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《有色》日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, driven by a weak US dollar and supply shortages. Macroscopically, the US government's shutdown and weak employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. Fundamentally, supply shortages in copper mines, such as the ongoing shutdown of the Grasberg mine and disruptions in other mines, have strengthened the support for copper prices. The主力 is advised to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely, with the main contract closing down 0.28%. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the supply was abundant. The supply pressure persisted, with high domestic operating capacity and increasing overseas production. The demand was weak, with electrolytic aluminum plants having high raw material inventories and low procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the short - term spot price of alumina will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the main contract moving up to around 21,000 yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro factors such as the US government shutdown and expectations of Fed rate cuts. In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum production declined slightly in September, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. The demand showed structural characteristics, with some sectors improving but high aluminum prices suppressing downstream orders. After the holiday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the spot premium was under pressure. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices strengthened with the rise of aluminum prices, and the SMM spot ADC12 price also increased. The cost was supported by the rise of LME aluminum during the holiday and the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, and the demand showed a mild recovery but with limited volume. The domestic social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the import loss expanded. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract operating between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices maintained a strong operation, supported by low inventory and a weak US dollar. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the US government shutdown led to a weak US dollar index. Domestically, the supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The "strong outside, weak inside" pattern of zinc prices has been obvious since the second half of 2025. The short - term price of Shanghai zinc may rise due to macro - driving factors, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. It may maintain an oscillation pattern, with the main contract between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - Tin prices strengthened. The supply of tin ore remained tight, with low processing fees for smelters. Domestic tin ore imports in August were at a low level, and the crackdown on illegal tin mines in Indonesia before the holiday increased supply concerns. The demand was weak, with insufficient orders in the solder industry due to the sluggish consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. The follow - up depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar. If the supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [9]. Nickel - After the holiday, the nickel market showed a strong trend, driven by macro - sentiment and the overall boost of the non - ferrous sector. The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of the Fed's rate - cut path affected the market. In the industry, the policy expectations for the Indonesian nickel ore end have increased. The nickel ore price remained firm, but the nickel - iron market was sluggish, and the demand for stainless steel was weak. The demand for nickel sulfate was good in the peak season, but there were concerns about new production capacity and sustainable demand in the medium term. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, the stainless steel market rose slightly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the chromium - iron market was driven by demand and cost. The supply pressure was increasing, with an expected increase in steel production in September. The demand improvement was not obvious, and the social inventory decline was slow. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - On the first trading day after the holiday, the lithium carbonate market oscillated. The main contract LC2511 rose 0.27%. The supply - side news included the approval of mining reports by Guoxuan High - tech and the acquisition of a mining license by Zangge Mining. The fundamentals were in a tight balance during the peak season. The production increased last week, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. The demand was optimistic, with expected increases in iron - lithium and ternary orders. The whole - chain inventory continued to decline last week, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream seasonal restocking. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 85,740 yuan/ton, up 3.00% from the previous day. The premium/discount of SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained unchanged at 15 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed varying degrees of increase, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. In August, electrolytic copper imports were 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased, and the operating rates of copper rod production decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The premium/discount decreased. Alumina prices in various regions declined. The import loss of aluminum increased, and the monthly spread showed different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of some aluminum processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions increased by about 0.95 - 0.96%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions also increased. The monthly spread showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased. The operating rates of some enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The import loss decreased slightly, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. In August, refined zinc imports increased by 43.30%. The operating rates of zinc - related industries decreased slightly, and the inventory of zinc showed different changes [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose to 284,200 yuan/ton, up 2.53%. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased significantly [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased slightly. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of tin decreased in different markets [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread changed [11]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased slightly, while imports decreased. The inventory in different markets showed different trends, with an increase in LME inventory [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the monthly spread changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while imports increased and exports increased slightly. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, and the price of lithium - spodumene concentrate decreased. The monthly spread changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased, and the demand also increased. The inventory decreased in different links, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [14].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:00
Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise. Pay attention to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading and the marginal changes in the demand side. The main contract is supported at 81000 - 81500 [1]. Aluminum - The short - term alumina spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract running in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - The supply - relaxation logic has spread from the zinc - mine end to the zinc - ingot end. The zinc price will continue to be under pressure, but the impact of interest - rate cuts on the macro - trading logic needs to be noted [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price is expected to weaken; if the supply recovery is poor, the tin price will continue to oscillate at a high level, in the range of 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price will maintain an interval oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 125000 [15]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless - steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium - carbonate price will oscillate and sort out, with the main - contract price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous value. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. SMM wet - process copper was at 82385 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2905 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 1460 yuan/ton, down 4.58% [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The LME 0 - 3 premium was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7.14% [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 470 yuan/ton, down 20.51% from the previous value [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin - ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% from the previous value; the SMM refined - tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price was 855 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined - nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 51 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [19]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium - carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [19].
瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250924
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 09:17
铝类产业日报 2025/9/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,705.00 0.00 | +20.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +10.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,907.00 -26.00 | +30.00↑ -6.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 221,314.00 | -4134.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 318,873.00 | -9337.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 111,200.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 174,191.00 | +8919.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价(日,美元/吨) 沪铝前20名净持仓(日,手) | 2,646.00 -6,257.00 | -9.00↓ LME铝库存(日,吨) +608.0 ...
广发期货《有色》日报-20250922
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:33
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The impact of rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reason and macro - background. The previous loose trading may end, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the short - term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend, and the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price was volatile last week. The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand pull from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection point [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price declined last week. The cost support is significant, and the demand is in a mild recovery. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The import TC is rising steadily, and the supply side is expected to be loose. The demand side shows differentiation at home and abroad. The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates in September. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000. Attention should be paid to the tin ore import from Myanmar [9]. Nickel - The nickel price was volatile last week. After the Fed's rate cut, the macro - sentiment was digested. There is no obvious change in the spot transaction of refined nickel. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 120,000 - 125,000, and attention should be paid to the macro - expectation and ore news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price declined slightly last week. The raw material price is firm, but the peak - season demand has not been realized. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill dynamics and peak - season demand [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price was volatile last week. The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained at 79,990 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper's premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton, with a 6.70% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.18 million tons to 72.45 million tons, with a 4.59% increase [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 209 yuan/ton to 1850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - new spreads in different regions increased, with the largest increase of 2.43% in the Foshan profile aluminum scrap - new spread [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 15.17 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing starting rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 58.05% [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 269,300 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 tin premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 122,750 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 179 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons, with a 2.07% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,100 yuan/ton. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.60 million tons to 47.20 million tons, with a 1.26% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 858 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [15].
《有色》日报-20250922
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:35
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The Fed's "preventive" rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support, and the copper price center will gradually rise. In the short term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend. The main contract is expected to trade between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, considering the cost, the downside space is limited, while the upside needs Guinea's supply changes or macro - sentiment catalysis. It is expected to trade between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overall macro - environment is still slightly positive. The cost of alumina is weak, and demand is in the traditional peak season. However, the inventory is accumulating, so the price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, and the supply is constrained. The demand is moderately recovering, and the pre - holiday stocking demand supports the spot price. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand shows a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The zinc price is under pressure. In the short term, it may be driven by the macro - environment to rise, but the fundamentals have limited support for continuous upward movement. It is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The macro - environment has a mixed impact. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in traditional sectors but has some growth in emerging sectors. The fundamentals continue to improve, and the tin price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [9]. - **Nickel**: After the Fed's rate - cut expectation is realized, the macro - sentiment is digested. The industry has limited changes, and the inventory is rising overseas and slightly increasing domestically. The price is expected to be in an interval - volatile range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - environment is weak overseas and positive domestically. The raw material price is firm, but the demand in the peak season fails to meet expectations. The price is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, with the main contract trading between 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - sentiment is gradually digested. The supply path is clear, and the demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price remains unchanged at 79,990 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper premium increases by 15 yuan/ton. The SMM wet - process copper price rises by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increases by 110 yuan/ton, or 6.70% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 40 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreases by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production is 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the electrolytic copper import volume is 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The copper concentrate inventory in domestic ports increases by 3.18 million tons, or 4.59% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rises by 30 yuan/ton, or 0.14%. The import loss increases by 209 yuan/ton. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreases by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production is 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production is 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The electrolytic aluminum import volume in July is 24.83 million tons, and the export volume is 4.10 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increase. The 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 5 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots is 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreases by 20 yuan/ton, or 0.09%. The import loss increases by 15.17 yuan/ton. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 15 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production is 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the refined zinc import volume is 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%, and the export volume is 0.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78.45% [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreases by 900 yuan/ton, or 0.33%. The SMM 1 tin premium increases by 50 yuan/ton, or 14.29%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increases by 30.59 dollars/ton, or 19.74% [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import volume is 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 is - 179 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss of futures increases by 13.47% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in August is 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The refined nickel import volume is 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread remains unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in August is 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume is 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30%, and the export volume is 41.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.07%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 60 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production is 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand is 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. The total inventory is 94,177 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [15].
广发期货有色日报-20250912
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 01:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the rate - cut space. In the short - term, the rate - cut expectation boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it shows a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply elasticity is insufficient. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand will improve marginally. Without a clear US recession expectation, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The main contract is expected to range from 79,500 to 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Although the short - term import of bauxite is tight, the new production capacity is continuously put into operation, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is under pressure, but the downside is limited as it approaches the cost zone. It is expected to oscillate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton range. It is expected to oscillate around the actual peak - season demand, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 to 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts the sentiment of bulk commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by uncertain tax policies, and the demand is slightly warming but needs verification. The inventory is still accumulating, and the import resources are limited. The ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 to 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The US inflation data improves the rate - cut expectation and boosts zinc prices. The supply side is in an upward cycle of production resumption, and the smelting profit is repaired. The demand side is about to enter the peak season, and the global inventory is low. In the short - term, zinc prices may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 21,500 to 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees are low. The actual ore output from Myanmar is expected to be postponed to the fourth quarter. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be offset by the growth in emerging fields. The spot market is divided. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the operating range from 265,000 to 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace slows down. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, with the Fed's rate - cut expectation rising and domestic policies being supportive. The raw material prices are firm, but the stainless - steel profit is in deficit, which will suppress nickel - iron. The supply is under pressure as the September production schedule is expected to increase. The demand improvement has not been significantly reflected, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market oscillates and strengthens in the afternoon with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The whole - chain de - stocking is accelerating. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main contract ranging from 70,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.54%. The spot premium and other price - related indicators also changed. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.80% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The import volume in July decreased by 1.20%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 3.14% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. The alumina prices in different regions showed slight declines [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.30%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.16% week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions increased [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.88%. The regenerative aluminum alloy inventory increased by 33.83% week - on - week [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss increased [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The import volume in July decreased by 50.35%. The galvanizing start - up rate increased by 5.98% week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 271,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 55.74% [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import decreased by 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production increased by 15.42%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,450 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.08%. The production cost of different nickel - related products changed [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The Chinese refined nickel product output increased by 1.26% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B stainless - steel price remained stable. The futures - spot price difference increased by 11.11% [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% week - on - week [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased to 72,850 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.82%. The lithium - related raw material prices also declined [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 440 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand increased by 8.25%. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% [15].
瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 08:59
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and gradually recovering demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slowly recovering demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position short - selling trades at high prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is 10 yuan, unchanged; the main contract position is 196,440 lots, up 2,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 7,105 lots, up 7,452 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.91, down 0.01 [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,933 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is - 45 yuan, down 13 yuan; the main contract position is 276,136 lots, down 4,976 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,627.50 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 485,275 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum canceled warrants are 110,250 tons, up 67,400 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,350 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is - 45 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position is 7,979 lots, up 154 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,790 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,010 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy is 500 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 40 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 3.24 US dollars/ton, down 0.53 US dollars; the basis of alumina is 77 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina output is 756.49 million tons per month, down 18.44 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.93%, down 1.09%; the total alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 722.07 million tons per month, up 25.88 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 160,494.61 tons per month, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume is 79.39 tons per month, up 15.06 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 23 million tons per month, up 6 million tons; the import volume is 12.59 million tons per month, up 2.47 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 18.31 million tons, down 9.41 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 57.60 million tons per week, up 0.40 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 248,198.71 tons per month, up 55,884.22 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons per month, unchanged [2]. - The export volume of primary aluminum is 40,987.71 tons per month, up 21,416.99 tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.11%, up 0.33% [2]. - The aluminum product output is 548.37 million tons per month, down 39 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 53.40 million tons per month, down 0.60 million tons [2]. - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 62.32 million tons per month, up 0.43 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.49 million tons per month, down 0.09 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 million tons per month, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. - The aluminum alloy output is 153.60 million tons per month, down 13.30 million tons; the automobile output is 251.02 million vehicles per month, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.04%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.91%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.59%, up 0.0027; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.08, up 0.0203 [2]. Industry News - From 2020 - 2024, the added values of China's equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries increased by an average of 7.9% and 8.7% annually, accounting for 34.6% and 16.3% of above - scale industries respectively. In 2024, the production of new energy vehicles exceeded 13 million, ranking first globally for 10 consecutive years [2]. - Since August, the central government has been promoting urban renewal. The real estate industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality + service" [2]. - China is upgrading from the "world factory" to the "global supply - chain hub". 80 national - level advanced manufacturing clusters cover high - end equipment and new energy fields, with a 37% penetration rate of AI in the logistics supply - chain [2]. - In August, the CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year. The PPI was flat month - on - month and down 2.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [2]. - The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, which may lead to Fed rate cuts [2].
盘面延续偏强,持续关注政策影响
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-07 06:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The走势 rating for casting aluminum alloy is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated last week. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 0.3% week-on-week to 20,280 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 remained flat at 20,300 yuan/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 33.1 yuan/ton to 20,025 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed to 125.3 yuan/ton [1][12]. - The scrap aluminum market remains tight in supply, with the weekly arrivals of scrap aluminum traders decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The supply of crushed primary aluminum is particularly tight, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum has significantly narrowed. Attention should be paid to the cancellation of tax rebates in Jiangxi, Anhui and other places. If the policy spreads, it may lead to aluminum enterprises lowering the purchase price of non - invoiced scrap aluminum, and the invoiced scrap aluminum and imported raw materials will be in high demand [2][15]. - On the supply side of ADC12, the operating rate of secondary aluminum plants has stabilized and rebounded due to the seasonal increase in demand, and the lifting of environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, Jiangxi and other places has also contributed to the increase. However, the subsequent operating rate is still restricted by factors such as unclear local tax refund policies, difficult scrap aluminum procurement and high raw material costs. On the demand side, as it enters the traditional peak season in September, downstream demand has shown a slight recovery, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. Attention should be paid to the risk of a lackluster peak season [2][16]. - Considering the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the significant decline in the raw material inventory of some alloy ingot factories, the cost support is relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, as the peak season for automobiles approaches, the direct impact on the demand for ADC12 is higher than that for A00. It is recommended to continuously pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 [3][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival Declining for Several Consecutive Weeks, Continuously Monitor the Implementation of Tax Rebate Cancellation Policy - Last week, the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 remained flat. The price of scrap aluminum in Guangdong remained unchanged, while the FOB price of crushed primary aluminum from Malaysia increased by 15 US dollars/ton. The cost of ADC12 decreased slightly, and the profit narrowed [1][12][13]. - The scrap aluminum market is in short supply, with the arrivals of scrap aluminum traders decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The supply of crushed primary aluminum is extremely tight, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum has significantly narrowed. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cancellation of tax rebates in Jiangxi, Anhui and other places [15]. 3.2. Recent Industry News Review - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing a positive signal of transition from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys maintained steady expansion, while secondary alloys were still below the boom - bust line [18]. - In July 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports increased by 18.68% year - on - year. Thailand and Japan were the top two suppliers [18]. - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate the implementation of policies related to investment promotion, requiring the rectification of issues such as illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [18]. - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff list [19]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Scrap Aluminum: Tight Arrivals, High Prices - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, with the arrivals of scrap aluminum traders decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum has significantly narrowed. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong in the short term due to the unclear tax rebate policy and resource scarcity [15]. 3.3.2. ADC12: Strong Prices, High Social Inventory - The price of casting aluminum alloy futures oscillated last week, with a decline of 0.3%. The spot selling price of Baotai remained at 20,300 yuan/ton, at a premium to the futures price. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 has been narrowing [16]. - On the supply side, the operating rate of secondary aluminum plants has rebounded, but is still restricted by factors such as unclear tax refund policies, difficult scrap aluminum procurement and high raw material costs. On the demand side, as it enters the traditional peak season in September, downstream demand has shown a slight recovery, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has continued to increase, while the in - plant inventory has decreased [16]. 3.3.3. Downstream: Marginal Weakening of Semi - Steel Tire Production, Be Aware of the Risk of a Lackluster Peak Season - As it enters the traditional peak season in September, downstream demand for ADC12 has shown a slight recovery, but the high - frequency data of automobile production shows that the weekly operating rate of semi -/full - steel tires has weakened, and the automobile inventory warning index has increased. Attention should be paid to the risk of a lackluster peak season [2][16].
《有色》日报-20250903
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 07:33
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macro方面,美联储表态偏鸽,市场预计9月降息概率提升,提振铜价,但后续降息幅度不确定,铜价上方空间仍面临压制 - 基本面呈现"弱现实+稳预期"状态,中长期供需矛盾提供底部支撑,铜价至少维持震荡,后续步入新的上行周期需等待铜的商品属性及金融属性共振,主力参考78500 - 81000 [1] Zinc - 上游海外矿企步入投产复产上行周期,矿端供应宽松逻辑逐步传导至冶炼端,7月国内精锌产量大增 - 需求端即将步入旺季,锌价重心下移后,现货成交好转,全球库存绝对值水平偏低给予价格支撑 - 供应端宽松预期仍存,对锌价持续上冲提供的弹性不足,短期锌价或仍以震荡运行为主,主力参考21500 - 23000 [4] Aluminum Alumina - 市场呈现"高供应、高库存、弱需求"格局,当前期价已逼近国内主流成本带,下方空间相对有限,上方驱动需等待几内亚供应扰动或情绪催化,主力合约参考区间2900 - 3200元/吨 [7] Aluminum - 宏观层面美联储降息预期升温对铝价形成外部支撑,基本面供应端产能高位但成本上升,需求端下游消费边际回暖,社会库存虽小幅累库但同比仍处低位 - 整体呈现宏观预期与基本面改善共振格局,但高价对下游采购有抑制,短期预计维持20400 - 21000元/吨区间震荡 [7] Aluminum Alloy - 供应端废铝市场供应趋紧,对成本形成支撑,近期多地税收政策调整使部分再生铝厂减产或停产 - 需求端终端消费仍偏弱,累库趋势延续,9月起市场将迎来淡旺季转换,部分压铸企业订单已出现边际回暖迹象 - 若进口比价维持,进口铝合金锭及废铝补充有限,预计现货价格保持坚挺,铝合金与铝价差有望进一步收敛,主力合约参考运行区间20000 - 20600元/吨 [8] Tin - 供应方面,现实锡矿供应维持紧张,7月国内锡矿进口环比下降,实际出矿预计延至四季度,关注缅甸锡矿恢复情况 - 需求方面,光伏抢装机结束后,部分地区订单和开工率下滑 - 受国家政策指引,市场对于国内Al需求预期向好,同时基本面延续强势,锡价偏强震荡,运行区间参考285000 - 265000 [10] Nickel - 宏观方面,美国宽松预期提振,国内反内卷背景下政策预期偏积极 - 产业层面,精炼镍现货成交尚可,矿价坚挺,镍铁价格偏强,不锈钢需求仍偏弱 - 情绪影响弱化,近期成本有一定支撑,基本面供需变动不大,价格下跌空间有限,中期供给宽松不改制约价格上方空间,短期预计盘面以区间调整为主,主力参考118000 - 126000 [11] Stainless Steel - 宏观方面,美联储降息预期升温,中美关税谈判结果落地出口压力阶段性缓和,国内政策态度偏积极 - 矿价坚挺,镍铁市场议价区间上移,钢厂生产利润修复,对于镍铁压价心态有所缓解 - 季节性和政策窗口之下需求预期改善,但目前终端需求疲软现实未改,不锈钢社会库存去化仍较慢 - 原料价格坚挺成本支撑强化,伴随旺季来临市场持谨慎乐观态度,库存压力放缓,但基本面仍受制于现货需求偏弱,短期盘面区间震荡为主,主力运行区间参考12600 - 13400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - 消息面上,关于大厂复产信息多有发酵,目前官方尚无公告 - 近期碳酸锂基本面维持紧平衡,供应收缩预期逐步兑现,需求表现稳健偏乐观,但材料产业链库存压力之下实际需求尚大幅提振仍需跟踪 - 近期利多出尽演化为情绪利空,期现共振整体交易氛围转弱,但9月底之前供应端消息尚未完全落地,基本面改善仍然为价格提供下方支撑,预计盘面价格中枢下移后宽幅震荡为主,主力区间参考7 - 7.5万 [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1电解铜现值80160元/吨,日涨260元,涨幅0.33% - 精废价差现值1852元/吨,日涨215元,涨幅13.13%等 [1] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值20元/吨,日涨30元 [1] Fundamental Data - 8月电解铜产量117.15万吨,月环比下降0.24% - 境内社会库存现值13.21万吨,周环比增长7.40%等 [1] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0锌锭现值22150元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.23% - 进口盈亏现值 - 2267元/吨,日跌64.32元 [4] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 45元/吨,日跌20元 [4] Fundamental Data - 8月精炼锌产量62.62万吨,月环比增长3.88% - 中国锌锭七地社会库存现值14.63万吨,周环比增长5.63%等 [4] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00铝现值20710元/吨,日涨90元,涨幅0.44% - 进口盈亏现值 - 1359元/吨,日跌35.7元 [7] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值15元/吨,日跌5元 [7] Fundamental Data - 8月氧化铝产量773.82万吨,月环比增长1.15% - 中国电解铝社会库存现值62.30万吨,周环比增长1.14%等 [7] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM铝合金ADC12现值20750元/吨,日涨幅0.00% - 佛山破碎生铝精废价差现值1608元/吨,日涨幅0.00% [8] Monthly Spread - 2511 - 2512现值 - 10元/吨,日涨5元 [8] Fundamental Data - 7月再生铝合金锭产量62.50万吨,月环比增长1.63% - 再生铝合金锭周度社会库存现值3.75万吨,周环比增长6.84%等 [8] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1锡现值273500元/吨,日涨1000元,涨幅0.37% - LME 0 - 3升贴水现值148美元/吨,日跌27美元,跌幅15.43% [10] Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - 进口盈亏现值 - 20382.26元/吨,日跌5.53元,跌幅0.03% [10] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 320元/吨,日涨20元,涨幅5.88% [10] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - 7月锡矿进口10278吨,月环比下降13.71% - SMM精锡7月平均开工率66.19%,月涨幅0.00%等 [10] Inventory Changes - SHEF库存周报现值7566吨,周涨75吨,涨幅1.00% [10] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1电解镍现值124050元/吨,日跌250元,跌幅0.20% - 期货进口盈亏现值 - 1504元/吨,日跌1055元,涨幅234.97% [11] Electrolytic Nickel Cost - 一体化MHP生产电积镍成本现值118531元/吨,月跌3422元,跌幅2.81% [11] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 200元/吨,日跌70元 [11] Supply and Demand and Inventory - 中国精炼镍产量现值37800吨,月涨400吨,涨幅1.26% - SHFE库存现值26943吨,周跌19吨,跌幅0.07%等 [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷)现值13200元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.38% - 期现价差现值410元/吨,日涨40元,涨幅10.81% [13] Raw Material Price - 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价现值57美元/湿吨,日涨幅0.00% - 内蒙古高碳铬铁FeCrC1000均价现值8400元/50基吨,日涨100元,涨幅1.20% [13] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 70元/吨,日跌10元 [13] Fundamental Data - 中国300系不锈钢粗钢产量(43家)现值171.33万吨,月环比下降3.83% - 300系社库(锡 + 佛)现值49.90万吨,周环比下降1.09%等 [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM电池级碳酸锂均价现值77500元/吨,日跌850元,跌幅1.08% - 锂辉石精矿CIF平均价现值887美元/吨,日跌11美元,跌幅1.22% [14] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2511现值 - 20元/吨,日涨160元 [14] Fundamental Data - 8月碳酸锂产量85240吨,月环比增长4.55% - 碳酸锂总库存(8月)现值94177吨,月环比下降3.75%等 [14]
广发期货《有色》日报-20250903
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 05:57
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macro aspect: Fed's dovish stance boosts copper price, but concerns about "stagflation" limit upside. Future rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamental aspect: It shows "weak reality + stable expectation". Demand may weaken marginally, but supply elasticity is low. With improved rate - cut expectation and domestic stimulus, copper price may at least maintain a range - bound movement and enter an upward cycle when commodity and financial attributes resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 78,500 - 81,000 [1]. Zinc - Supply: Overseas mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption. High TC encourages smelters, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. - Demand: Entering the peak season, spot trading has improved. The decline in the operating rates of primary processing industries is limited. - Outlook: Supply is expected to be loose, and the price may range - bound. Upward rebound needs better demand or non - recession rate - cut expectation, while downward breakthrough requires stronger TC or continuous inventory build - up. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum Alumina - Market situation: It presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply is under pressure from new capacity, while demand growth from electrolytic aluminum is limited. - Outlook: The price is approaching the cost range, with limited downside. Upside needs supply disruptions from Guinea or sentiment catalysts. The reference range for the main contract is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum - Macro and fundamental: Fed's rate - cut expectation and improved fundamentals support the price, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. - Outlook: It is expected to range - bound between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve, the price may fall. Tracking inventory and policy implementation is necessary [7]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply: Seasonal demand weakness and import restrictions tighten the supply of scrap aluminum, supporting costs. Tax policy adjustments lead to production cuts in some regions. - Demand: Terminal consumption is weak, but there are signs of improvement in some die - casting orders. - Outlook: If imports are limited, the spot price may remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum may narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. Domestic tin ore imports are at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be delayed to the fourth quarter. - Demand: Demand from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors has declined. - Outlook: With positive policy expectations, the price is in a strong - side range - bound movement. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it may remain high - side range - bound. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 [10]. Nickel - Macro: US easing expectation and positive domestic policy expectation. - Industry: Nickel price is stable, nickel ore price is firm, and nickel - iron price is strong. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. - Outlook: The price decline is limited by cost, and the price may range - bound. The reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Macro: Fed's rate - cut expectation and positive domestic policies ease export pressure and improve demand expectation. - Industry: Raw material prices are firm, nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, and there are supply - side disturbances in ferrochrome. Production may increase, but demand is still weak. - Outlook: Cost support is strong, but demand restricts the price. The price may range - bound, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The futures market continued to fall. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state, with supply contraction and stable demand. - Outlook: After the price center moves down, it may range - bound widely. The reference range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,160 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 220 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,150 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [4]. - The premium in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [7]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium rose to - 20 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM Southwest ADC12 price rose to 20,800 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price rose to 273,500 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium rose to 650 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 124,050 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [11]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium dropped to 2,100 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price rose to 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 77,500 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 75,200 yuan/ton, down 1.12% [14]. Month - to - Month Spreads Copper - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to 20 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to 15 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - 2511 - 2512 spread rose to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to - 320 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 200 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 70 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - 2509 - 2511 spread rose to - 20 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data Copper - August electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% [1]. Zinc - August refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% [4]. - July refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% [4]. Aluminum - August alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% [7]. - August electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [7]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% [8]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% [8]. Tin - July tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% [10]. - SMM refined tin production in July was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% [10]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production was 37,800 tons, up 1.26% [11]. - Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, down 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% [13]. - Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 36.00 million tons, unchanged [13]. Lithium Carbonate - August lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% [14]. - August lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% [14].