（来源：矿权资源网） 来源：矿权资源网 【长江现货金属点评：铝价微幅走强 多数品种承压调整】 截至2026年1月9日上午，长江现货市场基本金属价格走势分化。A00铝成为日内唯一上涨品种，而铜、 锌、铅、锡、镍价格均出现不同幅度下跌，其中镍、锡跌幅尤为显著，市场整体情绪偏于谨慎。 以下为各品种具体分析： 镍价深度调整：长江现货1#镍报143,850元/吨，大幅下跌6,200元。镍价波动剧烈，领跌基本金属。这主 要归因于其金融属性较强，对美元及利率预期变化极为敏感。同时，市场对二级镍供应过剩的长期忧虑 持续存在，价格在宏观利空下出现深度调整。 【今日基本金属为何全线下跌？】 今日市场整体受到短期强势美元及宏观情绪转淡的影响，金属价格普遍承压。铝因其突出的基本面逻 辑，成为日内唯一收红品种。多数品种的下跌，更多是前期价格上涨后叠加宏观因素引发的技术性调 整。投资者需关注晚间公布的美国非农就业数据，其结果或将指引短期市场方向。中长期来看，全球宽 松周期预期与部分品种的供应瓶颈，仍将为金属市场提供结构性支撑。全球金融市场正处于宏观逻辑主 导下的关键节点。市场谨慎情绪与对美联储政策的重新定价，共同塑造了当前的资产价格格局 ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 13, 2026 [2] - **Data Source**: Wind Financial Terminal, Steel Union Data Terminal [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the document. 2. Core View The document mainly presents the basis rate statistics of various futures on February 13, 2026, including the basis rate changes, spot prices, and futures contract prices of multiple commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, steel, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.62%, the spot price is 102,040, and the settlement price of the main contract is 102,680. The basis decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous day [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is - 1.10%, the spot price is 23,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 23,610 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.45%, the spot price is 24,480, and the settlement price of the main contract is 24,590 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is - 0.99%, the spot price is 16,575, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,740 [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.37%, the spot price is 391,650, and the settlement price of the main contract is 393,120 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 3.58%, the spot price is 140,780, and the settlement price of the main contract is 140,320 [3]. - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main contract basis rate is 11.31%, the spot price is 9,300, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,290 [3]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.28%, the spot price is 1,126.12, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,129.74 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is - 4.63%, the spot price is 19,670, and the settlement price of the main contract is 20,626 [3]. Steel - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 5.25%, the spot price is 3,050, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,096 [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is 0.37%, the spot price is 3,218, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,237 [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract basis rate is 5.94%, the spot price is 807.3, and the settlement price of the main contract is 762.0 [3]. - Coke (J): The main contract basis rate is - 3.5%, the spot price is 1,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,664.0 [3]. - Coking Coal: The main contract basis rate is 9.60%, the spot price is 1,227.5, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,120.0 [3]. - Power Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is 0.50%, the spot price is 711.0, and the settlement price of the main contract is 801.4 [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The main contract basis rate is - 4.00%, the spot price is 5,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,500 [3]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The main contract basis rate is 2.07%, the spot price is 5,800, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,842 [3]. - Stainless Steel (SS): The main contract basis rate is 1.29%, the spot price is 14,150, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,975 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 143,450, and the settlement price of the main contract is 147,340 [3]. - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.38%, the spot price is 2,223, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,231 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is - 0.14%, the spot price is 3,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,830 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.48%, the spot price is 5,195, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,220 [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract basis rate is 3.04%, the spot price is 6,850, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,648 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 2.04%, the spot price is 7,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,415 [3]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The main contract basis rate is - 0.03%, the spot price is 6,620, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,616 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 0.24%, the spot price is 6,750, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,734 [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract basis rate is - 3.40%, the spot price is 4,770, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,938 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 16,400, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,450 [3]. - 20 - Standard Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is - 0.09%, the spot price is 13,736, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,405 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is - 4.30%, the spot price is 1,112, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,162 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is - 1.79%, the spot price is 1,810, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,843 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 2.14%, the spot price is 5,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,238 [3]. - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is - 4.70%, the spot price is 454.4, and the settlement price of the main contract is 478.1 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 8.99%, the spot price is 3,148, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,888 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 3,210, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,348 [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 0.89%, the spot price is 3,379, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,355 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 11.17%, the spot price is 4,748, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,447 [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: The main contract basis rate is - 11.2%, the spot price is 4,100, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,613 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 9.68%, the spot price is 3,060, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,790 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 8.55%, the spot price is 2,263, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,303 [3]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The main contract basis rate is 5.91%, the spot price is 8,560, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,082 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): The main contract basis rate is 9.65%, the spot price is 9,920, and the settlement price of the main contract is 9,047 [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract basis rate is 15.78%, the spot price is 9,200, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,938 [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract basis rate is 1.34%, the spot price is 8,900, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,782 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 0.86%, the spot price is 2,340, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,320 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 1.48%, the spot price is 2,610, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,642 [3]. - Apple (AP): The main contract basis rate is - 1.22%, the spot price is 8,209, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,300 [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract basis rate is 14.85%, the spot price is 3,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,444 [3]. - Live Pig (LH): The main contract basis rate is 7.02%, the spot price is 12,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 11,540 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.65%, the spot price is 14,790, and the settlement price of the main contract is 14,855 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 2.21%, the spot price is 5,370, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,254 [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 0.06%, the spot price is 4,719.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,719.4 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is - 0.11%, the spot price is 3,079.7, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,082.8 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 8,423.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,448.2 [3].

| 品名 | 价格区间 均价 | | 涨跌 日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A00铝 | 23180-23140 | 23160 | -190 02-13 | | 1#铜 | 100410-100390 | 100400 | -1800 02-13 | | 铝 | 16550-16450 | 16500 | -75 ↓ 02-13 | | 0#锌 | 24850-23850 | 24350 | -120 02-13 | | 1#f字 | 24300-24200 | 24250 | -120 02-13 | | 锡 | 379650-377650 | | 378650 - - 12900 + 02-13 | | 美 | 141700-138700 140200 | | -5250 02-13 | 2月13日有色宝长江A00铝23140～23180均价23160跌190,前三日均价23297,前五日均价23284 2月13日有色宝长江A00铝23140～23180均价23160跌190,前三日均价23297,前五日均价23284 | 品名 | 价格区间 > | 均价 | 日期 涨 ...

Price Trends - The average price of Nanhai Nonferrous Aluminum in Foshan on February 3 is reported at 23,520, with a decrease of 360 [1][2] - The average price of Guangdong Nanchu South China Aluminum is 23,310, down by 400 [1][2] - China Hongqiao Aluminum's average price is 23,420, reflecting a decline of 410 [1][2] - The Shanghai spot aluminum price averages at 23,290, also down by 410 [1][2] Price Ranges - The price range for Nanhai Nonferrous Aluminum in Foshan is between 23,470 and 23,570 [1][2] - Guangdong Nanchu South China Aluminum has a price range of 23,280 to 23,340 [1][2] - The price range for Shanghai spot aluminum is between 23,270 and 23,310 [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The market for basic metals is experiencing significant divergence, with copper and zinc showing strong performance while aluminum, lead, and tin are under pressure, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and fundamental factors [1][6]. Group 1: Copper and Zinc Performance - Copper prices surged by 1,820 yuan to an average of 104,600 yuan/ton, driven by strong supply-demand gap expectations, with low global inventories and increased demand from sectors like energy transition and electric vehicles [1]. - Zinc prices increased by 510 yuan to an average of 25,820 yuan/ton, supported by concerns over supply due to energy costs in Europe and seasonal maintenance in domestic mines, alongside pre-holiday stocking by downstream users [2]. Group 2: Aluminum, Lead, and Tin Trends - Aluminum prices slightly decreased by 200 yuan to an average of 24,660 yuan/ton, with a relatively stable supply-demand structure, but traditional consumption in construction remains weak, limiting upward momentum [2]. - Tin prices plummeted by 11,750 yuan to an average of 423,750 yuan/ton, attributed to profit-taking after previous overestimation of demand from AI and semiconductors, alongside reduced purchasing activity before the holiday [3]. - Lead prices fell by 150 yuan to an average of 16,850 yuan/ton, reflecting a weak supply-demand balance, with stable recycled lead production and stagnant demand from traditional battery sectors [4]. Group 3: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices fluctuated downwards, decreasing by 2,050 yuan to an average of 145,850 yuan/ton, with a long-term oversupply situation due to increased production in Indonesia, despite some demand from electric vehicle batteries [5]. Group 4: Macro Sentiment and Market Overview - Market sentiment is influenced by external factors, with a weak US dollar providing support for metals priced in RMB, while concerns over tech sector capital expenditures have affected certain metal prices [6]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is leading to reduced physical procurement activities, shifting market focus from fundamentals to macro sentiment and capital dynamics, with a notable divergence in metal performance [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position short - term long strategy at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand. The aluminum price remains high due to macro - expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to trade with a light - position short - term long strategy at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of sufficient supply and weak demand. Due to cost support, the cast aluminum price remains in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to trade with a light - position short - term long strategy at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,215.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan; the main contract position is 322,085.00 hands, down 18,490.00 hands. The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contract is - 155.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 3,173.50 US dollars/ton, up 41.00 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 507,275.00 tons, down 2000.00 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.63, down 0.12 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,732.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; the main contract position is 488,440.00 hands, down 6325.00 hands. The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contract is - 138.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,010.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; the main contract position is 11,389.00 hands, down 5206.00 hands. The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contract is - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 24,030.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 24,130.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 180.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 3.75 US dollars/ton, up 15.23 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan. The basis of alumina is - 177.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 24,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 990.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina import volume is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons; the alumina export volume is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons. The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,650.00 yuan/ton, up 250.00 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 18,150.00 yuan/ton, up 250.00 yuan. The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in China is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the primary aluminum export volume is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons. The electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 71.50 million tons, up 0.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 68.40 million tons, down 1.60 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 23.56%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.88%, up 0.06%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option is 23.97%, up 0.0385%. The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.72, up 0.0027 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the US, the January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value of 51.8; the services PMI preliminary value is flat at 52.5, and the composite PMI preliminary value rises slightly to 52.8, all slightly lower than expected [2]. - In the Eurozone, the January Manufacturing PMI preliminary value rebounds slightly to 49.4, still in the contraction range; the services PMI preliminary value drops to 51.9, lower than expected. In Germany, both the manufacturing and services PMIs rebound more than expected. In France, the manufacturing PMI rises to a nearly four - year high of 51, but the services PMI slows sharply to 47.9 [2]. - The National Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Work Conference emphasizes promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, implementing the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and promoting large - scale consumption such as automobiles and home furnishings. It also focuses on cultivating new growth points in service consumption and new types of consumption [2]. - Jiangsu Province will continue to promote large - scale equipment updates and optimize the implementation of the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones in 2026, with specific subsidy standards for different types of products [2]. - In 2026, the automobile replacement subsidy in Chongqing is open for application, with the first - batch of funds of 185 million yuan. Consumers can get subsidies according to 8% or 6% of the new - car sales price [2]. - In Beijing, the number of new - energy vehicles exceeds 1.3 million, and the proportion of new - energy and "National V - standard" or above vehicles exceeds 80%. In 2025, Beijing implemented policies to scrap and update old trucks and large - and medium - sized buses, and made progress in the new - energy vehicle field [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a state of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of convergent supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,950 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,671 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 128 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] - The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 332,750 lots, down 4,347 lots; the position of the alumina main contract was 502,994 lots, up 12,005 lots [2] - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 32,750 tons, unchanged; the total alumina inventory was 217,143 tons, up 21,062 tons [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,158.50 US dollars/ton, up 24.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 485,000 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was - 55,719 lots, up 3,251 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.58, down 0.10 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,765 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2] - The position of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 19,520 lots, down 685 lots; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cast aluminum alloy was 74,160 tons, up 872 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai Aluminum were 139,951 tons, down 1,524 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,850 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,680 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,565 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,830 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,085 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 15.60 US dollars/ton, up 6.75 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina was - 106 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region was 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate was 83.32%, down 1.05 percentage points [2] - The alumina output was 813.80 tons, up 27.30 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 85.00%, down 1.51 percentage points [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 705.96 tons, down 24.27 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 26.58 tons, down 11.40 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] - The alumina export volume was 21.00 tons, up 4.00 tons; the alumina import volume was 22.78 tons, down 0.46 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 tons, up 8.34 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 71.20 tons, up 1.40 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,536.20 tons, up 12.00 tons [2] - The primary aluminum export volume was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.31%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - The aluminum product output was 593.10 tons, up 23.70 tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.40 tons, down 1.60 tons [2] - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 54.00 tons, down 3.00 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.55 tons, down 0.51 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 tons, unchanged; the National Real Estate Climate Index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The aluminum alloy output was 173.90 tons, unchanged; the automobile output was 341.20 tons, down 10.70 tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days was 23.30%, up 0.18 percentage points; the historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 40 days was 18.63%, down 0.11 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21.05%, down 0.0405 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.81, up 0.0807 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In 2025, China implemented a series of more proactive macro - policies, promoting economic structural optimization and upgrading. Service retail sales increased by 5.5% compared with the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate of service retail sales has rebounded for 4 consecutive months since September [2] - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The per capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% compared with the previous year [2] - In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year [2] - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts for China, the United States, the euro area, and Japan in 2026 [2] - Five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automobiles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals by 2030 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market for basic metals is under pressure due to a strong US dollar and shifting macroeconomic sentiment, with aluminum being the only metal to show a slight increase in price [4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Copper prices have significantly retreated, with 1 copper reported at 100,680 yuan/ton, down 1,940 yuan from the previous day, primarily due to macroeconomic sentiment and adjustments in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2]. - Aluminum prices have shown resilience, with A00 aluminum at 24,030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, supported by a clear long-term supply-demand structure and relatively low social inventory levels [2]. - Zinc prices have slightly weakened, with 0 and 1 zinc at 24,050 yuan/ton and 23,950 yuan/ton respectively, both down 150 yuan, reflecting concerns over weak demand in traditional sectors [2]. - Lead prices have also declined, with 1 lead at 17,350 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan, amid a lack of consumer demand and a cautious market atmosphere [2]. - Tin prices have corrected from previous highs, with 1 tin at 351,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and uncertainty regarding semiconductor demand recovery [3]. - Nickel prices have seen a significant drop, with 1 nickel at 143,850 yuan/ton, down 6,200 yuan, due to its sensitivity to changes in the dollar and interest rate expectations, alongside concerns over oversupply [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - The market is currently experiencing a cautious sentiment influenced by a strong dollar and technical adjustments following previous price increases, with aluminum standing out due to its strong fundamental logic [4]. - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which could guide short-term market direction [4]. - The potential for a short-term rebound in metal prices may arise from factors such as weaker-than-expected non-farm data, which could reignite expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and lead to a dollar decline [5]. - Technical adjustments following index rebalancing may alleviate some selling pressure in the market [6]. - Geopolitical tensions could trigger safe-haven demand, potentially impacting metal prices [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand. The aluminum price remains high - oscillating due to positive macro expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,335.00 yuan/ton, up 690.00 yuan; the main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum was 253,076.00 hands, down 8056.00 hands. The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,818.00 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan; the main contract position of alumina was 429,905.00 hands, up 19,914.00 hands. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,995.00 yuan/ton, up 475.00 yuan; the main contract position of cast aluminum alloy was 20,162.00 hands, up 1,863.00 hands [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 130.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 250.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,085.50 US dollars/ton, up 64.50 US dollars; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.89, up 0.06 [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 59,275.00 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 506,750.00 tons, down 2,500.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventories were 129,818.00 tons, up 1,310.00 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 73,793.00 tons, up 553.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE warrants were 84,204.00 tons, up 1,408.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,910.00 yuan/ton, up 600.00 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,100.00 yuan/ton, up 650.00 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,340.00 yuan/ton, up 610.00 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 505.00 yuan/ton, down 205.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 425.00 yuan/ton, down 90.00 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 208.00 yuan/ton, down 48.00 yuan [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wuma Aluminum premium/discount was - 220.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 27.69 US dollars/ton, down 2.75 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices and Quantities**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,200.00 yuan/ton, up 700.00 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,450.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan. China's import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2]. - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate was 83.32%, down 1.05%; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 86.51%, down 0.45% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 66.20 million tons, up 7.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - **Import and Export**: The import quantity of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy was 173.90 million tons, unchanged; the production of automobiles was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 19.03%, up 1.98%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 15.44%, up 1.49% [2]. - **Implied Volatility and Ratio**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25.26%, up 0.0366; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.64, down 0.0467 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024 [2]. - Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the improvement of the industrial ecosystem, cultivation of application scenarios, and exploration of business models for new technologies and products such as robots and drones [2]. - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to implement the green consumption promotion action, with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the new - energy vehicle wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers in December 2025 was 1.57 million, a 4% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 was 15.33 million, a 25% year - on - year increase [2]. - Gree Electric Appliance promised not to raise the price of household air - conditioners and had no plan for "aluminum instead of copper" [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].