By Davide Barbuscia and Anirban Sen NEW YORK (Reuters) -With the U.S. government shutdown threatening to freeze October’s inflation report, the Treasury is expected to deploy a workaround to compute the index underpinning the $2.1 trillion market for inflation-protected bonds for the first time since their 1997 launch, a move that may cause pricing quirks as traders adjust their calculations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has said it has halted all data collection and publishing during the shutdown, apa ...

"It's quite positive (the data) and going forward, it certainly clears the way for the Fed to cut rates next week as they were going to anyway and it certainly leads to a higher expectation of at least two more rate cuts (By March). With the government shutdown. we don't have a lot of other data other than private data and so this is a good scenario for the Fed if inflation is maintaining at this level and not spiking that they can focus more on the employment."“As long as you're in that mode where you're t ...

Get 100% ad-free experience CPI Preview: Inflation Data Looms Amid Shutdown With Fed Decision on the Horizon ByInvesting.com AuthorJesse Cohen Market Overview Published 10/24/2025, 04:22 AM CPI Preview: Inflation Data Looms Amid Shutdown With Fed Decision on the Horizon View all comments (0)0 Investing.com Articles(8015)|My Homepage Follow US500 0.58% As markets await the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set for release Friday at 8:30 AM ET, investors and policymakers face a particularly complex ...

The crypto market, starved of fresh economic data due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, will finally get a key data point with the release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. The inflation figure could trigger larger price swings in ether (ETH) than in bitcoin (BTC), a store-of-value asset. Overall, however, the expected market volatility is nothing out of the ordinary. Inflation ticked higher in September The consumer price index for September, due for release at 12:30 UTC, is ...

A shopper looks at produce at a grocery store in West Milton, Ohio, US, on Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025. Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe Friday release of September's consumer price index report is pretty much the only game in town this month for a Wall Street that is hungry for data, raising the chances for it to be a market-moving event.While the actual numbers are expecting to land about where they've been in recent months, the dearth of official economic reports, thanks to the government shutdown, ...

Core Points - The Labor Department is preparing for a potential halt in economic data releases due to a possible partial government shutdown, which could significantly impact economic insights ahead of the Federal Reserve's October meeting [1][10] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to suspend all operations, which includes halting the release of critical economic reports [2][4] - The upcoming release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is particularly crucial, as they will provide key information on job growth and inflation before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [5][7] Group 1 - The Labor Department's contingency plan indicates that economic data scheduled for release during a government shutdown will not be published, affecting various reports related to import/export prices and wages [4][10] - The BLS typically publishes around a dozen reports each month, and the shutdown would disrupt all active data collection activities for BLS surveys, potentially delaying future releases [4][10] - The government shutdown is set to occur if Congress does not approve a funding extension, with a deadline of 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday [8] Group 2 - The BLS's website will be inactive during the shutdown, meaning no updates or technical fixes will be available, further complicating access to economic data [11] - The revision of 911,000 jobs, the largest on record, has drawn criticism from the White House, which is calling for a Federal Reserve rate cut in response to the economic situation [2]

Economic Overview - Stagflation is characterized by weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, with current conditions indicating a lowercase stagflation since the pandemic [1][2] - Economic growth is measured by GDP, which reflects domestic production, while GNP tracks earnings of Americans globally [2][3] Inflation Metrics - Key inflation indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), with the latter being favored by the Federal Reserve for its broader scope [3][4] - Distinction between headline inflation, which includes food and energy, and core inflation, which excludes these volatile components, is crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] Employment Indicators - The unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes are monitored closely, along with weekly unemployment claims, to gauge labor market health [5] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s stagflation, unemployment exceeded 7-8% with double-digit inflation and contracting GDP [6] Current Economic Conditions - Presently, unemployment is modest, PCE is in the high twos, and GDP remains strong, indicating that the economy is not in a severe stagflation scenario like the 1970s [7][8] - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with gold up over 40% and silver nearing 60% this year, reflecting a response to elevated inflation and current interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] Monitoring Indicators - Key indicators to watch include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with a focus on services inflation, shelter costs, and healthcare expenses [9] - Fluctuations in oil prices or a weaker dollar could quickly impact headline inflation, necessitating close monitoring of real incomes versus consumer demand [10] Conclusion - There is a potential risk of lowercase stagflation, but it is unlikely to escalate to the levels seen in the 1970s or 80s based on current observations [11]

Core Insights - Consumer inflation increased in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July, and a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.3% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, remained steady at a 3.1% increase over the past 12 months [2] - Market expectations indicate a strong belief that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by at least a quarter point in the upcoming meeting, driven by concerns over labor market weakness rather than inflation [3][4]

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are expected to show higher inflation rates, with CPI projected at +2.9% and PPI at +3.3% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve may still consider rate cuts despite rising inflation, as the labor market's deterioration poses a greater risk than short-term inflation increases [3][4] - The rising supply of government debt and persistent inflation are straining global bond demand, indicating potential challenges for fiscal policies [4] Group 2 - Analysts predict a brief market drop following the release of the CPI and PPI reports, which could lead to institutions offloading assets onto retail investors [1] - Job openings have decreased to 7.18 million, the lowest since 2021, which may influence the Fed's decision-making regarding rate cuts [3] - Gold prices have surged to new all-time highs, while silver has slipped below $41 per ounce, indicating volatility in precious metals markets [5]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a month-over-month decrease of -0.1%, indicating a significant cooling of inflation compared to expectations of +0.3% [1][2] - Year-over-year PPI decreased to +2.6% from a revised +3.1%, while core PPI also fell to +2.8% from +3.4%, reflecting a notable decline in inflationary pressures [3] PPI Details - The revision for the previous month’s PPI was adjusted down from +0.9% to +0.7%, marking the highest level in three years but suggesting a halt in inflation escalation [2] - The metric excluding food, energy, and trade saw a month-over-month increase of +0.3%, while the year-over-year figure for the same metric rose by 10 basis points to +2.8% [4] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures showed a positive reaction, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising by +32 and +125 points respectively, influenced partly by Oracle's strong quarterly results [5] Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet next week, with expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut, possibly by 50 basis points instead of the previously anticipated 25 basis points [6][7] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is crucial as it will indicate how much of the increased costs have been passed to consumers, with the CPI Inflation Rate remaining steady at +2.7% for the past two months [7]