风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人 进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固 有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及 预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特 有风险，提请投资者注意。 11月4日十年国债ETF（511260）上涨0.04%，四季度债市逐步显现回暖迹象，十年国债ETF （511260）配置机会值得关注。 基本面，中小企业制造业PMI持续收缩；四季度出口同比增速或转弱。叠加内需持续偏弱，社会投 资回报率处于低位，制约利率上行空间。反内卷政策虽在部分行业落地，但需求侧需要更多政策和刺激 配合以解决价格负反馈问题。历史经验表明，供给侧政策对宏观利率的传导并不直接，此前债券回调更 多源于预期抢跑与股债跷跷板效应，而非基本面实质变化。 政策面，10月27日，央行行长在202 ...

四季度债市逐步显现回暖迹象，十年国债ETF（511260）配置机会值得关注，核心支撑源于基本面压力 与政策面宽松导向的共振。 基本面层面，尽管美国取消10%芬太尼关税，但今年以来美对华仍然新增了20%关税，受影响最大的当 属利润微薄的中小企业，中小企业制造业PMI持续收缩；同时受去年同期高基数影响，四季度出口同比 增速或转弱。叠加内需持续偏弱，社会投资回报率处于低位，制约利率上行空间。而反内卷政策的短期 影响与长期逻辑存在差异，短期对宏观经济总量形成压力，反而成为债市的支撑因素，且历史经验表 明，供给侧政策对宏观利率的传导并不直接，此前债券回调更多源于预期抢跑与股债跷跷板效应，而非 基本面实质变化。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关 规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金 有 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown signs of recovery in the bond market, supported by macroeconomic pressures and a loosening of monetary policy [1][2] - As of October 23, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF has accumulated a weekly increase of 0.59%, with a current price of 106.91 yuan [1] - The recent issuance of a 7-year fixed-rate government bond by the Ministry of Finance, with a total competitive bidding amount of 118 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 1.78%, reflects ongoing government efforts to manage debt [1][2] Group 2 - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF has reached 17.588 billion yuan, indicating significant investor interest [2] - Over the past three days, the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, totaling 344 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 166 million yuan [2] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 30-year government bond index, which is designed to reflect the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [2]

同花顺（300033）数据显示，今年以来股票型基金整体平均收益率超过26%，混合型基金收益率超过 23%，而债券型基金的整体平均收益率只有1.73%。股债"跷跷板"效应加剧，部分资金从债基中撤出。 可统计数据显示，最近一个月，海富通上证投资级可转债ETF等5只债券型基金净流出资金金额超过10 亿元；海富通中证短融ETF、大成深证基准做市信用债ETF、招商双债增强债券13只债券型基金净流出 金额超过1亿元；资金净流入超过10亿元的债券基金为17只。而权益基金方面，富国中证港股通互联网 ETF、嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF、广发国证新能源车电池ETF等7只权益基金"吸金"超过50亿元，"吸 金"超过10亿元的有56只。 【深圳商报讯】（记者詹钰叶）在股债"跷跷板"效应的影响下，部分资金悄悄"搬家"，近来不少债基受 到大额赎回，有债基因此宣布提升产品净值精度。业内指出，情绪阶段性改善，债市可能会出现交易机 会，但策略上宜见好就收，建议投资者把握这轮债市回暖窗口期调整仓位，谨慎追高。 近期权益市场火热，部分资金"搬家"，一边是权益基金吸金，一边是部分债券基金遭遇大额赎回。近来 永赢泰利债券C类基金份额、恒越短债D类份额、 ...

Market Performance - Government bond futures opened lower but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.34%, having previously dropped by 0.65% during the day. The 10-year main contract increased by 0.11%, after a drop of 0.21%, while the 5-year and 2-year main contracts rose by 0.10% and 0.02%, respectively [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" decreased by 0.9 basis points to 1.7520%, while the yield on the 30-year bond "25超长特别国债02" fell by 1.15 basis points to 2.1025%. Conversely, the yield on the 2-year bond "25附息国债17" increased by 0.25 basis points to 1.49% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 91 billion yuan for 7-day terms on October 14, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 91 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market remains flush with liquidity, with overnight repurchase rates hovering around 1.31%. Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight against credit bonds at rates as low as 1.4% [2] - The central bank also conducted a 600 billion yuan 6-month reverse repurchase operation, contributing to a total net injection of 400 billion yuan in reverse repos for the month, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] Operational Suggestions - Recent adjustments in the stock market, combined with liquidity easing and uncertainties in US-China trade relations, have driven a rebound in the bond market. The future trajectory of the bond market remains uncertain, with attention needed on the new fund redemption fee regulations and changes in market risk appetite [3] - The current liquidity environment and the normalization of the yield curve are expected to limit the extent of declines in long-term bonds. If the yield on the 10-year government bond rises above 1.8%, there may be renewed value in allocation, while yields around 1.75% and 1.7% could face resistance [3] - Short-term bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with the T2512 contract likely maintaining a range of 107.4 to 108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for potential adjustment opportunities [3]

截至2025年10月13日 10:23，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.82%。流动性方面，据Wind数据显示，30年国 债ETF盘中换手9.72%，成交29.52亿元。 拉长时间看，截至10月10日，30年国债ETF近1月日均成交93.17亿元。 风险提示：本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理 责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也 不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基 金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品资料概要 等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产品情况及销售机构适当性意见的基础 上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基金产 品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 回顾三季度债市表现，受风险偏好抬升、反内卷情绪发酵以及惩罚性赎回费机制等多重因素影响，债券 市场出现明显调整。从全年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on September 16, with most government bond futures closing higher and interbank bond yields declining by approximately 1 basis point in the afternoon. The central bank conducted a net injection of 40 billion yuan in the open market, while funding rates continued to rise. Analysts believe that long-term bond yields may decline more smoothly in the latter half of Q4, with the potential for new lows in yields within the year. The timing for resuming government bond trading appears to be maturing based on current yield conditions and future government bond issuance plans [1][6][9]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract flat at 115.48, the 10-year main contract up 0.15% at 108, the 5-year main contract up 0.13% at 105.795, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.414 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally declined in the afternoon, with the 30-year government bond yield down 1.5 basis points to 2.08%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield down 1.55 basis points to 1.9275%, and the 10-year government bond yield down 1.6 basis points to 1.784% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell on September 15, with the 2-year yield down 2.30 basis points to 3.526%, the 3-year yield down 3.32 basis points to 3.494%, the 5-year yield down 3.3 basis points to 3.600%, the 10-year yield down 3.64 basis points to 4.034%, and the 30-year yield down 2.8 basis points to 4.653% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield up 0.6 basis points to 1.601% [4]. Economic Indicators - In August, China's retail sales grew by 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.8% and previous 3.7%. The industrial output increased by 5.2%, also below the expected 5.7%. Fixed asset investment from January to August grew by 0.5%, below the expected 1.3% and previous 1.6%. The urban unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - Real estate investment from January to August totaled 60,309 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with new housing sales down 7.3% [7][8]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income noted that August economic data continued to converge, with external demand stronger than internal demand. The bond market is expected to enter a target range, with financing demand weak and expectations for bond purchases increasing [9]. - CITIC Construction pointed out that while August economic data is stable, pressures remain. The bond market's response to fundamental factors is muted, and attention should be paid to the central bank's funding situation [9]. - Guosheng Fixed Income observed that economic data indicates a further slowdown in supply and demand, with short-term disturbances likely to cause bond market fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed significant recovery on July 30, with a general decline in yields following the release of key meeting content, which alleviated previous market caution [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.40% to 118.36, the 10-year main contract up by 0.15% to 108.3, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.63 [2]. - The average yield on interbank bonds fell by approximately 3 basis points, with the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 4.1 basis points to 1.92% [2]. Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a total of 309 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.40% [5]. - Short-term funding rates continued to decline, with the overnight Shibor down by 4.9 basis points to 1.317% [5]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities indicated that the liquidity pressure for August is manageable, and the risk from fiscal and monetary policies is controllable, suggesting a cautious approach to market positioning [6]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) noted that the demand for credit bonds remains stable, and the risk of significant adjustments in interest rate bonds is low unless major growth-stabilizing policies are introduced [6].

Core Viewpoint - Over 80% of pure bond funds have achieved record high performance, driven by strong institutional demand and central bank interest rate cuts, with nearly 95% of these funds showing positive net value growth in 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Bond Funds - As of June 13, 2023, approximately 95% of the 2,440 pure bond funds reported positive net value growth, with 2,002 funds reaching new highs in June, accounting for over 82% [2]. - Notable performers include Bosera Yutong Pure Bond 3-Month A and Guotai Ruiyuan One-Year Open Fund, with net value growth rates of 4.16% and 4.01% respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The bond market's strong performance is attributed to a combination of sustained monetary easing and robust demand for allocation, particularly following the central bank's recent rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2][3]. - The shift of funds from low deposit rates to the bond market, along with a preference for safe-haven assets amid external volatility, has further bolstered the bond market's liquidity [2]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the second half of the year, characterized by amplified interest rate fluctuations and rapid market developments [3][4]. - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of moderate recovery, with resilient consumption and export sectors, while the central bank is likely to continue its accommodative policy stance [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider switching between interest rate bonds and credit bonds, focusing on opportunities arising from the transition of government bonds and the relative value of long-term local government bonds [5][6]. - Specific recommendations include mid-to-short duration urban investment bonds and long-duration local government bonds, which are expected to offer a balance of safety and yield [6].