龙湖集团 20251207 摘要 龙湖地产作为老牌房企，业务涵盖开发、运营和服务，布局一二线城市， 财务管理审慎，管控能力强，展现出较强的韧性。 龙湖商业投资板块是其差异化优势，截至 2025 年底运营 89 座商场， 总面积超 940 万平方米，选址集中于一二线城市 TOD 项目，具有显著 的区位优势和持续外延式增长能力。 龙湖商业租金坪效在 2025 年上半年跌幅收窄，表明进入效益兑现阶段， 老项目升级改造推动内生成长，管理优势显著，同城平均租金水平优于 全市平均水平。 C-REITs 为龙湖商业地产带来重估空间，消费 REITs 股息率与当前账面 估值资本化率存在差距，若以接近 5%的资本化率重估，股权价值可达 1993 亿以上。 龙湖智创生活第三方项目占比达 60%，非住宅业务占比 30%，科技赋 能提升运营效率，毛利率远高于行业平均水平，设施管理市场空间广阔。 龙湖智创生活智慧制造业务新增签约面积同比增长 87%，行业排名第五， 与央国企、地方平台等合作广泛，代建业务具备全业态和全流程优势。 龙湖融资状况健康，有息负债持续下降，现金流表现良好，维持三大红 线绿档，融资成本降低，债务压力已过，未来业绩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group reported a revenue of 58.75 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a 25% year-on-year increase, with a strong performance in real estate development and stable growth in operational services [2][3]. Real Estate Development - The real estate development segment generated revenue of 45.48 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.7% year-on-year growth, although the gross profit margin was impacted by lower sales prices [3]. - The total sales for the first half reached 35.01 billion yuan, with a collection rate exceeding 100%, and approximately 90% of sales came from first- and second-tier cities [3]. Delivery and Market Outlook - Longfor delivered around 40,000 housing units across 36 cities, achieving a customer satisfaction rate exceeding 90% [4]. - The company remains optimistic about the core first- and second-tier city markets, despite recent downward pressures in the housing market [4]. Investment Strategy - Longfor continues to focus on acquiring quality land in core cities, having secured four prime land parcels with a total building area of 249,000 square meters and a projected value exceeding 5 billion yuan [4]. - As of June 30, the total land bank stood at 28.4 million square meters, with over 70% located in first- and second-tier cities [4]. Operational and Service Business Growth - The operational and service business generated 13.27 billion yuan in revenue, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, contributing 22.6% to total revenue [7]. - The commercial investment segment reported a rental income of 7.01 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with a high occupancy rate of 97% [8]. Debt Management - Longfor aims to reduce its debt by over 30 billion yuan this year, with a target to lower total debt to around 140 billion yuan by year-end [10][11]. - The company has successfully repaid 10 billion yuan of overseas loans ahead of schedule and plans to continue optimizing its debt structure [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was impacted by industry fluctuations, but its diversified business model provides solid support for profits. The debt structure continues to improve, gradually alleviating repayment pressure [6][7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 127.47 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 29.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.40 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The operational and service segments contributed significantly to the company's profits, with service revenue increasing by 7.4% year-on-year, accounting for 21% of total revenue [2][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 127.47 billion yuan, down 29.6% year-on-year. The core profit was 6.97 billion yuan, a decline of 38.6% year-on-year. The gross margin was 16.0%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from 2023 [1][2]. - The operational and service business segments showed resilience, with a gross margin of 75.0% for the service segment [2][5]. Sales Performance - The company recorded a contract sales amount of 101.12 billion yuan in 2024, down 41.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 7.124 million square meters, a decrease of 34.0% year-on-year [3]. - The average sales price per square meter was 14,200 yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year [3]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt was 176.32 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with cash on hand at 49.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.2% [4]. - The net debt ratio stood at 51.7%, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.03 times [4]. Operational Resilience - The company's rental income from operational businesses reached 13.52 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, with shopping center rental income rising by 7% to 10.98 billion yuan [5]. - The company opened 11 new shopping centers in 2024, bringing the total to 89, with an occupancy rate of 97% [5]. Financial Forecasts - The report adjusts the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 to 7.06 billion yuan and 7.25 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 7.51 billion yuan [6].