2026 年 1 月 5 日 锡：假期间震荡平稳 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 326,330 | -2.47% | #N/A | #N/A | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 42,195 | 5.46% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 441,257 | -12,067 | 43,769 | -6,392 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪 锡 | 7,772 | -133 | - | - | | | 伦 锡 | 5,330 | 185 | 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of tin, including price, trading volume, inventory, and key industry prices, and also provides some macro and industry news [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 292,860, with a daily increase of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 294,380, with a night - session increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 69,596, an increase of 13,478 from the previous day, and the open interest was 18,347, a decrease of 3,235 from the previous day. The inventory was 5,884, a decrease of 22 from the previous day [1]. - The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,425, with a daily increase of 1.23%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 3,085, unchanged from the previous day, and the cancelled - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [1]. - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 293,600, an increase of 2,200 from the previous day [1]. - The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was 96, an increase of 1 from the previous day; the spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 97,430, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 2,860, an increase of 3,490 from the previous day [1]. - **Industry Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 270,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 274,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day [1]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 191,250, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 183,250, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Chinese President had a phone call with the US President, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation hurts both" and also talked about the Taiwan issue and the Ukraine crisis [2]. - Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, both support a December interest - rate cut due to concerns about the labor market [2]. - Trump signed an executive order to launch the artificial intelligence "Genesis Project" [2]. - Ukraine said that the US and Ukraine finalized a new peace draft, with the number of points reduced from 28 to 19, and sensitive parts are to be decided by the US and Russian presidents [2]. - Moore Threads, the "first domestic GPU stock", started its IPO subscription, with an online winning rate of 0.02423369% and an offline subscription multiple of nearly 1,600 times [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral position, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The price of tin is trending upwards, with the Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin 3M electronic disk showing increases in prices and trading volume. The trend strength of tin is rated as 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 292,440 yuan with a daily increase of 1.48%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 37,405 US dollars with a daily increase of 1.93%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai tin main contract increased significantly compared to the previous day [1] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 136 tons to 5,446 tons, while the inventory of LME tin increased by 40 tons to 3,055 tons. The cancellation warehouse receipt ratio of LME tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [1] - **Spot and Price Difference**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 1,500 yuan to 282,800 yuan, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price increased by 4,300 yuan to 292,400 yuan. The spot - to - futures main contract price difference increased by 2,680 yuan to 4,220 yuan [1] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 yuan, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **US Economic and Policy News**: After the end of the shutdown, the US October inflation and employment reports may not be released. The Atlanta Fed President who advocates "no rate cut in December" will retire in February next year. The US Treasury Secretary will adjust the national debt issuance structure according to investor demand. The US Supreme Court will hold a court debate on the Fed Governor Cook case on January 21 [2] - **Global Commodity Market**: OPEC lowered the global oil demand forecast, and the oil price dropped by 4% as the Q3 market shifted from "supply shortage" to "supply surplus" [2] - **Chinese Market Policy**: China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice - Chairman Li Ming stated to prevent large market fluctuations [2] - **Corporate News**: Due to strong demand for AI servers, Hon Hai's Q3 net profit increased by 17% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and its revenue increased by 11%. Alphabet's Waymo will supply highway self - driving taxis [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral to slightly positive view on the tin market [4]