Core Viewpoint - The inventory of breeding sows in China has shown stable growth, indicating a normal production capacity within the industry, as reflected in the recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Group 1: Breeding Sow Inventory Data - As of the end of May 2025, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.42 million heads, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, representing 103.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating normal production capacity [1] - As of the end of April 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, remaining flat month-on-month and showing a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, also at 103.6% of the normal holding capacity [1] - At the end of Q1 2025, the breeding sow inventory stood at 40.39 million heads, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, maintaining 103.6% of the normal holding capacity [1] - By the end of February 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 40.66 million heads, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, at 104.3% of the normal holding capacity [1] - At the end of January 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 40.62 million heads, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, representing 104.2% of the normal holding capacity [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the pig market, covering price trends, supply and demand, and trading strategies [1][4] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Pig prices across China showed a downward trend this week due to improved supply after a previous price surge and weak price support [4] - Supply remains relatively tight as large - scale enterprises' output has not fully recovered, but it has improved compared to the previous period [4][9] - Demand is generally weak, with a decline in pig slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [4][10] - Futures prices are expected to have limited rebound space due to limited supply tightening [4] Group 4: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, and futures prices will have limited upward potential [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly range - bound operation [5] - Arbitrage: LH91 positive spread [5] - Options: Wait and see [5] Group 5: Pig Price Situation - Pig prices across the country decreased this week. For example, in the Northeast, prices dropped by 0.35 - 0.5 yuan/kg to 14.38 - 14.5 yuan/kg [9] - Supply from large - scale enterprises has not fully recovered, but it has improved after a previous price rebound, leading to a slight price decline [9] Group 6: Changes in Slaughter and Consumption Slaughter Situation - Large - scale enterprises' output has not fully returned to normal, and the monthly output increase is limited [10] - Small - scale farmers' slaughter enthusiasm has increased, but the output remains low, and secondary fattening output has decreased [10] - Pig slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still tight [10] Consumption Situation - Pig market demand is generally weak, with a decline in slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [10] Group 7: Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits continued to improve. As of the week of July 11, self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.6 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan/head [15] Group 8: Sow and Piglet Prices Piglets - The price of 7 - kg piglets rose to 439 yuan/head, up 8 yuan/head, and the price of 15 - kg piglets rose to 539 yuan/kg, up 12 yuan/head. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets has increased [19] Sows - The sow price remained flat at 1621 yuan/head. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs has decreased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has increased, while the enthusiasm for replenishment is still low [19] Group 9: Reproductive Sow Inventory - In June, the reproductive sow inventory increased slightly according to both Yongyi and Ganglian data. Yongyi's comprehensive sample increased by 0.12% and large - scale enterprises by 0.22%, while Ganglian's data showed a 0.28% increase overall, with large - scale enterprises up 0.29% and small and medium - sized farmers up 0.17% [21]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 3、供需错配循环。 能繁母猪存栏量的增减直接决定未来生猪供给，但市场供需关系的变化因生产周期而滞后，形成"供过于求→价格下跌 →产能出清→供不应求→价格上涨→产能扩张"的循环。 猪周期的核心矛盾是生产周期刚性与价格信号弹性的冲突。能繁母猪存栏量作为"慢变量"，通过10-13个月的滞后期主导生猪供给，而市场 需求的"快变量"变化，如消费淡旺季、替代品价格等则加剧了价格波动。未来，随着规模化占比提升，周期振幅可能收窄，但滞后性传导 机制仍将长期存在。 当前市场主要矛盾在于，能繁母猪存栏偏高与2025年猪价下行压力并存，在产能并未出现明显去化的格局下，进一步的驱动依赖产业博弈 的结果。 02 理论滞后性与实际验证 根据养殖理论传导周期测算，从能繁母猪补栏到商品猪出栏，需经历完整的生产链条：后备母猪培育（7-8个月）→ 配种妊娠（4个月）→ 仔猪育肥（6-7个月）。因此，理论上能繁母猪存栏量的变化会在10-13个月后反映到生猪供给和价格上。 通过历史数据测算，能繁母猪存栏量与13个月后的生猪价格呈现显著负相 ...