Goldman Sachs just sent a sobering warning to the Federal Reserve. After analyzing a "noisy" January CPI report, the firm’s economists, led by Jan Hatzius, officially reset their forecast for the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. The new target? A 3.05% year-over-year jump in core PCE. This isn't just a routine revision—it’s a brutal reality check for investors betting on a pivot. If Goldman is right, the "last mile" of the inflation fight is getting longer, and the window for interest rate cuts in the fir ...

Group 1 - The January inflation report showed a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.2% month-over-month, which was below the expected 0.3% rise, and an annual inflation rate of 2.4%, also under forecasts, leading to a market rebound and optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate flexibility [2][8] - Energy prices, particularly a decline in gasoline prices, contributed significantly to the lower-than-expected inflation figures, offsetting increases in shelter and food costs, which is crucial for preventing a re-acceleration of overall inflation [5][8] - The combination of moderating inflation and strong employment figures may allow the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, as indicated by market reactions to the inflation data [6][8] Group 2 - The market's swift reaction to the inflation data reversed earlier losses, suggesting that investors view the report as a sign that inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve's target without harming economic growth [8] - Upcoming inflation indicators, including producer prices, will be closely monitored to confirm that the disinflation trend remains intact, following the January CPI release [8]

专题：美国1月CPI年率创去年5月来新低 1 月美国商品与服务价格同比涨幅低于预期，为持续困扰美国的通胀问题开始缓解带来希望。 美国劳工统计局周五公布，1 月消费者价格指数（CPI） 同比上涨2.4%，较上月回落0.3 个百分点。这 一通胀率回落至 2025 年 4 月特朗普总统宣布对美国进口商品加征高额关祱后次月的水平。 剔除食品与能源的核心 CPI同比上涨2.5%。道琼斯调查的经济学家此前对两项数据的预期均为2.5%。 环比方面，经季节性调整后，整体 CPI 上涨0.2%，核心 CPI 上涨0.3%，市场此前预期均为0.3%。 尽管住房成本是推动 CPI 上涨的主要因素，但当月仅上涨0.2%，带动同比涨幅回落至3%。 其他方面，食品价格上涨0.2%，六大食品类别中五类出现上涨。能源价格下降1.5%；汽车价格表现平 稳，新车仅涨0.1%，二手车与卡车价格下跌1.8%。 数据公布后，美股期货波动不大，美国国债收益率走低。 这一低于预期的数据提振了期货市场对美联储降息的预期。据芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）的美联 储观察工具显示，交易员将 6 月降息的概率上调至约 83%。 该报告进一步加剧了经济形势的 ...

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a 2.5% gain year-over-year, returning to levels seen in May 2025 [2][4] - The headline CPI was at 2.7% in December and has been on a downward trend since peaking above 3% in September 2025, with core CPI at 2.6% in December [3][4] - A lower inflation reading could give the Federal Reserve more confidence to lower benchmark borrowing rates without risking inflation resurgence [4][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs anticipates a contribution of 0.07 percentage points to core inflation from tariffs, with potential upward pressure on various sectors [7] - The strong jobs report showed nonfarm payroll gains of 130,000 for January and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which initially caused market concerns about the Fed's rate cuts [8] - A consensus or below reading on inflation could alleviate concerns about the labor market's impact on Fed policy [8]

Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.8% and core CPI at 2.6%. Note: PCE data is through November 2025 and CPI data is through December 2025. The Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge The Fed is on record as using PCE dat ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows signs of cooling inflation and resilient consumer activity, with consumer price growth at a six-month low in December and retail sales rebounding [1] - Investor sentiment is high, indicated by record-high margin debt levels, suggesting increased market risk-taking [1] Inflation Dynamics - Consumer inflation decreased for the second consecutive month in December, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.68%, down from 2.74% in November, and a monthly increase of 0.3% [2] - Core inflation slightly increased from 2.63% in November to 2.64% in December, with a monthly rise of 0.2% [2] - Conversely, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose unexpectedly to 2.95% in November, up from 2.80% in October, indicating potential future consumer inflation [3] Consumer Spending - Retail sales increased by 0.6% in November, surpassing the 0.5% forecast, marking a recovery from a revised decline of -0.1% in October [4] - Core sales, excluding autos, rose by 0.5%, exceeding the projected 0.4% growth, although control purchases rose only 0.3%, below the 0.4% forecast [5] Margin Debt Insights - Margin debt reached a record high of $1.23 trillion in December, marking an eighth consecutive monthly increase and a more than 30% surge over the past year [6][7] - High margin debt levels indicate strong investor confidence but also suggest increased market volatility and risk-taking behavior [7] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 reached a record high before ending the week with a 0.4% loss, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell by 0.3% [8] - The S&P Equal Weight Index increased by 0.7% from the previous week [8] Treasury Yields and Fed Outlook - The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.24%, and the 2-year note at 3.59%, with a 95% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the macroeconomic factors influencing advisors and investors in 2026, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's independence and inflation concerns [2][3]. Federal Reserve Developments - The Department of Justice has subpoenaed the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about its independence, which could impact market dynamics [3][4]. - Market reactions have shown initial pullbacks following the news, with expectations that advisors and traders will adopt a wait-and-see approach until more clarity emerges [5]. - There is speculation about whether Jerome Powell will remain as a governor until 2028, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding leadership at the Fed [6]. Inflation Concerns - There are doubts regarding the accuracy of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to outdated methods used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may misrepresent the true inflation landscape [7][8]. - Advisors and investors are currently underexposed to commodities, particularly gold, which presents opportunities for hedging against inflation and achieving long-term gains [9]. Investment Opportunities - The WisdomTree Japan Opportunities Fund (OPPJ) is highlighted as a compelling investment choice for 2026, as Japan's economy shows signs of improvement due to favorable fiscal policies and moderate inflation [10][11]. - OPPJ targets Japanese companies with strong growth potential, including those held by Berkshire Hathaway and those with high shareholder yields, providing a diversified investment approach [12]. - The fund is positioned as a strategic option for navigating the uncertainties of the U.S. markets in 2026, encouraging advisors to remain adaptable [13].

Economic Indicators - The November Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-over-month increase of +0.2%, up from a revised +0.1% in October, but below the consensus estimate of +0.3% [2] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged at 0.0% for November, down from a revised +0.3% in October [3] - Year-over-year PPI increased to +3.0% from a revised +2.8%, marking the first time it has reached a "3-handle" since September [4] - The core PPI year-over-year also reached +3.0%, 10 basis points higher than the unchanged +2.9% from October [4] - Excluding food, energy, and trade, the year-over-year PPI rose to +3.5%, the highest since March of the previous year [4][5] Retail Sales - U.S. Retail Sales for November reported a headline increase of +0.6%, surpassing the estimated +0.4% and a significant rise from the revised -0.1% in the prior month [6] - Excluding autos, Retail Sales still showed a strong increase of +0.5%, more than double the revised +0.2% from October [6] - Core Retail Sales, excluding autos and gasoline, were +0.4% for the month, down from +0.6% in the previous report, indicating continued consumer spending [7] Bank Earnings - Major banks reported Q4 earnings, with Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo all exceeding bottom-line estimates: Citigroup at +$1.81 per share, Bank of America at $0.98, and Wells Fargo at $1.76 [8] - Citigroup benefited from reduced provisions for troubled loans, while Wells Fargo experienced a revenue miss due to higher-than-expected severance costs [9] - Bank of America reported an increase in Net Interest Income for the quarter, with both BofA and Citi having only missed bottom-line estimates once in the past five years [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. consumer prices are expected to accelerate in December due to the reversal of factors that had previously suppressed inflation during the government shutdown in November [1] - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.3%, driven by increases in food and energy prices, particularly electricity costs related to data centers [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to increase by 0.3% in December, with a year-over-year growth of 2.7%, slightly up from 2.6% in November [1] Group 2 - The government shutdown, lasting 43 days, disrupted the collection of price data for October, leading to the use of estimation methods for the November CPI report, particularly affecting rental data [2] - Despite the successful collection of price data in November, the data was skewed due to holiday discount promotions, which may have distorted the rental and goods price indicators [2] - Economists expect that the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is gradually being reflected in inflation, with consumer prices expected to rise significantly in the coming months [3] Group 3 - The current high inflation rate is predicted to weaken political support for President Trump, potentially becoming a significant political issue by 2026 as he and his party strive to maintain control of Congress [4] - Various goods prices, including new cars, furniture, and clothing, are expected to see accelerated increases, while the rental market may continue to show weakness [4] - The relationship between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump has become strained, leading economists to believe that interest rates will not be lowered before Powell's term ends in May [4][5]

Inflation Data Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% in November, lower than Wall Street's expectation of 3.1% [2] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was reported at 2.6%, compared to estimates of 3% [2] - Over the two-month period since September, both headline and core CPI increased by only 0.2% [3] Impact of Government Shutdown - The recent inflation data may not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's outlook due to data collection disruptions caused by the government shutdown [1][4] - The shutdown halted much of the price data collection by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leading to skepticism about the reliability of the current inflation figures [2][4] Economic Perspectives - Economists view the latest inflation reading as progress towards the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, despite still being above the target [5] - The Fed is in a "wait-and-see" mode, with the latest data potentially opening the door for additional rate cuts [6] Sector-Specific Insights - A decline in rents contributed to the overall decrease in inflation, while core goods prices rose by 1.4% due to tariffs [7] - Services inflation, excluding energy prices, increased by 3%, down from 3.5% since September, indicating a trend that the Fed is closely monitoring [7] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran supports the view that lower rents can lead to reduced inflation, which may mitigate the impact of tariffs [8]