核心观点 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 28 日 如何看待债市春节后波动加大 ——债市策略思考 跨春节前后，债市交易主线或由宽货币预期交易向政策博弈逐步切换，获利了结与风 险回避两种情绪共振驱动债市调整。展望下一阶段，债市短线或维持震荡，多看少动 或构成多数投资者的主要选择。 ❑ 债市交易主线或逐步切换 回顾春节前债市突破行情，国内外权益市场承压调整构成外部利好，宽货币预期 交易构成内部动因，两者共振驱动 10 年国债收益率突破 1.80%阻力点位。从量能 角度来看，在 2 月 12 日及 13 日 10 年国债下探过程中，活跃券成交规模出现显著 收缩，与国债收益率强势突破 1.80%阻力位置的行情或并不完全匹配。从驱动角 度来看，节前权益市场调整或更偏向于短期交易性因素，债券相对于股票或仍为 弱势资产，相对偏弱的价格趋势并未发生实质性逆转。我们认为本轮突破或可定 义为在节前交易相对平淡时期由小部分资金买入催化产生，或并不能够完全反映 市场共识，行情支撑相对有限。 债市行情反转背后交易主线或也在逐步切换。本轮债市修复行情的核心驱动在于 投 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current bond market is expected to remain volatile, with a possibility of the 10-year government bond yield breaking below 1.80%, but the downward space may be limited without substantial positive factors like reserve requirement ratio cuts or increased trading volume of government bonds [3][11][15] - The equity market maintains an optimistic outlook, with calendar effects likely benefiting small-cap stocks and sustaining strong performance [3][8][15] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a slight strengthening trend recently, driven by renewed expectations of loose monetary policy, but the performance has been asymmetric, with mid to long-term bonds performing better while ultra-long 20-year and 30-year bond yields have risen [4][12] - A recalibration of perceptions regarding the bond market is necessary, as bonds may now be viewed as weak assets despite some positive catalysts, contrasting with the previous bull market from 2021 to early 2025 [4][12] - The 30-year bond's recognition needs to be reassessed, as its performance has been tied to specific macroeconomic factors, and the current yield spread is at a relatively low level historically [5][13] - The difficulty in capturing market waves has increased, with rapid pricing adjustments occurring within 1-2 trading days, necessitating enhanced trading capabilities [5][12] February Calendar Effects - The bond market in February has historically shown mixed performance, with 4 years of gains and 6 years of losses from 2016 to 2025, influenced by cash demand during the Spring Festival [6][14] - The equity market in February exhibits a style divergence favoring small-cap stocks, driven by a lack of verifiable financial data and a shift in market logic towards future growth narratives [7][14] - The timing of the Spring Festival can significantly impact February's equity market performance, with later festivals correlating with stronger market movements due to the convergence of seasonal and policy factors [7][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - After the release of economic data for December and the fourth quarter last week, with a Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.5% and a full - year GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, the A - share market cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week, and the term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic situation and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of December and Q4 economic data last week, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and full - year 2025 GDP growth at 5%, A - shares cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Trading activity increased significantly, the term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 23, the 30 - 10 spread was 46BP, at a historically low level. In December, the economic downward pressure eased, with an estimated GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. December economic data showed easing downward pressure, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 24.4329 trillion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 10.12 billion yuan. By variety, only local government bonds were issued, amounting to 10.12 billion yuan. By term, 2.4 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 41.9 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 58.8 billion yuan with a 30 - year term [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 18.77 billion yuan, including 18.47 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds and 0.3 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 1.0926 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 213.1 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 2.5% [28]. Yield - After the release of economic data, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, the same as the previous week, and the spread was at the 34th percentile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 14BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 21BP, with changes of - 1BP and 1BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 11th and 17th percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.30 yuan, an increase of 1.03%. The total trading volume was 463,100 lots (- 79,636 lots), and the open interest was 140,500 lots (+ 536 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bond market is more likely to fluctuate. For 30 - year treasury bonds and 20 - year CDB bonds, considering factors such as economic pressure in Q4 2026, the central government's emphasis on high - quality development, low interest rates, market desensitization to positive factors, and large selling pressure in treasury bond futures, the bond market is expected to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread of 30 - year treasury bonds is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3]. - Last week, long - term bonds tumbled again. The yield of long - term varieties increased due to the mention of expanding fiscal expenditure at the fiscal work conference and the rebound of the manufacturing PMI in December. The trading activity of long - term bonds changed little but was very active. The term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Long - term Bond Review - Last week, long - term bonds tumbled again. The yield of long - term varieties increased as the fiscal work conference mentioned expanding fiscal expenditure and the manufacturing PMI in December rebounded 0.9 to 50.1, returning to the boom - bust line for the first time since April. In terms of trading, the trading activity of long - term bonds changed little but was very active. The term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][4]. Long - term Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 31, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 40BP, at a historically low level. In November, the economic downward pressure continued to increase, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.1%, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk eased with CPI at 0.7% and PPI at - 2.2%. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The economic stabilization since Q4 last year was mainly due to central government leverage. Without additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 2026, the government bond financing growth rate is expected to decline rapidly, and the economy will still face pressure. The central government attaches more importance to high - quality development in 2026. Also, the absolute level of interest rates is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and the selling pressure of treasury bond futures is large. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of December 31, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 16BP, at a historically extremely low level. The economic situation in November was similar to that of 30 - year treasury bonds. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. Considering the short - term bond market fluctuation, the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3]. Long - term Bond Basic Overview - The balance of long - term bonds is 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, long - term bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years totaled 244,329 billion, accounting for 15.1% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 28.2%, local government bonds 66.4%, etc. By remaining term, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion at 40.2% [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, there was no issuance of long - term bonds. Compared with the week before last, the total issuance volume decreased significantly. By variety and term, the issuance volume was all 0 [18]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced long - term bond issuance plan this week totals 929 billion, all of which are long - term local government bonds [20]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of long - term bonds was very active, with a turnover of 4,075 billion, accounting for 11.1% of all bonds. By variety, the turnover and proportion of different types of long - term bonds are as follows: long - term treasury bonds accounted for 35.1% of all treasury bonds, long - term local bonds 50.1% of all local bonds, etc. The trading activity decreased. Compared with the week before last, the turnover and proportion of long - term bonds changed: the turnover decreased by 1,607 billion, and the proportion decreased by 1.0%. The turnover and proportion of different types of long - term bonds also changed accordingly [23]. Yield - Last week, long - term bonds tumbled again. The yield of long - term varieties increased. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 2BP, 4BP, 4BP, and 4BP to 2.14%, 2.25%, 2.27%, and 2.48% respectively. Similar changes occurred in CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds. For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 25 extra - long special treasury bond 02 changed by 4.35BP to 2.26%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 5BP to 2.32% [32][37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of long - term bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 40BP, a 2BP change from the week before last, at the 27% quantile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of long - term bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between the benchmark 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds, and 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 16BP and 16BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and - 4BP from the week before last, at the 13% and 11% quantiles since 2010 [44]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main variety of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 111.41 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. The total trading volume was 343,900 lots (- 216,035 lots), and the open interest was 142,100 lots (- 2,500 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest decreased slightly [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the announced LPR rate remained unchanged. The central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting mentioned enriching and improving the monetary policy toolbox, conducting treasury bond trading, and paying attention to changes in long - term yields. The A - share market rose sharply, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week [1][12][43]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of December 26, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 39BP, at a historically low level. Considering economic data, the domestic economy was under pressure in November, and the GDP growth rate decreased. The deflation risk eased. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level recently [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of December 26, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 16BP, at a historically extremely low position. Given economic data and market conditions, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The LPR rate remained unchanged last week. The central bank's meeting remarks, A - share rise led to the bond market rebound and a slight increase in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity decreased slightly but was still active. Term and variety spreads of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][12][43]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bond: Low spread, economic pressure, deflation risk relief, expected high - level spread fluctuation [2][13]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: Extremely low spread, economic pressure, expected narrow spread fluctuation [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. The 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply. Only 12 billion yuan of 20 - year local government bonds were issued [20]. This Week's Pending Issuance - A total of 2 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds are planned to be issued this week [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded with a turnover of 1.1535 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.8% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week [26][27]. Yield - Treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds' yields changed last week. Representative individual bonds' yields also changed [43][44]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: Narrowed last week, with a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 39BP, down 2BP from the previous week, at the 21% quantile since 2010 [53]. - Variety Spread: Narrowed last week, with a low absolute level. The spreads of the 20 - year CDB bond and railway bond against treasury bonds were 16BP and 19BP respectively, down 1BP from the previous week, at the 13% quantile since 2010 [54]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.96 yuan, an increase of 0.27%. The total trading volume was 560,000 lots (down 98,144 lots), and the open interest was 144,600 lots (up 2,655 lots) [60].

Group 1 - The bond market showed a slight rebound on December 17, with the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) rising by 0.11% and the 30-year government bond futures rebounding by 0.63%, approaching recovery from Monday's decline [1] - The weak performance of the bond market in Q4 was more pronounced than expected, with the 30-year government bond futures dropping nearly 4% since November, nearing last year's low after "924" [1] - The strong performance of the 30-year government bond before 2025 has led investors to overlook inherent risks, as the introduction of TL contracts and the central bank's bond trading in 2024 have compressed the 30-10 year yield spread to a historical low of 10 basis points [1] Group 2 - The 30-year government bond is approaching post-tax mortgage rates, highlighting its investment value, but current risks suggest that long-term bonds should not be viewed merely as a duration strategy [2] - During the bond market adjustment phase, the 10-year government bond serves as a stabilizing force, reflecting its robust characteristics [2] - The economic "K" structure is unlikely to ease in the short term, which remains favorable for the bond market, but pessimistic sentiment has not fully dissipated, leading to a neutral to bearish monetary policy [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the central bank announced a 50 billion yuan investment in November through treasury bond trading, and the November PMI rose by 0.2 to 49.2. The bond market experienced a certain degree of sell - off, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread showing mixed changes [1][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of December 5, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. Considering factors such as economic pressure and low interest rates, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to face short - term pressure [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of December 5, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. Given the economic situation and market sentiment, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank's November treasury bond trading investment and the rise in PMI led to a sell - off in the bond market and a tumble in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity increased significantly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread showing mixed changes [1][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The 30 - 10 spread is at a low level. The economy is under pressure, and the spread is expected to face short - term pressure [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond is extremely low. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. The 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply, totaling 5.73 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 2.7 billion yuan, local government bonds were 2.88 billion yuan, and corporate bonds were 0.15 billion yuan. By term, 15 - year bonds were 1.1 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds were 0.93 billion yuan, and 30 - year bonds were 3.69 billion yuan [20]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 3.47 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 1.1346 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.6% of the total bond turnover. Compared with the previous two weeks, the turnover increased by 221 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 3.3% [29]. 3.3.2 Yield - Due to the central bank's investment and PMI changes, ultra - long bonds tumbled. The yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds at different terms all changed, with the 30 - year treasury bond yield rising by 7BP to 2.26% [39]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 41BP, up 7BP from the previous two weeks, at the 24% quantile since 2010 [51]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute low level. The spreads of the 20 - year CDB bond and railway bond against the treasury bond were 14BP and 16BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP from the previous two weeks, at the 11% quantile since 2010 [53]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.51 yuan, down 1.7%. The total trading volume was 706,800 lots, and the open interest was 145,600 lots, with a significant increase in trading volume and a slight decrease in open interest [58].

Group 1 - The 10Y government bond yield remained stable compared to last week, while the 30Y government bond yield increased by nearly 7 basis points [1] - The 30-year government bond futures have erased all gains since last year's "moderately loose monetary policy" and have even incurred losses, indicating that "super long bonds" may actually mean "super debt repayment" [1] - Various bond funds, particularly those heavily invested in 30Y government bonds, have experienced significant losses over the past six months, with declines ranging from -6.13% to -7.99% [1] Group 2 - Recent declines in the bond market, especially for long-term 30-year bonds, have led to a sentiment of despair among investors, with some fund managers reportedly facing severe stress [2][3] - There is a prevailing sentiment among investors that the market may not align with the predictions of a bullish stock market in 2026, suggesting a potential disconnect between expectations and reality [6][7] - The future market trajectory remains uncertain, with possibilities of fluctuations, but there is an underlying optimism about overcoming challenges and achieving higher goals [9]

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year and 30-year Treasury futures have seen an increase in their gains after opening in the afternoon on October 30, with the 10-year futures reaching a high not seen since August 8 [1] Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury futures rose significantly, indicating a strong market response [1] - The 30-year Treasury futures also expanded their gains, reflecting investor sentiment towards long-term bonds [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market continued to decline sharply. The tightening of funds during the tax period, the announcement of an additional 300 billion yuan MLF renewal in August, and the significant rise of A-shares with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high led to an obvious stock-bond seesaw effect, causing a continuous slump in ultra-long bonds [1][3][12]. - In the short term, the bond market will face a continuous game between expectations and reality, with the 10-year Treasury bond oscillating in the range of [1.65%, 1.8%]. On one hand, the weak fundamental situation supports the bond market; on the other hand, the "anti-involution" policy has alleviated investors' deflation concerns, changing the long-term macro-narrative and suppressing the bond market [2][3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market continued to decline sharply. The ultra-long bond trading activity decreased slightly but remained quite active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened [1][12]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bond**: As of August 22, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 31BP, at a historically low level. The current 30-year Treasury bond term spread is still low, with limited term spread protection [2][13]. - **20-year CDB Bond**: As of August 22, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year Treasury bond was 3BP, at a historically extremely low level. The current 20-year CDB bond variety spread is still low, with limited variety spread protection [3][14]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeds 22.8 trillion yuan. As of July 31, ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years totaled 22.8873 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.7% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra-long bonds [15]. - By variety, Treasury bonds account for 26.5%, local government bonds 67.5%, policy financial bonds 2.0%, government agency bonds 1.9%, commercial bank subordinated bonds 0.3%, corporate bonds 0.5%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium-term notes 1.2%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0% [15]. - By remaining maturity, bonds with a maturity of 14 - 18 years account for 26.5%, 18 - 25 years 26.9%, 25 - 35 years 40.9%, and over 35 years 5.7% [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra-long bonds increased significantly. A total of 306.7 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 83 billion yuan, local government bonds 212.3 billion yuan, and others. By maturity, 15-year bonds accounted for 40.2 billion yuan, 20-year bonds 67.8 billion yuan, 30-year bonds 198.7 billion yuan, and 50-year bonds 0 yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 122.5 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 1328.9 billion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly [29]. Yield - Last week, the bond market continued to decline sharply. The yields of various ultra-long bonds rose. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by 4BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 5BP respectively, reaching 1.95%, 2.11%, 2.08%, and 2.16% [41]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds widened, but the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 31BP, 2BP higher than the previous week, at the 12% quantile since 2010 [52]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, but the absolute level was low. The spreads between the 20-year CDB bond and Treasury bond, and between the 20-year railway bond and Treasury bond were 3BP and 8BP respectively, 1BP and 2BP higher than the previous week, at the 5% quantile since 2010 [53]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.98 yuan, a decrease of 1.28%. The total trading volume was 1.1462 million lots, and the open interest was 156,700 lots. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest increased slightly [58].