Key Takeaways ABBV guides 2026 revenues at $67B, about 9.5% above 2025, led by newer immunology drugs Rinvoq and Skyrizi.ABBV projects Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales above $31B in 2026, more than 20% YoY, even as Humira slips to $2.9B.ABBV sees neuroscience at $12.5B in 2026 with Vyalev topping $1B, while Imbruvica sales fall to $2.2B.AbbVie (ABBV) had an encouraging year in 2025, registering a sales growth of about 8.5% year over year at constant exchange rates. This number is impressive for a company that has b ...

Core Viewpoint - AbbVie and Medtronic are highlighted as healthcare stocks that consistently grow their dividends, supported by healthy free cash flow, despite the general trend of lower dividend yields in the healthcare sector [1][3][15]. AbbVie - AbbVie has a dividend yield of 2.98% and has increased its quarterly dividend for 54 consecutive years, qualifying it as a Dividend King [4]. - The company reported revenue of $15.8 billion in the third quarter, a 9% year-over-year increase, although earnings per share (EPS) declined by 38% to $1.86 due to higher R&D spending [6]. - AbbVie has successfully transitioned from reliance on Humira, which previously accounted for 63% of its revenue, to a diversified portfolio including Rinvoq and Skyrizi, with Skyrizi generating $4.7 billion in the latest quarter [7]. - The oncology segment now contributes nearly 11% to AbbVie's revenue, bolstered by new therapies [8]. - AbbVie's dividend payout ratio is 58%, but its free cash flow per share of $11.11 supports its annual dividend payout of $6.92 [9]. Medtronic - Medtronic, with a market cap of $132 billion, is the largest stand-alone medical device maker, producing a wide range of medical equipment [10]. - The company reported revenue of $9 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, a 6.6% year-over-year increase, with EPS rising 8% to $1.07 [13]. - Medtronic's dividend yield is approximately 2.76%, and it has increased its dividend for 48 consecutive years, with a payout ratio of 69% [14]. - The company plans to spin off its diabetes business, which accounts for only 8% of revenue, without impacting its dividend [14]. Industry Insights - Healthcare companies, unlike utilities, must continuously invest in R&D due to the nature of their products, which often face patent expirations and generic competition [2]. - AbbVie and Medtronic leverage their size and diversification to maintain revenue growth and dividend increases, mitigating risks from potential downturns in specific segments [15][16].

Core Insights - A significant portion of AbbVie's revenues is derived from its oncology franchise, which has expanded from blood cancer drugs to include therapies for solid tumors, contributing over 11% to total revenues in the first nine months of 2025 with a year-over-year growth of 3% [1][7] Oncology Segment Performance - Fourth-quarter 2025 sales for AbbVie's oncology segment are estimated at $1.75 billion, reflecting nearly 4% year-over-year growth, driven by Venclexta, Epkinly, and Elahere, although this growth may be partially offset by declining sales of Imbruvica due to increased competition [2][7] - AbbVie's oncology portfolio includes five therapies, with the latest additions being Epkinly, Elahere, and Emrelis, which was approved in May 2025 [1][2] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors in the oncology space include AstraZeneca, Merck, and Pfizer, with AstraZeneca's oncology sales accounting for 43% of total revenues and growing 16% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - Merck's Keytruda accounted for approximately 48% of its total revenues, while Pfizer's oncology revenues grew by 7%, driven by several key drugs [5] Investor Focus and Valuation - Investor attention is primarily on AbbVie's immunology franchise, which includes Humira, Rinvoq, and Skyrizi, as the company prepares to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results [3][7] - AbbVie is currently trading at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.19, which is below the industry average of 17.56, indicating a potential valuation opportunity [8]

Core Viewpoint - AbbVie (ABBV) stock has recently declined by 3.2% following the denial of takeover talks with Revolution Medicines, which was rumored to be valued at around $20 billion [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - AbbVie reported combined sales of Skyrizi and Rinvoq at $18.5 billion in the first nine months of 2025, with expectations to exceed $25 billion in 2025 and $31 billion by 2027 [5][6]. - The oncology segment generated revenues of $5.0 billion in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.7% [8]. - Neuroscience drug sales increased by 20.3% to nearly $7.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, driven by products like Botox Therapeutic and Vraylar [10]. Group 2: Product Developments - AbbVie has successfully launched new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, to offset the loss of exclusivity for Humira, which has seen a significant decline in sales [4][14]. - The company has settled patent litigation for Rinvoq, extending its exclusivity until 2037 [7]. - New product approvals and pipeline candidates, including tavapadon and pivekimab sunirine, are expected to drive long-term growth [12]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Humira sales have declined over 50% in the first nine months of 2025 due to biosimilar competition [14]. - The Aesthetics segment has faced a 7.4% decline in global sales, with Juvederm and Botox Cosmetics also experiencing significant drops [15][16]. - AbbVie has lowered its Aesthetics business expectations from $5.1 billion to $4.9 billion due to market softness [17]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - AbbVie has engaged in over 30 M&A transactions since early 2024 to enhance its early-stage pipeline, including the acquisition of Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals [13]. - The company aims for mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025, supported by strong performances from its new product launches [28]. - AbbVie is well-positioned for continued growth despite challenges, with a robust pipeline and a focus on R&D investments [26][29].

Core Insights - Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) are rapidly evolving as a targeted therapy in oncology, with numerous ADC therapies approved globally and hundreds in active clinical research, indicating a robust growth trend [1][13][15] - The complexity of ADC's multi-component structure presents challenges in efficacy and safety evaluation, as well as resistance prediction, necessitating comprehensive support for drug development [1][8][22] ADC Development Progress - Since 2025, several innovative ADCs have received regulatory approval, providing new treatment options for various cancers, including breast cancer and non-small cell lung cancer [15][16] - Notable approvals include Enhertu for HER2-positive breast cancer, Blenrep for relapsed multiple myeloma, and Emrelis for c-Met expressing non-small cell lung cancer [15][16] Clinical Trials and Data - Ongoing ADCs have reported promising clinical data, targeting various antigens such as CDH6 and EGFR/HER3, with indications covering ovarian cancer and endometrial cancer [18][19] - For instance, the CDH6-targeting ADC R-DXd showed a 50.5% objective response rate in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer patients [18] ADC Safety and Efficacy Evaluation - The evaluation of ADC efficacy relies on the synergistic interaction of its three core components: antibody, linker, and payload, which significantly affect drug stability and pharmacokinetics [20][21] - Safety assessments are critical, addressing potential risks such as payload release and immune responses, with comprehensive testing solutions provided to ensure quality and efficiency [21] Addressing Resistance Mechanisms - ADC resistance mechanisms, including antigen downregulation and altered payload metabolism, pose significant challenges, prompting the industry to focus on early-stage strategies to mitigate resistance [22][23] - Strategies include leveraging the "bystander effect" and exploring combinations with immunotherapy to enhance overall immune response [23] Comprehensive Support Solutions - WuXi AppTec has established a complete ADC research platform that integrates high-resolution mass spectrometry and targeted data analysis to address the complexities of ADC development [20] - The company has assisted partners in completing over 100 IND submissions, providing integrated solutions for efficacy evaluation, safety validation, and resistance analysis [23]

Core Insights - AbbVie is significantly expanding its oncology presence, moving from a two-drug franchise to include solid tumors, with new drugs like Epkinly, Elahere, and Emrelis contributing to over 11% of total revenues in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth [1][9] Expansion Strategies - The expansion is driven by both organic and inorganic strategies, with Emrelis being AbbVie's first internally developed solid tumor drug, while Epkinly and Elahere were acquired through collaborations [2] - Sales from newer drugs and rising Venclexta sales have offset the decline in Imbruvica sales due to competition from novel therapies [2] Pipeline Development - AbbVie has a diverse pipeline of new therapies for blood cancers and solid tumors, including antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), which are seen as a disruptive innovation in cancer treatment [3] - A regulatory filing for the ADC therapy pivekimab sunirine is under FDA review for treating a rare blood cancer, which could add a third ADC to AbbVie's portfolio [4] - The company is also developing Temab-A for metastatic colorectal cancer and other cancers in various stages of clinical trials [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors in the oncology space include AstraZeneca, Merck, and Pfizer, with AstraZeneca's oncology sales accounting for 43% of total revenues and growing 16% year-over-year [6] - Merck's Keytruda accounted for about 48% of its total revenues, while Pfizer's oncology revenues grew 7%, making up over 27% of its total revenues [7] Financial Performance - AbbVie shares have outperformed the industry year to date, trading at a slight discount with a P/E ratio of 15.87 compared to the industry average of 16.31 [8][11] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have declined in the past 60 days, indicating potential challenges ahead [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The third-generation EGFR TKI has become the first-line standard therapy for advanced EGFR mutation NSCLC, significantly extending median progression-free survival (mPFS) to 18.9-22.1 months compared to earlier generations [4][24]. - The domestic EGFR TKI market is expected to exceed 20 billion CNY in 2024, with third-generation EGFR TKIs accounting for 88% of the market share [4][30]. - There is an urgent need to address resistance mechanisms following third-generation EGFR TKI treatment, with ongoing exploration of fourth-generation TKIs, bispecific antibodies, and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [5][32]. Summary by Sections 1. High Incidence of Lung Cancer in China - Lung cancer is the most common malignant tumor globally, with approximately 2.6 million new cases expected in 2024, including about 1.15 million in China [8]. - Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) accounts for around 85% of lung cancer cases, with adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma being the most prevalent subtypes [8]. 2. Third-Generation EGFR TKI as First-Line Therapy - The third-generation EGFR TKI has established itself as the first-line treatment for advanced EGFR mutation NSCLC, with significant improvements in mPFS compared to first and second generations [4][16][24]. - The report highlights the efficacy of third-generation TKIs in overcoming common mutations and their favorable safety profile [4][24]. 3. Exploration of Resistance Mechanisms - The report discusses the complexity of resistance mechanisms to third-generation EGFR TKIs, including both EGFR-dependent and independent pathways [5][32]. - Current research focuses on developing fourth-generation TKIs targeting specific mutations and exploring combination therapies with bispecific antibodies and ADCs [5][32][39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the growth potential of third-generation EGFR TKIs and suggests monitoring companies like Hansoh Pharma and Eli Lilly for market penetration and sales growth [51]. - It also highlights the progress of ADCs and bispecific antibodies in clinical trials, indicating a robust pipeline for future treatments [51][52].

Core Insights - AbbVie is expected to report Q3 2025 earnings on October 31, with sales estimated at $15.59 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.80, although earnings estimates have declined from $12.02 to $10.81 in the past month [1][4][20] Financial Performance - AbbVie has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 2.46% [2][3] - The company anticipates adjusted earnings between $1.74 and $1.78 per share for Q3 2025, with net revenues around $15.5 billion [6] Product Performance - Sales growth is expected to be driven by newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, with consensus estimates for Skyrizi at $4.56 billion and Rinvoq at $2.16 billion [7] - Humira, AbbVie's blockbuster drug, is projected to generate $1.15 billion in sales, facing erosion due to lost patent protection [8] - In oncology, sales of Imbruvica are expected to decline due to competition, while Venclexta sales are anticipated to rise [9][10] - Neuroscience product sales are estimated at $2.74 billion, driven by strong performances from Botox, Vraylar, and new migraine drugs [12][11] - Aesthetics product sales are projected to recover to $1.27 billion, supported by stabilizing demand in the U.S. market [13] Stock Performance and Valuation - AbbVie's stock has increased over 28% this year, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [15] - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 16.60, above the industry average of 15.58 and its five-year mean of 13.27 [18] Strategic Outlook - AbbVie is expected to achieve robust revenue growth in 2025, with a projected high single-digit revenue CAGR through 2029, driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq [20] - Recent acquisitions and licensing deals have increased near-term expenses, impacting EPS estimates negatively [22][23] - Short-term investors may consider selling due to elevated IPR&D expenses, while long-term investors may remain optimistic about the company's growth potential [24]

Core Thesis - AbbVie Inc. is positioned for significant growth in its oncology portfolio, particularly through its antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) Elahere and Emrelis, which target specific cancer types [1][4]. Oncology Portfolio - AbbVie is advancing its oncology portfolio with two ADCs: Elahere, approved for ovarian cancer, and Emrelis, approved for non-small cell lung cancer [2][3]. - Elahere generated global net revenues of $159 million in Q2 2025, marking a 24.2% sequential increase, with projected full-year 2025 sales of approximately $750 million [2]. - The global market opportunity for Elahere is estimated to exceed $1.7 billion by 2029 and could reach $6 billion by 2034 with continued adoption and additional indications [3]. Growth Potential - Emrelis is in the early stages of its commercial launch, with anticipated global sales ranging from $500 million to $1 billion by 2029 [3]. - The combination of Elahere's established market presence and Emrelis's potential positions AbbVie to capture meaningful growth in the oncology sector [4]. - Strong early adoption trends and a significant addressable market highlight AbbVie's capability to drive both near-term revenue growth and long-term strategic value in targeted cancer therapies [4]. Historical Performance - AbbVie’s stock price has appreciated approximately 17.9% since a previous bullish thesis in May 2025, which emphasized strong performance in immunology and oncology [5].

Core Insights - AbbVie has developed a significant oncology franchise, expanding from blood cancer drugs to include therapies for solid tumors, totaling five oncology products [1] - The oncology segment contributed over 11% to AbbVie's revenues in the first half of 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 5% [2] - Third-quarter 2025 oncology sales are estimated at $1.71 billion, reflecting nearly 2% growth year-over-year, despite declining sales of Imbruvica due to competition [3] AbbVie's Oncology Performance - AbbVie's oncology sales are projected to reach $1.71 billion in Q3 2025, with contributions from Venclexta, Epkinly, and Elahere, while Imbruvica continues to face challenges [7] - The recent approval of Emrelis for lung cancer is expected to provide modest revenue contributions in the upcoming quarter [3][7] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors in the oncology market include AstraZeneca, Merck, and Pfizer, with AstraZeneca's oncology sales accounting for nearly 43% of its total revenues, growing 11% in the first half of 2025 [5] - Merck's Keytruda, a PD-L1 inhibitor, represented over 48% of its total revenues in the first half of 2025, highlighting its significance in the oncology space [6] - Pfizer's oncology revenues grew 9% operationally in the first half of 2025, driven by several key drugs, now making up over 25% of its total revenues [6]