一个机器人摔倒了，却让所有人更相信它是真的。 2026年1月31日，深圳湾万象城，小鹏人形机器人"IRON"在首次线下公开行走演示时，突然失去平衡，向前重重摔倒在地。随后，被工 作人员抬离现场。这一幕因其戏剧性，被戏称为"大型社死现场"。 就在四个月前的小鹏科技日上，IRON以一场姿态优雅、步态流畅的"猫步"首秀惊艳众人，其逼真程度甚至引发了"里面是不是藏了真 人"的广泛质疑。 面对质疑，小鹏CEO何小鹏当时做出了一个硬核举动：在发布会现场当场剪开IRON小腿的覆盖层，露出内部机械结构，并让它在"解 剖"状态下再次行走。小鹏机器人负责人米良川坦言，机器人的生成式运动存在不确定性，无法精准控制每一步细节。 因此，当IRON四个月后当众摔倒时，部分舆论反而觉得这证明了它的"货真价实"。正如小鹏副总裁事后所说："这一摔也没人怀疑是真 人扮演的了。" 事件发生后，小鹏官方的回应从容而富有策略。 何小鹏在社交媒体上将摔倒比作"孩子学步"："跌倒后会站稳，下一步就是开始奔跑。"巧妙地将一次事故转化为技术演进必经曲折的叙 事。副总裁则透露，IRON当天完成了多次行走，摔倒仅是其中一次，并表示网络嘲讽已转化为研发团队的激励。 ...

日前，小鹏汽车人形机器人IRON在深圳湾万象城的公开行走演示中意外摔倒的视频，引发全网关注与 热议。 事实上，这并非IRON首次引发社会关注。 2月1日，小鹏汽车董事长、CEO何小鹏回应争议："（这一摔）让我想起所有孩子学步的样子，跌倒后 会站稳，下一步就是开始奔跑，持续奔跑。" 据小鹏汽车副总裁@托马斯电火车 披露，1月31日，IRON在深圳湾万象城向市民进行真实行走展示。 网传视频显示，IRON完成一段流畅的"猫步"后，在与观众互动站定期间突然向侧方倾倒。"她走了很多 次，其中一次她摔倒了。"@托马斯电火车补充说明，同时发布了更多现场视频佐证其稳定演示的表 现。 值得一提的是，这次"插曲"也意外打破了此前的相关争议。"这一摔也没人怀疑是真人扮演的了"，@托 马斯电火车透露，已将部分嘲笑的声音转达给研发团队，反而成为了团队的激励。 2025年11月，小鹏汽车科技日期间，IRON因"猫步"姿态过于拟人化，曾被公众质疑"由真人扮演"。为 回应争议，何小鹏两度公开自证，甚至在发布会现场剪开IRON的小腿"皮肤"与"肌肉"，让其在机械"骨 骼"完全暴露的状态下完成"猫步"行走，用硬核展示回应外界疑虑。 当场"剪腿" ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is shifting its focus towards humanoid robots, with CEO Elon Musk stating that the production of Model S and Model X will be phased out to prioritize the development of the Optimus robot, which Musk believes will underpin 80% of Tesla's future market value [2][3]. Group 1: Tesla's Strategic Shift - Tesla plans to cease production of Model S and Model X, transitioning the Fremont factory to produce Optimus robots [3]. - The introduction of humanoid robots is seen as a critical component of Tesla's new mission, which aims to create a "prosperous and extraordinary world" [2]. - Musk acknowledges that Tesla's main competition in the humanoid robot sector will come from Chinese companies, which are rapidly advancing in AI and robotics [3]. Group 2: Chinese Automakers' Robotics Initiatives - Chinese automakers are actively investing in humanoid robotics, with companies like Li Auto and BYD announcing plans to develop their own humanoid robots [5][6]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with various Chinese companies, including Chery and Xpeng, setting timelines for humanoid robot production by 2026 and 2028 [12][13]. - The overlap in technology between electric vehicles and humanoid robots is significant, with around 70% of automotive technology being applicable to robotics [8]. Group 3: Market Potential and Investment Outlook - The global market for humanoid robots is projected to reach $25 trillion by 2050, indicating a massive growth opportunity compared to the automotive sector [9]. - The high degree of technological overlap allows automakers to pivot towards robotics without substantial additional investment, making it a low-cost, high-reward opportunity [9]. - Morgan Stanley reports that China holds a dominant position in the humanoid robot supply chain, accounting for 63% of the market, which could drive down manufacturing costs [14]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - The competition between Tesla and Chinese automakers in the humanoid robot space is expected to intensify by 2027, with both sides having distinct advantages [12][14]. - Tesla's strength lies in its advanced AI algorithms and extensive real-world data, while Chinese companies have demonstrated rapid iteration and cost control capabilities [14]. - Talent acquisition is crucial for success in the humanoid robot sector, with both Tesla and Chinese firms vying for top talent amidst a competitive automotive landscape [17].

TrendForce集邦咨询指出，要跨越续航五至八小时的门槛，可采取"换电策略"，如Agility Robotics(敏捷机器人)的Digit、Apptronik的Apollo通过热插拔技 术，换电池时无须重启，以实现理论上的24小时不间断工作。另一方式是通过高能量密度电池技术提升电池容量，如Xpeng(小鹏) IRON、GAC GoMate、 Engineai T800等机器人选择搭载固态电池，续航大幅提升至四小时以上。 目前人形机器人电池产品的开发，尚面临两大挑战：第一，由于关节设计、构型选择、AI边缘算力等机器人的核心技术尚在快速迭代，电池的定制化开 发面临较大不确定性，如电池的安装空间、功耗需求皆会受机器人不同的技术构型影响。第二，由于人形机器人尚在商用化初期，产业的首要目标是寻找 可大规模商用化的场景，续航力改善属次要任务，因此，尚无法刺激相关电池技术达成关键突破。 尽管如此，人形机器人对高能量密度、高倍率放电、高安全型电池的需求，正好可作为固态电池的"试验场"，以发挥其能量密度优势。随着固态电池技术 突破与成本下降，将有助人形机器人打破动力瓶颈。 TrendForce集邦咨询预计，2026年全球人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the migration of talent from the intelligent driving sector to the robotics industry, highlighting the emergence of new startups and the potential for innovation in the field of embodied intelligence [2][9]. Group 1: Talent Migration - A significant number of industry leaders from intelligent driving are transitioning to the robotics sector, with over 30 notable figures making this shift [8]. - Startups like Zhihui Square, founded by Guo Yandong, have quickly gained traction, raising substantial funding and achieving unicorn status within a short period [3]. - Other notable startups include Zhijian Power, founded by former Li Auto executives, and Tashizhi Hang, co-founded by Huawei alumni, both of which have secured significant investments [4][6]. Group 2: Investment Landscape - The investment community is optimistic about teams with intelligent driving backgrounds, as they possess experience in scaling products and managing resources effectively [9]. - The robotics industry is witnessing a "talent war," with headhunters offering salary increases of around 50% for candidates with intelligent driving experience [10]. Group 3: Technological Synergies - Companies like Tesla and Xiaopeng are leveraging their existing automotive technologies to develop robots, indicating a convergence of intelligent vehicles and humanoid robots [12][13]. - The technology used in electric vehicles, such as high-density motors and battery management systems, is being adapted for robotic applications, enhancing their capabilities [17]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the technological overlap, the robotics sector faces unique challenges, particularly in achieving the dexterity and interaction capabilities required for humanoid robots [18]. - The commercial viability of robots remains uncertain, with many companies still exploring sustainable business models [20][21]. - The influx of companies into the robotics space may lead to market saturation and potential issues with quality and trust in robotic technologies [29][30].

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant migration of talent from the smart driving sector to the robotics industry, highlighting the emergence of several startups led by former leaders in smart driving technology [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Developments - Zhihui Square, a startup founded by Guo Yandong, has completed seven rounds of financing within eight months, raising several billion yuan and achieving a valuation of over $1 billion, making it a unicorn [1]. - Guo Yandong, previously a chief scientist at Xiaopeng Motors, emphasizes the importance of integrating hardware and software in robotics, ensuring rapid deployment in real-world scenarios [1]. - Other notable startups include Zhijian Power, founded by former leaders from Li Auto, which secured $50 million in angel funding [2], and Tashizhi Hang, co-founded by Chen Yilun and Ding Wenchao, which set a record for angel round financing in the embodied intelligence sector with $120 million and $122 million in two rounds [4]. Group 2: Talent Migration - Over 30 industry leaders have transitioned from the smart driving sector to robotics, including figures like Gao Jiyang and Zhang Li, who have founded companies focusing on humanoid robots and embodied models [5][6]. - The capital market is favoring talent with smart driving backgrounds, as they possess experience in scaling product deployment and managing substantial resources, which is seen as a competitive advantage in the robotics field [6]. Group 3: Technological Integration - Companies like Tesla and Xiaopeng are leveraging their existing technology from smart vehicles to develop robots, with Xiaopeng's new IRON model integrating AI chips and models previously used in their cars [7][8][11]. - The shared technology between smart vehicles and humanoid robots includes algorithms, hardware, and supply chain resources, indicating a convergence of these two sectors [8][12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The robotics industry is witnessing a surge in interest from automotive companies, with many entering the market through self-development, investment, or partnerships [20]. - Despite the excitement, there are concerns about the potential for market chaos due to oversaturation, false advertising, and low-level competition as numerous companies rush into the robotics space [20][21].

Group 1 - The company achieved a record high in total deliveries and gross margin in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, and a significant reduction in net loss to 380 million yuan. Total delivery volume reached 116,007 units, a year-on-year increase of 149.3%, and the gross margin exceeded 20% for the first time, reaching 20.1% [1] - The company has launched a "dual power" strategy to address user range anxiety, introducing the first range-extended model, the X9 EREV, which features a 63.3 kWh battery and a conversion rate exceeding 3.6 kWh/L, achieving a pure electric range of 452 km. Additional range-extended versions of key models such as G6, G7, and P7i are expected to be launched in Q1 2026, along with four new models including two SUVs on the MONA platform [1] - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with the launch of range-extended and new models, leading to a continuous increase in vehicle sales [1] Group 2 - The company is transitioning to a "physical AI" company, showcasing its commitment and specific path at the 2025 Technology Day. The core technology, VLA 2.0, is a second-generation visual-language-action model that enhances reasoning efficiency by 12 times and improves average takeover mileage in complex scenarios by 13 times. This model is planned for full deployment on Ultra models in Q1 2026 and is expected to extend to robotics and other embodied intelligence fields [2] - The company announced the launch of China's first fully self-developed front-mounted mass-produced Robotaxi, with plans to introduce three models in 2026 and begin trial operations in H2 2026. Despite a gap in operational experience compared to industry leaders, the innovative "fully shared + private" business model may allow the company to secure a position in the billion-level mobility market [2] - The humanoid robot IRON is set to achieve mass production by the end of 2026, with initial trials in commercial scenarios such as guiding and shopping. The AI technology developed for the humanoid robot will also benefit the autonomous driving sector, creating a positive feedback loop [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 75.8 billion, 132.1 billion, and 166.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 85.4%, 74.3%, and 25.9%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -1.55 billion, 2 billion, and 6.13 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The rise of humanoid robots has become a significant trend in the tech industry, with automotive companies increasingly investing in humanoid robot development as a new growth avenue amidst slowing market growth in traditional automotive sectors [2][20][26] - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is positioned as a key product for the company's future, with expectations that it will contribute significantly to Tesla's overall value [3][4][20] - Chinese automakers, including Xpeng and BYD, are also making strides in humanoid robotics, with Xpeng's IRON robot showcasing advanced capabilities and aiming for mass production by the end of 2026 [8][10][26] Industry Trends - The automotive sector is witnessing a collective push towards humanoid robotics, with nearly all major car manufacturers increasing their involvement in this field [2][7] - Companies are adopting various strategies, including full-stack self-research and partnerships with established robotics firms, to accelerate their entry into the humanoid robot market [10][11] - The market is expected to see a significant increase in humanoid robot deployment, with projections suggesting a market size of $5 trillion by 2050 [27] Technological Challenges - The development of humanoid robots faces significant technical hurdles, particularly in achieving stability and functionality in real-world environments [12][13][15] - Key challenges include the complexity of creating dexterous hands, stable locomotion, and advanced AI capabilities for real-time decision-making [14][16][17] - Current production methods are still largely manual, limiting the scalability of humanoid robot manufacturing [18] Market Dynamics - The entry of automotive companies into humanoid robotics is seen as a strategic move to diversify and mitigate risks associated with traditional automotive business cycles [20][21] - The overlap in technology and components between electric vehicles and humanoid robots provides automotive companies with a competitive advantage in this new market [21][22] - The industry is at a critical juncture, with the potential for significant breakthroughs or the risk of stagnation due to unresolved challenges [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the Chinese automotive market in 2025, highlighting a multi-faceted battle involving new products, marketing, public opinion, and values. It identifies four prominent automotive leaders who have made significant strides in this challenging environment [1][3]. Group 1: Key Figures in the Automotive Industry - **Zhu Jiangming of Leap Motor**: Successfully transitioned from proving the company's survival to achieving significant sales, with 2025 sales expected to approach 600,000 units, including 60,000 from overseas. The company is projected to achieve profitability for the first time, driven by a self-research technology strategy and a cost-effective pricing model [6][8]. - **Zhu Huarong of Changan**: Led the establishment of Changan Automobile as a state-owned enterprise, achieving significant milestones such as the production of the 30 millionth Chinese brand vehicle. The company aims for 5 million units in sales by 2030, with over 60% from new energy vehicles [10][12]. - **Yin Tongyue of Chery**: Celebrated the successful IPO of Chery, raising HKD 9.14 billion, and achieving a market value exceeding HKD 200 billion. Chery's global sales surpassed 1 million units, with a focus on local production in markets like Spain [15][17]. - **He Xiaopeng of Xpeng Motors**: Approaching profitability with a projected delivery of 350,000 units in 2025, marking a 156% year-on-year increase. The company is also expanding into robotics and flying cars, with significant advancements in AI technology [20][22]. Group 2: Challenges and Future Goals - **Leap Motor's Challenges**: Despite its success, Leap Motor faces the challenge of enhancing brand value to move into higher price segments. Zhu Jiangming aims for 1 million units in sales by 2026 and plans to introduce new products across a broader price range [7][8]. - **Changan's Strategic Focus**: Zhu Huarong must balance ambitious strategic goals with operational effectiveness, particularly in integrating resources within the large enterprise structure to navigate competitive pressures [12]. - **Chery's High-End Market Struggles**: Chery's efforts to penetrate the high-end market face challenges, particularly with its collaboration with Huawei and the Starway brand, which has yet to establish a strong domestic presence [17]. - **Xpeng's Technological Ambitions**: He Xiaopeng's focus on expanding into robotics and flying vehicles presents both opportunities and risks, as the company navigates the complexities of its technological roadmap and market expectations [22].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a nine-day winning streak, while the Robot ETF Fund (159213) surged, indicating strong capital inflow into the robotics sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Robot ETF Fund (159213) saw a significant inflow of over 25 million yuan in a single day and a total of over 44 million yuan in the last two days [1]. - The index components of the Robot ETF Fund showed mixed performance, with stocks like Ruishun Technology and Boke Co. hitting the daily limit, while others like Dahua Technology and Dazhong Laser experienced declines [3]. Group 2: Key Developments - Ruishun Intelligent successfully won a project worth 330.8 million yuan for producing core components for cotton-picking machines [4]. - The establishment of the Human Robot and Embodied Intelligence Standardization Technical Committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on December 26 aims to develop industry standards for humanoid robots and related technologies [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The robotics sector has seen significant growth this year, with companies focusing on high-utility hardware components like linear/rotary actuators and sensors, indicating a strong beta in the market [6]. - The valuation of robotics is shifting from conceptual narratives to substantial investments, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and production scaling [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The humanoid robot industry is expected to enter a mass production phase by 2026, with major companies like Tesla and Xiaopeng Motors planning to ramp up production significantly [8]. - The global landscape for humanoid robots is becoming increasingly competitive, with both international giants and local innovators accelerating their industrialization efforts [8].