Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are causing a significant market split in the AI computing sector between the US and China, leading to a complete exit of Nvidia from the Chinese market, which presents a substantial opportunity for local AI chip companies like Cambricon [1][10]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Exit - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that the company's market share in China has dropped from 95% to 0%, indicating a complete withdrawal from the Chinese market [1][10]. - The US government's export restrictions on high-performance computing chips have severely impacted Nvidia's ability to operate in China, leading to the introduction of less capable products like the H20 platform, which has also faced declining demand [9][10][18]. Group 2: Opportunities for Local Companies - Cambricon, a Chinese AI chip company, has seen a dramatic increase in revenue, achieving 1.727 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 1332.52% [2][22]. - The absence of Nvidia has allowed Cambricon to become a major beneficiary in the Chinese AI computing market, positioning itself as a leading supplier [3][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and Growth - The timeline of AI computing development highlights a significant shift since 2016, when Nvidia began its deep engagement in the Chinese market, which has now reversed due to geopolitical factors [4][6][7]. - Cambricon's growth trajectory has been marked by significant funding rounds and partnerships, including its early collaboration with Huawei, which helped establish its reputation in the AI chip sector [11][12]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Market Position - Despite previous losses, Cambricon has turned profitable, reporting a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a significant turnaround from a net loss of 530 million yuan in the previous year [16][22]. - The company's stock has surged dramatically, reflecting market confidence in its future growth potential, with its share price reaching a historical high of 1595.88 yuan in August 2025 [16][18]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Huawei is emerging as a formidable competitor in the AI computing space, with plans to challenge Nvidia directly through its Ascend chip series and advanced computing clusters [20][21]. - The rapid technological advancements and market responsiveness of local companies like Cambricon are contributing to a robust domestic AI computing ecosystem, further diminishing Nvidia's prospects in China [19][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment around domestic computing power has been accumulating since late July, largely due to speculation about the H20's ability to ship successfully. The recent discussions around the H20 chip's security risks have raised concerns about its application and safety [6] - The U.S. export licenses for NVIDIA's H20 and AMD's MI308 chips to China come with revenue sharing and "backdoor" mechanisms, which limit their competitiveness in the Chinese market. This creates an opportunity for domestic computing power to gain market space [6] - The report emphasizes that the limitations of the H20 chip in terms of performance and energy efficiency align with domestic green development goals, suggesting that the restrictions on H20 will support the growth of domestic GPU markets [6] Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Since late July, there has been a buildup of sentiment regarding domestic computing power, driven by speculation about the H20 chip's market entry and safety concerns raised by Chinese authorities [6] Policy Impact - Recent U.S. policy changes have created a challenging environment for the H20 chip, with export licenses requiring revenue sharing and raising security concerns, which may hinder its market performance in China [6] Domestic Opportunities - The limitations imposed on the H20 chip are seen as a catalyst for domestic computing power to expand its market presence, with a focus on the need for advanced process capacity and the demand from internet companies [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1]. Core Insights - Strong performance from companies like Broadcom, Ciena, and Credo is driving optimism in the AI computing sector, with Broadcom reporting a 20% year-over-year revenue increase to $15 billion and a net profit of $5 billion, up 134% [3][16]. - Ciena's latest quarterly revenue reached $1.1 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, with its network platform business growing by 38% [4][17]. - Credo's revenue for the recent quarter was $170 million, reflecting a 26% quarter-over-quarter growth and a 180% year-over-year increase, with expectations for continued growth in the upcoming fiscal quarter [5][18]. - China Mobile's 2025 ordinary optical cable procurement results show a balanced bidding environment, with a total procurement scale of 3.21 million kilometers, indicating a rational competitive landscape in the domestic optical fiber and cable industry [6][19]. - The satellite internet sector is gaining traction, with companies like Starcloud planning to launch satellites equipped with advanced computing capabilities, highlighting the strategic importance of space computing in the coming years [8][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the robust demand for AI semiconductors, with Broadcom's AI revenue growing by 46% to $4.4 billion, and expectations for further growth to $5.1 billion in the next quarter [3][16]. - Ciena's focus on developing pluggable coherent optical modules is indicative of the strong demand for DCI network infrastructure in North America [4][17]. - Credo's expanding customer base and its competitive edge in AEC chip capabilities position it favorably for future growth opportunities [5][18]. Market Performance - The overall market saw an increase during the week of June 2-6, 2025, with the Shenwan Communication Index rising by 5.27% [9][21]. - The top-performing sectors included optical modules, liquid cooling, and connectors, with respective weekly gains of 11.9%, 8.8%, and 7.9% [9][21]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various segments, including: - AI computing modules: NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, etc. - Optical fiber and cable: Zhongtian Technology, Changfei Fiber Optics, Hengtong Optic-Electric, etc. - Satellite computing: Shanghai Hanxun, Tianyin Machinery, etc. [9][21].

对于英伟达而言，这一系列政策变动带来的打击堪称致命。据彭博社估计，此番折腾下来，英伟达 2025 年的收入预计将减少 140 亿至 180 亿美元。自 2022 年拜登政府实施半导体出口管制以来，英伟达 为了满足中国市场需求，专门设计了符合出口管制的 H20 芯片。 在全球科技产业的版图中，英伟达无疑占据着举足轻重的地位，尤其是在人工智能芯片领域，堪称行业 的领军者。然而，近期英伟达的命运却如坐过山车般起伏不定，而这一切的背后，特朗普政府反复无常 的政策成为了关键的 "搅局者"。 当地时间 4 月 15 日，英伟达发布通知称，美国政府于 9 日告知，该公司 H20 芯片出口到中国需要许可 证，此后又于 14 日告知，这些规定将无限期实施。这一消息犹如一颗重磅炸弹，瞬间在科技和金融市 场掀起轩然大波。通知提及，这一新规将影响该公司共计约 55 亿美元的季度费用，涉及 H20 的库存、 采购承诺和相关储备。消息一经传出，英伟达股价在盘后交易中大幅下跌逾 6%，市值直接蒸发了 1.3 万亿元。仅仅一夜之间，这家科技巨头的财富便遭受了重创，而这一切皆源于美国政府那令人捉摸不透 的政策变动。 回顾近期英伟达的相关新闻， ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in global artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly transforming the chip market, with Broadcom and Nvidia leading the charge, showcasing two distinct strategies: Broadcom's custom ASIC chips and Nvidia's multifunctional GPU solutions [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia reported a 78% increase in total revenue for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, reaching $39.3 billion, with data center revenue growing approximately 90% to $35 billion [1]. - Nvidia's challenges include high energy consumption and memory bandwidth limitations, particularly with its H100 chip [1]. Group 2: Broadcom's Strategy - Broadcom's AI-related revenue reached $4.1 billion in Q1, accounting for 28% of its total revenue of $14.6 billion [1]. - The company claims its ASICs improve efficiency in matrix operations by over 50% and reduce power consumption by about 30% compared to general accelerators [1]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - The AI chip market is increasingly divided into two segments: training and inference, with Nvidia holding an 80% market share in the training sector [2]. - Broadcom is positioning itself to capture the growing inference market, projected to reach $90 billion by 2027, leveraging its 30 years of ASIC design experience and partnerships with major tech companies like Google and Meta [2]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's strong CUDA developer ecosystem and strategic acquisitions, such as Mellanox, reinforce its market position [2]. - Nvidia's substantial R&D investments and $14.9 billion in free cash flow enable ongoing innovation [2].