Group 1: Core Insights - TSMC demonstrates strong performance in Q2 2025 with revenue growth of 44.4% to $30.07 billion and earnings per share of $2.47, driven by robust demand for AI chips [3] - Despite the strong performance, TSMC maintains a cautious capital expenditure plan for 2025, projected between $38 billion and $42 billion, reflecting concerns over macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The company is actively addressing potential geopolitical risks by emphasizing its long-term investment plans in the U.S., including a $165 billion investment for six advanced wafer fabs and two advanced packaging plants over the next decade [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for AI chips is expected to remain strong, with TSMC raising its revenue growth forecast for 2025 from a mid-range of 20% to approximately 30%, indicating optimism in the AI chip market [3] - TSMC's advanced process technologies, particularly in 7nm and below, are crucial for meeting the growing needs of AI applications across various sectors, including data centers and edge computing [3][4] - The company faces competition from rivals like Samsung and Intel but is well-positioned to maintain its leadership in the AI chip market due to its technological strengths and customer base [4] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - TSMC's cautious approach to capital expenditure is a rational response to current geopolitical and economic uncertainties, allowing the company to reserve space for long-term stable development [4] - The ongoing development of advanced packaging technologies, such as CoWoS, positions TSMC to meet the high-density, high-bandwidth, and low-latency requirements of AI and high-performance computing [4] - TSMC's strong performance and strategic investments are expected to support the continued growth of the semiconductor industry, particularly in the AI segment, contributing to overall market optimism [3][4]

点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 摩根大通将其对台积电CoWoS先进封装技术在未来两年的消费预期分别下调了7%和3%，理由是来自亚马逊自研AI芯片 的需求减少，以及基于宏观经济的不确定性。摩根大通预测，受关税和全球经济放缓的影响，台积电管理层可能将2025 财年的收入增长指引从约25%下调至20%左右。 硬·AI 作者 | 董 静 此外，亚马逊Trainium芯片被外部客户采用的前景有限。摩根大通现在预期，未来两年，下一代Trainium 项目的生命周期单位仅增长5-10%，市场可能会对亚马逊的定制芯片（ASIC）项目持更为谨慎的态度。 尽管如此，摩根大通预测， 2025年台积电CoWoS的整体需求仍预计增长107%，2026年继续保持37%的 增长，这主要得益于英伟达的强劲需求、ASIC项目增加（尤其是博通和联发科）以及苹果WMCM芯片封 装业务的启动。 01 英伟达仍是CoWos最大客户 但增长预期趋于理性 报告预计，台积电的CoWoS产能将在2025年继续保持紧张，但到2026年可能会达到供需平衡。 英伟达继续是CoWoS-L需求的主要驱动力，大摩预计，该公司将获得足够的CoWoS分配，以在2025年生 产 ...