文 | 赵伟、董易、王胜、陈达飞、 李欣越、 赵宇、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越、董易 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一）大类资产：新年行情港股大涨，金银价格快速下跌 当周，发达市场股指涨跌互现、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，恒生指数、英国富时 100、德国DAX分别上涨2.0%、0.8%、0.7%，纳指、道琼斯工业平均、标普500分别下跌1.5%、1.3%、 1.0%；新兴市场股指方面，韩国综合指数、胡志明指数、开罗CASE30分别上涨4.4%、3.2%、1.4%，南非富 时指数、巴西IBOVESPA指数分别下跌1.1%、0.2%。 当周，美国标普500行业多数下跌。能源、公用事业、工业分别上涨3.3%、0.9%、0.5%，可选消费、信 息技术、金融分别下跌3.2%、1.5%、1.3%；欧元区行业多数上涨，科技、公用事业、能源分别上涨4.3%、 2.6%、2.0%，仅医疗保健下跌0.2%。 当周，恒生指数悉数上涨，行业方面涨跌互现。恒生科技、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数分别上涨 4.3%、2.0%、2.8%。行业方面，能源、资讯科技、原材料分别上涨4.2%、3.8%、3.7%，必需性消费 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the US stock market has experienced a decline due to multiple factors, including concerns over high valuations in the artificial intelligence sector, a record-length government shutdown, and the absence of key economic data leading to confusion in expectations [2][8] - The report highlights that the current market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 66.5% [2][8] - Key economic data for October shows that the ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 48.7, below expectations of 49.5, while the ADP employment number is at 42,000, exceeding expectations of 28,000 [2][8] Group 2 - The report tracks global major asset performance, noting that CBOT soybean oil has the highest increase at +2.08%, while the Nikkei 225 has the largest decline at -4.07% [3][34] - In the equity market, the Hang Seng Index shows the largest gain at +1.29%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has the largest drop at -3.04% [3][37] - Sector performance indicates that the energy sector in the US has the highest increase at +1.49%, while the information technology sector has the largest decline at -4.43% [3][43] Group 3 - The report provides updates on global economic data, noting a rebound in the Eurozone industrial confidence index and an increase in the UK PMI [59][63] - The report also tracks important upcoming data releases, including the US October CPI and employment figures, which are expected to influence market expectations [68][71]