Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Outperform" for Chow Tai Fook, expecting a relative return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's revenue for FY2025 was HKD 89.66 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%, primarily due to weak macroeconomic conditions and gold price fluctuations affecting consumer spending [2][8]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company achieved a gross profit margin increase of 5.5 percentage points to 29.5%, and operating profit rose by 9.8% to HKD 14.75 billion, benefiting from high gold prices and optimized product mix [2][8]. - The management anticipates revenue recovery in FY2026, projecting single to mid-single-digit growth, with same-store sales also expected to improve [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 9.0% to HKD 5.92 billion, mainly due to revaluation losses on gold lending contracts [2][8]. - Chow Tai Fook plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.32 per share, with an annual payout ratio of 87.8%, reflecting strong capital return capabilities [2][8]. Same-Store Sales Performance - Same-store sales faced pressure, with a decline of 19.4% in the mainland market and 26.1% in Hong Kong and Macau for FY2025 [3][9]. - However, there was a notable improvement in the second half of FY2025, with Hong Kong and Macau markets showing a retail sales growth of 6.3% year-on-year in early FY2026 [3][9]. Product Mix and Pricing Strategy - The contribution of priced gold products significantly increased, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 105.5%, while revenue from priced gold products dropped by 29.4% due to gold price fluctuations [4][10]. - The share of retail sales from priced gold products reached 18.6%, up 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a successful shift in product strategy [4][10]. Store Network Optimization - As of FY2025, Chow Tai Fook operated 6,274 stores in Mainland China, with plans to add 20 new image stores and expand into markets like Singapore and Canada in FY2026 [5][12]. - The company closed 896 stores in Mainland China during FY2025 but opened new image stores in key cities, enhancing its retail presence [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [4][8] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY25 revenue was HKD 89.66 billion, down 17.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of HKD 5.92 billion, down 9.0% year-on-year. The company plans to pay a dividend of HKD 0.52 per share, with a payout ratio of 87.8% [2][8] - The company is expected to see net profit growth of 20%, 15%, and 12% for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with projected net profits of HKD 7.09 billion, HKD 8.17 billion, and HKD 9.15 billion [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's FY25 revenue breakdown shows mainland China revenue at HKD 74.56 billion, down 16.9%, while Hong Kong and Macau revenue was HKD 15.10 billion, down 20.6%. Same-store sales in mainland China decreased by 19.4% [2][3] - The company's gross margin improved to 29.5%, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of fixed-price gold products [8][12] Store Operations - As of the end of FY25, Chow Tai Fook had a total of 6,423 stores, with a net closure of 892 stores during the year. The company continues to focus on improving operational quality by closing underperforming stores [3][8] Market Outlook - The report indicates that retail sales and same-store sales have shown signs of improvement in April and May 2025, with overall retail value down 1.7% and same-store sales in mainland China down 2.7% [8][12] - The company is expected to continue its strategy of opening new flagship stores in key markets like Hong Kong and Shenzhen to enhance brand influence [3][8]