Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 212.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan after 141.7 billion yuan matured on the same day [1] - For the week, the PBOC performed a total of 1,122 billion yuan in reverse repos, with 495.8 billion yuan maturing, leading to a total net injection of 626.2 billion yuan [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) rose by 4.80 basis points to 1.3630%, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 0.60 basis points to 1.4680% [1][2] - The weighted average rates for overnight and 7-day repurchase agreements increased by 5.3 basis points and 4.1 basis points, respectively, while the rates for 7-day and 14-day agreements decreased slightly [4] Market Overview - The overall funding situation in the interbank market was balanced, with overnight transactions occurring in the range of 1.45% to 1.50% and 7-day transactions in the range of 1.48% to 1.50% [10] - On November 14, 68 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, totaling 98.76 billion yuan, with varying demand across different maturities [11] - The PBOC announced an upcoming fixed-quantity, interest-rate tender for 800 billion yuan in reverse repos on November 17, 2025, with a term of 6 months [13]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan after 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - Last week, the PBOC's reverse repos saw a net withdrawal of 1,572.2 billion yuan, the highest level since February 2024 [1] - The overall liquidity remains loose, with overnight funding rates (R001) stable at 1.36% and 7-day funding rates (R007) around 1.46% [1] Group 1 - The upcoming week (November 10-14) will see a significant decrease in reverse repo maturities to 495.8 billion yuan, while government bond net payments will rise to 424.2 billion yuan, indicating a potential for increased liquidity support from the PBOC [2] - Analysts suggest that despite the increase in government bond net payments, the PBOC is likely to maintain its liquidity support, which may stabilize funding rates around 1.35-1.36% for overnight rates and 1.47% for 7-day rates [3] - The PBOC's recent report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy tools in supporting inclusive finance and improving financial services in key areas such as employment and education [3] Group 2 - Overall, the payment pressure in November may be greater than in October, but with the PBOC's supportive stance, the risk of liquidity tightening is considered limited [4] - The PBOC's holdings in the government bond market are around 6%, indicating room for adjustment compared to developed countries [4] - Analysts recommend focusing less on daily fluctuations in funding prices, as the prevailing trend since June has been one of liquidity easing, with optimistic signals in recent funding characteristics [4]

Market Performance - Government bond futures opened lower but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.34%, having previously dropped by 0.65% during the day. The 10-year main contract increased by 0.11%, after a drop of 0.21%, while the 5-year and 2-year main contracts rose by 0.10% and 0.02%, respectively [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" decreased by 0.9 basis points to 1.7520%, while the yield on the 30-year bond "25超长特别国债02" fell by 1.15 basis points to 2.1025%. Conversely, the yield on the 2-year bond "25附息国债17" increased by 0.25 basis points to 1.49% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 91 billion yuan for 7-day terms on October 14, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 91 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market remains flush with liquidity, with overnight repurchase rates hovering around 1.31%. Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight against credit bonds at rates as low as 1.4% [2] - The central bank also conducted a 600 billion yuan 6-month reverse repurchase operation, contributing to a total net injection of 400 billion yuan in reverse repos for the month, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] Operational Suggestions - Recent adjustments in the stock market, combined with liquidity easing and uncertainties in US-China trade relations, have driven a rebound in the bond market. The future trajectory of the bond market remains uncertain, with attention needed on the new fund redemption fee regulations and changes in market risk appetite [3] - The current liquidity environment and the normalization of the yield curve are expected to limit the extent of declines in long-term bonds. If the yield on the 10-year government bond rises above 1.8%, there may be renewed value in allocation, while yields around 1.75% and 1.7% could face resistance [3] - Short-term bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with the T2512 contract likely maintaining a range of 107.4 to 108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for potential adjustment opportunities [3]