2][3] Group 2 - Among the 8 new funds, 4 have set clear fundraising targets, with the highest being 80 million units for the Guangfa STAR Market Chip ETF and 60 million units for the Zhongyin Securities Anyi fund [3] - The new funds primarily focus on sectors such as technology and digital economy, with several funds tracking industry-specific indices [3][4] - The article notes that the bond market's profitability is declining, leading to a decrease in bond fund issuance, although "fixed income +" funds continue to be introduced [3]

Market Overview - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index at one point increasing by over 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.78 trillion, a decrease of 28.8 billion from the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% [1] Investment Trends - Despite the market downturn, many investment institutions are buying into stock ETFs, with a net inflow of 701.21 billion in stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs last week [4] - The net inflow into broad-based index ETFs was 359.31 billion, indicating a significant direction for capital inflow [4] - Institutions believe that the overall market trend remains unchanged, and the current capital inflow into ETFs suggests that many investors are taking the opportunity to buy on dips [4] External Factors - Recent adjustments in the market are attributed to external factors, including unexpected U.S. employment data and rising unemployment rates, which have created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] - Concerns about asset price declines and the AI bubble have not fully dissipated, contributing to market volatility [5] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are also affecting market risk appetite [5] Long-term Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the market, suggesting that the current short-term pullback does not alter the long-term positive trend [6] - The expectation is for a "slow bull" market to emerge, with foreign investment banks noting that while the market has priced in no further interest rate cuts this year, the possibility of a rate cut in December remains [6] Defensive Strategies - As the year-end approaches, institutions are adopting balanced allocation strategies for next year [7] - There is a strong demand for dividend-paying assets due to ongoing pressures in bank lending and deposit growth [8] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the central bank could enhance the valuation of dividend assets [9] Growth Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology as a key area for growth, presenting both opportunities and challenges [10] - Strategic resources are expected to become focal points in the market due to U.S.-China competition [11] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is showing signs of recovery, with the central bank signaling a more accommodative stance [12] - A decrease in bond supply towards year-end is leading to increased demand for early allocation from banks and insurance companies [12] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider professional institutions for market participation and to monitor fund managers' adjustments [12] - A balanced allocation strategy, referred to as the "barbell strategy," is recommended, focusing on both technology-driven sectors and stable dividend-paying stocks [14] - Investors should lower short-term expectations and consider "fixed income plus" funds for stable returns [15] - Maintaining rationality during market downturns and seeking opportunities in corrections is advised as a long-term investment strategy [16]