1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: For caustic soda, it is expected to be strongly volatile; for alumina, it is expected to be in low - level oscillation, and for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to be strongly volatile [23][24][26] - Medium - to - long - term: For caustic soda, pay attention to the demand increase brought by the commissioning of new alumina production capacity and the recovery of downstream operation, and consider going long on dips if the operation is smooth; for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to be strongly volatile under the quantitative easing environment, and alumina will be in wide - range low - level oscillation without large - scale production cuts [24][27] 2. Core View - The current strong performance of caustic soda futures is due to reduced exports from the Middle East, upcoming traditional demand season, new alumina production capacity, and approaching maintenance season. Alumina has an obvious supply surplus, and its price is under pressure. Electrolytic aluminum's supply is affected by the Middle East situation, and demand is picking up [23][26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Aluminum Industry Chain Related Variety Price and Basis Trends - The report presents the trends of domestic alumina, cast aluminum alloy, caustic soda, and aluminum spot and futures prices and their basis [5][6] 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - As of March 6, the weekly operating rate of caustic soda enterprises was 86.4%, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, and the weekly output was 855,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase. The weekly inventory was 55,000 tons, a 9,100 - ton increase [9] 3.3 Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of February 27, the bauxite port inventory was 26.1449 million tons, 602,300 tons more than before the holiday. As of the end of January, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.54 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 2.54 - million - ton increase year - on - year [12] 3.4 Alumina Supply - As of March 6, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 82.62%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the weekly output was 1.783 million tons, a 2,000 - ton decrease. The total inventory was 5.722 million tons, a 37,000 - ton increase from the previous week [15] 3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of January, China's primary aluminum production was 3.786 million metric tons. As of the end of February, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.94%. As of the end of December last year, the inventory was 644,000 tons [18] 3.6 Major Three - Exchange Aluminum Inventory Trends - As of March 5, the LME aluminum inventory was 459,100 tons, a decrease of 8,425 tons from last Friday; the SHFE aluminum inventory was 356,000 tons, an increase of 58,600 tons from last Friday; the COMEX aluminum inventory was 4,401 metric tons, a decrease of 1,043 metric tons from last week. Overall, the global major three - exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to accumulate this week [21][22] 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Caustic soda: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the demand increase brought by the commissioning of new alumina production capacity and the recovery of downstream operation, and consider going long on dips if the operation is smooth [23][24] - Alumina, SHFE aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy: In the short - term, alumina is in low - level oscillation, and SHFE aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are strongly volatile. In the medium - to - long - term, SHFE aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are expected to be strongly volatile under the quantitative easing environment, and alumina will be in wide - range low - level oscillation without large - scale production cuts [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is showing resilience despite macroeconomic pressures, with various factors influencing its price dynamics, including supply constraints, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical risks [1][2][5]. Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000, leading to a drop in the unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.3%, which has altered interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - The supply side remains tight, with major overseas mines still in a phase of resuming operations, and domestic copper concentrate processing fees dropping to around -50 USD, indicating a scarcity of copper resources [3][4]. - The Democratic Republic of the Congo, as the second-largest copper producer, is expected to increase its copper exports by nearly 10% to 3.4 million tons in 2025, providing some relief to the global copper market, but overall supply remains constrained [3]. Demand Trends - Demand has slowed down as the Chinese New Year approaches, with downstream enterprises reducing procurement activities, leading to an increase in social inventory of electrolytic copper to around 330,000 tons, a high for the past five years [4]. - The long-term demand outlook remains positive due to structural needs driven by clean energy transitions and advancements in artificial intelligence [4]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors have significantly impacted copper prices, with frequent mining accidents and operational disruptions, alongside escalating geopolitical tensions, heightening concerns over copper supply [5][6]. - Strategic initiatives by countries to secure copper resources, such as China's proposal to enhance its copper resource reserve system and the U.S. plan for a $12 billion "stockpile initiative," are expected to support long-term copper price stability [5][6]. Market Outlook - In the short term, copper prices are expected to consolidate due to low trading activity and economic slowdown during the holiday season, with strong support anticipated in the range of 98,000 to 103,000 RMB per ton [7]. - Long-term trends suggest that the tight supply of global copper resources and increasing structural demand will likely lead to a continued upward trajectory in copper prices, with potential for a new rally post-holiday [7].

Industry Overview - The core logic supporting the surge in aluminum prices is a tight balance between supply and demand, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaching 44.46 million tons, nearing the 45 million tons capacity ceiling, and only an estimated 550,000 tons of new capacity expected by 2026 [1] - On the supply side, projects in Indonesia and India are experiencing slow capacity release due to power and political factors, with an expected annual increase of only 1.3 million tons [1] - Demand is being driven by the accelerated "aluminum replacing copper" trend in the air conditioning and home appliance sectors, as well as new demand from emerging fields such as AI and energy storage [1] Company Insights - Xinjiang Zhonghe's main products include high-purity aluminum, electronic aluminum foil, electrode foil, aluminum products, and alloy products, with a market share of approximately 40% for high-purity aluminum [3] - China Aluminum has the largest alumina production capacity in the world [4]

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, leading to increased market risk aversion, which has negatively impacted aluminum prices, with LME aluminum closing at $2,941 per ton, down $15 or 0.49% [1][2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remains stable, with no significant disruptions, while downstream operations have declined, leading to weaker consumption as the New Year approaches [2][3] - The overall aluminum consumption situation is still acceptable due to resilient demand from the new energy sector, although high aluminum prices are dampening downstream purchasing enthusiasm [2][3] Group 2 - The trading volume in the aluminum futures market has decreased, with LME aluminum trading volume dropping by 6,526 contracts to 15,068 contracts [1] - The current social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has not fully entered the accumulation phase and remains at a low level, providing some support for aluminum prices [2] - Short-term forecasts indicate a potential decline in spot aluminum prices due to weakening consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - In the first week of December, aluminum prices surged significantly, reaching a historical high of 22,080 yuan per ton, marking an increase of approximately 640 yuan per ton from the average price of 21,440 yuan on November 28, the highest in nearly three years [2][5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price increase is driven by a tight balance between supply and demand, with supply constrained by a rigid production capacity limit of 45 million tons, leading to near-full operational capacity [2][5] - The high proportion of direct aluminum supply and the scarcity of deliverable aluminum ingots have resulted in a complete loss of supply elasticity [2][5] - On the demand side, there is an explosive demand from emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic energy storage, coupled with year-end stocking, which further supports the price amid low inventory levels [2][5] Macroeconomic Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar have created a favorable macroeconomic environment that catalyzes the rise in aluminum prices [2][6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The price of scrap aluminum has shown a steady increase this week, with fluctuations ranging from 0 to 100 yuan/ton, while alloy white materials and spray coatings performed slightly better than primary aluminum and aluminum scrap [1] - The domestic recycled aluminum alloy market has seen the A00 aluminum ingot price drop to an average of 21,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to November 20 [2] - The market for casting aluminum alloy futures initially declined but later rebounded, with prices returning above 20,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 2: Raw Material and Pricing Analysis - The scrap aluminum market has experienced a slowdown in price fluctuations, with prices for bright aluminum wire remaining stable between 18,500 and 19,000 yuan/ton [5] - The price of easy-open cans has remained stable, ranging from 15,700 to 16,300 yuan/ton, with a preference for these resources among aluminum enterprises due to low silicon prices [7] - The price of primary aluminum has remained relatively stable, with fluctuations between 16,300 and 17,000 yuan/ton, influenced by varying purchasing attitudes among aluminum enterprises [9] Group 3: Cost and Profit Analysis - The cost of ADC12 has seen a slight increase in the proportion of scrap aluminum usage, rising to 92.1% [11] - The production cost of ADC12 in East China is reported at 20,397.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan/ton, while South China remains stable at 21,043.8 yuan/ton [13] - The profit for domestic casting aluminum alloy ingots has decreased to -22.7 yuan/ton, a drop of 63.6 yuan/ton compared to November 20 [15] Group 4: Market Outlook - The aluminum alloy market is expected to continue its narrow range fluctuations, with limited price movements anticipated due to macroeconomic controls and weak demand [17] - The overall market sentiment has slightly improved, with expectations of a stable aluminum price range due to normal supply and moderate demand [19] - The forecast for next week suggests that the casting aluminum alloy prices may remain stable within a narrow range, with futures prices expected to fluctuate between 20,500 and 20,900 yuan/ton [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tight supply of scrap aluminum provides strong support for the market. Despite the serious over - capacity and low operating rate in the recycled aluminum industry, the scrap aluminum supply shortage and the delayed arrival of the scrap peak in 2 - 3 years give a solid foundation to the market. There is a potential for a soft squeeze - out situation in the ADC12 market if the peak - season demand is fulfilled and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3][14][19]. - In terms of investment strategies, an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be considered currently, with profit expected to be realized in October. For unilateral trading, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Objects and Purposes - The research objects are 5 recycled aluminum plants and 2 scrap aluminum recyclers in Nantong, Baoying, Kunshan, and Shanghai. The purpose is to discuss aspects such as production capacity, output, scrap aluminum supply and demand, costs, prices, inventory strategies, and hedging intentions after the listing of aluminum alloy futures, and to think about subsequent trading logic [10]. 3.2. Key Research Findings and Analyses 3.2.1. Scrap Aluminum Procurement - Scrap aluminum procurement is tight due to limited imports (US tariff policies, port congestion in Malaysia, and environmental regulations in Thailand), limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and some large factories only purchasing from large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers to avoid information asymmetry risks [14][17]. 3.2.2. Production and Operation - The surveyed recycled aluminum plants have an operating rate higher than the industry average, with an aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio of over 50 - 60% and a maximum transportation distance of 300km. The ADC12 production ratio is around 40 - 50%, and orders are mainly long - term contracts. There is a potential soft squeeze - out risk in the ADC12 market [18][19]. - The use ratio of raw and cooked aluminum in scrap aluminum is flexibly adjusted according to prices. The natural gas consumption per ton is 80 cubic meters, and the total processing fee is 800 - 1200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive tax burden in Jiangsu and Shanghai is about 2 percentage points higher than that in Anhui, but some enterprises can make up for this cost through local procurement and sales, and product quality premiums [23][24]. - The raw material inventory of surveyed enterprises is generally 7 - 10 days' usage, and the finished product inventory is about 1000 - 1500 tons, with some enterprises having no finished product inventory but a high aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio [25]. 3.2.3. Warehouse Receipts - Currently, surveyed enterprises are open to delivering warehouse receipts but are mostly in a wait - and - see mode, mainly referring to the futures price and basis in September - October. The storage time of ADC12 alloy ingots is limited, and the high standards of futures delivery products may reduce the willingness of downstream enterprises to take delivery from the futures market [27]. 3.3. Investment Recommendations 3.3.1. Arbitrage - Consider the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL. The current price difference between ADC12 and A00 fluctuates between - 1500 yuan and + 500 yuan/ton, and the profit is expected to be realized in October. In the long - term, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may gradually decrease [28]. 3.3.2. Unilateral Trading - Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. The tight scrap aluminum supply and the potential for a soft squeeze - out situation provide support for long - side trading [3][29]. 3.4. Research Minutes 3.4.1. Aluminum Alloy Plant A - Raw materials are mainly domestic scrap aluminum, with less than 20% imported. The annual production capacity is 24.99 tons, and the annual output is 22 tons. The ADC12 production ratio is over 40%. The enterprise does not stock finished products and sells based on orders [30]. 3.4.2. Aluminum Alloy Plant B - The import ratio of scrap aluminum is 30%, and the domestic ratio is 70%. The designed annual production capacity is 20 tons, and the current annual output is 7 - 8 tons. The enterprise plans to use a new production line for futures delivery products [33]. 3.4.3. Aluminum Alloy Plant C - Raw materials are mainly domestic. The Baoying base has a production capacity of 11.85 tons. The aluminum liquid ratio is over 60%, and the ADC12 ratio in aluminum ingots is less than 35%. The enterprise participates in hedging and has views on industry development [35][36]. 3.4.4. Aluminum Alloy Plant D - The Kunshan production line has a total approved production capacity of 12 tons, and the Anhui production line will focus on delivery. The ADC12 production ratio is 20 - 30%. The enterprise is positive about futures trading [37][38]. 3.4.5. Aluminum Alloy Plant E - The monthly scrap aluminum procurement is 4000 - 5000 tons. The current production capacity is 7 tons, and the monthly output is about 6000 tons. The enterprise is cautious about the increase in ADC12 social inventory [39][41]. 3.4.6. Scrap Aluminum Recycling Enterprise A - It has recycling centers in Shanghai and Fujian, with a large trading volume. It mainly recycles new scrap aluminum from aluminum processing enterprises and conducts business through long - term contracts [42]. 3.4.7. Scrap Aluminum Recycling and Aluminum Alloy Trading Enterprise B - It is a benchmark enterprise in scrap aluminum supply. The monthly ADC12 trading volume is about 1000 tons, and it may participate in delivery in November. It mainly conducts long - term contract business and hedges when purchasing scrap aluminum [44][45].

以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ，作者王贤伟 CFC金属研究 . 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件，进行专业的解读和评论，分享专业的价值观点，提出专业的投资策略，力争为普通投资者、产业人士打造 专业的投资交流平台，并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 文 | 王贤伟 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 铸造铝合金期货上市后主要关注点包括： 1）期货交割量级不确定性较大；2）供需数据难以追踪；3）废铝紧缺难以证实或证伪； 本 文将铸造铝合金主要研究指标整理汇总以供参考。 复盘2007年以来两类铝价，ADC12价格与A00关联程度较高，而ADC12弹性和波动率不及A00，整体表现为下跌周期中ADC12更为抗 跌，而上涨周期则由A00领涨；同时两类铝价基本呈现3年一个完整的涨跌幅周期，目前正处于2023年启动的周期末端。 我们根据铝行业上下游库存周期判断， 25年下半年则将逐步迈入主动去库+被动去库的组合，恰逢偏弱的价格交叉周期。 铸造铝合金现货市场参考的主流报价平台有三个，由低至高依次是江西保太、上海钢联（相差100-200）及上海有色（相差500- 700），因此最便宜交割品需要 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2024, China's total scrap aluminum recycling volume was 11.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. The supply growth rate of old scrap aluminum was 11.6%, and that of new scrap aluminum was 1.6%. It is estimated that the growth rate of scrap aluminum supply will decline to 1.9% and 4.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][37]. - China's annual primary aluminum production is about 43.5 million tons. After rough calculation based on the recycling rate, scrap aluminum accounts for 18.5% of the total aluminum supply. To meet a 1% growth in consumption, the scrap aluminum supply growth rate needs to reach at least 5.5%. With limited primary aluminum supply, the increment of new scrap aluminum supply is scarce. It is expected that the increment of new scrap aluminum supply in 2025 will be 1%, so old scrap aluminum needs to achieve a growth rate of over 7.5%. Therefore, the tight supply situation of scrap aluminum will be difficult to ease in the next two years [2][9][37]. - The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum continues to decline. In addition, the price of industrial silicon has dropped significantly. Even when producing with primary aluminum and adding 11% industrial silicon, its production cost - effectiveness is gradually emerging. If the scrap aluminum price remains high, there is a possibility of primary aluminum replacing scrap aluminum in the later stage, which can be used as a reference for arbitrage of the price difference between A00 and ADC12 [2][28][37]. - In Q2 2022, due to factors such as the geopolitical crisis and the Fed's interest - rate hikes, the A00 aluminum price dropped significantly due to recession trading factors. As a result, the ADC12 - A00 price difference showed abnormal seasonal performance. From 2023 to the current position in 2025, the ADC12 - A00 price difference has shown regular seasonal fluctuations [3][31][38]. - The ADC12 - A00 price difference can be simply understood as the aluminum ingot basis or the aluminum ingot spot premium or discount. ADC12 is more focused on cost and actual supply - demand strength, while the A00 aluminum ingot is more affected by macro factors. When the inventory is low and actual consumption strengthens, the ADC12 price is firm, and the A00 spot premium rises. When the inventory is high, even if consumption is strong, the ADC12 price and the A00 spot premium situation will not be optimistic [3][32][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cost - side Analysis of ADC12 Price 3.1.1 Insufficient Increment of Scrap Aluminum Supply in the Next Two Years - The domestic scrap aluminum market supply is tight. Although the scrap aluminum supply is increasing, the procurement sources for aluminum alloy plants are decreasing due to the promotion of scrap aluminum grade - preserving recycling. The theoretical calculation shows that the scrap aluminum supply growth rate will decline in the next two years, posing challenges to cost control and raw - material channels for aluminum alloy manufacturers [7]. - The slowdown in scrap aluminum supply growth in the next two years is mainly due to factors such as China not entering the real - estate aluminum recycling period yet, the slowdown in scrap aluminum recycling from electronic and durable goods due to the impact of the epidemic, and the decline in scrap aluminum supply from transportation and machinery equipment caused by the previous slowdown in consumption growth. However, the actual scrap aluminum recovery volume from automobiles may be slightly better than the theoretical value due to the rapid development of new energy and government subsidies [7][8]. 3.1.2 Increased Procurement Difficulty for Aluminum Alloy Plants due to the Promotion of Scrap Aluminum Grade - Preserving Recycling - In the past, most of China's recycled aluminum could only be used for die - casting aluminum at a downgraded level. In 2024, the use of scrap aluminum in aluminum profiles and strips increased significantly, indicating that the mature aluminum in old scrap aluminum is being used at the original grade. Even though the scrap aluminum supply is increasing, the raw - material procurement for recycled alloy enterprises is becoming more difficult, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is narrowing [11]. 3.1.3 Analysis of the Relationship between Scrap Aluminum Price and ADC12 Price - The correlation coefficient between scrap aluminum price and ADC12 price is 0.91, and that between A00 and ADC12 price is 0.96. Scrap aluminum price affects ADC12 price mainly from the cost side, while the relationship between A00 and ADC12 is more about output and price correlation [16]. - The scrap aluminum price is affected by the primary aluminum price, but in a tight supply situation, scrap aluminum traders may hold back goods when the primary aluminum price drops. Seasonally, the scrap aluminum price is relatively stronger than the primary aluminum price around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum will remain at a low level in the next two years [16]. 3.2 Analysis of the Price Difference between ADC12 and A00 3.2.1 Analysis from the Perspective of the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Aluminum - The current theoretical production cost of ADC12 is about 20,150 yuan/ton, and the industry is facing a slight loss. With the high scrap aluminum price and the narrowing price difference between refined and scrap aluminum, as well as the significant decline in the industrial silicon price, there is a possibility of primary aluminum replacing scrap aluminum if the scrap aluminum price remains high, which can be used as a reference for arbitrage of the price difference between A00 and ADC12 [26][28]. 3.2.2 Analysis from the Perspective of Consumption Seasonality - In 2022 Q2, the ADC12 - A00 price difference showed abnormal seasonal performance, while from 2023 to the current position in 2025, it has shown regular seasonal fluctuations. Around the Spring Festival, the high cost of scrap aluminum supports the ADC12 price, making the ADC12 - A00 price difference relatively high at the beginning and end of the year. In Q2, due to sufficient supply after the Spring Festival inventory accumulation and the influence of macro factors on A00, the ADC12 - A00 price difference weakens. From August to September, as consumption strengthens and supply becomes relatively insufficient, the ADC12 - A00 price difference gradually strengthens [31].