每季度固定的央行货币政策定调来了。近日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会召开，强调"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"。 适度宽松如何理解？在此之前，美联储在9月18日宣布降息25个基点。中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，全球金融市场对美联储这次降息有充分预期，市场反 应相对平稳，中国货币政策坚持以我为主，兼顾内外均衡。 今年二季度，央行下调政策利率10个基点，进而引导1年期和5年期以上LPR同步下调10个基点，存款利率也相应调降。此外，将再贷款利率降至1.5%，并下 调存款准备金率50个基点。 在这一轮降息降准之后，目前尚无进一步动作。四季度，还有降息降准的空间吗？ 图源：图虫创意 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪告诉时代周报记者，此次表述的细微差别，表明推进已出台政策的落实落细仍是重点。 "在结构性货币政策工具方面，主要延续7月政治局会议的表述，与上个季度例会相比，新增强调做好'小微企业、稳定外贸等'重点领域的融资支持，这是因 为美国的关税政策可能给中国出口带来一定冲击并在四季度有所显现，因此强调对小微企业、稳定外贸的融资支持有重要意义。"张迪说。 华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜则认为，货币政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: LPR Rates - The 1-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.0%, consistent with the previous month [1] - The 5-year LPR also stays at 3.5%, unchanged from last month [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The stability in LPR rates reflects a lack of motivation among banks to lower the LPR amid historically low net interest margins [1] - Recent increases in key mid to long-term market interest rates, such as the AAA-rated 1-year interbank certificates of deposit and 10-year government bond yields, are influenced by market expectations and anti-involution factors [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Potential impacts from the U.S. high tariff policies on global trade and China's exports may become more pronounced in the fourth quarter [1] - The central bank may consider implementing a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in LPR rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The probability of central bank easing is increasing. The capital market's technology - related content has further improved, and various medium - and long - term funds' holdings of A - share floating market value have increased. There are expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [6][7][10]. - **Stock Market**: A - share technology stocks are favored by funds. The stock market shows signs of a breakthrough after a sharp rise in August, but the sustainability of the upward momentum needs to be observed. It is advisable to consider going long on the stock index futures at low levels and adopt a shock - operation strategy [10]. - **Bond Market**: It is recommended to steepen the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - to - long - term for treasury bond futures. A strategy of going long on bonds at low levels can be adopted to bet on the intensification of future monetary policies [11]. - **Black Commodities**: The steel market may experience a "not - so - prosperous peak season." Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, with short - selling of wide - straddle options on steel and short - selling of iron ore at high levels. Double - coking coal prices may continue to rise in the short - term, but the focus should be on the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [14][15][16]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the holiday, with a recommendation of high - level observation and appropriate long - buying at low levels. Alumina has an increasing surplus pressure, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [21]. - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, a strategy of short - selling at high levels is recommended; for sugar, a short - selling strategy is advisable; for eggs, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is suggested; for apples, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for corn, selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed; for hogs, a short - selling strategy on the near - term contracts at high levels is recommended [28][30][32][33][34][35]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, short - selling at high levels can be considered; for fuel oil, its price will follow the oil price; for plastics, a weak - shock strategy with a small - amount short - selling allocation is recommended; for rubber, short - term long - buying strategies can be considered; for methanol, a shock strategy is recommended; for caustic soda, the futures are expected to be weak; for asphalt, it will follow the oil price; for the polyester industry chain, a weak - shock trend is expected; for liquefied petroleum gas, a long - term short - selling strategy is maintained [37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - The capital market's technology - related content has further improved, with the market value of the A - share technology sector accounting for over 1/4. As of the end of August, various medium - and long - term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan," and foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value [6]. - China's 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs have remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. There are expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments have issued a work plan for the stable growth of the steel industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - A - share technology stocks are favored by funds. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3828.58 points, with daily trading volume reaching 2.14 trillion yuan. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels and adopt a shock - operation strategy [10]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market was generally strong and volatile on Monday. The central bank conducted a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. It is recommended to steepen the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - to - long - term and go long on bonds at low levels [11]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - The policy impact on the black market is expected to be neutral, and the market will return to supply - demand fundamentals. The steel market may experience a "not - so - prosperous peak season." Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, with short - selling of wide - straddle options on steel and short - selling of iron ore at high levels [14][15]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Double - coking coal prices may continue to rise in the short - term. The focus should be on the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the holiday, with a recommendation of high - level observation and appropriate long - buying at low levels. Alumina has an increasing surplus pressure, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [21]. 3.4.2 Zinc - As the macro - impact fades, zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increased supply and weak demand [22]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term destocking supports the price, and it is expected to move in a shock manner [23]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low levels within the range. The resumption progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers is the core supply - demand contradiction [25]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - It is recommended to operate cautiously with a wide - range shock. The policy progress dominates the price fluctuation [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - A strategy of short - selling at high levels is recommended due to increasing supply and weak demand [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - A short - selling strategy is advisable as the domestic and international sugar markets face supply pressure [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is suggested as the supply pressure is large and the peak season is coming to an end [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - A wait - and - see approach is recommended. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas [33]. 3.5.5 Corn - Selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed. The price may decline with the increase in new grain supply, but there is support at the bottom [34]. 3.5.6 Hogs - A short - selling strategy on the near - term contracts at high levels is recommended. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand [35]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - It is advisable to short - sell at high levels as the market is likely to shift to a supply - surplus pattern [37]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Its price will follow the oil price, with weak fundamentals for low - sulfur fuel oil and changing demand for high - sulfur fuel oil [38]. 3.6.3 Plastics - A weak - shock strategy with a small - amount short - selling allocation is recommended due to high supply and weak demand [39]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Short - term long - buying strategies can be considered as the price may strengthen gradually [40]. 3.6.5 Methanol - A shock strategy is recommended as the port inventory pressure is large [40]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - The futures are expected to be weak as the futures and spot prices deviate [42]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - It will follow the oil price, and the current demand is in the peak season [43]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - A weak - shock trend is expected due to weak cost - side drivers and lack of demand [45]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - A long - term short - selling strategy is maintained as the supply is abundant and demand is hard to strengthen beyond expectations [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on September 23, 2025. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Gold and silver futures are likely to reach new highs [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On September 23, 2025, index futures are expected to oscillate strongly. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4518 and 4545 points and support levels at 4455 and 4444 points [2][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to oscillate widely on September 23, 2025 [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly and reach new highs. For instance, the gold futures contract AU2512 will attack resistance levels at 855.0 and 860.0 yuan/gram, and the silver futures contract AG2512 will attack resistance levels at 10400 and 10500 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while aluminum and alumina futures are likely to oscillate weakly on September 23, 2025 [3]. - **Industrial and Agricultural Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly on September 23, 2025 [3][4][6]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **International Relations**: Trump said he would meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the two sides are communicating [7]. - **Economic Data**: China's 1 - year LPR in September was reported at 3%, and the 5 - year and above variety was reported at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. Some analysts believe that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Financial Market**: As of the end of June, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond market sizes ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserve size ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On September 22, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 2.03% to 3781.20 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.17% to 44.32 US dollars/ounce [11]. - **Crude Oil**: On September 22, international oil prices oscillated narrowly. The main contract of US crude oil fell 0.10% to 62.34 US dollars/barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.05% to 66.01 US dollars/barrel [11]. - **Base Metals**: On September 22, London base metals showed mixed results. LME zinc rose 0.38%, LME lead rose 0.15%, LME copper rose 0.13%, while LME tin fell 0.44%, LME nickel fell 0.46%, and LME aluminum fell 0.62% [11]. - **Exchange Rates**: On September 22, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1148 at 16:30, down 23 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1138 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1106, up 22 basis points from the previous trading day [12]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On September 22, index futures generally showed a small - scale upward trend. For example, the main contract IF2512 of CSI 300 index futures rose 0.30% (0.44% based on the closing price) [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 22, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.22%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.20%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% [36]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures continued to rise and reached new highs. For example, the gold futures contract AU2512 reached a new high of 851.98 yuan/gram during the night trading on September 23 [45]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures showed a small - scale upward trend, while aluminum and alumina futures showed a downward trend on September 22 [59][63]. - **Industrial and Agricultural Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures showed different degrees of decline on September 22 [70][71][80].

Core Viewpoint - The LPR rates for September remain unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, consistent since May, indicating a stable monetary policy environment in China [1][3][5] Summary by Relevant Sections LPR Rates and Market Expectations - The LPR rates have been stable for five consecutive months, reflecting a lack of change in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained at 1.40% since May [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the unchanged LPR rates align with market expectations, as banks lack the incentive to lower LPR quotes due to rising market interest rates and historical low net interest margins [3][5] Monetary Policy Context - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a supportive monetary policy stance, aiming for a balance between domestic needs and external factors, particularly in light of the recent Federal Reserve rate cut [2][7] - The PBOC's approach is to maintain liquidity and support economic recovery while monitoring macroeconomic data for potential adjustments [7][8] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a possibility of new rounds of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [5][6] - The PBOC may consider further lowering the LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and boost housing demand, which is seen as crucial for reversing negative market expectations [6][8]

Group 1 - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year, aligning with market expectations [1] - The stability of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate since May 8 indicates no changes in the pricing basis for LPR, leading to the expectation of no adjustments in September [1] - LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with analysts suggesting potential downward space for policy rates and LPR within the year [1] Group 2 - The impact of high U.S. tariffs on global trade and China's exports may become more pronounced in Q4, increasing the necessity for policies to stabilize growth and employment [2] - The potential for a new round of interest rate cuts by the central bank in Q4 is anticipated, which could lead to a decrease in LPR, stimulating internal financing demand [2] - Continuous weak credit and declining real estate sales highlight the necessity for rate cuts to lower financing costs, while banks face pressure on interest margins [2]

Group 1 - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, effective until the next announcement [1] - The stability of the LPR aligns with market expectations, as the central bank's seven-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed [2] - Factors such as extreme weather, growth stabilization policies, external fluctuations, and real estate market adjustments have caused macroeconomic data to fluctuate [2] Group 2 - The central bank's seven-day reverse repurchase rate has become a key monetary policy rate, guiding other interest rates [3] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding reflects a move towards marketization of interest rates [3] - Future monetary policy will focus on optimizing the structure of financial growth rather than just increasing total volume [3] Group 3 - There is potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions before the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [4] - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut may reduce external constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for more flexibility [4] - The expectation is that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which could lead to lower loan rates for businesses and residents [4] Group 4 - The necessity for interest rate cuts is high due to weak credit and declining real estate sales, which could lower financing costs [5] - The sentiment in the stock market has been positive, indicating a need for careful guidance of market emotions through monetary tools like interest rate cuts [5] - Attention should be paid to potential government bond supply pressures at year-end, which may prompt further monetary policy actions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The LPR rates remain unchanged in September, consistent with market expectations, indicating a stable monetary policy environment in China [4][5][6]. Group 1: LPR Rates and Market Expectations - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged for five consecutive months [6][4]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the consistent 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained at 1.40% since May [6][4]. - Market interest rates have risen, reducing banks' motivation to lower LPR quotes, leading to the unchanged rates in September [6][4]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts predict potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [10][8]. - The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to ease external constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for more flexibility in domestic rate adjustments [9][8]. - The necessity for rate cuts is emphasized due to weak credit demand and declining real estate sales, indicating a need to lower financing costs [9][8]. Group 3: Economic Context and Policy Implications - Recent macroeconomic data show declines in consumption, investment, and industrial production due to various factors, including extreme weather and external volatility [7][10]. - The Chinese central bank's monetary policy is described as supportive and moderately loose, aimed at fostering economic recovery and financial market stability [12][14]. - The government has increased fiscal measures, including raising the fiscal deficit target to 4.0% and issuing additional government bonds, to support economic growth [7][10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been deepening interest rate marketization reforms, enhancing the framework for market-based interest rate regulation, and promoting a decline in overall financing costs in society [1][2] - The 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained stable at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50% since May 2025, following a 10 basis point reduction [1][2] - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield recently exceeding 1.8%, indicating market expectations for the PBOC to resume government bond trading operations [2] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.42%, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, with large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, and private banks reporting net interest margins of 1.31%, 1.55%, and 3.91% respectively [2] - There is an expectation that the PBOC may implement another round of interest rate cuts in Q4, which could lead to further declines in LPR quotes and lower loan rates for businesses and residents [3][4] Group 3 - The current low inflation levels provide ample space for the PBOC to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts, without immediate concerns about high inflation [4] - The anticipated downward adjustment of the 5-year LPR could significantly reduce residential mortgage rates, stimulating housing demand and reversing market expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting stability in monetary policy and market conditions [1][4]. Interest Rate Trends - The LPR has not changed for four consecutive months since a reduction in May 2025, where the 1-year LPR decreased from 3.10% to 3.0% and the 5-year LPR from 3.60% to 3.5% [4]. - The stability in LPR is attributed to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate and market expectations influenced by various factors, including the recent rise in medium to long-term market interest rates [4]. Financial Market Performance - Recent fluctuations in the bond market have led to increased attention on the 10-year government bond yield, which briefly surpassed 1.8%, with the latest yield reported at 1.7890% [4]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% as of Q2 2025, showing a slight decline from the previous quarter [5]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts anticipate potential interest rate cuts in Q4 2025, which could lead to further reductions in LPR, thereby encouraging lower loan rates for businesses and consumers [6]. - The current low inflation environment provides sufficient room for monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, without immediate concerns over high inflation [6]. - There is a focus on reducing housing loan rates to stimulate demand and stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR [6].