期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 21 日 铝：高位震荡 氧化铝：横盘小涨 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20535 | -10 | -255 | 120 | 750 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | l | l | ー | l | 20565 | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2577 | 10 | -32 | -20 | 150 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 128168 | 22981 | 46090 | -80473 | -10538 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 228028 | -6671 | 11562 | ર્ ૨૨૩૭ | ...

Group 1 - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, consistent for three consecutive months, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the steady policy interest rates and the lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes due to historical low net interest margins [1][2] - The net interest margin of commercial banks is projected to decline further to 1.42% by Q2 2025, indicating ongoing pressure on banks to reduce costs for the real economy [1] Group 2 - Future monetary policy may allow for a downward adjustment of LPR, especially in light of low inflation levels and the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the housing market [2] - The potential for new rounds of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year is anticipated, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in LPR [2] - Structural monetary policies are expected to play a more significant role in reducing financing costs, with a focus on non-interest costs such as collateral and intermediary service fees [1][2] Group 3 - The implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy is expected to focus on improving the transmission channels of monetary policy and optimizing the marketization process of LPR [3] - The aim is to lower the overall financing costs in society while maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level [3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) quotes remain unchanged, with the 1-year rate at 3% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting stability in monetary policy and market conditions [1][3][4] LPR Stability - The LPR has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, primarily due to stable policy rates and rising market interest rates, which limit banks' motivation to lower LPR quotes [3][4] - The current LPR quotes are influenced by the unchanged 7-day reverse repo rate of 1.4% and a lack of significant downward movement in MLF rates [4][6] Bank Profitability and LPR Adjustment - Commercial banks are facing historical low net interest margins, with the latest figure at 1.42%, which has decreased by 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating pressure on profitability [3][6] - The lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR quotes is attributed to their current profitability challenges and the stable interest rate environment [4][5] Reverse Repo Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased the scale of reverse repo operations, conducting a net injection of 4,975 billion yuan on August 20, 2023, to support liquidity in the banking system [6][7] - The PBOC's approach aims to maintain a balance between adequate liquidity and avoiding excessive monetary easing that could lead to inflationary pressures [7][10] Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts predict potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions in the fourth quarter, which could lead to lower LPR quotes and stimulate financing demand [8][9] - The focus will remain on structural monetary policy tools to direct financial resources to key sectors, with a cautious approach to overall monetary policy [9][10] Housing Market Considerations - There is an expectation for regulatory measures to further support the housing market, potentially leading to a more significant reduction in long-term LPR quotes to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate demand [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a stable policy rate environment [1][2] - The stability in LPR quotes for three consecutive months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for adjustments in the short term [1] - There is an expectation of potential downward adjustments in LPR quotes in the future, particularly in the fourth quarter, as the central bank may implement new rounds of interest rate cuts to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic pressures [2] Group 2 - The articles highlight that the current low inflation levels provide sufficient room for monetary policy to remain accommodative, including the possibility of interest rate cuts without immediate concerns over high inflation [2] - It is anticipated that regulatory measures will be strengthened in the second half of the year to support the real estate market, including potential reductions in the 5-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [2]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR rates for August remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in policy rates, particularly the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate, indicates no changes in the pricing basis for LPR, leading to the unchanged rates[2] - The LPR has remained stable for three consecutive months, primarily due to a moderately strong macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for immediate adjustments[2] Group 2: Future Economic Outlook and Policy Adjustments - Economic data from July shows downward volatility, suggesting increased downward pressure on the economy in the third quarter, with external demand likely to slow[3] - There is potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in early Q4, which could lead to lower LPR rates[3] - Lower LPR rates are expected to stimulate internal financing demand, crucial for promoting consumption and investment in the second half of the year[3] - The current low inflation levels provide ample room for monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, without immediate concerns over high inflation[3] - Strengthening policies for the real estate market in the second half of the year may involve guiding the 5-year LPR downwards to alleviate high mortgage rates and boost housing demand[3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first seven months of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] Group 1: Loan and Financing Data - In July, the new social financing maintained a year-on-year increase, supported by government bond financing, despite fluctuations in new credit data due to credit overdraft and hidden debt replacement [1][2] - The increase in loans is subject to seasonal characteristics, with July typically being a "small credit month," and historical data shows that manufacturing and construction PMI averages are lower in July compared to June [2] - The growth of social financing in July was primarily driven by government special bonds and corporate bond financing, with new government bonds amounting to 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 555.9 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - The difference in growth rates between narrow money supply (M1) and broad money supply (M2) narrowed to 3.2%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [3] - It is expected that after short-term disturbances subside, new credit in August will return to positive values, and social financing will remain at a high level, with M2 continuing to grow rapidly and M1's growth rate accelerating [3] - The monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a supportive stance in the second half of the year, focusing on reducing financing costs and increasing credit availability to stimulate domestic demand [3]

Monetary Policy Direction - The core focus of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) meeting is "stabilizing growth and benefiting people's livelihoods" amidst global economic uncertainties [5] - The market anticipates 1-2 interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with policy rates potentially lowered by 20-30 basis points, which could significantly reduce mortgage repayment burdens for households [6] Policy Tools - The PBOC emphasizes a flexible approach to policy implementation, utilizing various tools such as reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to ensure precision and effectiveness in monetary policy [7] Funding to Real Economy - The PBOC aims to direct funds towards the real economy, particularly addressing long-standing issues of accounts receivable among enterprises, which can enhance overall economic vitality [8] Financial Order Regulation - The PBOC is focused on preventing "involutionary" competition among banks, which can lead to reduced industry efficiency, by promoting a healthier and more sustainable financial service system [11] Key Support Areas - The PBOC will prioritize support for technology innovation, small and micro enterprises, consumption, and foreign trade, with specific policies aimed at directing funds to tech-oriented small businesses [12] Renminbi Internationalization - The meeting discussed expanding the use of the Renminbi in trade, which is expected to enhance its international status and provide convenience for cross-border transactions [13] Risk Prevention - Risk prevention remains a key focus for the PBOC, ensuring that while monetary policies are relaxed, potential financial risks are closely monitored to prevent asset bubbles [14] Future Financial Innovations - The PBOC mentioned the development of a digital central bank and optimization of cross-border payment systems, which are expected to transform payment methods and financial experiences in the future [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices due to tight copper ore supply remains. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down, and the demand for copper may show a trend of weakening external demand, short - term weak domestic demand, and long - term improvement. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,731 dollars/ton, up 44 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 159,866 lots, down 3,692 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures were 3,657 lots, down 4,571 lots. The LME copper inventory was 139,575 tons, down 2,175 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 72,543 tons, down 880 tons; the SHFE warrant of cathode copper was 18,767 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,650 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 50.5 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 35 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 52.73 dollars/ton, down 3.48 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 42.09 dollars/kiloton, up 0.54 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,000 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 480,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of scrap copper (1 bright copper wire) in Shanghai was 54,840 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of scrap copper (2 copper, 94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 1.185 billion tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.56%, down 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.16%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.51%, down 0.006%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.17, down 0.026 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and may cut rates by 50 basis points if the unemployment rate rises further. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching. The negative impact of the US tariff policy is emerging, and the US economy shows multiple weak signals. Experts and institutions expect the new social financing in July to increase year - on - year. The central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements around the end of the third quarter. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market in the first half of the year reached 44.3%. It is expected that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in July will be 1.18 million, with a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. In August, the supply of new houses decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand remains relatively stable, with industry expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply remains high but growth slows down, and demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventory has a slight accumulation, and long - term expectations are still positive after policy - guided optimization. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly contracts and demand weakens during the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,560 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,227 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum was 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; that of alumina was 12 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 225,945 lots, down 1,091 lots; that of the alumina main contract was 124,750 lots, down 4,932 lots. The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 11,500 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 463,725 tons, up 925 tons. The Shanghai Aluminum inventory in the SHFE was 117,527 tons, up 1,737 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts in the SHFE were 46,649 tons, down 2,009 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 11,315 lots, up 9,377 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00, up 0.02. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,005 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,520 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,460 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Premiums**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 45 yuan/ton, down 665 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium/discount was - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 2.62 dollars/ton, up 0.02 dollars. The basis of alumina was - 5 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The alumina production was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points; the alumina开工 rate was 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons. The import of alumina was 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons; the export of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; that in Shandong metal scrap was 15,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import of aluminum scrap was 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export of aluminum scrap was 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - related**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity was 4,520.70 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum开工 rate was 97.68%, up 0.03 percentage points; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 49.70 million tons, down 30,781 tons. The production of aluminum materials was 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons [2]. - **Trade - related**: The import of primary aluminum was 192,314.50 tons; the export of primary aluminum was 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy was 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The automobile production was 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 9.50%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 9.31%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 9.48%, down 0.0006 [2]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.22, down 0.0494 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and may cut by 50 basis points if the unemployment rate rises further. Analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates and reserve requirements around the end of the third quarter [2]. - **Industry - specific News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue steady - growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The expected wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in July were 1.18 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. In August, the new - house supply decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [2].

Group 1 - The Chinese securities regulatory authority emphasizes the importance of promoting mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to enhance the investment value of listed companies, indicating a rise in market activity in M&A and restructuring [1] - The A-share market is witnessing accelerated professional integration, with both traditional and emerging industries engaging in M&A, reflecting a sustained increase in market activity [1] - Analysts expect more benchmark M&A cases to emerge in the future, driven by policy support [1] Group 2 - The recent rally in sectors like military and pharmaceuticals has pushed the Shanghai Composite Index above 3600 points, prompting investors to focus on identifying high-potential assets based on valuation and growth prospects [2] - Analysts highlight that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, ultra-high voltage, and power equipment are currently undervalued yet possess better growth potential [2] - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are identified as key opportunities in the technology growth direction for the second half of the year [2] Group 3 - Five listed banks reported positive performance for the first half of 2025, with both revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth [3] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable growth due to a potential stabilization of net interest margins and ongoing optimization of asset-liability structures [3] Group 4 - There is a growing trend of international capital increasing allocations to Chinese assets, driven by improvements in policy and fundamentals [4] - Nearly 60% of sovereign wealth funds prioritize China as an investment market, and Chinese stocks have become the second-largest overseas investment destination for South Korean investors [4] - Recent data shows that five overseas-listed Chinese ETFs attracted over $2 billion in a single month, indicating strong international interest [4] Group 5 - Hainan Province is set to pilot cross-border asset management policies, enhancing the convenience of cross-border capital flow and supporting the development of a centralized operation center for cross-border funds [5] Group 6 - The China Futures Association has proposed new regulations to address the issue of "involution" in the futures industry, aiming to shift from price competition to value creation [6] Group 7 - The mechanical industry in China is expected to continue its stable growth in the second half of 2025, with key economic indicators projected to grow at around 5.5% [8] - The industry has shown resilience in exports and stable production and sales growth, despite facing challenges such as insufficient demand and profit compression [8] Group 8 - The recent acquisition of Ansys by Synopsys for $35 billion marks a significant event in the EDA industry, expected to enhance market scale and meet customer needs in circuit and physical domains [9] - The acquisition is anticipated to create a substantial market presence, with Ansys holding a 42% market share in simulation software [9] Group 9 - Nine small and medium-sized banks have had their credit ratings upgraded recently, benefiting from regional economic development and capital strengthening measures [10] - Conversely, four small rural banks have seen their ratings downgraded, reflecting varying circumstances across the sector [10] Group 10 - The financial sector is expected to see an increase in social financing in July, with predictions of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in the near future [11] - These measures are aimed at reducing financing costs for the real economy and stimulating consumption and investment [11] Group 11 - Local state-owned enterprises are increasingly acquiring A-share listed companies, with 61 companies experiencing changes in controlling shareholders this year, indicating a trend towards resource optimization and economic transformation [12] Group 12 - New floating management fee rate funds are being launched, aligning the interests of fund managers and investors, with fees linked to investment performance [13]