亲爱的刘关张三位兄弟，你们好！ 到今天了，世界已经发生了巨大的变化，新一代的用户是95后00后，他们是成长在物质极度丰富的环境 下的一批人，他们思考的很多问题，并不见得像60、70、80年代人一样。即便他们真的需要省钱，他们 也不会念你们的好，一个人省钱的内容是无法被传播和发布出来炫耀的，就连我们家的阿姨都会撸个全 妆，美颜开到最大发一个OOTD的朋友圈，因为这是一个花钱和炫耀的时代！ 时间来到了2025年，没想到还能够见到互联网一代目下场的互殴大战，动用的资源惊人的可怕，但是这 场战斗最终的结果可能是三败俱伤。最终收获的人可能还是抖音、小红书、快手这样的更先进的移动互 联网平台，因为他们更加理解用户，能够拥有用户更多的时长，连你们大战互殴的内容也变成了他们的 内容流量，他们用很轻巧的方式去满足了用户的需求。今天中国互联网用户的核心需求就是要有陪伴的 感觉，而这些平台搭建了这样的一个桥梁，通过内容和其他用户的时间来帮助平台去维护和陪伴其他的 用户。新一代互联网平台通过算法巧妙地运用了每一个用户的时间，让时间在流转中产生价值，从而获 取了更多的"用户时间"，也就是所谓的"流量"，用户在这里交换着彼此的时间的同时 ...

周大福(1929)14.16 元 / 短線目標價：15.00 元 /12.8%潛在升幅 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 7 月 9 日星期三 個股推介 催化劑：i) 金價曾創歷史新高，加上高毛利的一口價黃金產品流水佔 比持續提升，及於同期基數較低下，預期內地同店銷售及流水按年跌幅 可望進一步收窄； 估值：股價自我們 3 月初推介起，累計升 60%，現價對應 FY26E 17.8x 預測市盈率，較其業績上行期時平均約 20x 估值仍折讓 11%；公司為 行業龍頭，隨著同店銷售有望好轉，加上收入結構逐步優化，公司估值 可獲向上重估，其 4.7%預期股息率可為股價帶來支持 泡泡瑪特(9992) 269.60 元 / 短線目標價：300.00 元 /16.3%潛在升幅 催化劑：i) 於重點 IP 如 Monsters 系列(包括 Labubu)及新興 IP CRYBABY 熱度持續，隨著重點 IP 近期陸續回補庫存，料公司最快於 7 月中旬發盈喜，並有機會於 1H25 業績上調 FY25E 收入增長指引； 估值：現價對應 FY26E 0.6x 市盈增長率(PEG)，其 PEG 仍低於 Sanrio(8136 JP)同期 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨轻工制造 [Table_Title] 新消费蔚然成风，传统盘踵事增华 ——轻工行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] IP 衍生品情绪消费星河浩瀚，本土文化出海；新烟大势所趋，长坡厚雪的景气赛道；个护供给 创新与渠道变革给予品牌发展新机遇；家居需求磨底，供给缓慢退出，龙头类债投资；造纸供 需有望逐渐平衡，周期磨底回升可期；包装关注高股息方向，以及金属包装格局优化；电动两 轮车短期业绩高增，长期看份额提升、产业布局和出海；出口在不确定的关税政策中寻找确定 性的成长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 蔡方羿 米雁翔 仲敏丽 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490520070002 SAC：S0490522050001 SFC：BUV463 应奇航 章颖佳 SAC：S0490524080008 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 42 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 轻工制造 cjzqdt11111 [Tabl ...

Core Insights - Pop Mart has experienced a significant surge in share price and market capitalization, reaching HKD 336.8 billion, driven by the popularity of its LABUBU product line [1][2] - The company's monthly average daily active users (DAU) on mobile increased by 257% since the beginning of the year, indicating strong consumer engagement [2] - Pop Mart's founder, Wang Ning, has become the richest individual in Henan province due to his 48.73% ownership stake [1] Business Strategy - Pop Mart has established a global creative network of over 200 designers, collaborating with renowned artists to transform artistic concepts into commercial products [3] - The company employs a tiered pricing strategy, offering products ranging from affordable blind boxes to high-end collectibles, catering to different consumer segments [6][7] - Emotional design concepts, such as the "crying as therapy" theme of the CRYBABY IP, resonate deeply with consumers, contributing to a 1,537.2% YoY revenue increase for this emerging IP [4] Product Development - Core IPs like MOLLY and DIMOO continue to evolve, while new IPs like THE MONSTERS have expanded into diverse product categories, resulting in a 726.6% YoY revenue growth [5] - The company has successfully integrated emotional value into its products, enhancing consumer experience and driving sales [11] Consumer Insights - The primary consumer demographic consists of women aged 16 to 35, particularly from Generation Z and young white-collar workers, who are highly engaged with new trends and willing to pay for emotional value [10] - Pop Mart's understanding of consumer psychology allows it to create a purchasing experience that fulfills various emotional needs, fostering brand loyalty [11] Retail Expansion - By the end of 2024, Pop Mart had opened 401 retail stores in high-traffic areas, with a 47.7% YoY increase in offline customer UV index, indicating strong in-store performance [12] - The deployment of 2,300 ROBOSHOPS has enhanced the company's reach in multi-tier cities, improving consumer access and operational efficiency [14] Online Growth - Pop Mart's online channels, including its official mall and WeChat applet, have seen significant growth, with a 76.9% YoY increase in revenue from online sales [17] - The Pop Mart Blind Box Machine's MAU grew by 58.5% in 2024, reflecting strong user engagement and satisfaction [15] Membership and Loyalty - The company has developed a robust membership system, with 46.083 million registered members contributing 92.7% of total sales and a repurchase rate of 49.4% [18][21] - Exclusive benefits for members have significantly boosted customer loyalty and lifetime value [18] Future Outlook - Pop Mart is transitioning from a pop toy manufacturer to a global IP ecosystem operator, with bullish projections from major investment banks regarding its market potential [22] - The company faces challenges in sustaining creative momentum and addressing technology integration, which are crucial for maintaining consumer engagement [23]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC significantly raised the target price for Pop Mart, citing the effectiveness of its multi-IP strategy and the healthy adjustment of Labubu pricing, with a target price increase from HKD 215.50 to HKD 331.50, representing a 53.8% increase and a 32% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - HSBC raised the 2025 net profit forecast for Pop Mart by 24%, driven by strong performance in overseas markets and the successful launch of Labubu 3.0 [1][5] - The revenue forecast for 2025 was increased by 34% to RMB 14.325 billion, with an expected year-on-year growth of 183% [2] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is now projected to be RMB 7.856 billion, a 131% increase year-on-year, which is 23% higher than previous estimates [5] Group 2: Market Performance - Labubu 3.0 series launched in April 2025 gained unprecedented attention due to promotion by international celebrities and KOLs, leading to strong product momentum [2] - The resale prices of Labubu 3.0 have normalized, which is beneficial for maintaining the brand's health and reducing speculative hoarding [5] - The U.S. market revenue forecast was significantly raised from RMB 3.547 billion to RMB 5.509 billion, reflecting the positive outlook for overseas markets [2] Group 3: Multi-IP Strategy - The success of Pop Mart is not solely dependent on the Labubu IP, as new series releases and other IPs continue to engage consumer interest [3] - In Thailand and other Asian markets, these regions account for over 40% and 30% of overseas revenue, respectively, indicating a diverse revenue stream [3] - The Google search index for Crybaby, the company's fourth-largest IP, surged in the quarters following the peak interest in Labubu, demonstrating the sustainability of the company's IP operations [3]

泡泡玛特 20250624 摘要 2025 年初，泡泡玛特一代和二代产品集中放货导致股价下跌，但公司 IP 热度并未受影响，随后价格有所回升。618 期间，Labubu 三代产品 溢价过高，公司通过补货打击黄牛炒作，并采取多批次预售以稳定价格， 此举有利于品牌长期发展。 泡泡玛特 IP 具有周期性，但糖胶毛绒品类放大了 IP 特性，使其受欢迎度 大幅提升。Labubu 在东南亚爆火后，对中国市场形成映射，北美市场 热度也在 2025 年 4 月后爆发，Google Trend 搜索热度显示其在不同 市场均有增长迹象，未来发展潜力巨大。 Labubu 与玲娜贝儿相比，具有更强的全球化属性，不仅在北美市场表 现出色，还在中东、南美等地表现突出，在俄罗斯线上市场也有显著影 响力。Labubu 在东南亚市场自 2024 年 4 月底开始热度持续上升，需 求强劲。 泡泡玛特通过引入更多 IP，如大耳狗、帕恰狗和库洛米等，实现了收入 来源的均衡分布，降低对单一 IP 的依赖。2024 年大耳狗占公司收入比 例约为 20%，预计 2025 年将保持在 40%以下。 Q&A 如何看待泡泡玛特补货和二手市场价格的变化？ 泡泡玛 ...

商报讯（记者 叶晓珺）近期，泡泡玛特的话题度持续发酵，除了线下消费渠道盲盒价格暴跌之外，股 价亦是从历史高点下跌了超15%，市值蒸发超500亿港元。至此，港股"新消费三姐妹"股价均开启"降 温"模式，其中，老铺黄金跌幅超过19%，蜜雪集团跌幅近17%。 对于此轮回调，机构表示，尽管泡泡玛特凭借优质的IP、强大的品牌影响力和不断拓展的市场份额，具 备一定的价值支撑，但过高的估值仍可能使其面临回调风险。同时，新消费赛道迎来"冷静期"，市场降 温恰恰也是市场重构认知、修正新消费投资框架的最佳窗口。 泡泡玛特股价回调 市值蒸发超500亿港元 虽说Labubu的人气持续在线，但受泡泡玛特官方大量补货影响，该产品在二手市场的交易价格暴跌。 据潮玩二手交易软件"千岛"的数据，截至6月19日，"前方高能"系列隐藏款"本我"三日成交均价为2547.8 元，较此前下跌45%；非隐藏款价格跌幅更大，以"爱"款为例，三日成交均价为206.83元，较此前暴跌 54%。 二级市场方面，泡泡玛特股价也迎来了波动。6月20日，泡泡玛特股价低开低走，盘中一度下跌超6%， 截至当日收盘报239.6港元/股，跌幅收窄至3.62%，全天成交额明显放 ...

【#labubu高溢价劝退老玩家#，泡泡玛特4款IP年营收超10亿】 财报数据显示，2024年，MOLLY实现营收20.9亿元，同比增长105.2%；SKULLPANDA营收13.1亿元， 同比增长27.7%；CRYBABY营收11.6亿元，同比增长1537.2%，是增长最快的新锐IP和销售额最快突破 10亿元的IP之一。 据时代财经报道，LABUBU爆火后，买到它的难度却越来越高。 "蹲发售像抢春运票。"玩家Ella如是形容。不仅线上盲盒秒罄、线下门店被黄牛整盒扫货，海外甚至出 现"为抢搪胶公仔大打出手"的场景。6月18日，二手平台数据显示，LABUBU快闪店入场券被炒至2400 元，初代搪胶公仔溢价超20倍。 高溢价劝退了一些老玩家，小玛就表示，"想要LABUBU火，但不想被黄牛炒价格"。合理范围的溢价能 接受，但Ella认为没有必要购买黄牛手中溢价几十倍的娃娃。对于现在LABUBU在二手市场的交易行 为，ELla一方面害怕买到仿品，另一方面她更喜欢自己随机抽盲盒的惊喜感，她更看重与娃娃的缘分。 这个名叫LABUBU的潮玩IP，是中国香港艺术家龙家升创作的MONSTERS精灵天团成员，2018年入市 即成 ...

智通财经6月20日电，北京泡泡玛特文化创意有限公司已申请注册多枚"CRYBABY"等商标，国际分类 涉及教育娱乐、啤酒饮料、机械设备等，目前部分商标已注册成功。与此同时，该公司已于今年登记 《LABUBU 与朋友们》动画剧集第一季剧本V1 作品著作权，作品类别为文字。 泡泡玛特已注册CRYBABY商标 ...

Core Insights - Labubu, a plush toy from Pop Mart, has gained significant popularity, leading the company to achieve nearly $2 billion in annual sales and marking a rare global breakthrough for a Chinese consumer brand [1] - The toy's appeal is described as a "universal language," resonating with consumers who prefer rebellious over traditional cute designs [2] - Pop Mart has initiated an ambitious global expansion plan, aiming to replicate Lego's success by increasing sales in overseas markets [2] Company Performance - Pop Mart's revenue from outside mainland China reached 5.1 billion RMB, accounting for approximately 39% of total revenue [4] - The stock price of Pop Mart has surged over five times in the past year due to the demand for Labubu, leading to temporary sales suspensions in London and Seoul due to crowd-related incidents [4] Market Dynamics - The blind box sales model has stimulated repeat purchases, creating a vibrant secondary market where some Labubu toys sell for three times their original price [3][5] - The emotional connection of these toys is highlighted, particularly among young consumers in China, many of whom are only children and may feel lonely [6] Growth Potential - The explosive growth of Labubu has exposed Pop Mart to the volatile and competitive collectible toy market, with the ability to continuously launch new characters being crucial for future growth [7] - The sales of the series to which Labubu belongs increased over seven times last year, contributing to one-fifth of Pop Mart's revenue, while other product lines also saw rapid growth [7]