证券研究报告|行业简评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 Q2 业绩符合预期，乐观展望全球和中国 AI 基建规模 英伟达（NVDA.O）FY26Q2 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件： 英伟达发布 FY26Q2 季报，本季营收 467 亿美元，同比+56%/环比+6%，剔除 H20 相关费用影响后毛利率为 72.3%，按剔除影响后同比-3.4pcts/环比+1pct。 综合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、FY26Q2 营收及毛利率符合预期，尚未向中国境内客户销售 H20 产品。 FY26Q2 营收 467 亿美元，同比+56%/环比+6%，符合预期（450 亿美元）， 公司 FY26Q2 向中国境外的一位非受限客户销售约 6.5 亿美元的 H20 产品，并 由此释放了此前计提的约 1.8 亿美元库存，但未向中国境内客户销售 H20 产品； non-GAAP 毛利率为 72.7%，剔除 H20 相关费用影响后为 72.3%，超指引预期， 剔除后同比-3.4pcts/环比+1pct，同比下降主要系主要系相较于去年 Hopper HGX，今年 Blackwell 架构营收主要来自完整数据中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent quarterly earnings report from Supermicro (NASDAQ: SMCI) served as a wake-up call for investors, revealing that both revenue and non-GAAP EPS fell short of expectations, with guidance for Q1 FY2026 also below market forecasts [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q4 FY2025, Supermicro's revenue growth was only 7.5%, significantly lower than the market's initial expectation of a 35% increase, which was later revised down to 12% [5]. - The company has adjusted its revenue target for FY2026 from $40 billion to "at least $33 billion," indicating a projected year-over-year growth of 50% [6][7]. Market Reaction - Following the disappointing Q4 earnings, Supermicro's stock price dropped over 20%, reflecting a reset in market expectations regarding the company's recovery timeline [2][13]. - The current stock price corresponds to a non-GAAP forward P/E ratio of 17.2, which is in line with the five-year average [2]. Future Outlook - Management indicated that growth catalysts are expected to emerge starting in Q2 FY2026, provided there are no significant economic downturns or unexpected slowdowns in AI demand [2][7]. - The introduction of the GB200 system and the modular data center solution (DCBBS) are anticipated to drive revenue growth, with DCBBS expected to contribute approximately $9.9 billion by Q4 FY2026 [7][8]. Profitability Concerns - Supermicro's non-GAAP gross margin has declined for three consecutive quarters, reaching 9.6% in Q4 FY2025, significantly lower than the 15% level seen in the first half of FY2024 [10][11]. - The company has projected non-GAAP operating expenses of $247 million for Q1 FY2026, with an expected operating profit margin of approximately 5.8%, indicating limited improvement [11][12]. Investment Sentiment - Despite the recent downturn, there is cautious optimism regarding Supermicro's potential for recovery, with analysts upgrading the stock rating from "hold" to "buy" based on anticipated growth catalysts [2][13]. - The market sentiment remains low, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued, presenting a long-term investment opportunity [13].

Core Insights - AI technology is fundamentally reshaping the future of computing and industry, marking the arrival of a new industrial revolution driven by "AI factories" [1] - Traditional data centers are evolving into AI factories that generate "intelligent tokens," providing power across various industries [1] - NVIDIA's new architecture, Blackwell, is designed to meet the increasing inference demands of AI models, achieving a significant performance leap [1] Group 1 - Huang Renxun predicts the next phase of AI, termed Agentic AI, which will understand tasks, reason, plan, and execute complex tasks, with robots as its physical embodiment [2] - The demonstration of a robot named "Greg" showcased the ability to learn and interact within a digital twin environment before being deployed in the physical world [2] - Major companies like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Toyota are utilizing Omniverse to create digital twins of their factories or products [2] Group 2 - NVIDIA has made significant progress in quantum computing, viewing it as a pivotal moment, and plans to connect quantum processors (QPU) with GPUs for enhanced computational tasks [2] - The entire cuQuantum quantum computing algorithm stack is now capable of accelerating on the Grace Blackwell system [2] - Huang Renxun emphasized deep collaboration with European partners, including the establishment of a large AI cloud with French company Mistral and partnerships with Schneider Electric for future AI factory design [2] Group 3 - NVIDIA is establishing AI technology centers in seven different countries to promote local ecosystem development and collaborative research [3] - A new computing era has begun, with NVIDIA providing a full-stack platform from chips to software and AI models to empower global developers and enterprises [3]

作 者丨倪雨晴 编 辑丨张伟贤 图源丨IC 整个华尔街整个AI界都在翘首等待AI巨头英伟达的最新成绩单。 美东时间2月2 6日盘后，英伟达发布了2 0 2 5财年第四季度财报（截至2 0 2 5年1月2 6日），成绩 超预期。 财报显示，英伟达第四财季总营收达到3 9 3 . 3 1亿美元，同比增长7 8%；净利润为2 2 0 . 6 6亿美 元，同比增长7 2%。全年来看，英伟达全年实现营收1 3 0 4 . 9 7亿美元，同比增长11 4%；净利 润达7 2 8 . 8 0亿美元，同比增长1 4 5%。 整个2 0 2 5财年，英伟达依然高速增长，并且在偏保守悲观的市场情绪中，交出了一份高于预 期的成绩，释放了信心。 此前不少投资机构预计，英伟达四季度营收同比增速将放缓到7 3% 左右，实际上达到了7 8%，同时，对应每股净利0 . 8 9美元也高于分析师预计的0 . 8 4美元。 具体到业务线，数据中心业务在第四季度收入高达3 5 5 . 8亿美元，占总营收的绝大部分，同比 增长9 3 . 3 2%。全年营收增长1 4 2%，达到创纪录的11 5 2亿美元。近两年来，数据业务是英伟 达业绩高增的核心引擎 ...