全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变革 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变 革，健康意识觉醒与代际消费变迁成为核心驱动因素，酿啤酒与无酒精啤酒快速崛起，持续蚕食传统啤 酒市场份额。与此同时，软饮料销量保持稳健增长，对酒精饮料形成持续分流。中国企业国际化尚处初 级阶段，未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水市场反应，优先布局"一带一路"国家；采用合资模式借 力本土资源，设定准入门槛，避免激进并购。全球啤酒龙头的发展经验表明，运营效率是当前中国酒企 最可行的突破点。 海通国际主要观点如下： 国际化：模式选择与风险管控 国际化是突破本土市场天花板的关键路径，且国际化程度高的企业估值显著溢价。百威英博四次关键并 购成为全球霸主，喜力在70个国家市场份额排名前二，海外收入占比达78%。朝日通过收购欧洲与澳洲 业务，实现55%的海外收入占比；麒麟则因本土化不足与政治风险评估缺失，在巴西、缅甸等地投资遭 遇重大损失。 中国企业国际化尚处初级阶段，2024年啤酒出口仅占产量2%。未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水 市场反应，优先布局"一带一路"国家；采用合资模 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the Chinese staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanjing Beer among others [1]. Core Insights - The global beer industry is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from cyclical fluctuations to structural changes, driven by health consciousness and generational shifts in consumption [3][10]. - In China, the beer market faces unique challenges, including a transition to value-driven consumption, the failure of traditional distribution models, and intensified cross-industry competition [17][18]. Summary by Sections Global Beer Industry Transformation - Global beer sales are projected to decline by 1% in 2024, remaining below pre-pandemic levels, with significant shifts in consumer behavior noted, particularly among younger generations [10][12]. - Health awareness is leading to a reduction in alcohol consumption, with 49% of American consumers planning to drink less, a trend that is even more pronounced among Generation Z [12][17]. Strategic Directions for Chinese Beer Companies - **Leadership and Efficiency**: Establishing a dominant position in the local market is crucial for global expansion. Companies should focus on high-end product quality, optimizing cost structures, and building strong regional brands before expanding nationally [4][19]. - **Diversification**: Successful diversification should focus on product synergy, channel reuse, and brand extension, with a high success rate in expanding into related categories like low-alcohol and soft drinks [5][37]. - **Internationalization**: Companies should adopt a cautious approach to internationalization, starting with exports and partnerships in Belt and Road countries to mitigate risks [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Chinese beer companies should enhance operational efficiency, innovate product offerings tailored to local tastes, and pursue diversification and internationalization strategies that are risk-controlled [7][34]. - Key investment lines include operational improvements leading to value reassessment, beneficiaries of structural upgrades, and pioneers in emerging categories [7][34].

Core Insights - The 2025 festive season marks a significant cultural shift where individuals can confidently decline alcohol without facing judgment, with 72% of people feeling comfortable doing so [4][5][8] - Attitudes towards alcohol consumption are evolving, with 67% of respondents considering it outdated to question someone's choice not to drink, and 81% agreeing that no explanation is needed for declining alcohol at festive events [5][6] Global Attitude Shift - A global study indicates that social acceptance of low or no-alcohol options is rising, with 86% of participants comfortable choosing these alternatives at festive gatherings [8][9] - In various countries, including Brazil and Japan, a significant portion of the population now feels at ease opting for non-alcoholic beverages in social settings, with 67% in Brazil and 44% in Japan expressing comfort [9] Generational Trends - Gen Z is leading the movement towards moderation, with 30% planning to alternate between alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks during celebrations [6][10] - The shift in mindset is reflected in humorous responses to inquiries about not drinking, indicating a move from needing justification to embracing playful excuses [11] Company Positioning - Heineken, as a leader in the non-alcoholic beer market, is actively promoting moderation through campaigns and research, reinforcing the idea that choosing Heineken 0.0 represents an option rather than an omission [12][13] - The company aims to understand the social dynamics that foster shared experiences, emphasizing that great social moments do not require alcohol [12]

Core Insights - Heineken has launched the world's first season ticket for Formula 1, marking the extension of its decade-long partnership with the sport [1][4][10] - The season ticket provides access to all 24 races in the 2026 season, including travel and accommodation for the holder and a guest [5][6] - Heineken aims to enhance fan experiences and engagement through various initiatives, including F1 Fanzones and digital content [9][10] Company and Industry Summary - Heineken's renewed partnership with Formula 1 includes new Title Partnerships for races in Brazil, Madrid, and Silverstone, along with extensions for China and Las Vegas [9][10] - The global fanbase of Formula 1 is approximately 827 million, with significant growth among young adults and women [9] - Heineken's initiatives focus on responsible consumption, promoting its zero-alcohol product, Heineken 0.0, as part of its responsible drinking program [9][10] - The season ticket is crafted from carbon fibre, symbolizing speed and craftsmanship, and is designed to foster connections among fans [7][8]

Core Insights - Heineken® has launched the world's first season ticket for Formula 1, marking an expansion of its decade-long partnership with F1® [1][8] - The season ticket allows holders access to all 24 races in the 2026 season, including travel and accommodation [3][8] - Heineken® aims to enhance fan experiences and strengthen its connection with F1's growing global fan base [2][9] Company and Industry Summary - Heineken® will resume the Title Partnership of the local Grand Prix in Brazil starting in 2027, alongside new Title Partnerships in Madrid and Silverstone, and extensions in China and Las Vegas [2][9] - The partnership renewal is part of a multi-year deal that emphasizes fan engagement through F1® Fanzones, activations at F1® Arcades, and year-round promotions [9][10] - Research indicates that 67% of F1 fans believe the sport brings people together, with 84% preferring to experience races in person [6][9] - Heineken® will continue to promote responsible drinking through its Heineken 0.0 product during F1 events [9][10] - The CEO of Heineken® expressed excitement about the partnership's future, focusing on creating unique experiences for fans [10]

Core Insights - A third of UK workers have adjusted their working patterns to spend more time in the office over the past six months, indicating a shift towards more traditional work environments [1][3][12] - Heineken has creatively renamed pubs across the UK to 'The Office' to promote after-work socializing, highlighting the importance of these interactions for employee morale and productivity [2][3][10] Company Initiatives - Heineken is offering a free pint of Heineken or Heineken 0.0 to UK workers and their colleagues at over 1,000 pubs, aiming to encourage after-work gatherings [5][10] - The initiative is designed to enhance social connections among colleagues, with the offer available Monday to Friday from 4:59 PM throughout October [10][12] Economic Impact - After-work socializing is projected to contribute £28.9 billion to the UK economy in 2025, with every £10 spent in pubs generating an additional £13.40 for the economy [8][12] - The sector supports approximately 300,000 full-time equivalent jobs, underscoring its significance to the UK labor market [8] Worker Sentiment - Nearly half (46%) of hybrid workers feel they are missing out on social interactions with colleagues, which can impact workplace relationships [2][6] - A significant portion of workers (78%) believe after-work socializing is beneficial for networking, and 32% report having more honest conversations in these settings [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Heineken's stock rose by 4% following the announcement of a co-marketing deal with the upcoming film "F1: The Movie," indicating strong investor interest in the company's strategic marketing initiatives [1]. Group 1: Partnership Details - Heineken 0.0, the company's non-alcoholic beer, is an official partner of "F1: The Movie," produced by Apple's film unit and distributed by Warner Bros. Discovery, with a U.S. release date set for June 27 [2]. - The collaboration includes a TV ad campaign featuring co-star Damson Idris consuming Heineken 0.0, with Brad Pitt appearing in a supporting role [4]. - Heineken's involvement with F1-themed content is part of a long-term strategy, having been a sponsor of Formula One since 2016 [5]. Group 2: Marketing Strategy - The partnership aims to promote alcohol-free choices in social settings, as stated by Heineken's global head of brand, Nabil Nasser, emphasizing the importance of making such choices feel natural and relevant [6]. - The film's potential to attract a large audience aligns well with Heineken's international brand strategy, leveraging the global popularity of Formula One [7].

Core Insights - Heineken 0.0 has partnered with Apple Original Films for the upcoming release of F1 THE MOVIE, set to launch globally on June 25, 2025, with a campaign directed by Joseph Kosinski featuring stars Brad Pitt and Damson Idris [3][4][14] - The partnership emphasizes Heineken's long-standing association with Formula 1, having been a sponsor since 2016, and aims to challenge outdated perceptions of alcohol consumption in social settings [4][5][8] Company Overview - Heineken is recognized as the world's most international brewer, with a diverse portfolio of over 300 beer and cider brands, and a commitment to sustainability and innovation [11][12] - The company operates in more than 70 countries, employing over 85,000 individuals, and is focused on disciplined sales execution and cost management [12] Industry Context - The collaboration with F1 THE MOVIE reflects the cultural rise of Formula 1 and aims to position Heineken 0.0 at the center of this trend, promoting moderation and inclusive drinking choices [5][8] - The campaign will include exclusive content and behind-the-scenes access, engaging audiences in a broader conversation about changing social norms around alcohol consumption [7][8]