Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Longfor Group's strong performance in 2025, achieving a total contract sales amount of 63.16 billion yuan and a sales area of 5.186 million square meters, despite a challenging real estate market in China [2] - Longfor Group's operational revenue reached approximately 28.54 billion yuan, marking a historical high, with operational business revenue at about 15.19 billion yuan and service business revenue at around 13.35 billion yuan [2] - In 2025, Longfor's residential products demonstrated significant influence in key cities, ranking among the top five in seven cities and achieving top positions in Chongqing and Guiyang, while entering the top ten in 14 cities nationwide [2] Group 2 - In the operational business segment, Longfor successfully added 13 shopping centers and continued to upgrade existing commercial properties [3] - The asset management division, including the long-term rental apartment brand "Guan Yu," had 127,000 operational units by the end of 2025, and the new vibrant street brand "Huan Si" launched in four cities [3] - Longfor's service business acquired several landmark projects and leveraged digital technology to enhance service quality, with the "Longfor Longzhizao" brand achieving a new construction area of 13.87 million square meters and a sales amount of 20.62 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - Huatai Securities expressed optimism about Longfor Group, noting the potential for value release in commercial real estate, service business growth driven by technology, and the recovery dynamics in the development sector [4] - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.1% in shopping mall operational area since 2022, supporting rental income growth [4] - Technology empowerment is seen as a critical future growth point for Longfor, contributing to excess profit margins in the service sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group reported strong operational data for 2025, achieving a contract sales amount of 63.16 billion yuan and a sales area of 5.186 million square meters, despite a challenging real estate market in China [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Longfor Group's total operating revenue for 2025 reached approximately 28.54 billion yuan (including tax), marking a historical high, with operational business revenue of about 15.19 billion yuan and service business revenue of around 13.35 billion yuan [1][4]. - The overall sales scale of Longfor Group remains among the industry leaders, with the company ranking in the top five in seven cities and achieving first place in Chongqing and Guiyang [5]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Development - Longfor Group's operational business showed proactive strategic enhancements, including the addition of 13 new shopping centers and ongoing upgrades of existing commercial properties [2][5]. - The asset management segment, particularly the long-term rental apartment brand "Guan Yu," had 127,000 operational units by the end of 2025, while the new vibrant street brand "Huan Si" launched in four cities [2][5]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - The management emphasized that the continuous development of operational and service businesses will be crucial for the company's growth and adaptation to the current market conditions [6]. - Huatai Securities expressed optimism about Longfor Group, highlighting the potential for value release in commercial real estate, service business growth driven by technology, and recovery dynamics in the market [6].

Summary of Longfor Group Conference Call Company Overview - Longfor Group is a well-established real estate company founded in 1993, headquartered in Chongqing, with over 30 years of development history. The company operates in three main segments: development, operation, and services, covering both first and second-tier cities [5][4]. Key Points and Arguments Business Segments - Longfor's commercial investment segment is a key differentiator, with 89 operational malls covering over 9.4 million square meters by the end of 2025, primarily located in first and second-tier cities, showcasing significant location advantages and growth potential [2][6]. - The rental efficiency of Longfor's commercial properties showed a narrowing decline in the first half of 2025, indicating a transition into a phase of realized benefits from upgrades and renovations of older projects [2][9]. - The C-REITs framework provides a revaluation opportunity for Longfor's commercial real estate, with an implied equity value exceeding 199.3 billion RMB if revalued at a capitalization rate close to 5% [2][10]. Financial Health - Longfor's financing situation is robust, with interest-bearing debt decreasing from nearly 210 billion RMB in 2022 to under 170 billion RMB mid-year 2023, maintaining a healthy cash flow and compliance with financial regulations [3][16]. - The company’s financing costs have reduced by approximately 60 basis points to 3.58% in 2025, comparable to state-owned enterprises, indicating strong financial security [18][19]. Growth Potential - The service segment, although not separately listed, is considered highly valuable, with significant growth potential driven by technological empowerment [11][22]. - Longfor's smart living segment has a third-party project ratio of 60% and a non-residential business ratio of 30%, with a gross margin significantly above the industry average [2][12][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Longfor's development business faced a 32% year-on-year decline in sales amounting to approximately 35 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, but the company remains competitive in first and second-tier cities [15][19]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 3.7 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 4.8 billion RMB in 2026, and around 7.3 billion RMB by 2027, indicating a recovery in performance despite current market challenges [19][20]. Valuation and Investment Opportunity - The fair value assessment of Longfor suggests a total equity value of approximately 114.7 billion RMB, with a target price of 15.21 HKD, indicating over 50% potential upside [20][21]. - The undervaluation of Longfor is attributed to three main factors: the revaluation potential of the commercial operations, the growth potential of the service segment, and the resilience of the development business amidst market adjustments [21][22]. Additional Important Insights - Longfor's commercial projects are strategically located in first and second-tier cities, with over 80 malls being TOD (Transit-Oriented Development) projects, which are expected to have strong long-term advantages [7][8]. - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate of nearly 30% in mall opening area from 2013 to 2022, with a projected annualized growth rate of 14% from 2022 to mid-2025 [8][9]. - Longfor's smart manufacturing segment has seen a year-on-year increase of 87% in newly signed area, ranking fifth in the industry, showcasing its competitive edge and extensive collaboration with state-owned enterprises [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group reported a revenue of 58.75 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a 25% year-on-year increase, with a strong performance in real estate development and stable growth in operational services [2][3]. Real Estate Development - The real estate development segment generated revenue of 45.48 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.7% year-on-year growth, although the gross profit margin was impacted by lower sales prices [3]. - The total sales for the first half reached 35.01 billion yuan, with a collection rate exceeding 100%, and approximately 90% of sales came from first- and second-tier cities [3]. Delivery and Market Outlook - Longfor delivered around 40,000 housing units across 36 cities, achieving a customer satisfaction rate exceeding 90% [4]. - The company remains optimistic about the core first- and second-tier city markets, despite recent downward pressures in the housing market [4]. Investment Strategy - Longfor continues to focus on acquiring quality land in core cities, having secured four prime land parcels with a total building area of 249,000 square meters and a projected value exceeding 5 billion yuan [4]. - As of June 30, the total land bank stood at 28.4 million square meters, with over 70% located in first- and second-tier cities [4]. Operational and Service Business Growth - The operational and service business generated 13.27 billion yuan in revenue, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, contributing 22.6% to total revenue [7]. - The commercial investment segment reported a rental income of 7.01 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with a high occupancy rate of 97% [8]. Debt Management - Longfor aims to reduce its debt by over 30 billion yuan this year, with a target to lower total debt to around 140 billion yuan by year-end [10][11]. - The company has successfully repaid 10 billion yuan of overseas loans ahead of schedule and plans to continue optimizing its debt structure [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was impacted by industry fluctuations, but its diversified business model provides solid support for profits. The debt structure continues to improve, gradually alleviating repayment pressure [6][7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 127.47 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 29.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.40 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The operational and service segments contributed significantly to the company's profits, with service revenue increasing by 7.4% year-on-year, accounting for 21% of total revenue [2][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 127.47 billion yuan, down 29.6% year-on-year. The core profit was 6.97 billion yuan, a decline of 38.6% year-on-year. The gross margin was 16.0%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from 2023 [1][2]. - The operational and service business segments showed resilience, with a gross margin of 75.0% for the service segment [2][5]. Sales Performance - The company recorded a contract sales amount of 101.12 billion yuan in 2024, down 41.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 7.124 million square meters, a decrease of 34.0% year-on-year [3]. - The average sales price per square meter was 14,200 yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year [3]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt was 176.32 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with cash on hand at 49.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.2% [4]. - The net debt ratio stood at 51.7%, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.03 times [4]. Operational Resilience - The company's rental income from operational businesses reached 13.52 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, with shopping center rental income rising by 7% to 10.98 billion yuan [5]. - The company opened 11 new shopping centers in 2024, bringing the total to 89, with an occupancy rate of 97% [5]. Financial Forecasts - The report adjusts the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 to 7.06 billion yuan and 7.25 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 7.51 billion yuan [6].