Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed analysis of commodity market trends, focusing on quantitative indicators for various indices and commodities, highlighting the bullish trends for certain stock indices and the implications for trading strategies [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Quantitative Indicators Summary - The 50 stock index shows a bullish trend with a value of 1.16, indicating a strong upward movement [6]. - The 300 stock index also reflects a bullish trend with a value of 1.21, suggesting continued strength in the market [6]. - The pure soda market shows a fluctuating trend with a value of 3.21, indicating potential volatility [7]. Technical Analysis Summary - For the 50 stock index, the strategy suggests holding positions and looking for entry points near specific trend lines, with a focus on maintaining positions during upward movements [10][12]. - The pure soda market is described as being in a speculative phase, with recommendations to monitor specific price levels for potential entry and exit points [11]. - The 300 stock index is advised to continue holding positions, with a focus on breakout levels and maintaining a bullish outlook [12]. Fundamental Analysis Summary - The 300 stock index is under pressure due to supply concerns, with a basis rate of -22.1/-0.5%, indicating a supply surplus [9]. - The pure soda inventory is at a high level compared to previous years, but there are signs of a downward trend, suggesting potential market adjustments [9]. - Overall, the industry is seeing a comprehensive profit recovery, with the basis rate showing a slight improvement [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of commodity market trends, focusing on quantitative indicators and fundamental assessments of various commodities, including hot-rolled steel, soda ash, and methanol. Group 1: Quantitative Indicators - The trend for hot-rolled steel (热卷) has shown a decrease, with a value of 1.85 on July 24, 2025, indicating a weakening bullish trend compared to previous days [4][5]. - The 50-stock index (50股指) has a trend value of 1.48, suggesting a stable but slightly weakening bullish sentiment [4][5]. - The 300-stock index (300股指) trend value is 1.71, indicating a similar weakening trend [4][5]. - Methanol (甲醇) shows a trend value of 1.97, indicating a strengthening bullish trend [4]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The supply and demand dynamics for hot-rolled steel indicate a high weekly production level, with demand also at a high compared to previous years, but the overall supply is under pressure [6][7]. - The total inventory of hot-rolled steel is below the levels of previous years, which may support prices despite weak margins [6][7]. - For soda ash, the inventory has reached record highs, and both production methods are currently unprofitable [6]. - Methanol inventory at East China ports is at a low compared to previous years but is showing signs of recovery [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - For soda ash, a short-term rebound trading strategy is suggested, with specific entry and exit points outlined for traders [8]. - The 300-stock index also has a short-term rebound strategy, with similar trading guidelines provided [9]. - Methanol is recommended for a short-term rebound, with entry points specified for both existing and new traders [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed analysis of various commodities, focusing on their trading strategies, market trends, and quantitative indicators, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the commodities market [1]. Summary by Sections Trading Pool Analysis - Rebar shows a trend score of 1.47, indicating a bullish sentiment, with a valuation of 0.98, suggesting it is undervalued compared to historical levels [2]. - Hot-rolled coil has a trend score of 1.51, also indicating bullish sentiment, with a valuation of 0.99 [2]. - Live pigs have a trend score of 1.06, indicating a neutral stance, with a valuation of 1.04, suggesting it is fairly valued [2]. - Glass has a trend score of 3.04, indicating a strong bullish sentiment, with a valuation of 0.93, suggesting it is undervalued [2]. - The trend scores for various commodities indicate their market positions, with scores above 1.3 suggesting bullish trends and below 0.7 indicating bearish trends [2]. Key Commodity Tracking Overview - The tracking of live pigs has been discontinued, while new positions in caustic soda and alumina have been added, along with a long position in the 50 stock index [5]. - The trend for hot-rolled coil has strengthened, while the trend for alumina has weakened [6]. - The hot-rolled coil shows a trend score of 1.12, indicating a bullish sentiment, with a valuation of 0.98 [4]. - Zinc and copper have trend scores of 0.85, indicating bearish sentiment, with valuations of 0.94 and 1.01 respectively [4]. Fundamental Analysis - The supply of live pigs is under pressure due to a significant decrease in current slaughter volumes, which may lead to a tightening of supply in the short term [9]. - The overall inventory of live pigs remains high, with low profits for breeding and continuous losses for slaughter enterprises [9]. - Hot-rolled coil production is at a high level compared to previous years, with demand also at a high level, but profits remain weak [10]. - Zinc's social inventory is at a low level compared to previous years but is showing signs of recovery, while copper's global visible inventory is increasing [10]. - The supply of caustic soda is at a high level compared to previous years, with profits in Inner Mongolia being favorable [11]. Technical Trading Strategies - For hot-rolled coil, a short-term rebound strategy is suggested, with specific entry and exit points outlined for traders [12]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of market analysis and daily reviews to adjust trading positions accordingly [12].