1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, with significant influence from pre - holiday funds. After the holiday, it will fluctuate widely under the influence of expectations of price increases, rush shipments, and off - season [3]. - For far - month contracts, it's difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, and shipping companies have a large space for price - adjustment operations. It is recommended to operate with caution. The 10 - contract valuation is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3]. - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly to short the 09 contract and go long on the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - season switching node, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3]. - Before the Spring Festival holiday, there are frequent position - closing operations by funds, and the market is expected to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to operate with caution this week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Data - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1258.9, up 6.88%. The basis was 399.0, yesterday's trading volume was 36394, and the open interest was 31021, with a change of - 2006 [2]. - EC2605: The price was 1304.0, up 2.25%. The basis was 353.9, trading volume was 138, open interest was 194, with a change of - 20 [2]. - EC2606: The price was 1566.1, up 4.34%. The basis was 91.8, trading volume was 4232, open interest was 13387, with a change of - 798 [2]. - EC2607: The price was 1743.0, up 1.34%. The basis was - 85.1, trading volume was 48, open interest was 132, with a change of 13 [2]. - EC2608: The price was 1632.0, up 3.23%. The basis was 25.9, trading volume was 452, open interest was 1402, with a change of 31 [2]. - EC2609: The price was 1233.1, down 0.56%. The basis was 424.8, open interest was 133, with a change of - 1 [2]. - EC2610: The price was 1131.1, up 2.36%. The basis was 526.8, trading volume was 1230, open interest was 8090, with a change of - 218 [2]. - EC2612: The price was 1425.4, up 2.18%. The basis was 232.5, open interest was 122, with a change of - 3 [2]. 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2604 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 307.2, with a daily increase of 15.9 and a weekly decrease of 7.4 [2]. - EC2604 - 2605: The previous day's value was - 45.1, with a daily increase of 52.3 [2]. - EC2606 - 2610: The previous day's value was 435.0, with a daily increase of 39.0 and a weekly increase of 36.7 [2]. 3.3 Spot Index Data - Spot (European Line): On February 9, 2026, it was 1657.94 points, down 7.49% from the previous period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): On February 6, 2026, it was 1403 dollars/TEU, down 1.06% from the previous period [2]. 3.4 European Line Spot Situation - Week 7: MSK's opening rate was 1950 dollars (down 100 dollars from the previous week), PA was around 2000 dollars, MSC was 2140 dollars, OA was 2300 dollars. The central rate was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market [4]. - Week 8 - 9: MSK's opening rate remained at 1950 dollars, and other shipping companies also mainly continued their previous quotes [4]. - March price increase announcement: Last week, MSC took the lead in issuing a price - increase letter, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL. The European line price was announced to increase to 3000 - 3100 dollars [4]. - On Tuesday, MSK's opening rate for the first week of March (week 10) was 1950 dollars, the same as the previous week [4]. 3.5 Relevant News - On February 12, 2026, US President Trump said that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". He also said that the meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was "very good", and whether to reach an agreement "ultimately depends on me" [5]. - On February 12, 2026, Trump said that the meeting with Netanyahu was very successful, and they discussed the great progress in Gaza and the entire region [5].

Group 1: Contract Information - EC2602 contract had a closing price of 1737.8, a 1.03% increase, a basis of 54.3, a trading volume of 612, an open interest of 1883, and an open interest change of -456 [2][32] - EC2604 contract had a closing price of 1237.9, a 4.50% increase, a basis of 554.2, a trading volume of 29296, an open interest of 34229, and an open interest change of 423 [2][32] - EC2606 contract had a closing price of 1533.7, a 1.36% increase, a basis of 258.4, a trading volume of 3147, an open interest of 13458, and an open interest change of 860 [2][32] - EC2608 contract had a closing price of 1597.9, a -0.62% decrease, a basis of 194.2, a trading volume of 353, an open interest of 1479, and an open interest change of 29 [2][32] - EC2610 contract had a closing price of 1128.6, a -0.12% decrease, a basis of 663.5, a trading volume of 1355, an open interest of 7677, and an open interest change of -207 [2][32] Group 2: Month - Spread Information - The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 499.9 on the previous day, with a daily change of -35.5 and a weekly change of 9.9 [2][32] - The month - spread of EC2504 - 2606 was -295.8 on the previous day, with a daily change of 32.7 and a weekly change of -31.6 [2][32] Group 3: Index Information - The current spot index (European line) was 1792.14 on February 2, 2026, with a -3.61% change from the previous period and a -4.86% change from the period before the previous one [2][32] - The SCFI (European line) was 1418 dollars/TEU on January 30, 2026, with an -11.10% change from the previous period and a -4.83% change from the period before the previous one [2][32] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations - Currently, geopolitical concerns are high. In the near - term, the 04 contract is expected to oscillate between 1100 - 1250 points due to Maersk's stable February quotes, March rush - shipping expectations, April off - season expectations, and long - term contract price suppression. It is recommended to short the 04 contract cautiously, and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. Future focus should be on PA alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3][33] - In the long - term, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the off - season and tax - refund negative factors. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to anchor, and they are expected to oscillate widely within a reasonable range. Cautious operation is recommended under geopolitical uncertainties [3][33] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - This week, downstream customers are booking cabins for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - receiving situation of ships is good, but the cargo - booking pressure has increased. Shipping companies need to book cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday. The price center in week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market. MSK's cabin opening price for week 8 - 9 is 1950 US dollars (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes are also mainly unchanged [4][34] Group 6: Related News - On February 3, Maersk and HPL decided to resume a route of the GEMINI alliance's European line through the Suez Canal. Starting from mid - February 2026, a structural change will be implemented for Maersk's ME11 service, transitioning it to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [5][35] - On February 4, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with US Middle East envoy Witkoff for over three hours to discuss the Iranian issue. Netanyahu stated that Iran is untrustworthy and cannot abide by any commitments, and the Palestinian National Authority will not participate in the governance of the Gaza Strip. Israel has "uncompromising requirements" for Hamas to disarm, the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, and the achievement of all war goals. Gaza's reconstruction can only start after these goals are fully achieved [5][35] - On February 3, US media reported that six Iranian gunboats approached the US - flagged oil tanker "Stenalmperative" in the Strait of Hormuz. The oil tanker accelerated and maintained its course under the escort of a US warship and is expected to arrive at Sitra Port in Bahrain on February 5. Iranian media reported that some ships were intercepted for entering Iranian territorial waters without permission [6][36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The European shipping market is expected to see the cargo volume reach the bottom in October and turn around in November based on EPMI data. From late September to late October, shipping companies will compete for cargo, but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy during the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is predicted that the offline freight rates will drop to the May low in late October, and shipping companies will start to support prices through contracts after the cargo volume recovers in November. The suspension of some shipping capacities during the National Day holiday, which will not resume after the holiday, has limited impact on the market due to the low cargo volume [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1398, down 3.21% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1125, down 2.07%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West increased by 8.27%, SCFIS - US West decreased by 3.26%, SCFI - US East increased by 7.61%, SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 12.24%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.68%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 11.82% [6]. - **Derivative Contracts**: For shipping derivative contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., most showed a downward trend. For example, EC2506 decreased by 0.92%, EC2608 decreased by 0.31%, EC2510 decreased by 5.02%, etc. [6]. - **Contract Positions**: The positions of some contracts increased. For example, the position of EC2606 increased by 6, EC2410 increased by 2187, etc. [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 1.3, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 38.3, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread decreased by 60.9 [6]. 3.2 Market News - All eyes are on the meeting between Beisente and Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Madrid on Monday, but expectations should be moderate, with the best - case scenario being no escalation of the current situation. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has adjusted its US route network to deal with the port fees that the US is about to impose on Chinese - built or - operated ships and stated that it will absorb the costs without passing them on to customers. US President Donald Trump plans to urge G7 countries to impose a 50% - 100% high - tariff on India and China's purchase of Russian oil. The US is experiencing a stagflation - like situation for the first time in forty years [7]. 3.3 EC Market - **Market Conditions**: The market is in a downward trend. The spot prices in September, such as GEMINI, QA, PA, and MSC, have all declined. The freight rate center of PAK in the market in late September is 1750 [8]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to short in October and conduct a 10 - 12 reverse spread [9].