Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within the coverage Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of recent regulations on the blind box market, particularly focusing on the exposure of companies like Pop Mart, Bloks, Miniso, and Shanghai M&G to these regulations [1][2] - It highlights that companies with a more adult-skewed customer base and better control over distribution channels are less likely to be negatively impacted by the regulations [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying product offerings to mitigate risks associated with the blind box category [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Regulatory Impact - On June 20, People's Daily published an article addressing issues related to blind box purchases, particularly among minors, which led to a decline in share prices for companies in the coverage [1][3] - The article noted irrational consumption among minors and recommended stricter regulations, including age restrictions and guardian approval for purchases by minors over 8 years old [3][7] Company Exposure - Pop Mart and Bloks derive a significant portion of their revenue from blind box products, with Bloks having 63% of its revenue from this category in 2023 [2][8] - Miniso and Shanghai M&G have relatively lower exposure to blind box sales, with Miniso's toy category accounting for around 30% of its revenue [2][11] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The report indicates that regulatory news typically has a short-term negative impact on stock prices, but the long-term effects are often mitigated by strong fundamentals and earnings performance [2][8] - Historical data shows that share prices of Pop Mart and Miniso have rebounded after previous regulatory announcements, suggesting that market sentiment can recover quickly under favorable conditions [14][22] Company-Specific Strategies - Pop Mart targets an adult customer base, which may help it manage the impact of regulations, while also expanding its product offerings to include items beyond blind boxes [9][22] - Miniso's diversified product strategy and retail partner model in China help it maintain compliance and mitigate risks associated with specific categories [9][10] - Bloks faces challenges due to its high exposure to the blind box category and a distribution-heavy sales model, which may require more effort to ensure compliance with regulations [10][19] Financial Projections - The report provides sensitivity analyses for Bloks, indicating potential earnings downside risks of 15%-38% if sales from kids-related blind boxes decline significantly [10][19] - For Pop Mart, earnings forecasts have been revised upward for 2025-2027, reflecting strong growth momentum in both domestic and international markets [22][23]

Core Insights - Pop Mart has achieved record-breaking growth and global expansion through emotional consumption and IP innovation, with significant revenue increases projected for 2024 and 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Pop Mart's revenue exceeded RMB 13 billion, marking a fivefold increase since its listing on the HKEX in 2020 [2]. - The company's gross profit margin improved to 66.8% in 2024, with operating profit increasing by 238% [9]. - Revenue from overseas markets rose from 9.8% of total revenue in 2022 to 38.9% in 2024, indicating successful international expansion [11]. Brand Development - Pop Mart transitioned from a trendy variety store to a curated pop toy store, leveraging the blind box trend and original IP collaborations to drive growth [3][4]. - The company has focused on enhancing IP quality and diversifying its product offerings, including lifestyle products and collaborations with cultural IPs [16][28]. Consumer Engagement - Pop Mart has effectively utilized the blind box model to create emotional connections with consumers, fostering loyalty and repeat purchases through marketing and social media engagement [18][19]. - The brand has expanded its IP universe, with characters like "HIRONO" and "LABUBU" resonating with consumers and becoming symbols of self-expression and cultural identity [21][25]. Market Challenges - The competitive landscape in the pop toy industry is intensifying, with emerging players and established IPs posing challenges to Pop Mart's market position [30][32]. - Managing the lifecycle of original IPs and maintaining innovation will be critical for sustaining growth and consumer interest in the long term [32][33].