交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • PP概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳，随着丙烷价格强 势，PDH利润持续下滑。供需端，塑编整体转入淡季需求回落，管材需求尚可。当前PP交割品现 货价6250（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-6，升贴水比例-0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存53.7万吨（-2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： P ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The US cancelled some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation on China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year. OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply - demand imbalance to oversupply in November 12, causing oil prices to fall. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it starts to decline in some areas, and the demand for other films is mainly based on rigid needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6860 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Basis - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. Main Position - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues but starts to decline in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [5]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, while the demand for pipes is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6420 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Basis - The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 14, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is neutral [6]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. Main Position - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, and the demand for pipes is picking up, with a moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [7]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6860 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6835 (2), etc. [8] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6420 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6400 (-34), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 12017 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), etc. [8] - PP: The warehouse receipt is 15733 (-29), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), etc. [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 1869.5, and it increased to 4319.5 in 2025E with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 2245.5, and it is expected to reach 4906 in 2025E with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with expectations of a volatile market due to factors such as OPEC's continuous production increase, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, and its market is expected to be volatile considering factors like weak downstream demand and OPEC's production increase [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. The agricultural film is in the off - season, packaging film downstream is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -35, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new production capacity release and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI, and OPEC is increasing production. The downstream demand for PP is in the off - season, with weak demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 120, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.7%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 tons (-1.5), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Off - season for agricultural films, weak downstream demand for packaging films, many enterprises reducing loads, overall downstream demand weak, new production capacity pressure remains. Current LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), overall fundamental is bearish [4]. Other Indicators - Basis: LLDPE 2509 contract basis is 48, premium ratio is 0.7%, bullish [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 500,000 tons (-0.5), neutral [4]. - Disk: LLDPE main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - Main Position: LLDPE main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [4]. - Expectation: The plastic main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, production pressure remains, industrial inventory is neutral. PE is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [6] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [6] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Downstream demand is in the off - season, demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Current PP delivery spot price is 7250 (-0), overall fundamental is bearish [7]. Other Indicators - Basis: PP 2509 contract basis is 172, premium ratio is 2.4%, bullish [7]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 570,000 tons (-1.5), neutral [7]. - Disk: PP main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [7]. - Main Position: PP main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak, industrial inventory is neutral. PP is expected to fluctuate today [7]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [9] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [9] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [9] Group 4: Market Data LLDPE - Spot prices: LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), LL import US dollar price is 840 (0), LL import conversion price is 7393 (-4), LL import price difference is - 63 (+54) [10]. - Futures prices: L01 is 7243 (-19), L05 is 7221 (-27), L09 is 7282 (-2) [10]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 500,000 tons, social inventory is 507,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 5831 (+200) [10]. PP - Spot prices: PP delivery spot price is 7250 (0), PP import US dollar price is 885 (0), PP import conversion price is 7781 (-4), PP import price difference is - 531 (+4) [10]. - Futures prices: PP01 is 7042 (+1), PP05 is 7032 (-9), PP09 is 7078 (+4) [10]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive factory inventory is 570,000 tons, social inventory is 252,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 7292 (-100) [10] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. showed different trends. For example, capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. also changed. Capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated May 21, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain in the medium - to - long term. The supply - demand situation has seasonal characteristics, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Tariff games are a major influencing factor. Short - term tariff relaxation has led to a rush - to - work situation among foreign - trade enterprises, while it's the off - season for agricultural film. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 7440 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 202, with a premium ratio of 2.8%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 58.4 tons (-5.2), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - work among foreign - trade enterprises. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors are new capacity launches and weak crude oil prices. The main logics are new capacity launches and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official and Caixin PMIs both declined. Tariff games are significant. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - work among foreign - trade enterprises. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 7300 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 222, with a premium ratio of 3.1%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 60.4 tons (-7.2), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - work among foreign - trade enterprises. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral [6] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; the bearish factor is weak crude oil prices. The main logics are new capacity launches and tariff policies [7] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery goods is 7440 (unchanged), the 09 - contract price is 7238 (+2), the basis is 202 (-2), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 58.4 tons [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery goods is 7300 (unchanged), the 09 - contract price is 7078 (-15), the basis is 222 (+15), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 60.4 tons [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with varying growth rates. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]