Report Summary Core View - The report provides a daily update on volatility data including implied volatility indices, historical volatility, and their spread trends for various financial and commodity options as of September 30, 2025. It also presents the percentile rankings of implied volatility and volatility spread [2]. Details from Different Sections Volatility Index and Spread - Financial option implied volatility indices show the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. Commodity option implied volatility indices are calculated by weighting the IV of the two - strike options around the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV trend of the main contract. The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV [2]. Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Graph - Graphs display the IV, HV, and IV - HV spread for multiple options including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, and various commodity options such as silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, etc. [3]. Implied Volatility and Volatility Spread Percentile Rankings - Implied volatility percentile represents the current IV level of a variety in history. A high percentile means the current IV is high, while a low percentile means it is low. The volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility. The report shows the percentile rankings of implied volatility and historical volatility for different options like 50ETF, 300 Index, PTA, etc. [4][5]

Group 1: Explanation of Volatility Metrics - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. Commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the upper and lower two - strike options of the at - the - money option of the main contract month, showing the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [2] Group 2: Volatility Data Visualization - There are charts showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options like silver, gold, soybean meal, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current IV level of a variety in history. High quantiles mean the current IV is high, and low quantiles mean it is low. The data shows the implied and historical volatility quantiles of different options such as 50ETF, PTA, 300 - stock index, etc [4][5]

Group 1: Index Explanation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility compared to historical volatility. A larger difference means higher implied volatility relative to historical volatility, and a smaller difference means lower implied volatility relative to historical volatility [3] - Implied volatility quantile represents the historical level of the current variety's implied volatility. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means the current implied volatility is low [4] - Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [4] Group 2: Implied Volatility Quantile Ranking - For the 50ETF, the implied volatility quantile is 0.80, and the historical volatility quantile is 0.76 [5][7] - For the 300 Index, the implied volatility quantile is 0.78, and the historical volatility quantile is 0.71 [5] - For other varieties such as Tianjun, Yingge, etc., their implied and historical volatility quantiles are also provided in the report [5] Group 3: Volatility Spread Chart - The report presents the IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, silver, soybean meal, etc. through charts, showing the relationship between implied volatility and historical volatility for each option [8]

Group 1: Volatility Index Explanation - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Graphs - The graphs show the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options, including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, urea, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Volatility Spread Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the IV index and HV [5] - The implied volatility quantile rankings are as follows: 300 Index (0.83), 50ETF (0.74), PTA (0.19), etc., and the historical volatility quantile rankings are also presented [6]

Group 1: Volatility Index Introduction - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatility of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility: a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the opposite [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility Quantile Ranking - The historical volatility quantile ranking of 50ETF is 0.81 [7] - The historical volatility quantile ranking of 300 Index is 0.79 [5] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Graph Explanation - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of the implied volatility of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [8] - The volatility spread refers to the implied volatility index minus the historical volatility [8]

Group 1 - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility: a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [3] Group 2 - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - The volatility spread is the implied volatility index minus the historical volatility [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed analysis of commodity market trends, focusing on quantitative indicators for various indices and commodities, highlighting the bullish trends for certain stock indices and the implications for trading strategies [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Quantitative Indicators Summary - The 50 stock index shows a bullish trend with a value of 1.16, indicating a strong upward movement [6]. - The 300 stock index also reflects a bullish trend with a value of 1.21, suggesting continued strength in the market [6]. - The pure soda market shows a fluctuating trend with a value of 3.21, indicating potential volatility [7]. Technical Analysis Summary - For the 50 stock index, the strategy suggests holding positions and looking for entry points near specific trend lines, with a focus on maintaining positions during upward movements [10][12]. - The pure soda market is described as being in a speculative phase, with recommendations to monitor specific price levels for potential entry and exit points [11]. - The 300 stock index is advised to continue holding positions, with a focus on breakout levels and maintaining a bullish outlook [12]. Fundamental Analysis Summary - The 300 stock index is under pressure due to supply concerns, with a basis rate of -22.1/-0.5%, indicating a supply surplus [9]. - The pure soda inventory is at a high level compared to previous years, but there are signs of a downward trend, suggesting potential market adjustments [9]. - Overall, the industry is seeing a comprehensive profit recovery, with the basis rate showing a slight improvement [9].

Group 1: Introduction to Volatility Data - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Volatility Index Charts - Charts show the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options like silver, soybean meal, corn, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means high current IV, and a low quantile means low current IV. Volatility spread refers to the difference between the IV index and historical volatility [4] - Quantile rankings are provided for different options such as PVC, PTA, 50ETF, 300 - stock index, etc [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of commodity market trends, focusing on quantitative indicators and fundamental assessments of various commodities, including hot-rolled steel, soda ash, and methanol. Group 1: Quantitative Indicators - The trend for hot-rolled steel (热卷) has shown a decrease, with a value of 1.85 on July 24, 2025, indicating a weakening bullish trend compared to previous days [4][5]. - The 50-stock index (50股指) has a trend value of 1.48, suggesting a stable but slightly weakening bullish sentiment [4][5]. - The 300-stock index (300股指) trend value is 1.71, indicating a similar weakening trend [4][5]. - Methanol (甲醇) shows a trend value of 1.97, indicating a strengthening bullish trend [4]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The supply and demand dynamics for hot-rolled steel indicate a high weekly production level, with demand also at a high compared to previous years, but the overall supply is under pressure [6][7]. - The total inventory of hot-rolled steel is below the levels of previous years, which may support prices despite weak margins [6][7]. - For soda ash, the inventory has reached record highs, and both production methods are currently unprofitable [6]. - Methanol inventory at East China ports is at a low compared to previous years but is showing signs of recovery [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - For soda ash, a short-term rebound trading strategy is suggested, with specific entry and exit points outlined for traders [8]. - The 300-stock index also has a short-term rebound strategy, with similar trading guidelines provided [9]. - Methanol is recommended for a short-term rebound, with entry points specified for both existing and new traders [10].

Group 1: Definitions - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. Commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IVs of the two strike prices above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Charts - Charts show the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various products including 300 index, 50ETF, 1000 index, 500ETF, cotton, sugar, rubber, PTA, crude oil, methanol, iron ore, copper, PVC, rebar, urea, gasoline, aluminum, zinc, etc. from different time periods [4][6][7][8] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current IV level of a product in history. High quantiles mean current IV is high, and low quantiles mean current IV is low. Volatility spread is the difference between IV and HV [19] - The implied volatility quantiles of different products are provided, such as PTA (0.85), PVC (0.72), etc. [21]