小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年业绩公告点评 25 年业绩创新高，汽车业务放量开启多元增长新阶段 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，存储涨价风险。 2026 年 04 月 01 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 31.76 港元 | | 分析师 | 崔琰 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110023 | | | 邮箱： | cuiyan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 方竞 | | 执业证书： S0590525120003 | | | 邮箱： | fangjing@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 蔡濠宇 | | 执业证书： S0590125110078 | | | 邮箱： | caihaoyu@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -40% -17% 7% 30% 2025/4 2025/9 2026/3 小米集团-W 恒生指数 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_For ...

Group 1: Company Analysis - Andeli - Andeli's subsidiary successfully acquired high-quality machinery from Yantai Haisheng Fruit Industry for RMB 30.8857 million, expanding its production capacity from 20 to 22 production lines and increasing its production bases from 10 to 11 [3] - The acquisition is expected to add approximately 10,000 tons of concentrated juice production capacity annually, enhancing Andeli's market position in the concentrated juice industry [3][4] - The company has ongoing expansion plans, including new production facilities in Xinjiang and Shaanxi, indicating a strategic focus on increasing market share [4] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Electrical Equipment - The global data center market is projected to grow from USD 242.72 billion in 2024 to USD 584.86 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.62%, driving demand for transformers and switches [5][6] - There is a significant backlog in transformer orders, with the U.S. expected to face a 30% shortfall in transformer demand by 2025, indicating a supply chain bottleneck [6][7] - China, contributing to 25% of global transformer exports, is well-positioned to benefit from the global shortage of transformers, as the U.S. and Europe increasingly rely on imports [7] Group 3: Company Analysis - Industrial Fulian - Industrial Fulian is positioned as a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure, benefiting from the global AI capital expenditure wave, with projected revenues of RMB 907.9 billion, RMB 1,471.8 billion, and RMB 1,837.2 billion for 2025-2027 [8][10] - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, with EPS estimates of RMB 1.78, RMB 2.90, and RMB 3.57 for the same period, supported by its strategic transition to high-end AI computing [8][10] - Industrial Fulian's collaboration with major cloud service providers and its comprehensive industry chain layout enhance its competitive edge in AI servers and high-speed switches [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 65.7 [7][13]. Core Insights - The automotive delivery volume is steadily increasing, indicating potential profitability at the operational level. The report anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive deliveries will approach 109,000 units in Q3, with an expected automotive sales revenue of approximately RMB 29.2 billion [3][11]. - The smartphone segment is facing pressure on gross margins due to rising storage costs, but the upcoming Xiaomi 17 series is expected to shift towards higher-end models, which may mitigate these impacts in Q4 [3][11]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) segment is projected to show stable revenue and gross profit contributions, with expected revenue growth of 6% year-on-year in Q3 [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are as follows: RMB 270.971 billion in 2023, RMB 365.932 billion in 2024, RMB 482.278 billion in 2025E, RMB 634.727 billion in 2026E, and RMB 750.562 billion in 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 35.0% in 2024 and 31.8% in 2025E [5][16]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are RMB 19.273 billion for 2023, RMB 27.235 billion for 2024, RMB 43.629 billion for 2025E, RMB 67.894 billion for 2026E, and RMB 83.319 billion for 2027E, with a significant growth of 126.3% in 2023 [5][16]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 21.2% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 20.9% in 2024, and then improving to 22.6% by 2025E [5][16]. Revenue Breakdown - Smartphone revenue is projected to decline slightly in the short term, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% expected in 2023, but a recovery is anticipated in subsequent years [14]. - IoT revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projections of RMB 134.976 billion by 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.7% [14]. - Automotive revenue is projected to reach RMB 106.647 billion by 2025E, with a significant year-on-year growth of 225.6% [14]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30x for Xiaomi's core business (smartphones, IoT, and internet services) for FY2025, reflecting a premium due to the synergy across hardware and AI potential [13][18]. - The automotive business is valued at a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 2.5x for FY2025, based on Xiaomi's established supply chain management capabilities and brand strength [13][18].