当全球AI产业进入爆发式增长周期，谁能掌握产业链最核心的产能命脉？答案早已清晰——台积电 （TSMC）。 作为格隆汇2026年"全球视野"十大核心资产之一，这家晶圆代工巨头以无可撼动的垄断地位，成为AI芯 片产能的"独家守门人"。它包揽了全球90%以上的AI芯片制造，从英伟达GPU到谷歌TPU，几乎所有主 流AI芯片都出自其晶圆厂。2025年历经短期回调后强势反弹，全年韧性十足，如今正以先进制程迭 代、CoWoS产能翻倍、连续涨价的多重利好，开启新一轮确定性增长。 01 为什么是台积电？ 多重硬核逻辑铸就全球核心资产 台积电能成为AI时代的"隐形王者"，并非单一优势驱动，而是多重核心逻辑的共振，每一项都构成难以 逾越的竞争壁垒。 1.行业分工重构：晶圆代工成为产业链核心话语权环节 半导体产业的发展，早已改写了传统竞争格局。1987年台积电成立后，开创了晶圆代工模式，推动行业 从垂直整合的IDM模式，转向"Fabless设计+Foundry代工+OSAT封测"的分工协作模式。这一变革让晶圆 代工厂逐渐成为产业链的关键枢纽。 一方面，Fabless模式无需大额晶圆厂投资，吸引了高通、英伟达等企业崛起；另一方面，部 ...

Group 1 - TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) has seen a stock increase of 5.58% over two days starting October 1, reaching a historical high, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's future [1] - TSMC's 2nm process technology is gaining attention, crucial for the PC industry, with AMD planning to use it in its next-generation EPYC Venice data center CPU and Intel in its Nova Lake series, due to Intel's own 18A process not achieving ideal yield rates [1] - TSMC maintains a leading market share of 71% in the foundry industry, driven by rapid advancements in 3nm technology, high utilization rates of 4/5nm processes in AI GPU production, and the expansion of CoWoS advanced packaging technology [1] Group 2 - The potential implementation of new semiconductor tariff policies by the U.S. government may pressure semiconductor brands, but could benefit companies like TSMC that have manufacturing facilities in the U.S., providing them with negotiation leverage and potential tax benefits [2] - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman's visit to TSMC highlights the importance of collaboration, focusing on details regarding the contract manufacturing of OpenAI's self-developed chips, indicating TSMC's significant role in future AI chip production [2] - TSMC's advantages in technological innovation, market share growth, and international collaboration suggest a promising outlook in the semiconductor industry, with investors encouraged to monitor TSMC's advancements in advanced processes and international projects for potential stock price support [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - TSMC demonstrates strong performance in Q2 2025 with revenue growth of 44.4% to $30.07 billion and earnings per share of $2.47, driven by robust demand for AI chips [3] - Despite the strong performance, TSMC maintains a cautious capital expenditure plan for 2025, projected between $38 billion and $42 billion, reflecting concerns over macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The company is actively addressing potential geopolitical risks by emphasizing its long-term investment plans in the U.S., including a $165 billion investment for six advanced wafer fabs and two advanced packaging plants over the next decade [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for AI chips is expected to remain strong, with TSMC raising its revenue growth forecast for 2025 from a mid-range of 20% to approximately 30%, indicating optimism in the AI chip market [3] - TSMC's advanced process technologies, particularly in 7nm and below, are crucial for meeting the growing needs of AI applications across various sectors, including data centers and edge computing [3][4] - The company faces competition from rivals like Samsung and Intel but is well-positioned to maintain its leadership in the AI chip market due to its technological strengths and customer base [4] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - TSMC's cautious approach to capital expenditure is a rational response to current geopolitical and economic uncertainties, allowing the company to reserve space for long-term stable development [4] - The ongoing development of advanced packaging technologies, such as CoWoS, positions TSMC to meet the high-density, high-bandwidth, and low-latency requirements of AI and high-performance computing [4] - TSMC's strong performance and strategic investments are expected to support the continued growth of the semiconductor industry, particularly in the AI segment, contributing to overall market optimism [3][4]

点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 摩根大通将其对台积电CoWoS先进封装技术在未来两年的消费预期分别下调了7%和3%，理由是来自亚马逊自研AI芯片 的需求减少，以及基于宏观经济的不确定性。摩根大通预测，受关税和全球经济放缓的影响，台积电管理层可能将2025 财年的收入增长指引从约25%下调至20%左右。 硬·AI 作者 | 董 静 此外，亚马逊Trainium芯片被外部客户采用的前景有限。摩根大通现在预期，未来两年，下一代Trainium 项目的生命周期单位仅增长5-10%，市场可能会对亚马逊的定制芯片（ASIC）项目持更为谨慎的态度。 尽管如此，摩根大通预测， 2025年台积电CoWoS的整体需求仍预计增长107%，2026年继续保持37%的 增长，这主要得益于英伟达的强劲需求、ASIC项目增加（尤其是博通和联发科）以及苹果WMCM芯片封 装业务的启动。 01 英伟达仍是CoWos最大客户 但增长预期趋于理性 报告预计，台积电的CoWoS产能将在2025年继续保持紧张，但到2026年可能会达到供需平衡。 英伟达继续是CoWoS-L需求的主要驱动力，大摩预计，该公司将获得足够的CoWoS分配，以在2025年生 产 ...