【长江现货金属点评：铝价微幅走强 多数品种承压调整】 截至2026年1月9日上午，长江现货市场基本金属价格走势分化。A00铝成为日内唯一上涨品种，而铜、 锌、铅、锡、镍价格均出现不同幅度下跌，其中镍、锡跌幅尤为显著，市场整体情绪偏于谨慎。 以下为各品种具体分析： 铜价显著回调：长江现货1#铜报100,680元/吨，较前一日下跌1,940元。价格回调主要受短期宏观情绪压 制，强势美元与市场对美联储降息节奏预期的调整，对金融属性较强的铜价形成直接压力。尽管长期供 应紧张逻辑未变，但节后需求进入传统淡季，短期价格面临调整压力。 铝价独获支撑：长江现货A00铝报24,030元/吨，微涨30元。在多数品种下跌的背景下，铝价展现出较强 韧性。这主要得益于其明确的长期供需格局（能源约束供应、新能源需求支撑）以及相对较低的社会库 存水平，价格底部支撑坚实。 锌价小幅走弱：长江现货0#锌及1#锌分别报24,050元/吨和23,950元/吨，均下跌150元。锌价走势反映了 当前市场对传统领域需求偏弱的担忧。在供应端相对平稳的情况下，价格上行缺乏强劲驱动，短期以跟 随宏观情绪震荡为主。 铅价同步回落：长江现货1#铅报17,350元 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 24,335.00 253,076.00 | +690.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -8056.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 2,818.00 429,905.00 | +48.00↑ +19914.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -110.00 | -20.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -130.00 | -15.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 59,275.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 193,354.00 | -3618.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | 3,085.50 -38,843.00 | +64.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） -16451.00↓ 沪伦比值 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].

铝类产业日报 2025/12/22 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22,220.00 | +35.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,498.00 | -2.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -120.00 314,299.00 | -10.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -794.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -111.00 151,207.00 | +16.00↑ -11147.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 73,800.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 197,566.00 | -61270.00↓ | | | LME电解铝三个月 ...

【铝市场消息速递】 截至11月19日，A00铝价日均价为21830元/吨，环比涨幅0.41%，同比涨幅10.98%。 LME铝期货行情回顾： 12月19日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铝 2917.5 2960.0 2909.5 2955.5 1.32% 北京时间12月22日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格偏强运行，今日开盘报2955美元/吨，现报2951 美元/吨，涨幅0.20%，盘中最高触及2958美元/吨，最低下探2944.5美元/吨。 12月19日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.51，进口盈亏：-2148.39元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-2040.57元/ 吨。 12月19日，伦敦金属交易所：铝注册仓单445800吨。注销仓单73800吨，持平。铝库存519600吨，持 平。 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

今日金属市场行情更新，长江市场铜价表现强劲，1铜的现货价格升至91260元 A00铝的市场表现也呈现上升趋势，当前报价为22020元/吨，较之前上涨了220元/吨。 广东现货市场铜价略有差异，1铜价报91090元 伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价小幅攀升，当前价格为11496美元/吨，较昨日增长了9美元/吨。 沪铜期货市场也表现出上涨趋势，2601合约价格上涨至91100元/吨，涨幅为2130元/吨；2602合约价格则为91150元/吨，涨幅达到了2170元/吨。 各地废铜价格动态 湖南市场 在湖南，废铜的行情有所上涨。 二号铜：含铜量92-93%，价格在77900至78300元/吨，较前一交易日上涨了1300元。 1废铜 破碎黄铜：含铁量低于4%，价格53850至54250元/吨，上涨1000元。 黄杂铜：进口，价格49650至50050元/吨，涨幅500元。 紫铜砖：含铜量93%，价格区间77350至77750元/吨，上涨1300元。 1光亮铜线 清远市场 广东清远地区的废铜价格同样呈上升趋势： 二号铜：含铜量93-94%，价格区间76000至76400元/吨，涨幅1450元。 马达铜：含铜量91-93%，价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, suggest light - position oscillatory trading, control rhythm and trading risks due to factors like supply and demand changes and technical indicators [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, recommend light - position oscillatory trading, pay attention to rhythm and trading risks considering supply - demand situation and option market sentiment [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, advocate light - position oscillatory trading, control rhythm and trading risks based on raw material supply, supply - demand and technical analysis [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,910 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 75 yuan, up 10 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai aluminum is 258,440 hands, down 7,183 hands. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,888 US dollars/ton, up 23 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 537,900 tons, down 1,150 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.59, down 0.05 [2]. - **Alumina Contracts**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 85 yuan, up 1 yuan. The main contract position of alumina is 358,708 hands, down 1,212 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Contracts**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,095 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 115 yuan, down 60 yuan. The main contract position is 15,759 hands, up 12,052 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,730 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 21,730 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The Shanghai Material Trade aluminum premium/discount is - 60 yuan, unchanged. The LME aluminum premium/discount is - 27.51 US dollars/ton, down 1.56 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Base - related Data**: The base of cast aluminum alloy is 405 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the base of electrolytic aluminum is - 180 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the base of alumina is 100 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Supply - demand**: The monthly output of alumina is 786.50 million tons, down 13.40%. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap is 16,700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. China's import of aluminum scrap and fragments is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; export is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: The export of alumina is 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import is 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged. The production of electrolytic aluminum is affected by winter environmental protection and seasonal demand, showing a slight decline [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output of aluminum products is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons. The export of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Industry**: The monthly output of automobiles is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 10.66%, down 0.30%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.72%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.04%, up 0.0081. The call - put ratio is 1.69, up 0.0507 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US November ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, below the boom - bust line of 50 for nine consecutive months [2]. - In November, BYD's new - energy vehicle sales were 480,200 units. Zero - Run's total delivery reached 70,327 units, up over 75% year - on - year. Other auto companies also had different sales performances [2]. - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5 [2]. - The production schedule of the three major white - goods in December 2025 is 30.18 million units, down 14.1% compared with the same period last year [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract oscillates downward, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Supply may gradually converge due to profit issues, and demand shows some resilience. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates stronger, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. Supply decreases slightly, and demand has some resilience due to end - of - year factors. The option market sentiment is bullish. Recommend light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract oscillates, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. Supply may decline due to raw material shortage, and demand has some support from end - of - year consumption. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a new annual high of 22,100 yuan/ton, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since late October, aluminum prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the average price for October at 21,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.40% [2]. - As of November 10, the average price for domestic A00 aluminum was 21,500 yuan/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a rise of 690 yuan/ton from the October low, representing a 3.32% increase [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Support - Key macroeconomic factors supporting aluminum prices include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which alleviated global liquidity pressures and improved market risk appetite [3]. - The consensus reached in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, including the reduction of certain aluminum product tariffs, has eased concerns about export restrictions, benefiting aluminum processing enterprises [3]. - The stabilization of energy costs due to a calming geopolitical situation in the Middle East further supports the aluminum industry [3]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply-demand balance is tight, with significant constraints on the supply side, particularly due to transportation limitations in the northwest region during the heating season, leading to reduced aluminum ingot shipments to East China [4]. - The operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached the policy limit of 45 million tons, with limited new capacity additions, maintaining a high operating rate of over 96% [4]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The demand side is showing signs of differentiation, with overall demand in October being strong but expected to decline as the industry transitions into the off-season in November [5]. - The construction sector is experiencing reduced activity due to winter conditions, while demand in the aluminum cable sector remains stable, albeit with slower order uptake due to rising aluminum prices [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to experience a high-level oscillation from November to December, with prices supported by macroeconomic factors but facing downward pressure from declining demand [6][7]. - The projected price range for A00 aluminum is between 20,500 yuan/ton and 22,000 yuan/ton, with potential for new highs in November followed by a gradual weakening towards the end of the month and into December [7].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum sector is experiencing a price increase, with significant gains in stock prices for major companies like China Aluminum and China Hongqiao, driven by rising aluminum prices and favorable macroeconomic conditions [1] Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - Recent data indicates that aluminum prices have been fluctuating positively, with a strong upward trend since late October, reaching new highs for the year [1] - As of November 10, the average domestic spot A00 aluminum price was 21,490 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a rise of 690 yuan/ton, or 3.32%, from the October low [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Factors supporting high aluminum prices include the upcoming U.S.-China tariff window, ongoing overseas supply disruptions, and expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - Low inventory levels are also contributing to the sustained high prices in the aluminum market [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Bank of America Securities highlights that while overseas markets face electricity shortages and rising electricity costs, China has a sufficient power supply, which is expected to enhance its cost advantage in the coming years [1] - China's aluminum supply has reached a cap of 45 million tons, which is anticipated to support domestic aluminum prices and drive profit margins for companies from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The aluminum sector is viewed as attractive for investment, particularly in the context of developments in artificial intelligence and data centers, which are expected to further enhance the sector's valuation [1]