021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 12 日 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，11 日生猪主力 2511 合约小幅高开后震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最高 13370 元/吨，最低 13285 元/吨，收盘报 13320 元/吨，较昨日涨 0.04%，指数总 持仓增加 3574 手至 197717 手。现货方面，1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase monthly until December, but significant and continuous price increases are unlikely due to sufficient supply. The positive and potentially strengthening fat - standard price difference may support the pig price by reducing the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs. For the LH2509 contract, if there are short positions, it is advisable to consider taking profits and staying on the sidelines for the time being [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: This week, market sentiment cooled, and the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs weakened. On August 1st, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 375 yuan/ton [1][3][4]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts have corrected [6]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month price spreads are oscillating and adjusting [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price first declined and then rose [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences are relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference is oscillating and adjusting as a whole. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce the weight of pigs or even prompt the market to increase the weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat has weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach a level close to that of the same period last year [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The inventory of reproductive sows in relevant samples continued to increase [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows weakened. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy newborn piglets decreased by 1.26% month - on - month, indicating that the number of slaughtered pigs in December this year will stop increasing and start to decline [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was relatively stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral to negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pig Daily Report - July 22, 2025" [2] - Report type: Agricultural product research report from the Commodity Research Institute [1][5][8] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs continues to be reflected, and the spot price has significantly declined. The follow - up supply pressure is still expected to exist, and the further upward space of the live pig spot price is limited, with a certain downward pressure [4][6]. - The live pig futures market shows a relatively strong operation. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, while the spot price may decline due to market pressure, but the decline space is relatively limited [6]. Group 4: Price Data Summary Spot Price - The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.54 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions' prices have declined, with only a few regions remaining unchanged or slightly increasing [4]. Futures Price - Futures contracts such as LH01, LH03, LH05, LH09, and LH11 have all shown price increases, while LH07 remained unchanged [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - This week, the piglet price is 440 yuan, and the sow price is 1628 yuan, both remaining unchanged from last week [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 90.89 yuan/head, down 42.99 yuan/head from yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 18.66 yuan/head, down 50.26 yuan/head from yesterday [4]. Contract Spread - The spreads of LH7 - 9, LH9 - 1, LH9 - 11, and LH11 - 1 have all decreased [4]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 133,605 heads, down 1472 heads from yesterday [4]. Size Pig Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs is 0.43 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg; the spread between large - sized pigs and standard pigs is 0.07 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly in a range - bound operation [7]. - Arbitrage: LH91 long - short spread arbitrage [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]