| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1737.8 | 1.03% | 54.3 | 612 | | 1883 | -456 | | | EC2604 | | 1237.9 | 4.50% | 554.2 | 29296 | | 34229 | 423 | | | EC2606 | | 1533.7 | 1.36% | 258.4 | 3147 | | 13458 | 860 | | | EC2608 | | 1597.9 | -0.62% | 194.2 | 353 | | 1479 | 29 | | | EC2610 | | 1128.6 | -0.12% | 663.5 | 1355 | | 7677 | -207 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | 周环比 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current EC2602 contract is supported by pre - holiday shipments, while the BC2604 contract declines due to negotiation expectations. The core drivers are the resumption of Red Sea routes led by Maersk, combined with a capacity growth rate exceeding demand. The long - term pressure of oversupply remains unchanged, and short - term exports of photovoltaic and battery products provide marginal support. In the short term, the market is volatile, and the far - month contracts are suppressed by the resumption expectations. It's necessary to closely monitor the route recovery rhythm and shipping company pricing to seize interval opportunities [9]. - The strategy is to focus on the opportunity of short - allocating off - season contracts [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - The present value of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) comprehensive index is 1574, with a previous value of 1647 and a decline of 4.45%. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has a present value of 1210, a previous value not clearly given in a comparable way, and an increase of 1.25%. For specific routes, SCFI - US West has a present value of 2194, down 1.08% from the previous value of 2218; SCFIS - US West is 1305, down 1.36% from 1323; SCFI - US East is 3163, up 1.12% from 3128; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1676, down 2.50% from 1719; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1954, down 0.10% from 1956; and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2983, down 7.70% from 3232 [6]. 3.2 EC Spot Price - OCEAN Alliance: CMA CGM quotes 3693/FEU with relatively firm prices. COSCO Shipping quotes 3325/FEU. Evergreen Marine quotes 3030 - 3130/FEU, about 400 lower than before. Orient Overseas quotes 2880/FEU, 150 lower than before. The overall FAK central range is about 32700 - 3300/FEU. - GEMINI Alliance: Maersk's Week 4 (1.20 - 1.26) price is 1695/2730 (20'/40'), dropping to 1510/2420 in Week 5, and non - European base rates are as low as 2400/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd quotes 1585/2535 (20'/40'), with the February quote remaining unchanged. The overall FAK central range is about 2400 - 2700/FEU. - PREMIER Alliance + MSC: MSC quotes 1580/2640 (20'/40'). Ocean Network Express (ONE) quotes 1680/2635 (20'/40'), with the same price in February. Yang Ming Marine Transport quotes about 2600/FEU with relatively stable prices. HMM quotes 1433/2436 (20'/40') with a relatively low price. The overall FAK central range is about 2400 - 2650/FEU [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump announced that starting from February 1st, he will impose a 10% tariff on Denmark, the UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, and Norway due to disputes over Greenland with relevant countries, and the tariff will be raised to 25% on June 1st. - Trump's advisors are impatient with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's objections and continue to advance the second stage of the "Gaza Peace Plan". Netanyahu issued a sharply worded statement opposing the list of members of the Gaza "Implementation Committee" released by the White House on Friday. - The new Sokhna container terminal in Egypt is put into operation, with Hutchison Ports, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping as the core shareholders. The support from the Ocean Alliance is expected to increase, and RSCT No.1 has become the most important and newly - launched modern large - scale container terminal on the Red Sea side of Egypt [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports. The reports mainly provide various data on different financial products such as stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals, and container shipping. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF期现价差**: The latest value is -29.70, down -11.10 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 27.80% and an all - time historical quantile of 13.60% [1]. - **IH期现价差**: The latest value is -4.77, down -5.02 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 31.10% and an all - time historical quantile of 34.70% [1]. - **IC期现价差**: The latest value is -116.23, down -22.22 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 13.50% and an all - time historical quantile of 2.00% [1]. - **IM期现价差**: The latest value is -151.33, down -11.21 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 50.00% and an all - time historical quantile of 9.80% [1]. - **跨品种比值**: For example, the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 300 is 1.5612, down -0.0147 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 84.00% and an all - time historical quantile of 64.90% [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: For example, the IRR of a certain bond is 1.7186, down -0.0401 from the previous day, with a historical percentile since listing of 33.40% [4]. - **跨期价差**: For TS, the spread between the current quarter and the next quarter is 0.0400, up 0.0020 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 31.40% [4]. - **跨品种价差**: For example, the spread between TS and TF is -3.5320, up 0.0020 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 8.30% [4]. Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2512 contract closed at 915.58 yuan/gram on November 4, down -7.00 yuan or -0.76% from November 3. The AG2512 contract closed at 11238 yuan/kilogram, down -217 yuan or -1.89% [5]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 3941.30 dollars/ounce on November 4, down -72.40 dollars or -1.80% from November 3. The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 46.90 dollars, down -1.01 dollars or -2.12% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3931.95 dollars/ounce on November 4, down -69.12 dollars or -1.73% from November 3. London silver was at 47.12 dollars/ounce, down -0.95 dollars or -1.97% [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 is 0.10, up 2.48 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 93.90% [5]. - **Ratios**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 84.05, up 0.27 or 0.32% from the previous day [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.10%, down -0.03% from the previous day. The US dollar index is 100.21, up 0.33 or 0.33% [5]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 87816, unchanged from the previous day. The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory is 665610 kilograms, up 6759 kilograms or 1.03% [5]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate reference is 2457 dollars/FEU on November 4, up 199 dollars or 8.81% from November 3 [7]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 1208.71 on November 3, down -104.0 or -7.92% from October 27. The SCFIS (US West route) is 1267.15, up 159.8 or 14.43% [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract is 1593.7 on November 4, up 1.5 or 0.09% from November 3. The basis of the main contract is -276.3, down -1.5 or 0.55% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3335.89 million TEU on November 4, unchanged from November 3. The Shanghai port on - time rate in September is 42.77%, up 24.46 percentage points or 133.59% from August [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and shipping industry futures on June 24, 2025. They cover aspects such as price differences, basis, yields, exchange rates, and fundamental data, providing investors with a multi - dimensional view of market conditions [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the price differences of various contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures price differences, inter - period price differences, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures price difference is - 60.50, with a change of 12.54 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: It also shows the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of these price differences, which can help investors understand the relative position of current price differences in history [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: The basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented. For instance, the TS basis is 1.8674, with a change of - 0.0681 compared to the previous day, and the IRR percentile is 43.20% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Price Differences**: Inter - period price differences and cross - variety price differences are also provided, such as the TS inter - period price difference between the next quarter and the current quarter is - 0.2380 [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver are reported. For example, the AU2508 contract closed at 781.30 yuan/gram on June 23, with a gain of 0.35% [5]. - **Yields and Exchange Rates**: The yields of US Treasury bonds and exchange rates such as the US dollar index and offshore RMB exchange rate are also included, which can affect the prices of precious metals [5]. Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are provided, along with the changes in shipping rates. For example, the MAERSK shipping rate decreased by 3.31% from June 23 to June 24 [8]. - **Index and Futures Prices**: The settlement price indices of shipping routes and the prices of shipping futures contracts are reported, as well as the basis of the main contract [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container运力 supply, port - related indicators, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators are presented, which can help analyze the fundamentals of the shipping industry [9]. Data and Information - **Overseas Data**: Economic indicators such as the US first - quarter current account and June consumer confidence index are provided [11]. - **Domestic Data**: Economic indicators and events related to black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and special commodities in the domestic market are reported, such as port inventories of iron ore and manganese ore [11].