刻画这个时代 以下文章来源于远川研究所 ，作者李墨天 远川研究所 . 期间泡泡玛特的关键变化是激进扩产，大幅解决了缺货问题。但"稀缺性丧失"，成为大部分看空方的 核心依据。 德意志银行在12月的研报中提出：泡泡玛特依靠高密度的交易量维持门店效率，但一些海外门店已 经没人排队了。同时，公司主动释放产能，会降低Labubu的稀缺属性，让消费者失去新鲜感，门店 交易额无法维持。 另一家研究机构伯恩斯坦用两份合计近130页的研报重拳出击 [3] ，将泡泡玛特定性为"投机型IP"， 和Hello Kitty、芭比娃娃这些真正的"常青IP"有本质区别。只要社交媒体的热度过去，就没人买了。 本文来自微信公众号： 远川研究所 ，作者：李墨天，编辑：张婕妤，题图来自：虎嗅（孔雯青拍 摄） 今年8月泡泡玛特发财报，半年时间赚了去年一整年的钱，创始人王宁喜不自胜 [1] ：本来希望能做 到200亿，但感觉今年应该300亿也很轻松。 资本市场最喜欢干的就是打脸。半年报发完，泡泡玛特市值突破4500亿历史新高，接着急转直下。 此后4个月，公司股价回撤44%，市值蒸发了2000亿。 一、不存在的假设 伯恩斯坦的报告中，提出了泡泡玛特存在 ...

作者丨 李墨天 图源丨泡泡玛特 以下文章来源于远川研究所 ，作者李墨天 远川研究所 . 刻画这个时代 来源丨 远川研究所 （ YuanChuanInstitution ） 今年8月泡泡玛特发财报，半年时间赚了去年一整年的钱，创始人王宁喜不自胜 [1] ： 本来希望能做 到200亿，但感觉今年应该300亿也很轻松。 资本市场最喜欢干的就是打脸。半年报发完，泡泡玛特市值突破4500亿历史新高，接着急转直下。 期间泡泡玛特的关键变化是激进扩产，大幅解决了缺货问题。但"稀缺性丧失"，成为大部分看空方的 核心依据。 德意志银行在12月的研报中提出：泡泡玛特依靠高密度的交易量维持门店效率，但一些海外门店已经 没人排队了。同时，公司主动释放产能，会降低Labubu的稀缺属性，让消费者失去新鲜感，门店交 此后4个月，公司股价回撤44%，市值蒸发了2000亿。 易额无法维持。 另一家研究机构伯恩斯坦用两份合计近130页的研报重拳出击 [3] ，将泡泡玛特定性为 "投机型 IP " ，和Hello Kitty、芭比娃娃这些真正的 "常青IP" 有本质区别。只要社交媒体的热度过去，就没人买 了。 正所谓竞技体育菜是原罪，二级市场跌 ...

情绪价值也是生产力。 文 ｜ 李墨天 编辑 ｜ 张婕妤 来源｜ 远川研究所（ID：YuanChuanInstitution） 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 今年8月泡泡玛特发财报，半年时间赚了去年一整年的钱，创始人王宁喜不自胜 [1] ： 本来希望能做到200亿，但感觉今年应该300亿也很轻松。 资本市场最喜欢干的就是打脸。半年报发完，泡泡玛特市值突破4500亿历史新高，接着急转直下。此后4个月，公司股价回撤44%，市值蒸发了2000亿。 以下文章来源于远川研究所 ，作者李墨天 远川研究所 . 刻画这个时代 期间泡泡玛特的关键变化是激进扩产，大幅解决了缺货问题。但"稀缺性丧失"，成为大部分看空方的核心依据。 德意志银行在12月的研报中提出：泡泡玛特依靠高密度的交易量维持门店效率，但一些海外门店已经没人排队了。同时，公司主动释放产能，会降低 Labubu的稀缺属性，让消费者失去新鲜感，门店交易额无法维持。 另一家研究机构伯恩斯坦用两份合计近130页的研报重拳出击 [3] ，将泡泡玛特定性为 "投机型 IP " ，和Hello Kitty、芭比娃娃这些真正的 "常青IP" 有本 质区别。只要社交媒体的热度过去， ...

新浪科技讯 12月21日下午消息，近日，泡泡玛特创始人、董事长兼CEO王宁现身公司旗下CRYBABY 特展现场，引发大量参展人围观。 有趣的是，由于泡泡玛特近期股价大幅度回落，在一些社交平台上，王宁现身CRYBABY特展现场图片 流出后，大量网友就泡泡玛特股价事宜展开讨论。并公开喊话王宁道："回购一些股票吧，跌成狗了。" 今年8月，伴随泡泡玛特旗下Labubu系列玩具热销并多次卖断货，泡泡玛特股价一路飙升，暴涨至 339.80港元/股历史高点，但很快，随着大量仿制品的出现，泡泡玛特股价开始下跌，迄今仅有192.90港 元/股，高点后跌幅超43.23%。 责任编辑：何俊熹 新浪科技讯 12月21日下午消息，近日，泡泡玛特创始人、董事长兼CEO王宁现身公司旗下CRYBABY 特展现场，引发大量参展人围观。 有趣的是，由于泡泡玛特近期股价大幅度回落，在一些社交平台上，王宁现身CRYBABY特展现场图片 流出后，大量网友就泡泡玛特股价事宜展开讨论。并公开喊话王宁道："回购一些股票吧，跌成狗了。" 今年8月，伴随泡泡玛特旗下Labubu系列玩具热销并多次卖断货，泡泡玛特股价一路飙升，暴涨至 339.80港元/股历史高点 ...

文｜新消费早参 狂飙的泡泡玛特，在股价上踩了急刹车。 昨天，泡泡玛特股价又跌了5个点，以190.3港元/股收盘。这一表现较8月份高点的339.8港元/股已然缩 水近44%。市值蒸发超2000亿港元，几乎等同于一个海天味业。 这并非是新课题。当一个主打创意、IP、文化娱乐的品牌公司，开始进行规模化工业生产时，泡泡玛特 就已陷入"可获得性悖论"：稀缺的潮流IP或将沦为大众消费品。 对标"前辈"迪士尼先后布局娱乐、体育、体验等业务板块，国潮泡泡玛特可能还有很长的路要走。 股价"跌跌不休" 在最近7个交易日，泡泡玛特股价只有两日飘红。且在飘绿交易日中，该公司股价动辄就下滑八九个 点。 如果对比近期股价制高点的8月29日（339.8港元/股），泡泡玛特市值已经缩水超4成。 自2020年底登陆港股，泡泡玛特以80港元/股的发行价出现在股民面前。在2022年第四季度，其股价跌 落谷底，跌破10元。但从2024年2月底，泡泡玛特股价开始回升，至2024年10月底，其股价再度逼近发 行价。此后便一路走高，至2025年8月29日的盘中339.8港元/股。 粗略估算一下，泡泡玛特这一波下跌行情已经持续了3个多月时间。 根据外部消息 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates Pop Mart shares as a Buy, indicating a strong investment opportunity in the pop toy sector [12][4]. Core Insights - Pop Mart is recognized as a leading player in the pop toy industry in China, with a strong capability in IP incubation and operation, which positions it well for growth in the consumer market [12][11]. - The company is expected to see improved investor confidence with upcoming product launches and the popularity of its non-LABUBU IPs in international markets [1]. - The report highlights the company's proactive approach to managing growth sustainability and addressing single IP risks through a diversified IP ecosystem [3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the projected net profit is RMB 13,551 million, with a diluted EPS of RMB 10.160, reflecting a significant growth of 333% compared to the previous year [3][7]. - The expected total return on shares is 93.9%, with a target price set at HK$415.00, representing a potential share price return of 91.8% from the current price of HK$216.40 [4][7]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to enhance the LABUBU IP with new product launches and designs, aiming for a strong market presence in 2026 [2]. - Pop Mart is expanding its international footprint, with plans to operate over 60 stores in the US by the end of 2025 and additional stores in Canada, Mexico, and the Middle East [8]. - The company is focusing on localized operations in overseas markets, including collaborations with local artists and IP designs [8]. Supply Chain Management - Pop Mart is optimizing its production strategy by initially producing 70% of projected sales volume and adjusting stock based on market demand, which is expected to improve sales projection accuracy [9]. - The company has expanded its overseas supply chain, with a portion of production now in Vietnam, and plans to establish more local warehouses for international markets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The market's concerns regarding Pop Mart's growth sustainability and single IP risk are considered excessive, with the company's core value lying in its unparalleled IP incubation and operational capabilities [1][4]. Group 1: IP Strength and Growth - The flagship IP Labubu has strong vitality, with its 4.0 version postponed to 2026 due to high demand for Labubu 3.0, and Sony Pictures is reported to have acquired the film adaptation rights, potentially enhancing the IP's global recognition [4][8]. - The company is diversifying its growth engines by actively managing online pre-sale scales to ensure sustainable IP operations, with a successful IP matrix formed around Labubu, SKULLPANDA, and CRYBABY, effectively mitigating risks [4][9]. Group 2: Global Expansion and Market Performance - Pop Mart's global expansion is exceeding expectations, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, with plans to optimize operations and deepen local market channels [6][10]. - The company aims to operate over 60 stores in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with additional plans for Canada, Latin America, and the Middle East, emphasizing localized operations and partnerships [10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Financial projections indicate significant growth, with net profit expected to rise from 1.082 billion RMB in 2023 to 23.169 billion RMB by 2027, and diluted EPS increasing from 0.807 RMB to 17.370 RMB over the same period [7]. - Citi has set a target price of 415.00 HKD for Pop Mart, representing a potential upside of 91.8% from the closing price of 216.40 HKD, based on a 28x P/E ratio for 2026 [1][13].

Core Viewpoint - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is being held in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, showcasing the global leading trend culture and entertainment group, Pop Mart, which highlights its popular IPs SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, creating an immersive experience for attendees [1][3]. Group 1: Event Highlights - Pop Mart's exhibition theme is "Creating Trends, Boundless Play," featuring a birthday celebration design to commemorate the company's 15th anniversary, creating a warm and festive atmosphere [3]. - The exhibition booth includes a giant birthday cake adorned with various IP characters that have accompanied the brand's growth, symbolizing the connection to a beautiful life [3]. Group 2: IP Showcase - Pop Mart emphasizes its popular IPs SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, with SKULLPANDA designed by artist 熊喵, representing the aesthetic of "boundless imagery" and encouraging self-exploration [5]. - CRYBABY, created by Thai artist Molly, focuses on emotional expression and resonates deeply with global audiences, advocating for facing emotions and moving forward [5]. - The exhibition also features limited edition products that incorporate local cultures, enhancing the connection with global consumers [5]. Group 3: Product Innovation - Pop Mart showcases a variety of products, including figurines and plush toys, allowing attendees to experience the brand's unique culture and service [6]. - The company continues to innovate product categories, expanding consumer engagement through the use of PVC plush toys that enhance expression and display [6]. - Pop Mart has developed a diverse product matrix and is exploring new business areas such as building blocks, desserts, and jewelry, breathing new life into its IPs [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company reports that all four major regions achieved over 100% growth in the first half of 2025, with the Americas experiencing a tenfold increase, indicating a successful internationalization strategy [8]. - Pop Mart aims to maintain its brand essence and collaborate with artists to create a better trend lifestyle in the future [10].

Group 1: Market Trends - The China International Import Expo showcases a variety of intelligent products and trendy items, reflecting new consumer themes, scenarios, and trends in the market [1] - Exhibitors express confidence in the Chinese market due to a transparent and stable policy environment, as well as a fair and inclusive market atmosphere [1][2] - The demand for health-related products is on the rise, with companies like lululemon noting that the Chinese market has become one of their fastest-growing regions [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable increase in consumer awareness regarding health products, with a growing demand for high-quality, environmentally friendly, and natural health products [2] - Interest consumption is expanding, as seen with brands like PEZ and Pop Mart, which leverage emotional connections through popular IPs to attract consumers [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The trend of intelligent upgrades is evident, with companies like Samsung integrating AI into their products to enhance consumer experiences [4] - SYR Hansgrohe showcases AI applications in their products, such as a dual-tank soft water system that learns user habits and predicts water usage trends [4]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is being held from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai, showcasing various brands including Pop Mart, which emphasizes its theme of "Creating Trends, Boundless Play" [1][4] - Pop Mart prominently features its popular IPs, SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, creating an immersive experience for attendees [4] Group 1: Event Highlights - Pop Mart's exhibition design is inspired by a "birthday celebration," creating a warm and festive atmosphere with a giant birthday cake adorned with various IP characters [1] - The SKULLPANDA character, created by artist 熊喵, embodies the aesthetic concept of "boundless imagery," while CRYBABY, designed by Thai artist Molly, focuses on emotional expression and resonates globally [4] Group 2: Product and Market Expansion - Pop Mart showcases a diverse range of products including figurines and plush toys, enhancing the customer experience with smooth offline services and unique brand culture [4] - The company is expanding its product matrix to include new categories such as building blocks, desserts, and jewelry, breathing new life into its IPs and enriching consumer experiences [4] - By 2025, Pop Mart aims for triple-digit growth across four major regions, with the Americas experiencing over tenfold growth, marking a significant milestone in its international strategy [4] Group 3: Global Presence - Pop Mart continues to establish its presence in iconic global locations, opening its first store in landmark areas such as Cambridge, UK, and Bali, Indonesia, with a total of over 570 stores worldwide [5] - The company has also opened its first store in the Middle East at Hamad International Airport in Doha, becoming the first Chinese brand to enter this airport [5]