（来源：矿权资源网） 来源：矿权资源网 【长江现货金属点评：铝价微幅走强 多数品种承压调整】 截至2026年1月9日上午，长江现货市场基本金属价格走势分化。A00铝成为日内唯一上涨品种，而铜、 锌、铅、锡、镍价格均出现不同幅度下跌，其中镍、锡跌幅尤为显著，市场整体情绪偏于谨慎。 以下为各品种具体分析： 镍价深度调整：长江现货1#镍报143,850元/吨，大幅下跌6,200元。镍价波动剧烈，领跌基本金属。这主 要归因于其金融属性较强，对美元及利率预期变化极为敏感。同时，市场对二级镍供应过剩的长期忧虑 持续存在，价格在宏观利空下出现深度调整。 【今日基本金属为何全线下跌？】 今日市场整体受到短期强势美元及宏观情绪转淡的影响，金属价格普遍承压。铝因其突出的基本面逻 辑，成为日内唯一收红品种。多数品种的下跌，更多是前期价格上涨后叠加宏观因素引发的技术性调 整。投资者需关注晚间公布的美国非农就业数据，其结果或将指引短期市场方向。中长期来看，全球宽 松周期预期与部分品种的供应瓶颈，仍将为金属市场提供结构性支撑。全球金融市场正处于宏观逻辑主 导下的关键节点。市场谨慎情绪与对美联储政策的重新定价，共同塑造了当前的资产价格格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is showing resilience despite macroeconomic pressures, with various factors influencing its price dynamics, including supply constraints, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical risks [1][2][5]. Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000, leading to a drop in the unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.3%, which has altered interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - The supply side remains tight, with major overseas mines still in a phase of resuming operations, and domestic copper concentrate processing fees dropping to around -50 USD, indicating a scarcity of copper resources [3][4]. - The Democratic Republic of the Congo, as the second-largest copper producer, is expected to increase its copper exports by nearly 10% to 3.4 million tons in 2025, providing some relief to the global copper market, but overall supply remains constrained [3]. Demand Trends - Demand has slowed down as the Chinese New Year approaches, with downstream enterprises reducing procurement activities, leading to an increase in social inventory of electrolytic copper to around 330,000 tons, a high for the past five years [4]. - The long-term demand outlook remains positive due to structural needs driven by clean energy transitions and advancements in artificial intelligence [4]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors have significantly impacted copper prices, with frequent mining accidents and operational disruptions, alongside escalating geopolitical tensions, heightening concerns over copper supply [5][6]. - Strategic initiatives by countries to secure copper resources, such as China's proposal to enhance its copper resource reserve system and the U.S. plan for a $12 billion "stockpile initiative," are expected to support long-term copper price stability [5][6]. Market Outlook - In the short term, copper prices are expected to consolidate due to low trading activity and economic slowdown during the holiday season, with strong support anticipated in the range of 98,000 to 103,000 RMB per ton [7]. - Long-term trends suggest that the tight supply of global copper resources and increasing structural demand will likely lead to a continued upward trajectory in copper prices, with potential for a new rally post-holiday [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market for basic metals is experiencing significant divergence, with copper and zinc showing strong performance while aluminum, lead, and tin are under pressure, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and fundamental factors [1][6]. Group 1: Copper and Zinc Performance - Copper prices surged by 1,820 yuan to an average of 104,600 yuan/ton, driven by strong supply-demand gap expectations, with low global inventories and increased demand from sectors like energy transition and electric vehicles [1]. - Zinc prices increased by 510 yuan to an average of 25,820 yuan/ton, supported by concerns over supply due to energy costs in Europe and seasonal maintenance in domestic mines, alongside pre-holiday stocking by downstream users [2]. Group 2: Aluminum, Lead, and Tin Trends - Aluminum prices slightly decreased by 200 yuan to an average of 24,660 yuan/ton, with a relatively stable supply-demand structure, but traditional consumption in construction remains weak, limiting upward momentum [2]. - Tin prices plummeted by 11,750 yuan to an average of 423,750 yuan/ton, attributed to profit-taking after previous overestimation of demand from AI and semiconductors, alongside reduced purchasing activity before the holiday [3]. - Lead prices fell by 150 yuan to an average of 16,850 yuan/ton, reflecting a weak supply-demand balance, with stable recycled lead production and stagnant demand from traditional battery sectors [4]. Group 3: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices fluctuated downwards, decreasing by 2,050 yuan to an average of 145,850 yuan/ton, with a long-term oversupply situation due to increased production in Indonesia, despite some demand from electric vehicle batteries [5]. Group 4: Macro Sentiment and Market Overview - Market sentiment is influenced by external factors, with a weak US dollar providing support for metals priced in RMB, while concerns over tech sector capital expenditures have affected certain metal prices [6]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is leading to reduced physical procurement activities, shifting market focus from fundamentals to macro sentiment and capital dynamics, with a notable divergence in metal performance [6].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market for basic metals is under pressure due to a strong US dollar and shifting macroeconomic sentiment, with aluminum being the only metal to show a slight increase in price [4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Copper prices have significantly retreated, with 1 copper reported at 100,680 yuan/ton, down 1,940 yuan from the previous day, primarily due to macroeconomic sentiment and adjustments in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2]. - Aluminum prices have shown resilience, with A00 aluminum at 24,030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, supported by a clear long-term supply-demand structure and relatively low social inventory levels [2]. - Zinc prices have slightly weakened, with 0 and 1 zinc at 24,050 yuan/ton and 23,950 yuan/ton respectively, both down 150 yuan, reflecting concerns over weak demand in traditional sectors [2]. - Lead prices have also declined, with 1 lead at 17,350 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan, amid a lack of consumer demand and a cautious market atmosphere [2]. - Tin prices have corrected from previous highs, with 1 tin at 351,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and uncertainty regarding semiconductor demand recovery [3]. - Nickel prices have seen a significant drop, with 1 nickel at 143,850 yuan/ton, down 6,200 yuan, due to its sensitivity to changes in the dollar and interest rate expectations, alongside concerns over oversupply [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - The market is currently experiencing a cautious sentiment influenced by a strong dollar and technical adjustments following previous price increases, with aluminum standing out due to its strong fundamental logic [4]. - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which could guide short-term market direction [4]. - The potential for a short-term rebound in metal prices may arise from factors such as weaker-than-expected non-farm data, which could reignite expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and lead to a dollar decline [5]. - Technical adjustments following index rebalancing may alleviate some selling pressure in the market [6]. - Geopolitical tensions could trigger safe-haven demand, potentially impacting metal prices [7].