美股创新高意味着什么？20260629 摘要 Q&A 本周美股市场表现如何，主要驱动因素有哪些？ 本周美股市场表现强劲，标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数均创历史新高。纳斯达 克指数整体上涨 4.2%，道琼斯指数和标普 500 指数分别上涨 3.8%和 3.4%。 主要驱动因素包括：首先，美联储官员密集发声，表示通胀降温且低于预期， 支持 7 月份降息，导致市场对年底降息三次的预期升温。其次，美国财政部与 七国集团达成协议，可能使美国企业免于缴纳其他国家征收的税项，作为交换， 美国可能在《达美法案》中剔除"899 条款"，缓解了市场对资本税的担忧。 最后，AI 乐观预期重振科技股趋势，美光科技 AI 驱动业绩爆发且前景指引强劲， 以及英伟达在关键技术领域的垄断地位和定价权，使得市场对 AI 加速器需求持 续旺盛保持乐观，AI 叙事重新回到美股主线逻辑。 短期内如何看待美股走势，主要支撑因素有哪些？ 短期内美股预计将以震荡上行为主。主要支撑因素包括：首先，近期美国宏观 经济背景快速改善，地缘冲突缓和，降息概率边际提升，关税冲击尚未明显体 现在硬数据上，看空趋势不断被证伪。其次，美国 AI 投资热潮仍在持续。最后， ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors with high growth certainty in the first half of the year, particularly in AI-PCB, SOC chips, computing power chips, and the Apple supply chain [5][27]. Core Insights - The upcoming COMPUTEX 2025 will showcase significant advancements in AI and related technologies, with major companies like NVIDIA and AMD presenting their latest innovations [2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for consumer electronics driven by product upgrades and AI innovations, predicting a 13.37% revenue growth in the consumer electronics sector for 2024 [6]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a robust recovery, with significant growth in demand for AI-related hardware and components [24][25]. Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - Revenue for consumer electronics in 2024 is projected at 1,642.456 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.25% and a net profit increase of 13.37% [6]. - The demand is driven by both traditional product upgrades and new AI applications, including AI smartphones and robotics [6]. PCB Industry - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, with expectations of continued high demand due to AI and consumer electronics [9]. - The report indicates a strong recovery in the PCB sector, particularly in copper-clad laminate, with anticipated substantial growth in Q2 2025 [9]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is projected to benefit from increased capital expenditures from cloud computing companies, with a notable rise in DRAM and NAND Flash prices expected [23]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials in light of geopolitical tensions and export controls [24]. Key Companies - Companies such as North Huachuang and Hengxuan Technology are highlighted for their strong positions in the semiconductor equipment and AIoT sectors, respectively [29][30]. - Jiangfeng Electronics is noted for its growth in ultra-pure target materials, which are crucial for semiconductor manufacturing [32]. - The report also emphasizes the potential of companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Huiding Technology in benefiting from the AI-driven storage upgrade trend [34][31].