Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish outlook [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increases, small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs, demand growth is limited, and market pressure is high. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. Pay attention to the premium - narrowing market. The macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,350 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2509 contract is 13,965 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the price of the LH2511 contract is 14,230 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the supply pressure is high due to the increase in the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms and the forced pig - holding of small - scale farmers, while demand growth is limited. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb the supply [3] - **Contract Features**: The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing [3] - **Market Structure**: There is a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 6,369 lots (up 41 lots), and the open interest is 21,908 lots (down 2,631 lots); the trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 26,871 lots (down 3,086 lots), and the open interest is 60,882 lots (down 1,419 lots); the trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 9,819 lots (down 928 lots), and the open interest is 44,835 lots (up 218 lots) [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 95 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2511 contract is - 195 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2601 contract is 30 yuan/ton, the spread between the LH2509 and LH2511 contracts is - 350 yuan/ton, and the spread between the LH2511 and LH2601 contracts is - 545 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market performance of live pigs is below expectations, with near - term weakness. The market pressure is high due to factors such as the limited increase in demand and the planned increase in group slaughter volume in August. The September contract is expected to be mainly weak, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 13,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,055 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20; the live pig 2511 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35; the live pig 2601 contract is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 31,356 lots, an increase of 2311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,971 lots, a decrease of 4228 from the previous day; the live pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 24,661 lots, an increase of 7289 from the previous day, and an open interest of 51,204 lots, an increase of 583 from the previous day; the live pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 13,759 lots, a decrease of 3042 from the previous day, and an open interest of 40,395 lots, an increase of 180 from the previous day [2] - **Price differences**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 120; the live pig 2511 contract basis is 580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135; the live pig 2601 contract basis is 250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65; the 9 - 11 spread is 205 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3] 3. Market Logic - The market had a consistent expectation of price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling were below expectations. There is panic among retail farmers and secondary fattening groups. The market pressure is high in August, and the September contract is expected to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, presenting a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation [4]

Group 1 - Understanding market logic is essential for stock index futures operations, as it allows for informed decision-making rather than following trends blindly [1] - Knowledge accumulation is crucial before trading, including contract rules, price formation mechanisms, and trading terminology, which helps reduce blind spots in operations [1] - Choosing the right trading time based on personal energy and focus can enhance precision in trading, aligning personal state with market rhythm [1] Group 2 - Establishing a personal analysis framework is important, whether focusing on technical indicators or capital flow analysis, to maintain consistent trading strategies [1] - Managing trading psychology is a hidden competitive advantage, enabling rational assessment of market conditions without being swayed by emotions [1] - Flexibly adjusting strategies in response to market changes demonstrates operational wisdom, ensuring trades remain aligned with actual market conditions [1] Group 3 - Monitoring price differences between contracts can reveal opportunities, as these variations often reflect market expectations for the future [3] - Maintaining a habit of recording trades, including reasons, processes, and outcomes, facilitates growth through regular review and analysis [3] Group 4 - Engaging in discussions with peers can generate new ideas and perspectives, breaking conventional thinking and uncovering overlooked details [4] - Maintaining a respectful attitude towards the market is vital, as it encourages careful risk and opportunity assessment, leading to steadier progress [4] - The process of trading stock index futures is characterized by continuous learning, practice, and reflection, contributing to professional development [4]

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 的市场化意识,也有很强的国际 视野,会对自己的投资负责,我 们不要去担忧他们。只要把环境 改善了、把法治改善了,尊重他 们,他们就能做出理性的选择。 FK4E 基石资本董事长 创始合伙人 66 大胆资本和长期资本的本质是社 会信用,资本市场是社会信用的 更高等级的形式,没有这种社会 信用的长期坚定的相信,大胆资 本和耐心资本并不能靠说服和教 育来形成。 8 99 四大学 毅达资本 董事长 66 从我过去20年的投资经验来看, 做投资一定要放长眼光,千万不 要被眼前的变化和黑遮住双眼。 投资就是长时间。这一轮的关税 战,我相信凭中国人的智慧能够 走出来。 99 推动世界科技的创新变成了双因 子,中国的科技和产业也有双因 子影响:一个是美国,一个是自 身,因此有两个逻辑在推动着我们 所说的孵化和投资,一个是市场 逻辑,一个是国家逻辑。 秒业本 华业天成 创始合伙人 中国是全球最大的工业制造国, 这一波智能科技将使工业连接从 有线逐渐升级为5G等无线连接方 式,规模引入工业AI专用算力, 配合柔性生产和软硬件升级,将 是一次非常大的变革性机会。 99 66 FE HIT ...