如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 英伟达未回应关于该备忘录的置评请求。 伯恩斯坦刊发备忘录的前一日，科技媒体《The Information》报道称，Meta正与Alphabet旗下谷 歌洽谈使用后者推出的 AI 芯片（与英伟达半导体形成竞争），消息发布后英伟达股价应声下跌。 英伟达随后在 X 平台（原推特）公开回应该报道，称 "为谷歌的成功感到高兴"，但强调其芯片仍 比竞争对手 "领先一代"。这一表态引发 X 平台用户质疑与批评，有用户疑惑为何英伟达要通过社 交媒体回应谷歌 —— 后者是英伟达的主要客户之一。 谷歌 DeepMind 研究员苏珊・张（Susan Zhang，拥有 3.8 万余名粉丝）在 X 平台写道："英伟达 肯定有人意识到这一表态多么不妥…… 对吧？" 全球市值最高企业英伟达正针对其 4.5 万亿美元估值（较历史峰值 5 万亿美元有所回落）的质疑 展开防御，通过在华尔街及社交媒体发起信息公关活动回应市场疑虑。 上周，英伟达向卖方股票分析师发布详细备忘录，逐点反驳了因书籍及电影《大空头》而闻名的迈 克尔・伯里（Michael Burry）及 Substack 平台其他作者的相关言论。 ...

黄仁勋回应： 这不是泡沫 而是三次平台级转型叠加 英伟达上周三（11月19日）公布远超市场预期的三季度财报：营收达570.1亿美元，同比暴增62%，不仅 击败分析师预期的551.9亿美元，公司给出的下一财季指引更是高达650亿美元，同样高于市场预估的624 亿美元。如此亮眼的数据，让英伟达在当日的盘后交易一度飙涨超6%，管理层甚至罕见放出"从今年年初 到2026年12月，Blackwell和Rubin芯片有望带来5000亿美元营收"的豪言。 然而，狂欢只持续了不到24小时。次日（11月20日）开盘，英伟达股价高开5%至196美元后快速跳水， 最终收跌近3%至180.98美元，盘中跌幅一度超过7%，创下一个月来最低收盘价。英伟达的急转直下也拖 累标普500指数大跌约3%，反应市场对科技板块的风险偏好明显降温。 为何英伟达这一"史诗级"财报没能撑住市场情绪？有市场机构指出，英伟达出色的销售数据并不能完全证 明AI大潮的可持续性。市场对"AI泡沫"的争议再次被推到台前，"AI投资的回报率到底在哪里？"不少投 资者担忧，当前AI的火热，是否正在走向一种"只见铁锹不见黄金"的循环式繁荣。就像当年的加州淘金 热一样，铁锹 ...

Core Insights - AI technology has become a core driving force in the computer and software development industry, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud providers [1] - The combined investment of Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta in AI-related infrastructure is expected to exceed $110 billion by Q3 2025, primarily for data centers and AI infrastructure [1] - AI is significantly boosting cloud business revenues, with Amazon AWS backlog orders exceeding $200 billion, Microsoft Azure experiencing a growth rate of 40%, and Google Cloud revenue share increasing to 14.8% [1] - The demand for AI computing power remains robust, with NVIDIA's data center revenue reaching a record $51.2 billion in a single quarter, and Blackwell chips projected to generate $500 billion in future quarters [1] - AI technology is also driving revenue growth for SaaS companies, with firms like ServiceNow and Palantir achieving substantial income increases, including Palantir's U.S. commercial business revenue growing by 121% year-over-year [1] - The overall industry is characterized by high growth in AI-driven cloud business, strong demand for computing power, and accelerated application deployment [1] Software ETF Insights - The software ETF (515230) tracks the software index (H30202), which selects publicly traded companies involved in application software, system software development, and related services [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the software industry, focusing on the information technology sector [1] - The index highlights the innovation capability and growth potential of the industry, making it suitable for investors interested in technology-focused allocations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong earnings reports from major companies like Nvidia and positive employment data, investor sentiment remains negative, leading to a decline in the stock market [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57.01 billion, exceeding expectations of $54.92 billion, with earnings per share of $1.30, above the anticipated $1.25. The company forecasts revenue of $65 billion for the next quarter [1]. - Nvidia's future chip developments, Blackwell and Rubin, are projected to generate $500 billion in revenue, yet the overall AI sector did not benefit from this news [1]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has increased by 27.45% this year but has seen a decline of 6.33% in the past month, indicating volatility in the semiconductor sector [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The three major U.S. stock indices fell by 1.91% (Dow Jones), 1.95% (S&P 500), and 2.74% (Nasdaq) last week, reflecting a broader market downturn despite earlier gains [2]. - The S&P 500 index has risen by 12.26% this year, with eight key stocks contributing 69.53% to this increase, highlighting the market's heavy reliance on AI and semiconductor investments [2]. - Investor skepticism regarding AI's economic impact has led to a sell-off in tech stocks, with many institutions opting to secure profits [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, with 119,000 new jobs added, significantly above the expected 53,000 [1][4]. - Job growth has been primarily in the service sector, with notable increases in healthcare, social services, and retail, while transportation and professional services saw job losses [4]. - The upcoming employment reports and consumer price index data are critical for the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates, adding uncertainty to the market [4][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market faces three main challenges: potential AI bubble, employment market dynamics, and inflation trends, with concerns that a collapse in AI could have severe repercussions [7]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings will be complicated by the lack of recent economic data, making decisions on interest rates more challenging [7]. - Overall, the outlook suggests that even with potential interest rate cuts, the stock market may continue to face downward pressure [9].

Group 1: Company Performance - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57.01 billion, exceeding expectations of $54.92 billion, with earnings per share of $1.30, above the forecast of $1.25 [2] - Nvidia's future chip releases, Blackwell and Rubin, are projected to generate $500 billion in revenue [2] - Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock saw a decline in the following days, reflecting broader market concerns [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends - The S&P 500 index has risen by 12.26% this year, with eight key stocks contributing 69.53% to this increase [3] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector index has increased by 27.45% year-to-date but has recently experienced a decline of 6.33% over the past month [3] - Investor skepticism regarding AI investments has led to significant sell-offs in the stock market, diminishing the impact of positive news [3][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, with 119,000 new jobs added, significantly above the expected 53,000 [2][7] - Job growth has been primarily in the service sector, with notable increases in healthcare, social services, and retail, while transportation and professional services saw job losses [7] - The upcoming employment reports are critical for the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [7][11] Group 4: Financial System and Liquidity - The U.S. financial system has seen increased reliance on short-term financing, with a significant rise in overnight repo market transactions [8] - The current liquidity crisis is more severe than in previous periods, with the overnight financing rate nearing the upper limit of the federal funds target [8][10] - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to address the market's current state to prevent a potential crisis [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - Concerns about the sustainability of AI investments and the potential for a market bubble are prevalent, with significant discrepancies between investment and revenue [10] - The upcoming economic reports will be crucial for market sentiment, particularly regarding inflation and employment trends [11] - The expectation of interest rate cuts remains uncertain, with potential implications for market stability [11]

Group 1 - Nvidia reported its Q3 2025 earnings with revenue and net profit exceeding expectations, projecting $500 billion revenue visibility from future Blackwell and Rubin chips [1] - Despite Nvidia's strong performance, the AI sector in the US stock market did not recover, with related stocks experiencing a collective decline the following day [1] - The cooling of the AI sector is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over OpenAI's solvency and its substantial collaborations with cloud providers and chip companies exceeding current revenues [3] Group 2 - Nvidia faces challenges such as rising inventory levels and deferred revenue models, raising investor concerns about potential revenue gaps if future orders slow down [3] - Some analysts argue that the increase in inventory is a strategic move to ensure capacity and address supply chain competition [3] - Google's release of the Gemini 3 model, which outperforms ChatGPT and is based on self-developed TPU training, reduces market dependence on Nvidia's chips, further impacting sector sentiment [3]

软件ETF（515230）跟踪的是软件指数（H30202），该指数从市场中选取涉及应用软件、系统软件开发 及相关服务的信息技术企业证券作为指数样本，以反映软件行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 聚焦于信息技术领域，具备较高的成长性和创新性特征。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券指出，AI技术已成为计算机和软件开发行业的核心增长引擎。海外云厂商持续加大资本开 支，CY25Q3四巨头合计投入超1100亿美元，主要投向数据中心和AI基础设施，其中亚马逊单季度资本 开支骤增55%至351亿美元。AI驱动云业务收入高增长，AWS积压订单超2000亿美元，微软Azure增速达 40%，谷歌云收入占比提升至14.8%。AI算力需求强劲，英伟达数据中心营收创单季记录达512亿美元， Blackwell芯片未来几个季度将创收5000亿美元。AI技术还推动SaaS公司业绩增长，ServiceNow、 Palantir等企业营收显著提升，AI平台和应用成为关键驱动力。行业整体呈现高景气态势，云厂商和算 力需求持续扩张。 ...

可Q3财报一出炉，所有质疑全被推翻，单季营收570亿美元，数据中心狂赚512亿，同比暴涨66%，Blackwell芯片卖断 货，下季度还预告赚650亿。 黄仁勋说"AI不是泡沫"，这份底气从哪来？算力狂潮到底是真革命还是假狂欢？ 家人们，AI泡沫论刚热，英伟达就用570亿营收硬核回应！前段时间全球资本市场都在传"AI虚火要灭"，英伟达股价5天 跌了7%，做空者跃跃欲试。 市场撕裂 近三周全球股市震荡不断，英伟达的股价波动让投资者捏了把汗，财报公布前五个交易日，这家科技巨头市值蒸发数百 亿美元，单日最大跌幅超3%，"AI投资见顶"的焦虑在市场蔓延。 当下多数AI应用公司确实处境尴尬，估值被炒得离谱，实际营收却跟不上，大家担心"投资打水漂"也不是没道理。 前言： 但英伟达偏偏走出了独立行情，这份Q3财报堪称"史上最强"，总营收冲到570亿美元，比上季度增长22%，和去年同期 比更是飙升62%。 核心的AI数据中心业务更亮眼，营收512亿美元，环比涨25%，同比大涨66%，远超市场预期。 | 指标 (单位: 美元) | 华尔街预期 (Consensus) | 实际公布结果 (Actual) | 同比增 | | -- ...

Core Conclusions - The Asia-Pacific market experienced a "Black Friday" with significant declines primarily due to two factors: global liquidity expectations fluctuating and a sharp drop in sentiment observed through leveraged funds [1] - Historically, in bull markets, instances of breaking below the 60-day moving average are rare, and it typically takes about 10 days to recover. If a "time for space" strategy is needed, a maximum drawdown of around 15% can be tolerated, although current conditions differ from historical contexts [1][3] - Analyzing the recent bull market with over 2.5 times gains in specific sectors, a deviation of -1.5% from the logarithmic moving average is a favorable entry point, with a success rate of nearly 70% and an average gain exceeding 5% in the following month. Currently, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the ChiNext Index have not reached the -1.5% entry threshold, suggesting that the Science and Technology Innovation 50 may stabilize first during the pullback [1][4] Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific market faced widespread declines, with the A-share market's North China 50 and ChiNext Index dropping 9.04% and 6.15% respectively, significantly exceeding the declines in developed markets [2][10] - The overall performance of growth sectors, including electrolytes, lithium batteries, storage, photovoltaics, and rare earths, showed considerable pressure, with the number of rising and falling stocks converging to the second-lowest point of the year [2][12] Liquidity and Sentiment - The core driver of market adjustments is the significant volatility in global liquidity expectations, influenced by hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials and rising Japanese bond yields, which have tightened liquidity and increased selling pressure on risk assets [20][26] - The market sentiment has cooled significantly, with high-leverage investors showing a marked decline in activity, leading to direct selling pressure and amplifying market volatility [26] Bull Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that in the past 30 years, there have been 59 instances of breaking below the 60-day moving average during bull markets, with an average recovery time of 11.1 days. Approximately one-third of these instances saw immediate recovery the next day [3][30] - The success rates for recovery at various time intervals (T+5, T+20, T+60, T+120) are 67.8%, 59.3%, 84.7%, and 83.1% respectively, indicating a generally favorable outlook for recovery in bull market conditions [30][31] Entry Points for Investment - The analysis suggests that a logarithmic moving average deviation of -1.5% is a high-probability entry point for investment, with a historical success rate of 68.15% and an average return of 5.71% for specific sectors during the 2019-2021 bull market [4][41] - Currently, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and ChiNext Index are close to breaking below the exponential moving average of 60, but have not yet reached the -1.5% threshold, indicating potential for stabilization in the near term [47]

致。前期美联储官员释放鹰派信号，日债收益率新高，套息交易收紧流动性 的螺旋有所强化。英伟达Q3 财报超预期，黄仁勋回应AI 泡沫论，但市场"Sell the rip"，AI 繁荣与互联网泡沫相提并论的质疑被 price in。国内交投情 绪降温始于 8 月末缩量，但杠杆资金的降温则在近期表现得更加明显，高杠 杆投资者情绪转冷形成直接的抛压，放大市场的下行波动。 牛途折返如何演绎，平均需要 10 日左右收复失地，历史上需要"以时间换 空间"的时段对当前参考有限。过去 30 年中的牛市阶段共计出现 59 次盘中 低点刺破 60 日线的情况，破位后平均需要 11.1 天重新站回 60 日线，1/3 左 右的情况次日重新站上 60 日线，在牛途未完的语境下，周线、月线级别胜 率在六成以上，季线级胜率在八成以上。牛市环境中跌破 60 日线后，20 天 以内无法重新站稳的情形出现 11 次，这其中更多面临系统性的政策收紧、 海内外黑天鹅事件亦或是分子端下滑，均与当前市场环境并不一致。我们维 持"牛市进入第二阶段"判断，存款搬家逻辑延续，盈利驱动市场坚实上涨。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 策略周思考 回撤何时 ...