1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by September, and the pig price is prone to fall and difficult to rise under abundant supply. The reduction of the slaughter weight by farmers will put pressure on the pig price, but the strength of the price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs needs attention. The LH2509 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Against the background of falling spot prices, the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted weakly. When the pig price accelerated its decline in the later part of the week, the decline of the LH2509 contract was limited [2]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Against the background of weak spot prices, the spreads of some contracts showed reverse arbitrage trends [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: The decrease in slaughter volume and the fall in pig prices indicate that the supply exceeds the demand, leading to the decline of pig prices [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price in Henan region dropped significantly [16]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: The price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs adjusted strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it may weaken the farmers' willingness to reduce the weight of pigs [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Difference**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen price difference for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Farming Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly positive [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight decreased slowly, and it will take some time to release the previous inventory pressure [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of April, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows continued to increase in May [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows was weak this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in May but remained at a low level [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In May, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, corresponding to a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: The price of 15kg piglets continued to fall this week, and the price of 50kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The frozen product market gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices changed from bullish to neutral - bearish [36]. 5. Import End In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively small [39].