Core Viewpoint - Amgen (AMGN) is expected to exceed earnings expectations for Q2 2025, with consensus estimates for sales at $8.86 billion and earnings per share at $5.25, following a previous quarter where it beat earnings expectations by 17.8% [2][9]. Sales Performance - Strong volume growth from products such as Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto is anticipated to drive sales, although prices are expected to decline due to increased rebates [3][9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto is $478 million, $673 million, and $385 million, respectively [3]. Product Insights - Sales of RANKL antibodies, Prolia, and Xgeva are expected to benefit from volume growth, despite price declines. However, the expiration of patents for Prolia and Xgeva in the U.S. in February 2025 may lead to significant sales erosion in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - Newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are projected to contribute positively to top-line growth, with consensus estimates of $320 million and $102 million, respectively [6]. Competitive Landscape - Kyprolis is facing competitive pressure, which likely affected its volume growth in Q1 and is expected to continue in Q2, with consensus estimates for sales at $370 million [7]. - Enbrel sales are likely to decline due to lower prices, while Otezla is expected to see gains from volume growth, with estimates of $534 million for Otezla and $805 million for Enbrel [8]. Recent Developments - Sales of rare disease drugs from the acquisition of Horizon are expected to improve in Q2, following lower-than-expected sales in Q1 due to inventory changes [10]. - New biosimilars launched, such as Wezlana and Pavblu, are anticipated to drive sales growth, although fluctuations in quarterly sales are expected [12][13]. Earnings Surprise History - Amgen has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 8.34% over the last four quarters and a stock increase of 18.4% year-to-date compared to a 1.9% increase in the industry [14]. Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a likely earnings beat for Amgen, with an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [15][17].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of over $45 million for Q1 2025, representing a 46% increase from $31 million in the same period last year [33][34] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 was $1.33, up from $1.20 in Q1 2024 [42] - Royalty revenue increased by 44% year-over-year, totaling $27.5 million in Q1 2025 [34][35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Varonis' O2VARE reported net sales of $71.3 million in Q1 2025, nearly double the previous quarter's results [37] - Trevyr's Filspari achieved first-quarter U.S. sales of $56 million, representing over 180% year-over-year growth [38] - Merck's Capaxib reported Q1 sales of $107 million, more than double the prior quarter [39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has over $200 million in cash and investments, with no debt and access to a $125 million revolving credit facility [8] - The current biopharmaceutical financing environment is challenging, leading to increased demand for royalty financing [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver profitable and compounding growth through a diversified portfolio of royalty assets [14][16] - A focus on acquiring late-stage development assets and commercial assets with superior risk-reward profiles is central to the company's strategy [15][17] - The company anticipates long-term royalty revenue growth to meet or exceed a 22% compound annual growth rate [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future prospects, citing a strong start to 2025 and the potential for significant growth drivers [44] - The company is navigating short-term disruptions due to policy changes but remains focused on delivering clinical value [50][56] - Management noted that the current environment presents opportunities for mergers and acquisitions in the biotech sector [49] Other Important Information - The company executed a strategic transaction to merge its subsidiary, Pylthos Therapeutics, with Channel Therapeutics, raising $50 million in equity capital [22] - ZELSUVME, an FDA-approved therapy for molluscum contagiosum, is positioned as a first-line treatment option [29][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current environment for the space and special situations - Management noted an increase in special situations due to difficult financing markets for biotech companies, presenting good opportunities for the company [48][50] Question: Impact of most favored nation's status for drug pricing - Management indicated that while there may be short-term disruptions, the long-term outlook remains positive as most partners focus on the U.S. market [55][58] Question: Investment capacity and opportunities - Management expects to invest above the normal pace this year due to the number of good opportunities, while maintaining diversification limits [76][78] Question: Launch timing for ZELSUVME - The launch is expected to be independent of the merger closing, with preparations already underway [83] Question: Revenue trends for the year - Management anticipates a balanced revenue cadence throughout the year, reiterating guidance for Captisol and royalty revenue [88]

Core Viewpoint - Amgen is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, with expectations of strong sales driven by volume growth in key products, although pricing pressures may impact overall revenue [1][4]. Sales Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales is $7.96 billion, with earnings expected at $4.16 per share [1]. - Specific sales estimates for key products include Evenity at $406 million, Repatha at $616 million, Kyprolis at $381 million, and Blincyto at $333 million [2]. Patent Expiration Impact - Patents for Prolia and Xgeva expired in February 2025 in the U.S., leading to anticipated significant sales erosion due to biosimilar competition, with estimates of $990 million for Prolia and $542 million for Xgeva [3]. New Product Contributions - Newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to contribute positively to top-line growth, alongside the successful launch of Imdelltra for advanced small cell lung cancer [4]. Declining Sales of Established Products - Sales of Enbrel and Otezla are projected to decline due to price reductions and historical trends related to benefit plan changes and increased co-pay expenses [5][6]. Biosimilars Performance - Increased competition is expected to negatively impact revenues from oncology biosimilars, while sales of Amjevita/Amgevita are likely to have increased [7]. - Amgen launched biosimilars Wezlana and Pavblu, with investors keenly observing their sales performance [8]. Operating Margin Expectations - Amgen anticipates the lowest operating margin of the year at around 42% for the first quarter, with R&D costs expected to rise while SG&A costs as a percentage of sales are projected to decline [9]. Earnings Surprise History - Amgen has a strong earnings surprise history, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 5.23% [10]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Amgen, with an Earnings ESP of -0.05% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [12].

Industry Overview - The first-quarter earnings season for the drug and biotech sector is underway, with major companies like Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Amgen, Biogen, and Regeneron set to announce results [1] - Johnson & Johnson and Merck have reported results, both exceeding first-quarter estimates for earnings and sales, while Sanofi had mixed results, beating earnings estimates but missing sales [1] Earnings Trends - As of April 23, 15% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 33.8% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with 77.8% surpassing estimates for both earnings and revenues [3] - Year-over-year earnings increased by 4.7%, and revenues rose by 9.4% [3] - Overall, first-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are expected to increase by 35%, while sales are projected to rise by 7.8% compared to the previous year [3] Company Performance Pfizer (PFE) - Pfizer has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 44.16% [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $13.88 billion and 64 cents per share, respectively [6] - Non-COVID operational revenues are driving growth, supported by products like Vyndaqel, Padcev, and Eliquis, despite a decline in sales of COVID products [7] Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly has had mixed performance, exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 8.47% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is $12.62 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively [8] - Growth is expected to be driven by demand for FDA-approved tirzepatide medicines, although sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations [9][10] Amgen (AMGN) - Amgen has shown strong performance, beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 5.23% [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $7.96 billion and $4.15 per share, respectively [11] - Product sales are expected to be driven by strong volume growth, although prices may decline due to higher rebates [12] Biogen (BIIB) - Biogen has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 11.80% [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is $2.23 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively [13] - Lower sales of multiple sclerosis drugs are likely to be offset by revenues from new drugs [14] Regeneron (REGN) - Regeneron has had mixed results, surpassing earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 3.23% [16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $3.28 billion and $8.43 per share, respectively [17] - Sales of Eylea are expected to have declined due to competition, but sales of Eylea HD and Dupixent are likely to have surged [18][19]