交银国际研究 公司更新 | 汽车 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 71.70 | 港元 | 80.84 | +12.7% | | | 理想汽车 (2015 HK) | | | | | | 3 季度受召回拖累转亏，供应链瓶颈限制短期反弹，静待 2026 年新品 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 资料来源： FactSet 11/24 3/25 7/25 11/25 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2015 HK MSCI中国指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 128.70 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 68.65 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 237,697.31 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 9.28 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (23.68) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 98.91 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocom ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto Inc. reported a significant decline in vehicle deliveries and financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, reflecting challenges in the new energy vehicle market and operational difficulties. Operating Highlights - Total deliveries for Q3 2025 were 93,211 vehicles, a 39.0% year-over-year decrease [2][3] - The company had 542 retail stores in 157 cities and 3,420 supercharging stations in operation as of September 30, 2025 [3] Financial Highlights - Vehicle sales amounted to RMB 25.9 billion (US$ 3.6 billion) in Q3 2025, down 37.4% from RMB 41.3 billion in Q3 2024 and down 10.4% from RMB 28.9 billion in Q2 2025 [4][13] - Total revenues were RMB 27.4 billion (US$ 3.8 billion), a decrease of 36.2% year-over-year [4][13] - Gross profit was RMB 4.5 billion (US$ 627.8 million), down 51.6% from RMB 9.2 billion in Q3 2024 [4][13] - Net loss was RMB 624.4 million (US$ 87.7 million), compared to a net income of RMB 2.8 billion in Q3 2024 [4][24] Cost and Margin Analysis - Cost of sales was RMB 22.9 billion (US$ 3.2 billion), a decrease of 32.0% from RMB 33.6 billion in Q3 2024 [18] - Vehicle margin was 15.5% in Q3 2025, down from 20.9% in Q3 2024 [4][18] - Gross margin was 16.3%, compared to 21.5% in Q3 2024 [4][18] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses were RMB 5.6 billion (US$ 793.1 million), a decrease of 2.5% from RMB 5.8 billion in Q3 2024 [4][18] - Research and development expenses increased by 15.0% year-over-year to RMB 3.0 billion (US$ 417.8 million) [18] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Net cash used in operating activities was RMB 7.4 billion (US$ 1.0 billion) in Q3 2025, compared to RMB 11.0 billion net cash provided in Q3 2024 [7][24] - Free cash flow was negative RMB 8.9 billion (US$ 1.3 billion) in Q3 2025 [7][24] - Cash position was RMB 98.9 billion (US$ 13.9 billion) as of September 30, 2025 [24] Recent Developments - The company launched the Li i6, a new battery electric SUV, in September 2025 [9] - In October 2025, Li Auto opened its first overseas authorized retail store in Tashkent, Uzbekistan [10] - The Li i8 achieved the highest score in the China-Automobile Health Index assessment [11] Management Commentary - The CEO highlighted strong momentum in the BEV portfolio and confidence in achieving long-term strategic objectives despite market challenges [12] - The CFO noted operational resilience with a gross margin of 20.4% when excluding recall costs [12]

Company Performance - Li Auto delivered 36,279 vehicles in June 2025, bringing second-quarter deliveries to 111,074 and cumulative deliveries to 1,337,810 as of June 30, 2025 [1][2] Market Position - Li Auto maintained its position as China's best-selling domestic automotive brand in the RMB200,000 and above mid-to-high-end market for two consecutive years [2] - The recently launched Li MEGA Home exceeded sales expectations, becoming the top seller among MPVs priced above RMB500,000 [2] Product Lineup and Future Plans - Upcoming launches include the six-seat battery electric family SUV Li i8 in July and the five-seat battery electric family SUV Li i6 in September, expanding the product lineup to four extended-range electric SUVs, one flagship MPV, and two high-voltage battery electric SUVs [2] - The company is upgrading its sales system to enhance operational efficiency across all vehicle models [2] Retail and Service Network - As of June 30, 2025, the company had 530 retail stores in 151 cities, 511 servicing centers, and authorized body and paint shops in 222 cities [3] - The company operates 2,851 supercharging stations with 15,655 charging stalls in China [3] Company Mission and Vision - Li Auto's mission is to create a mobile home and happiness, focusing on innovations in product, technology, and business model to provide safe, convenient, and comfortable products and services [4] - The company aims to build emotional connections with users through sponsorships in art and sports, enhancing brand value [3]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto Inc. has revised its delivery outlook for Q2 2025, expecting to deliver approximately 108,000 vehicles, down from a previous estimate of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles, due to a temporary impact from a sales system upgrade [1] Company Overview - Li Auto Inc. is a leader in China's new energy vehicle market, focusing on designing, developing, manufacturing, and selling premium smart electric vehicles [2] - The company's mission is to create a mobile home and happiness, providing families with safe, convenient, and comfortable products and services [2] - Li Auto is a pioneer in commercializing extended-range electric vehicles in China while also developing battery electric vehicle platforms [2] - The company began volume production in November 2019 and has a diverse model lineup, including Li MEGA, Li L9, Li L8, Li L7, and Li L6 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto Inc. will report its unaudited financial results for Q1 2025 on May 29, 2025, before the U.S. market opens, followed by an earnings conference call on the same day [1]. Company Overview - Li Auto Inc. is a leader in China's new energy vehicle market, focusing on designing, developing, manufacturing, and selling premium smart electric vehicles [4]. - The company's mission is to create a mobile home and happiness, emphasizing safety, convenience, and comfort in its products and services [4]. - Li Auto is recognized for successfully commercializing extended-range electric vehicles in China while also developing battery electric vehicle platforms [4]. - The company began volume production in November 2019 and has a diverse model lineup, including Li MEGA, Li L9, Li L8, Li L7, and Li L6 [4]. Conference Call Details - Participants wishing to join the earnings conference call must complete online registration prior to the scheduled start time [2]. - A replay of the conference call will be available until June 5, 2025, through various dial-in numbers [3].

Core Insights - Li Auto Inc. delivered 33,939 vehicles in April 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 31.6%, with cumulative deliveries reaching 1,260,675 as of April 30, 2025 [1] - The company has maintained its position as the sales leader for SUVs priced above RMB200,000 for three consecutive quarters, achieving the highest market share in multiple SUV segments [2] - Li Auto launched new models including Li MEGA Home and Li L6 at Auto Shanghai 2025, with Li MEGA Home accounting for over 90% of order intake for its models, indicating strong consumer endorsement [3] Company Overview - Li Auto Inc. is a leader in China's new energy vehicle market, focusing on the design, development, manufacturing, and sales of premium smart electric vehicles [5] - The company has a mission to create a mobile home and happiness for families, emphasizing innovations in product, technology, and business models [5] - As of April 30, 2025, Li Auto operates 500 retail stores and 500 servicing centers across 151 cities, along with 2,267 supercharging stations equipped with 12,340 charging stalls in China [4]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto Inc. is set to hold its annual general meeting (AGM) on May 30, 2025, to discuss proposed resolutions supported by the board of directors [1][2]. Group 1: AGM Details - The AGM will take place at 10:00 a.m. Beijing time at Oriental Plaza, Beijing, China [1]. - Shareholders of ordinary shares and holders of American depositary shares (ADSs) as of April 25, 2025, are entitled to attend and vote at the AGM [2]. Group 2: Financial Reporting - Li Auto has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Li Auto Inc. is a leader in China's new energy vehicle market, focusing on premium smart electric vehicles [4]. - The company aims to create safe, convenient, and comfortable products and services through innovation in technology and business models [4]. - Li Auto has successfully commercialized extended-range electric vehicles and is also developing battery electric vehicle platforms [4]. - The current model lineup includes various family-oriented SUVs and MPVs, with plans for further product expansion [4].

Core Insights - Li Auto Inc. has released its 2024 Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) report, showcasing its commitment to sustainability and corporate governance [1][2] - The company emphasizes its focus on operational compliance, innovation, low-carbon operations, employee well-being, and community engagement as part of its sustainability strategy [2] Company Overview - Li Auto is a leader in China's new energy vehicle market, specializing in the design, development, manufacturing, and sale of premium smart electric vehicles [4] - The company's mission is to create a mobile home and happiness, aiming to provide safe, convenient, and comfortable products and services through technological innovations [4] - Li Auto has successfully commercialized extended-range electric vehicles in China and is also developing battery electric vehicle platforms [4] - The current model lineup includes various flagship family SUVs and MPVs, with plans for further product expansion to reach a broader user base [4]

Core Insights - Li Auto Inc. delivered 36,674 vehicles in March 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 26.5%, with first-quarter deliveries totaling 92,864, up 15.5% year-over-year [1][2] - The company has maintained its position as the sales leader among Chinese automotive brands in the RMB200,000 and above NEV market for twelve consecutive months [2] - Li Auto's cumulative deliveries reached 1,226,736 as of March 31, 2025 [1] Company Developments - The Li L series is a key contributor to the company's profitability and is on track to deliver its 1,000,000th vehicle soon [2] - The new Li MEGA Ultra, featuring upgraded autonomous driving configurations, is open for reservations, with further updates expected at Auto Shanghai 2025 [2] - Li Auto became the world's first automaker to commit to open-sourcing its proprietary OS for smart vehicles, Li Halo OS [2] Infrastructure and Retail Expansion - As of March 31, 2025, the company operated 500 retail stores in 150 cities, 502 servicing centers, and authorized body and paint shops in 225 cities [3] - The company has 2,045 supercharging stations with 11,038 charging stalls in operation across China [3] Company Overview - Li Auto Inc. is a leader in China's new energy vehicle market, focusing on premium smart electric vehicles [4] - The company aims to create safe, convenient, and comfortable products and services through innovations in product, technology, and business model [4] - Li Auto has successfully commercialized extended-range electric vehicles in China while also developing battery electric vehicle platforms [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, total revenues reached RMB 44.3 billion (approximately US$ 6.1 billion), up 6.1% year-over-year and 3.3% quarter-over-quarter [27] - Full year total revenues amounted to RMB 144.5 billion [11] - Gross profit for Q4 was RMB 9 billion (approximately US$ 1.2 billion), down 8.3% year-over-year and 2.8% quarter-over-quarter [28] - Net income in Q4 was RMB 3.5 billion (approximately US$ 484 million), down 38.6% year-over-year but up 25.3% quarter-over-quarter [32] - Cash on hand as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 112.8 billion (approximately US$ 15.5 billion) [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vehicle sales in Q4 contributed RMB 42.6 billion (approximately US$ 5.8 billion), up 5.6% year-over-year and 3.2% quarter-over-quarter [27] - Vehicle margin in Q4 was 19.7%, compared to 22.7% in the same period last year [28] - R&D expenses in Q4 were RMB 2.4 billion (approximately US$ 329.9 million), down 31% year-over-year [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, Li Auto delivered over 158,000 vehicles in Q4, setting a new quarterly record [9] - Full year deliveries exceeded 500,000 units, making Li Auto the first emerging NEV brand to reach this milestone [10] - The NEV penetration rate in China reached 45.9% for the full year, up 12 percentage points year-over-year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to launch two pure electric SUVs in 2025, the Li i8 in July and the Li i6 in the second half of the year [39] - Focus on enhancing R&D investments, particularly in autonomous driving and artificial intelligence, with R&D investments exceeding RMB 11 billion in 2024 [13] - Expansion of the supercharging network, aiming for 2,500 stations by the launch of Li i8 and 4,000 by the end of 2025 [19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects continued growth in 2024, targeting 88,000 to 93,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1 [12] - The company anticipates a year-over-year increase in deliveries despite a challenging competitive landscape [46] - Management believes that the market will transition from competing for growth to competing for market share, emphasizing brand recognition [66] Other Important Information - The company has established an overseas expansion department and opened R&D centers in Munich, Germany [22][86] - Li MEGA has been a top seller in its segment, with expected annual sales between 10,000 and 15,000 units [81] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the latest launch timing and highlights of new BEV models? - The company plans to launch the Li i8 in July and the Li i6 in the second half of 2025, focusing on user experience and delivery [39] Question: How does the company view sales growth against competition? - The strategy includes product upgrades, expanding the sales network, and enhancing marketing practices [46] Question: What is the scale of AI-related investment in the coming years? - Investments in AI will see substantial growth, primarily funded by cash from operations, focusing on developing capabilities in autonomous driving [54] Question: What is the outlook for the auto and EV industry in 2026? - The NEV penetration rate is expected to increase, with competition shifting towards market share and brand recognition becoming crucial [66] Question: What is the first quarter gross margin guidance? - The expected Q1 vehicle gross margin is around 19% due to seasonal factors and sales promotions [75] Question: What is the long-term plan for internationalization? - The company aims to expand its overseas market presence, focusing on branding, marketing, and after-sales service [86]