1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on cross - Spring Festival funds is controllable. The overall liquidity in February is expected to remain stable, with the risk of significant fluctuations being under control, although attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [4][71]. - In January, the central bank actively adjusted monetary policy tools. It cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The central bank also increased the scale of bond purchases to maintain liquidity [3][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - Month Review of the Capital Market and Liquidity 3.1.1 Capital Market Review - In January 2026, the overnight capital fluctuated in a slightly wider range compared to the previous month, showing an oscillatory upward trend with a fluctuation range of 0.18%. The 7D capital fluctuated in a narrower range and basically remained stable around 1.5%. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds [10]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank significantly withdrew cross - year funds, and the capital operation was generally stable and loose. In the middle of the month, due to the maturity of the 6M reverse repurchase and the freezing of funds for new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, there was a brief friction in the capital market. Later, with the net injection of funds, the liquidity gradually stabilized. Towards the end of the month, the pressure on capital increase was relatively controllable [2][11]. - The capital stratification pressure in January was at a seasonally low level. The spread between R007 and DR007 decreased, and the spread between GC007 and DR007 also compressed, both at seasonally low levels [16]. - The volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonally low level, and the daily average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly compared to the previous month [23][24]. - Banks' net lending scale remained relatively high, and the net lending scale of money market funds first increased and then decreased [30]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In January, the base money increased by 1.6 billion yuan. The government deposit consumed about 1.1 trillion yuan of the base money, the central bank's net injection was 1.19 trillion yuan, and the foreign exchange funds continued to be slightly withdrawn by 7 billion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve freezing, cash withdrawal, and changes in non - financial institution deposits, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 692 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.3%, which was seasonally high. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was about 0.7%, close to the seasonal level [33]. - **Open - Market Operations**: In January, the central bank slightly withdrew short - term reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net injection of - 3.22 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 90 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.95 trillion yuan. The 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases had a net injection of 30 billion yuan in total. The central bank also increased its net purchase of national debt by 10 billion yuan and carried out operations such as treasury time deposits and PSL [39][44]. 3.2 1 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In January 2026, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25bp. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, as the exchange rate and net interest margin constraints have eased [3][52]. - The central bank continued its liquidity - caring approach, injecting 1 trillion yuan of medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases. In January, the central bank increased its bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan [3][52]. - The central bank may further create tools to provide liquidity support for non - bank institutions, and may refer to the SRF and some phased tools. It also promotes the interconnection of financial markets and supports the construction of the offshore RMB market [55]. 3.3 2 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In February, as it is a month with relatively less deposit growth, the increase in general deposits will consume about 3.45 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF maturity is 30 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase maturity is 1.2 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 50 billion yuan for 6M), with 80 billion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase being renewed [58]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits will slightly consume excess reserves in February. The "currency issuance" item may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 9.65 billion yuan [62]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government deposit may consume about 44.34 billion yuan of liquidity in February. Considering factors such as bond payment, tax revenue, and fiscal expenditure, the government bond issuance is relatively large this month [67]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap pressure in February is similar to that in January, mainly coming from the pressure of cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival and government bond payment. However, considering the current liquidity status of the banking system and the central bank's operation idea of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the cross - year funds are expected to remain stable, and the risk of significant fluctuations is controllable [70][71]. - Since January, the central bank has actively operated monetary policy tools, with an incremental injection of 1 trillion yuan through MLF and 6M outright reverse repurchases, and an increase in the bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan. The 14D reverse repurchase was launched earlier before the Spring Festival, and the cross - Spring Festival pressure is controllable. However, the progress of cross - Spring Festival funds in the inter - bank market is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [5][73].

Group 1 - The central bank increased its bond purchases, buying 100 billion yuan in government bonds in January, which is 50 billion yuan more than the previous month, indicating potential for further increases in the future [1] - The market is closely watching the central bank's bond purchase scale, the timing of policy interest rate cuts, and when institutional stock market expectations may decline [1] - The central bank conducted a 3-month reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan, with attention on whether the marginal bidding rate will drop to 1.40% [1] Group 2 - In the secondary market for ultra-long-term bonds, insurance funds purchased 10.8 billion yuan, while funds bought 1.2 billion yuan, indicating a lack of strong demand for ultra-long bonds from trading desks [2] - The National Development Bank bond ETF (159651.SZ) saw a daily increase of 0.05% following the central bank's bond purchase, with a one-year cumulative increase of 1.16% [2] - The trading volume of the National Development Bank bond ETF was 1.55 billion yuan, with an active market turnover rate of 28.27% [3] Group 3 - The National Development Bank bond ETF experienced a significant growth of 42.51 million yuan over the past three months [4] - The maximum drawdown for the National Development Bank bond ETF this year was 0.04%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02% [4] - The management fee for the National Development Bank bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 4 - The National Development Bank bond ETF has a tracking error of 0.009% over the past three months, closely tracking the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current "shortening receipt and lengthening issuance" by the central bank does not necessarily mean an increase in liability costs. The central bank's "shortening receipt and lengthening issuance" in terms of quantity is more significant, and the large - scale long - end issuance is more effective in alleviating the liability pressure of financial institutions, especially banks [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In December 2025, the central bank conducted a 3 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan at the same volume. From December 1st - 5th, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 84.8 billion yuan, and from December 8th - 12th, 66.38 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In November, the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds was 5 billion yuan [6]. - From December 1st - 5th, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.30% and 1.36% respectively, down 1.2 basis points and 2.3 basis points compared with November 24th - 28th. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.44% and 1.49% respectively, down 1.9 basis points and 3.9 basis points compared with November 24th - 28th [6]. - From December 1st - 7th, the net government bond payment was about 18.66 billion yuan, about 14.23 billion yuan less than November 24th - 30th. From December 8th - 14th, the net government bond payment is expected to be - 79.52 billion yuan [7]. 2. Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of December 5th, 2025, the maturity yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.5793% and 1.6150% respectively, up 13.4 basis points and 4.0 basis points compared with November 28th. The 1 - year NCD maturity yield was 1.6550%, up 1.5 basis points compared with November 28th [8]. - From December 1st - 7th, the net financing of NCDs was about 4.71 billion yuan. From December 8th - 14th, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 106.24 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the pressure of maturity renewal [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - From December 1st - 5th, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.56%, up from 107.32% in November 24th - 28th [9]. - On December 5th, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.47 years, a weekly increase of 0.79 years, at the 84.1% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 1.80 years, a weekly increase of 0.24 years, at the 51.2% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through short - term reverse repurchases and carried out a 700 billion yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase on November 5. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the 1M maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased while the 3M - 1Y yields were relatively stable, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market slightly increased. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 369.2 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 751.8 billion yuan. On November 7, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.06 years and 0.09 years respectively on a weekly basis [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan. On November 5, a 700 billion yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase was carried out, and the 3M outright reverse repurchase was renewed at the same amount this month [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.37% respectively, down 7.3 and 7.8 basis points compared to October 27 - 31. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.42% and 1.46% respectively, down 10.4 and 11.5 basis points compared to October 27 - 31. From November 3 - 6, the weighted average rate of DR001 was stable around 1.31%, and it increased marginally on November 7, possibly due to the 700 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase maturing on November 10 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 36.8 billion yuan, about 96.9 billion yuan less than that from October 27 - November 2. The net financing of treasury bonds was about 24.9 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 11.9 billion yuan. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 369.2 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing of about 195.9 billion yuan and local government bond net financing of about 173.3 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of November 7, 2025, the 1M and 3M maturity yields of NCDs were 1.4750% and 1.5600% respectively, up 7.0 and 0.5 basis points compared to October 31. The 1Y maturity yield was 1.6300%, up 0.2 basis points compared to October 31 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about 151 billion yuan. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 751.8 billion yuan, and the maturity renewal pressure has increased [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.73%, compared with 107.36% from October 27 - 31 [9]. - **Bond Fund Durations**: On November 7, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 5.38 years, up 0.06 years on a weekly basis, at the 96.5% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 2.69 years, up 0.09 years on a weekly basis, at the 99.5% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan after 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - Last week, the PBOC's reverse repos saw a net withdrawal of 1,572.2 billion yuan, the highest level since February 2024 [1] - The overall liquidity remains loose, with overnight funding rates (R001) stable at 1.36% and 7-day funding rates (R007) around 1.46% [1] Group 1 - The upcoming week (November 10-14) will see a significant decrease in reverse repo maturities to 495.8 billion yuan, while government bond net payments will rise to 424.2 billion yuan, indicating a potential for increased liquidity support from the PBOC [2] - Analysts suggest that despite the increase in government bond net payments, the PBOC is likely to maintain its liquidity support, which may stabilize funding rates around 1.35-1.36% for overnight rates and 1.47% for 7-day rates [3] - The PBOC's recent report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy tools in supporting inclusive finance and improving financial services in key areas such as employment and education [3] Group 2 - Overall, the payment pressure in November may be greater than in October, but with the PBOC's supportive stance, the risk of liquidity tightening is considered limited [4] - The PBOC's holdings in the government bond market are around 6%, indicating room for adjustment compared to developed countries [4] - Analysts recommend focusing less on daily fluctuations in funding prices, as the prevailing trend since June has been one of liquidity easing, with optimistic signals in recent funding characteristics [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1.378 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 1.378 trillion yuan due to no reverse repos maturing on that day [1] - From September 28 to October 11, the central bank's reverse repo net withdrawal reached 1.3304 trillion yuan, with a significant operation of 1.1 trillion yuan 3-month reverse repos announced on October 9, contrasting with a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month [1] - Despite the large-scale reverse repos maturing after the holiday, funding prices gradually returned to pre-quarter-end levels, with overnight funding rates dropping to 1.33%, down 21 basis points from before the holiday [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (October 13-17) will see a decrease in reverse repo maturities to 1.021 trillion yuan, with significant amounts maturing on Thursday and Friday, and a total of 8 billion yuan 3-month reverse repos maturing on Tuesday [2] - Analysts expect the funding environment to remain loose, as the central bank's proactive measures and limited government bond net payments will help mitigate external disturbances [2] - The liquidity test in October is anticipated to be concentrated at the end of the month, with tax payment deadlines delayed to October 27, coinciding with the month-end liquidity pressure [3] Group 3 - The PBOC's liquidity injection tools have shifted towards longer-term MLF and reverse repos since the third quarter, reducing the necessity for frequent short-term operations [4] - Despite the increase in reverse repo maturities post-holiday, the central bank's consistent stance on liquidity provision suggests limited impact on the funding environment [4] - Analysts from Citic Securities believe that the liquidity gap in October may be weaker than seasonal trends, with the central bank's monetary policy remaining accommodative [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 4 to August 8, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and carried out 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. After the cross - month period, the funding rate declined. From August 4 to August 10, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the overall yield to maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From August 11 to August 17, the expected net payment of government bonds is 360.1 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 907.1 billion yuan [2]. - The outright reverse repurchase operation has more flexible timing compared to the medium - term lending facility (MLF). The central bank's operations in different months are to address various pressures on the liquidity, such as large - scale NCD maturities, tax payment months, and new bond issuance policies. The 6 - month outright reverse repurchase in August may be operated in the middle of the month to assist in stabilizing the funding situation during the tax payment period [7]. - The funding situation eased at the beginning of the month. From August 4 to August 8, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.6 and 8.7 basis points respectively compared to the period from July 28 to August 1. The average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 8.2 and 11.4 basis points respectively. In the future, the funding situation is expected to remain stable and loose overall, but the central bank's goal of preventing "idle funds" may limit the significant decline of the funding rate center [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Funding Situation - **Outright Reverse Repurchase and 7 - day Reverse Repurchase**: From August 4 to August 8, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 53.65 billion yuan. On August 8, it carried out 70 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. The net investment of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase was 30 billion yuan. The maturity scales of 3 - month and 6 - month outright reverse repurchases in August are 40 billion and 50 billion yuan respectively [6]. - **Funding Rate**: From August 4 to August 8, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.31% and 1.35% respectively, down 5.6 and 8.7 basis points from July 28 - August 1. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.47% respectively, down 8.2 and 11.4 basis points from July 28 - August 1 [8]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From August 4 to August 10, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 37.06 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.3 billion yuan compared to July 28 - August 3. From August 11 to August 17, the expected net payment of government bonds is 36.01 billion yuan [8]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield to Maturity**: As of August 8, 2025, the yields to maturity of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year NCDs were 1.4490%, 1.5300%, and 1.6175% respectively, down 4, 1, and 2 basis points from August 1 [9]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From August 4 to August 10, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 17.76 billion yuan, compared with about 1 billion yuan from July 28 to August 3. From August 11 to August 17, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 907.1 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal has increased compared to the previous week [9]. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From August 4 to August 8, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.96%, up from the average of 107.63% from July 28 to August 1. On August 8 and August 1, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.07% and 108.10% respectively [10].