Core Viewpoint - A wave of deposit rate cuts among small and medium-sized banks has emerged in October, driven by competitive pressures from larger banks and the need to balance customer retention with cost control [1][2]. Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Cuts - Several small and medium-sized banks, including Suzhou Bank and Shanghai Huari Bank, have announced reductions in deposit rates, with some banks cutting rates by as much as 80 basis points [1]. - The three-year fixed deposit rate at Huari Bank was reduced from 2.3% to 2.15% [1]. Economic Logic Behind Rate Cuts - The reduction in deposit rates is part of macroeconomic adjustments aimed at stimulating consumption and investment amid economic challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and cautious corporate investment [2]. - Lower deposit rates encourage residents to spend or invest their money, thereby boosting market activity and economic growth [2]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - High household savings rates have led to an excess of deposits in banks, while loan demand has not kept pace, particularly in a slowing economy [3]. - To maintain balance and reduce the burden of high deposit interest payments, banks are compelled to lower deposit rates [3]. Banking Sector Pressures - The narrowing net interest margin, which fell from 1.52% at the end of last year to 1.42% by the second quarter of this year, is pressuring banks to cut deposit rates to maintain profitability [4]. - Increased competition from fintech and various investment products is also prompting banks to adjust their deposit rates [4]. Impact on A-Share Market - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to have a significant ripple effect on the A-share market, altering capital flows and investment behaviors [5][6]. - Historical data shows that after previous rate cuts, there was a notable increase in A-share market activity, with a surge in new accounts and investments [7]. Sector-Specific Impacts - The consumer sector is likely to benefit from lower financing costs, which can enhance corporate performance and stimulate consumer spending [8]. - Growth sectors such as technology and renewable energy may also see opportunities for expansion due to reduced borrowing costs [8]. - Financial stocks, particularly brokerage firms, may experience increased revenues from heightened market activity, while banks may face mixed outcomes due to compressed net interest margins [9]. Overall Market Trends - Historically, A-share market valuations tend to rise during periods of declining interest rates, as lower financing costs improve profit expectations [10]. - However, uncertainties in the global economy and domestic recovery may lead to market volatility despite rate cuts [10]. Investor Strategies - Investors are advised to adjust their strategies in response to the changing environment, focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend stocks for stable returns [12]. - Growth sectors should be monitored for potential investment opportunities, particularly in innovative companies with strong market positions [12]. - Diversification across asset classes is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [13].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing pressure of narrowing net interest margins has prompted small and medium-sized banks to initiate a new round of deposit rate cuts, with several institutions announcing reductions in their deposit interest rates since October [1][4]. Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Cuts - A new wave of deposit rate cuts has been observed among small and medium-sized banks, including Suzhou Bank, Shanghai Huari Bank, and Tianjin Jincheng Bank, with some banks reducing rates by as much as 80 basis points [1][3]. - Shanghai Huari Bank has reduced its 3-year fixed deposit rate from 2.3% to 2.15%, marking its seventh rate cut this year [3]. Impact of Net Interest Margin - The narrowing of net interest margins is the primary driver behind the recent deposit rate cuts, with commercial banks' net interest margin decreasing from 1.52% at the end of last year to 1.42% by the second quarter of this year [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the pressure from narrowing net interest margins and the upcoming maturity of high-interest deposits are significant factors influencing banks to lower deposit rates [4][5]. Market Expectations - There is an increasing market expectation for a potential policy rate cut in the fourth quarter, with predictions of a 10 basis point reduction [5]. - The reduction in deposit rates may help alleviate the pressure from narrowing net interest margins and create a buffer for the banking system [5]. Interest Rate Inversion - A notable phenomenon during this round of rate cuts is the occurrence of interest rate inversion, where longer-term deposit rates are lower than shorter-term rates, contrary to typical expectations [6][7]. - This inversion is attributed to banks' anticipation of further declines in future interest rates, leading them to lower long-term deposit rates to manage long-term funding costs [6][7]. Implications for Depositors - The decline in deposit rates signals to ordinary depositors to reassess their asset allocation, potentially increasing their interest in other investment products [7]. - The short-term impact of rate inversion may lead to a decrease in long-term deposit allocations, but in the long run, it could help banks optimize their funding structure and improve capital efficiency [7].

东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青预计， 四季度央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，并带动LPR报价跟进下调。 中信证券研报也认为， 四季度可能有 一次10个基点的降息落地。 据第一财经，在沉寂了一段时间后， 近日，中小银行又进入了新一轮降息潮。 据统计，10月份以来，一批中小银行密集下调或正在准备下调存款利率。 10月13日，上海华瑞银行发布《关于调整人民币存款挂牌利率的公 告》，将3年期整存整取定期存款利率从2.3%调降至2.15%。 今年以来，华瑞银行前后合计8次降息。 与华瑞银行同样在9月底降息的中小银行还有天津金城银行、河南洛阳农商行、洛宁农商行等。展望 后市，业内倾向于认为年内还将再度开启降准降息"窗口"。 ...