2026年开年之际，中小银行存款利率调整大幕再度拉开。1月4日，北京商报记者梳理发现，山西浑源农商行、湖北荆州农商银行、新安银行、河 北望都中成村镇银行等多家中小银行密集调整存款利率，一改此前普遍降息的态势，呈现出"上调与下调"并存的格局。从单期限的利率微涨，到 多期限的全面上调，再到"长升短降"的结构优化，不同银行的利率调整路径背后，既是年初"开门红"的揽储考量，更是净息差收窄压力下的差异 化经营抉择。 存款利率调整现分化 新年伊始，中小银行便掀起新一轮存款利率调整潮。1月4日，北京商报记者梳理发现，多家中小银行密集公告开年存款利率调整情况，与2025年 普遍降息的市场氛围不同，此次调整呈现出鲜明的差异化特征，部分银行针对性上调定期存款利率，也有银行采取"长升短降"的灵活策略，另有 少数银行加入降息阵营，利率调整方向显著分化。 从调整方向来看，多家银行选择上调部分产品存款利率。其中，山西浑源农商行公告显示，自2026年1月1日起调整人民币存款利率，调整后该行 整存整取定期存款的1年期品种利率，从此前的1.40%微幅上调至1.45%；河南农商银行新乡县支行、辉县支行、获嘉支行对多期限定期存款利率 进行全面上调 ...

2025年，个人存款和理财市场呈现出显著的结构分化特征。随着利率整体下行，长期限定期存款利 率普遍进入"1字头"，大额存单等高息产品陆续下架。 2025.12. 31 回顾来看，银行存款市场年内经历了涉及各类存款、遍及各类银行的降息潮。5月20日，六家国有大 行率先调整人民币存款利率，活期利率下调5个基点至0.05%，短期定期品种3至12个月的利率下调 15个基点，长期限品种3年期和5年期分别下调25个基点。 本文字数：2487，阅读时长大约4分钟 股份制银行及中小银行随后全面跟进，降息幅度和频次甚至超过国有大行。其中，中小银行成为市场 调整的主力军。例如福建华通银行上半年密集下调存款利率5次；上海华瑞银行三年期定期存款利率 从2.8%降至2.15%，五年期更是从2.8%降至2.1%。部分中小银行3年、5年期定期存款利率甚至 低于全国性大行，彻底打破了中小银行长期"高息避风港"的形象。 降息不仅限于中长期存款，活期存款、通知存款、协定存款等短期品类也被纳入调整范围。多轮降息 后，部分中小银行出现了明显的利率倒挂现象：更长期限的定期存款利率低于较短期限存款，长期限 产品的收益优势逐渐消失。 作者 | 第一财经 ...

降息不仅限于中长期存款，活期存款、通知存款、协定存款等短期品类也被纳入调整范围。多轮降息 后，部分中小银行出现了明显的利率倒挂现象：更长期限的定期存款利率低于较短期限存款，长期限产 品的收益优势逐渐消失。 与此同时，长期限存款产品加速退场。民营银行中，已有多家下架5年期定期存款。国有大行虽未全面 下架长期整存整取产品，但三年及五年期大额存单在售大幅收缩，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建 设银行、交通银行及邮储银行六大国有银行的手机银行App中，目前均已无五年期大额存单在售。招 商、中信、兴业、浙商等多家股份行也已无五年期大额存单在售。 利率下行与净息差压力 市场变化背后，有多重原因推动。首先是宏观利率环境长期低位运行。2025年，贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）延续下行趋势，银行贷款端收益率下降，而存款端成本刚性存在，导致商业银行净息差收窄。 国家金融监督管理总局数据显示，截至三季度末，商业银行净息差为1.42%，国有大行、股份行、城商 行和农商行净息差分别为1.31%、1.56%、1.37%和1.58%，处于历史低位。 其次，中小银行通过利率调整优化负债结构。年内，多家民营银行、村镇银行和农商行暂停了三至五年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for investors to adapt their understanding of "safety" and investment strategies in response to changing market conditions, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where traditional asset allocation methods are being challenged [3][4][11]. Group 1: Redefining Safety - The occurrence of "interest rate inversion" indicates a need to reassess the traditional definition of "risk-free returns" [4][17]. - True wealth security should incorporate a time dimension, focusing on the long-term preservation and appreciation of assets rather than just nominal principal safety [5][19]. - Investors should accept market volatility as a potential indicator of long-term growth opportunities rather than viewing it solely as risk [5][19]. Group 2: Investment Framework - A three-layer analytical framework is proposed to navigate the complexities of the real estate market, focusing on short-term, mid-term, and long-term factors [4][18]. - Short-term market sentiment can be gauged through indicators such as the change in second-hand housing listings, which reflect immediate supply and demand dynamics [6][18]. - Mid-term market conditions are influenced by supply-side factors, including land transaction data and local government revenue from land sales, which affect infrastructure investment and overall market development [8][21]. Group 3: Long-term Value and Slow Variables - Long-term value analysis should focus on identifying the core competitive advantages of cities, such as population attraction and industrial vitality, which are essential for real estate investment [10][23]. - Understanding "slow variables" is crucial for long-term planning, as they shape the fundamental value of assets over time, influenced by demographic and technological trends [10][23]. Group 4: Adapting to New Norms - As traditional investment strategies become less effective, investors are encouraged to recalibrate their understanding of risk and return, moving from chasing market trends to focusing on long-term planning [11][24]. - The volatility of previously considered "stable" assets may increase, while sectors aligned with long-term growth trends may present new investment opportunities [11][24]. - The ongoing "UP向上，投资有温度" initiative aims to provide investors with insights into complex information, facilitating informed decision-making for sustainable wealth growth [3][11][24].

Core Viewpoint - The core issue in current financial reform is balancing the reduction of financing costs for the real economy with the sustainability of financial institutions, as highlighted by the People's Bank of China's report indicating that the phenomenon of corporate loan rates being lower than government bond rates is unsustainable [2] Group 1: Transmission Blockages - The transmission of monetary policy is hindered by several structural issues, including the distortion caused by inverted interest rates, where corporate loan rates are lower than government bond yields, undermining the risk pricing logic [3][4] - The narrowing of bank interest margins restricts banks' willingness and ability to transmit policy changes to the real economy, with the net interest margin for commercial banks at a historical low of 1.42% in Q3 2025, down 12 basis points from 1.54% in the same period of 2024 [5] - The stagnation of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) adjustment, which has remained unchanged for six months, reflects constraints on further monetary easing and affects the efficiency of policy transmission [6] Group 2: Structural Issues - The asymmetry in the adjustment of deposit and loan rates creates a dilemma for banks, as rapid declines in loan rates are not matched by corresponding decreases in deposit costs, further squeezing interest margins [7] - There is a regional and structural disparity in interest rate transmission, where developed eastern regions and large state-owned enterprises can access financing at lower costs compared to small and private enterprises in central and western regions [8] Group 3: Optimization Paths - To address these transmission blockages, six key optimization paths are proposed, including enhancing the interest rate corridor to improve the effectiveness of policy rate transmission and deepening the marketization of deposit rates [9][10] - Building a modern financial institution system that encourages differentiated competition and focuses on core business areas is essential for improving the competitive environment in the financial sector [11][12] - The use of structural monetary policy tools should be strengthened to provide targeted support for key areas such as technology innovation and small enterprises, ensuring that policy benefits reach the intended recipients [13][14] - Improving the risk pricing mechanism is crucial to address issues of interest rate inversion and pricing disorder, which includes enhancing the credit system and reforming internal bank assessment mechanisms [14] - Establishing a coordinated financial regulatory mechanism is necessary to maintain a conducive environment for interest rate transmission and to prevent regulatory arbitrage [15]

日本央行货币正常化，是大家早有预期的黑天鹅事件。 而此时此刻，距离日本央行货币政策会议已不足48小时。 隔夜指数掉期（OIS）市场给出加息25个基点的概率，已经从12月初的20%飙升到如今的94%。 算是板上钉钉了。 来源：日经中文网 01 欲望重燃 日本早就不是那个深陷通缩的国家了。 截至2025年10月，日本核心CPI（除生鲜食品）已连续28个月维持在央行2%的目标上方。 更关键的是服务业PPI。 "区区"25个基点，从0.5%到0.75%，对于美联储来说可能只是鲍威尔打个喷嚏的幅度…… 但对于日元而言，这是自1995年以来，整整30年未曾触及的"极寒高地"。 全球廉价资金的锚点，将因此松动。 2025年11月的PPI月率公布值为0.4，前值为0.3，预测值为0.3，表明PPI在短期内依然呈现上升趋势。 这意味着通胀已经从"油价贵导致运费贵"转变为"理发师和护工要求涨工资"。 这是好事还是坏事？ 去年的数据就能说明问题。 当年核心CPI同比上涨2.7%，其中卷心菜涨价60%，梗米涨价近50%，国民级零食铜锣烧提价15%…… 起初市场还把这归咎于日元贬值带来的输入性通胀，但2025年春斗谈判给出了关键信号： ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is set to initiate a historic interest rate hike in December, which is expected to have a significant impact on global capital markets, comparable to a nuclear bomb in the investment landscape [1]. Group 1: Impact on Global Markets - The immediate effects will be felt in the US dollar, US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, all of which are dollar-denominated assets [1]. - Changes in the dollar and dollar-denominated assets will transmit to other countries' investment markets, including China's RMB and RMB-denominated stocks [1]. - The current yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has reached 1.946%, the highest since August 2007, marking a significant increase from -0.28% six years ago, a rise of 224 basis points [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Comparisons - Japan's 10-year government bond yield is now higher than China's, which stands at 1.8%, indicating a significant shift in the interest rate landscape [6]. - This inversion of rates suggests that Japan, once known for its low rates, is now in a position where China has become the country with the lowest interest rates globally [6][8]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Implications - Japan's national debt, which is 250% of its GDP, poses a risk as the country moves to normalize interest rates, potentially leading to severe economic consequences [8]. - The scale of Japan's debt is comparable to major global asset bubbles, making it a significant player in global finance [7]. Group 4: Global Capital Flow Dynamics - The anticipated interest rate hike may trigger a massive sell-off of US stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and gold as global investors rush to repay debts incurred through yen carry trades [8][9]. - The recent fluctuations in the US stock market and other assets can be attributed to the impending changes in Japan's monetary policy [8]. Group 5: Currency Valuation Effects - The expected appreciation of the yen due to the interest rate hike will lead to a depreciation of the dollar, which in turn will affect other currencies, including the RMB [9][13]. - The shift in capital flows may lead to a reevaluation of asset pricing globally, particularly for dollar-denominated assets [13]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The interest rate hike is not expected to be a one-time event but rather the beginning of a new cycle of rate increases in Japan, which will increasingly influence global markets [17]. - The transition from Japan's low-rate environment to a higher rate landscape may create opportunities for RMB to replace yen in carry trades [20].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of short-term bonds by the Ministry of Finance reflects a strong demand in the market and indicates a strategic adjustment in monetary policy to manage liquidity effectively [1][3][5]. Group 1: Short-term Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance recently issued 63-day bonds with a scale of 40 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.2891%, which is lower than market expectations of 1.2400% [1]. - The issuance of 91-day bonds was also noted, with a scale of 55 billion yuan and a rate of 1.2675%, again below the expected 1.2900% [1]. - The total issuance of 63-day bonds since May has reached 115 billion yuan, with June alone accounting for 34% of the annual plan [3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Liquidity - The high bid-to-cover ratio of 2.45 indicates strong institutional demand for short-term bonds, suggesting a robust appetite for these financial instruments [1]. - The current liquidity environment is characterized by a low financing cost of around 1.2%, which is 30 basis points lower than the rates for commercial bank interbank certificates [5]. - The issuance strategy aims to absorb excess liquidity while providing a signal for future monetary policy adjustments [6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The issuance of short-term bonds serves multiple purposes: it covers 23% of the maturing medium-term lending facility (MLF) in June, sets a policy interest rate ceiling, and reserves space for potential acceleration of special bonds [6]. - The Ministry's approach of adjusting the issuance scale and rates is designed to maintain a balance between short-term liquidity management and long-term financing needs [8]. - The recent behavior of the bond market, including the narrowing of the yield spread between different maturities, indicates a strategic maneuver by the Ministry to prevent excessive leverage while supporting long-term financing costs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of five-year fixed-term deposits by banks, starting with the Inner Mongolia Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank, indicates a potential industry trend rather than an isolated case, as many private and internet banks are following suit due to declining interest rates and the phenomenon of interest rate inversion [2][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Cancellation - Banks are discontinuing five-year fixed-term deposits primarily to address the narrowing net interest margin, as loan rates are decreasing faster than deposit rates, leading to higher costs for long-term deposits [3][4]. - The Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank has also lowered rates for other term deposits, with the one-year rate dropping to 1.45% and the two-year rate to 1.55% [4]. Group 2: Market Response and Trends - The average annualized yield for bank wealth management products has risen to approximately 2.12%, significantly higher than the current one-year fixed deposit rate of 0.95%, prompting a shift in investor preference towards these products [7]. - The number of individuals holding bank wealth management products has increased by 12.70% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a growing trend towards these alternatives [6][7]. Group 3: Future Directions for Banks - The shift away from long-term fixed deposits towards wealth management services reflects a broader transformation in the banking industry, where competition will increasingly focus on providing diversified asset allocation solutions [8]. - Banks that can effectively meet customer needs with stable and competitive yield products are expected to gain an advantage in the evolving market landscape [8].

Core Insights - The traditional five-year fixed deposit, once a reliable investment for conservative investors, is gradually being phased out by banks due to declining interest rates and increased early withdrawals [2][4][8] Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - Over 30% of fixed deposit customers are withdrawing early, resulting in an average interest loss of over 70% [4] - The interest rate for five-year fixed deposits has been reduced, with some banks even removing these products from their offerings [10][12] - The phenomenon of "interest rate inversion" is becoming common, where shorter-term deposits yield higher returns than longer-term ones, indicating banks' concerns over long-term funding costs [6][8] Group 2: Impact on Banking Profitability - The net interest margin, a key indicator of bank profitability, is under pressure, leading banks to adjust their deposit strategies [8][10] - Major banks have seen a decline in net interest margins, with state-owned banks experiencing an 11 basis point drop compared to the previous year [8] Group 3: Shift in Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly moving their funds towards the real economy and capital markets due to shrinking deposit yields and inflation pressures [12] - A new investment strategy termed "New Three Golds," which includes money market funds, bond funds, and gold funds, is gaining popularity among younger investors [12][14] - The importance of diversified asset allocation is emphasized, moving away from reliance on long-term fixed deposits [16][20] Group 4: Financial Literacy and Caution - Investors are advised to assess their financial needs and avoid blindly choosing long-term deposits, as early withdrawals can lead to significant interest losses [18][20] - The necessity for financial education is highlighted, as investors should be cautious of high-yield products and scams [20][22] - The adage of not putting all eggs in one basket remains relevant, as the space for high-yield long-term deposits continues to shrink [22]