Core Viewpoint - Citi's report predicts that Pop Mart (09992) will enhance its ability to withstand IP cyclical risks through a diversified strategy centered on IP, revitalizing new demand [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - Recent data tracking by Citi shows an increase in app downloads, particularly in China and the US, driven mainly by the launch of the new series Skullpanda x My Little Pony [1] - Citi observes high consumer interest in the new series on Instagram, indicating strong market engagement [1] - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 415, based on a projected 28x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers and Market Potential - Looking ahead to 2026, Citi forecasts that breakthroughs in IP diversification, product innovation, and monetization across various fields will drive growth for the company [1] - The next hit IP launch and the popularity of non-LABUBU IP in overseas markets are expected to boost investor confidence [1] - Other iconic IP products like SKULLPANDA, TWINKLE TWINKLE, and CRYBABY are emerging as new growth drivers with their own fan bases, not merely substitutes for LABUBU [1] Group 3: Market Expansion and Competitive Position - Investor discussions about Pop Mart's growth sustainability are focused on the US market, which presents a large potential market size [2] - The company's global expansion is expected to be supported by organizational upgrades, localized operations, and strengthened supply chains [2] - Compared to most global toy and IP peers, Pop Mart commands a premium, likely due to its rapid growth driven by overseas expansion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citi predicts that Pop Mart (09992) will enhance its ability to withstand IP cyclical risks and revive new demand through its IP-centric diversification strategy [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Recent data tracking by Citi shows an increase in app downloads, particularly in China and the United States, driven by the launch of the new Skullpanda x My Little Pony series [1] - Citi observes high consumer interest in the new series on Instagram, indicating strong market engagement [1] - The company is rated "Buy" by Citi, with a target price of 415 HKD based on a projected 28x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Citi forecasts that breakthroughs in IP diversification, product innovation, and monetization across various fields will drive growth for the company by 2026 [1] - The next hit IP launch and the popularity of non-LABUBU IPs in overseas markets are expected to boost investor confidence [1] - Other iconic IP products like SKULLPANDA, TWINKLE TWINKLE, and CRYBABY are becoming new growth drivers with their own fan bases, rather than merely serving as substitutes for LABUBU [1] Group 3: Market Expansion - Discussions among investors regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart's growth are focused on the U.S. market [2] - The large potential market size in overseas markets, along with global organizational upgrades, localized operations, and strengthened supply chains, should facilitate global expansion this year and beyond [2] - Compared to most global toy and IP peers, Pop Mart commands a premium, likely due to its rapid growth driven by overseas expansion [2]

花旗发表研报指出，预测泡泡玛特(9992.HK)以IP为核心的多元化策略，可增强其抵御IP周期性风险的 能力，重振新需求。花旗每周数据追踪显示，近期APP下载量呈上升趋势，尤其中国和美国，认为主要 受旗下Skullpanda x My Little Pony新系列的发布；展望2026年，花旗预测集团在IP多元化、产品创新及 广泛领域变现能力的突破将驱动增长。报告提及，集团的其他标志性IP产品，如SKULLPANDA、 CRYBABY正成为新的增长动力，并拥有各自的粉丝群体，这并非单纯作为LABUBU的替代品。预测非 LABUBUIP在今年具上行潜力，其近期的全球消费者调查结果亦显示，海外市场对非LABUBU IP的兴 趣可能被低估。花旗予泡泡玛特买入评级，目标价为415港元，基于2026年预测28倍市盈率；集团相较 大多数全球玩具及IP同业存在溢价，或归因于其海外扩张驱动的快速增长。与国内同行相比，花旗亦相 信泡泡玛特凭借其领先地位应享有溢价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has announced significant growth in its global sales and revenue for 2025, driven by its successful IPs, particularly THE MONSTERS series, which has become a global phenomenon [3][4]. Group 1: Sales and Revenue Performance - In 2025, Pop Mart's global sales of all IP products are expected to exceed 400 million units, with THE MONSTERS series alone surpassing 100 million units [3]. - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [3]. - By the third quarter of 2025, revenue is projected to grow by 245%-250%, with domestic revenue increasing by 185%-190% and overseas revenue by 365%-370% [4]. Group 2: Key IP Performance - In the first half of 2025, 13 IPs generated over 100 million yuan in revenue, with 5 IPs exceeding 1 billion yuan, including THE MONSTERS, MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO [4]. - THE MONSTERS series, particularly LABUBU, achieved the highest revenue of 4.81 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year growth of 668.0%, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The global trend toy market is projected to grow from $20.3 billion in 2020 to $52 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.8% [5]. - Competitors in the trend toy sector, such as Miniso and 52TOYS, are intensifying their efforts, prompting Pop Mart to solidify its competitive advantages and build a strong market position [5]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To maintain IP engagement, it is suggested that Pop Mart learn from Disney by enriching IPs with deeper stories and cultural elements, and by fostering closer connections with consumers [5]. - Developing proprietary IPs and enhancing membership benefits are seen as crucial strategies for extending customer loyalty and lifecycle [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the positive outlook for Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) following its share buyback announcements, indicating strong confidence in its development and upgrading the rating from "Accumulate" to "Buy" [1][6]. Group 1: Share Buyback and Financial Performance - Pop Mart has conducted multiple share buybacks, including 1.4 million shares at prices ranging from HKD 177.7 to 181.2, totaling HKD 250 million, and 500,000 shares at an average price of HKD 192.9791, totaling HKD 96.49 million [1]. - The buyback shares are intended for cancellation to enhance earnings per share [1]. Group 2: Business Growth and IP Performance - The overall business performance is expected to exceed expectations, with a focus on offline shopping experiences and store operations, which may positively influence revenue growth despite online sales being affected by strategic channel balancing [2]. - In the first half of 2025, five major IPs generated over 1 billion yuan in revenue, with significant year-on-year growth rates for various IPs, including THEMONSTERS (+668.0%) and MOLLY (+73.5%) [3]. - The introduction of multi-IP product series has increased exposure and cross-selling opportunities among different IPs, contributing to strong sales performance [3]. Group 3: IP Development and Market Trends - The company continuously attracts top IP artists, ensuring a steady flow of design inspiration and maintaining a leading position in product development and IP management [4]. - The emotional consumption trend among youth is expected to drive the demand for collectible toys, with the market projected to reach a scale of 100 billion yuan by 2025 [5]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of 38.384 billion, 52.768 billion, and 65.698 billion yuan, respectively, and net profits of 13.291 billion, 18.599 billion, and 23.91 billion yuan [6]. - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 14, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting a positive investment outlook [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated confidence in its growth by continuously repurchasing shares, which is expected to enhance earnings per share. The rating has been upgraded from "Accumulate" to "Buy" [1][6]. Group 1: Share Buyback and Financial Performance - The company repurchased 1.4 million shares at a price range of HKD 177.7-181.2, totaling HKD 250 million on January 19, and 500,000 shares at an average price of HKD 192.9791, totaling HKD 96.49 million on January 21 [1]. - The company aims to cancel the repurchased shares to improve earnings per share [1]. Group 2: Business Growth and IP Performance - The company’s overall business performance is expected to exceed expectations, with a focus on enhancing in-store shopping experiences and consumer engagement [2]. - In the first half of 2025, five major IPs generated over 1 billion yuan in revenue, with significant year-on-year growth rates for various IPs, including THEMONSTERS (+668.0%) and MOLLY (+73.5%) [3]. - The company has successfully launched multi-IP product series to increase exposure and cross-selling opportunities among its IPs [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The emotional consumption trend among youth is growing, with 56.3% of young consumers willing to spend for emotional value, an increase of 16.2 percentage points from 2024 [5]. - The collectible toy market is projected to reach a scale of 100 billion yuan by 2025, indicating sustained high demand in the emotional consumption era [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 38.384 billion, 52.768 billion, and 65.698 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits and earnings per share also adjusted upwards [6]. - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 14, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Pop Mart (09992) is actively repurchasing shares, indicating confidence in its future performance and market position [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic market is showing upward momentum, with Pop Mart having a large and sticky user base, supported by a diversified IP matrix [1] - Key IPs such as MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO are performing well, while the popularity of the Star People IP is rapidly increasing [1] - Recent actions to adjust supply and stabilize the second-hand market prices are seen as a strategy to regain pricing power and create a healthier commercial ecosystem based on real consumer demand [1] Group 2: Overseas Market Potential - There is significant potential in overseas markets, which are still in the early stages of development compared to the domestic market, with strong certainty for future channel expansion [2] - Challenges include short IP cycles, weaker channel capacity, and reliance on single IPs, necessitating improvements in supply chain and logistics [2] - The U.S. market, as a key consumer market for trendy toys, presents substantial growth opportunities, with a focus on operational capabilities in the short term and IP-driven growth in the long term [2] Group 3: Sales Tracking - Google Trends data indicates that the search popularity of Pop Mart's core IP "Labubu" peaked around Christmas and has remained above average since then, with a slight increase as the end of December approaches [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its future performance and market position [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic market is experiencing an upward trend in demand [1] - The company has a large and highly engaged user base, with a diversified IP matrix maintaining popularity [1] - Recent actions to adjust supply and demand dynamics have led to a more balanced market, allowing the company to regain pricing power [1] - The reasonable pricing in the secondary market fosters a healthy commercial ecosystem based on genuine consumer demand, which is beneficial for long-term user base expansion and brand value accumulation [1] Group 2: Overseas Market Potential - There is significant potential in overseas markets, which are still in the early stages of development compared to the domestic market [2] - The company is actively increasing offline supply to encourage consumers to shift from online to offline purchasing [2] - Challenges include short IP cycles, weaker channel capacity, and reliance on single IPs, necessitating improvements in supply chain and logistics [2] - The U.S. market, as a key consumer market for trendy toys, presents substantial growth opportunities, with a focus on operational capabilities in the short term and IP-driven growth in the long term [2] Group 3: Sales Tracking - Google Trends data indicates that the search interest for the company's core IP "Labubu" peaked around Christmas and remains above average [3]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its market position and future growth potential [1] Group 1: Domestic Market - The domestic market is experiencing an upward trend, with Pop Mart having a large and highly engaged user base [1] - The company's diverse IP matrix, including MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO, maintains balanced popularity, while the STAR PERSON IP is rapidly gaining traction [1] - Recent actions to frequently release products have helped stabilize the second-hand market prices, allowing the company to regain pricing power and create a healthier commercial ecosystem based on real consumer demand [1] Group 2: Overseas Market - The overseas market presents significant potential, with many global markets still in the early stages of development and lower channel density compared to the domestic market [1] - There is a strong certainty for future channel expansion, although challenges such as short IP cycles and reliance on single IPs exist [1] - The company is actively increasing offline supply globally to encourage consumers to shift from online to offline purchases [1] - Supply chain issues have arisen due to substantial growth in the American market, necessitating improvements in logistics, product structure, and local team configurations [1] Group 3: Operational Strategy - The company should prioritize resolving operational issues before focusing on IP product expansion to support long-term overseas development [2] - The U.S. market, as a key consumer market for trendy toys, offers significant growth potential, with a strategy of building operational capabilities in the short term and leveraging IP potential for long-term growth [2] Group 4: Sales Tracking and Profit Forecast - Google Trends data indicates that the search popularity of Pop Mart's core IP "Labubu" peaked around Christmas, remaining above average levels [2] - Profit forecasts for the company project net profits of 135.1 billion, 179.0 billion, and 216.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0X, 13.6X, and 11.3X [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has announced a share buyback plan, spending HKD 251 million to repurchase 1.4 million shares at a price range of HKD 177.7 to 181.2 per share [1] - The domestic market is experiencing upward momentum, with a large and sticky user base, and a diversified IP matrix maintaining its popularity [2] - The company is actively adjusting its supply and production to stabilize the second-hand market prices, which is beneficial for long-term brand value and user base expansion [2] - The overseas market presents significant potential, with many global markets still in the early stages of development and a strong certainty for future channel expansion [2] - The company is focusing on resolving supply chain and logistics issues before prioritizing IP product layout for better long-term overseas development [2] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be CNY 135.1 billion, CNY 179.0 billion, and CNY 216.1 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.0X, 13.6X, and 11.3X [3] - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow significantly, with expected revenues of CNY 38.891 billion in 2025, CNY 50.835 billion in 2026, and CNY 61.142 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 198%, 31%, and 20% respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from CNY 10.07 in 2025 to CNY 16.11 in 2027 [5] Key Financial Metrics - The company's operating income is expected to reach CNY 13,038 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 107% [5] - The gross margin is projected to be 66.79% in 2024, increasing to 78.24% by 2027 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 29.26% in 2024, decreasing to 41.85% by 2027 [8]