来源：Counterpoint《市场展望 — ASP预测追踪报告》 注：ASP基于批发价格 从疫情期间的需求波动到供应链挑战，再到近期关税引发的市场波动，经过多年动荡后全球智能手机市场正逐步恢复常态。美国运营商的持续大力促销使 得库存并未积压，手机品牌厂商也维持着其常规的的发布周期和采购策略。Counterpoint的市场展望预计2025年下半年至2026年市场将更为"常态化"，进 一步印证了我们对平均售价增长和稳定销量将维持收入增长的预测。迄今为止，智能手机基本未受到美国对贸易伙伴加征关税的影响，相比汽车、半导体 和其他消费电子领域更具韧性。然而，美国关税的不确定性以及低迷的宏观经济环境，仍可能在未来使形势更加复杂。 受到上半年提前出货影响，北美出货量预计将在2025年下半年下滑，但关税传导将推动全年ASP同比增长7%。苹果的高端机型、运营商的持续促销以及 折叠屏产品的亮眼表现预计将使ASP在2026年升至984美元。从长远来看，美国将在维持全球ASP高位方面发挥稳定作用，但由于其本身已是一个高端市 场，故在2029年前将会对ASP提供更加渐进式的贡献。我们预计因贸易环境不会再度引发价格的突然上涨，因为新增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone average selling price (ASP) is projected to increase from $370 in 2025 to $412 in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% driven by high-end trends and the adoption of 5G technology [4][6][10]. Market Trends - The global smartphone market is expected to see a 2.5% year-on-year growth in shipments in 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.9% [6]. - The ASP is anticipated to rise by 3.5% to $370 in 2025, influenced by price increases in North America and economic recovery in India and other Asia-Pacific regions [6][10]. - Smartphone revenue is projected to grow nearly 6% year-on-year in 2025, with a long-term CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2029, reaching $564 billion by 2029 [10]. Regional Insights - In North America, the ASP is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, while in China, it is projected to increase by 3.6%, primarily driven by high-end models [10][11]. - India’s ASP is expected to remain below $250 in 2025 but will gradually rise to $287 by 2029 due to the high-end trend [12]. Brand Performance - Apple is projected to maintain its position as a leader in high-end smartphone ASP, with an expected increase from $919 in 2025 to nearly $1000 by 2029 [10][12]. - Samsung's ASP is expected to remain stable, with flagship models impacting overall ASP but supported by foldable phones and GenAI integration [14]. - Huawei is strengthening its ASP growth in China, driven by its Mate and Pura series, as well as foldable phones [14]. Technology Impact - The introduction of GenAI smartphones is expected to increase the bill of materials (BoM) cost by $40-60 per device, initially raising prices but transitioning to value-driven ASP growth as AI features become more integrated [14][15]. - Foldable smartphones, although currently representing less than 2% of global shipments, are anticipated to elevate consumer perceptions of high-end products [15]. Conclusion - The global smartphone ASP outlook is optimistic, with stabilizing supply chains and diminishing tariff impacts, alongside the proliferation of high-end smartphones, GenAI, and foldable innovations driving gradual ASP increases [15].

未来两年，超过七成的终端设备有望实现智能化升级。 日前，国务院印发《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》（下文简称《意见》）为中国智能硬件产 业按下快进键。从PC、手机到家电，所有硬件正在被AI重新定义。 人工智能技术正从试验探索迈向价值创造阶段。国家发展改革委有关负责人指出，尽管人工智能引发经 济社会各领域深刻变革，但仍存在"对人工智能作用认识不一致、供需对接不畅、应用落地存在'最后一 公里'障碍等突出问题"。 《意见》提出了清晰的时间表：到2027年，新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超70%。到2030年超 过90%，到2035年我国全面步入智能经济和智能社会发展新阶段。 这意味着未来两年，超过七成的终端设备有望实现智能化升级，一个"一切硬件皆AI"的时代正在加速到 来。这场变革不仅预示着人机交互方式的变化，也意味着产品价值逻辑乃至产业生态正在得到全面重 构。 一位PC行业高管对第一财经记者表示，这很像25年前的PC行业。2000年前后，行业开启一键上网功能 的电脑，以此为界限，互联网给PC应用带来了完全的新天地。今年的AI PC也在经历着这样的一场变 革，并且更加猛烈。 AI已经拉动智能终端增长 过 ...