最近特朗普政府突然直接打出一张金融王炸，美国众议院以395比2的压倒性票数，通过所谓台湾保护法 案，扬言要把中国踢出全球核心美元金融体系。 消息一出，岛内不少人跟着起哄，可唯独赖清德愁眉苦脸，一点都高兴不起来。这到底是怎么回事？ 美国想拿美元霸权卡死中国脖子 可他们忘了，美元霸权早就不是铁板一块。根据国家外汇管理局2026年1月发布的官方数据，我国外汇 储备稳定在3.4万亿美元以上，人民币跨境结算占对外收付比例持续提升，CIPS跨境支付系统2024年交 易金额同比增长43%，已经成为替代SWIFT的可靠通道。 美国以为这是王炸，其实不过是把美元武器化的老套路，早就被世界各国看透了。 金融制裁从来都是双刃剑 美国不是第一次用这招，之前对俄罗斯、对伊朗都用过，结果怎么样呢？ 2022年俄乌冲突爆发，美国联合欧洲把俄罗斯部分银行踢出SWIFT，号称金融核弹，结果俄罗斯快速建 立本土支付系统，推动油气贸易卢布结算，不到两年就稳住金融局面，反倒加速全球去美元化浪潮。 央视网和中央纪委国家监委网站都曾报道，美国前财长耶伦公开承认，对俄SWIFT制裁，直接引发全球 多国加速抛弃美元，动摇美元根基。 特朗普这届政府，上来就没 ...

Group 1: Currency Exchange and Economic Predictions - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to rise above 7.0 by the end of 2025, marking a 14-month high, influenced by the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and global capital flow shifts [1] - Economist Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB will appreciate to around 6.0 against the USD over the next decade, supported by China's industrial value added accounting for 32% of the global economy [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates by a total of 200 basis points by the end of 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00-4.25% [3] - The USD index is expected to decline from 105 to below 95, prompting investors to reassess global asset allocations [3] - By the second half of 2025, Chinese companies are anticipated to sell off $800 billion in USD assets, primarily investing in technology sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy [3] Group 3: Impact on Import and Export Sectors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit import enterprises, with China's oil import costs projected to decrease by approximately 5% due to exchange rate factors, saving over $1 billion for petrochemical companies [4] - Conversely, the export sector faces challenges, with a projected 5% decline in exports to the US, leading to reduced orders for textile companies [6] Group 4: Cross-Border Capital Flows and Payment Systems - By 2025, northbound capital inflows are expected to exceed 150 billion RMB, doubling from 2024, with significant investments in high-dividend assets [6] - The CIPS cross-border payment system is projected to handle 12% of SWIFT's transaction volume, with RMB payments accounting for 30%, facilitating capital repatriation [6] Group 5: Global Currency Dynamics - The RMB's weight in the IMF's SDR basket is expected to rise to 12.28% by 2025, with countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia beginning to use RMB for oil trade settlements [6] - Criticism of the US for misusing dollar hegemony is growing, particularly as its budget deficit reaches 6% of GDP while continuing to lower interest rates [6] Group 6: Economic Structure and Trade Dynamics - China's export of new energy vehicles is projected to reach $120 billion by 2025, a sevenfold increase since 2019, while integrated circuit exports are expected to rise from $100 billion to $150 billion [10] - The US's attempts to reverse trade deficits through tariffs have resulted in an overall widening of its trade deficit [10]