Core Viewpoint - Tesla is preparing for a potential significant decline in quarterly revenue, with expectations of an 11% year-over-year drop to $22.6 billion in Q2, marking the largest quarterly sales decline since 2012 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive business, which contributed 90% of revenue and 94% of gross profit in 2024, is currently facing challenges, with Q2 deliveries reported at 384,000 vehicles, a 13% year-over-year decline [4] - Deutsche Bank predicts Q2 revenue will reach $22.2 billion, driven by a higher mix of the new Model Y Juniper, leading to a 4% increase in average selling price (ASP) to $41,600 [4] - Gross margin for the automotive business, excluding carbon credits, is expected to improve from 12.5% in Q1 to approximately 14% in Q2, with overall GAAP gross margin projected at 16.9%, surpassing market expectations of 16.4% [4] - Barclays forecasts a 10% decline in delivery volume for 2025, with consensus EPS expectations dropping from over $3.20 to $1.84 [6] Group 2: Future Outlook - Tesla's delivery target for 2025 is set cautiously at 1.58 million units, lower than the market expectation of 1.62 million, primarily due to delays in the low-cost Model Q [6] - The upcoming Model Y long-wheelbase version is expected to contribute approximately 50,000 units in Q4 [9] - The Robotaxi business is seen as a new growth engine, with plans to expand the fleet to over 1,000 vehicles in the next 6 to 9 months, targeting cities like San Francisco and Phoenix [10][11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Tesla's stock price is heavily reliant on investor confidence in its long-term vision, with approximately 95% of its current valuation tied to future potential rather than current financial performance [3] - Despite the challenges, Tesla's stock remains highly valued at 142 times expected profits, compared to the Nasdaq index at 100 times [7] Group 4: Policy and Competitive Landscape - The potential end of the EV tax credit in the U.S. by September 2025 could lead to a significant drop in sales, as about 20% of Tesla's global sales benefit from this subsidy [12] - Competition from Xiaomi's SU7 is noted, although Tesla's Model 3 sales in China have not been significantly impacted since the SU7 launch [4]

Core Insights - Tesla's shares have decreased by 20% this year, contrasting with a 5% increase in the S&P 500, primarily due to poor financial results and market share losses [1][5] - CEO Elon Musk's behavior has negatively impacted the brand's reputation, alienating both political parties [2][3] Financial Performance - Tesla's deliveries have declined in three of the last five quarters, with automotive revenue falling by 20% and non-GAAP net income dropping by 40% in Q1 2025 [5][6] - Consensus earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 25% and 16%, respectively, in the last three months, leading to a projected annual earnings growth of only 14% through 2026 [8] Market Share Dynamics - Tesla's U.S. market share has decreased by 9 percentage points, European market share by 8 percentage points, and Chinese market share by 3 percentage points [6] - Despite a 38% increase in global electric car sales through April, Tesla is losing ground in the market [7] Autonomous Ride-Sharing Potential - Tesla has launched a limited autonomous ride-sharing service, with initial operations in Austin, Texas [9] - Analysts estimate significant future revenue potential from robotaxi services, with projections of $115 billion to $700 billion in revenue by 2040, translating to potential profits of $50 billion to $120 billion [11] Strategic Outlook - The shift from low-margin electric car manufacturing to high-margin robotaxi services could enhance Tesla's profitability [12] - Elon Musk envisions Tesla as potentially the most valuable company globally as it monetizes its full self-driving platform and robotics products [12]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla Inc has experienced a significant earnings miss in the first quarter, landing among the S&P 500's biggest EPS disappointments with a 25.3% shortfall from expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Tesla's first quarter earnings missed expectations by 25.3%, placing it alongside underperformers like Norwegian Cruise Line and First Solar, contrasting with its usual performance as an industry leader [1][2]. - The stock has seen a 22% decline year-to-date, trading near $293, which is below its eight-day and 20-day simple moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The 50-day simple moving average is at $292.32, suggesting a potential support level, while the MACD remains positive and the RSI is around neutral, indicating a lack of strong conviction in the stock's movement [4]. - A deeper dip below the $290–295 range could signal further technical challenges for the stock [3][4]. Group 3: Factors Behind the Miss - The earnings miss is attributed to production issues, price cuts affecting margins, and concerns regarding demand amid increasing competition in the EV market and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term earnings miss, Tesla's long-term narrative remains positive, with growth in its energy business, ongoing global expansion, and potential for recurring software and Full Self-Driving (FSD) revenue to improve margins [5]. Group 5: Future Considerations for Investors - Investors are advised to monitor Tesla's second quarter guidance, any adjustments in pricing strategy, and the stock's ability to maintain support around the $290–295 range [6][7]. - A shift in narrative towards margin improvement and software revenue could lead to a rebound in the stock despite current uncertainties [7].

特斯拉(TSLA.US)于北京时间4月22日凌晨美股盘后发布了2025年第一季报，交出了一个看似起来又是很差，但实际上却隐藏着改善信息的业绩。来看核 心信息： 1. 总收入端低于市场预期：本季度总收入端193.4亿，虽然明显差于老旧的市场预期，但相比海豚君看到的特斯拉销量发布后大行更新的200亿上下的汽车 收入，算是稍低一点点。 2. 但在最核心的卖车业务上，本季度卖车毛利率要超市场预期：在市场最关心的纯卖车业务毛利率上(去除碳积分影响后)，本季度达到12.5%，虽然环比 上季度下滑1.1个百分点，但由于一季度的销量低点，叠加由于Model Y Juniper发布导致的停产影响，市场对于下滑的卖车毛利率早有预期，市场对于本 季度纯卖车毛利率的一致预期在12.2%，而海豚君看到的部分大行更为悲观，预期已经降低到11%-12%左右，有些甚至都在个位数，所以在纯卖车毛利率 上，特斯拉本季度表现是要超出市场预期的。 3. 卖车单价本季度基本稳住：从卖车的单价端来看，一季度，特斯拉每卖一辆车的收入(不含碳积分与汽车租赁销售)是4万美元，相比上季度还要3.98万美 元还要环比提升200美元，卖车单价在一季度低谷期基本稳住 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report appears disappointing at first glance, but it contains underlying improvements, particularly in vehicle sales margins and pricing stability [1][5]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $19.34 billion, falling short of market expectations but slightly better than revised estimates of around $20 billion for automotive revenue [1][12]. - Automotive revenue reached $14.2 billion, with actual vehicle sales (excluding carbon credits) at $12.9 billion, slightly below the latest market expectations [12][15]. Vehicle Sales and Margins - The gross margin for vehicle sales, excluding carbon credits, was 12.5%, exceeding market expectations of 12.2% and reflecting a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][19]. - The average selling price per vehicle remained stable at $40,000, showing a slight increase from $39,800 in the previous quarter [2][21]. Future Sales Guidance - Tesla did not reiterate its previous guidance for positive year-over-year sales growth in 2025, but confirmed plans to launch the lower-cost Model 2.5 in the first half of 2025, alleviating market concerns about its cancellation [2][45]. Operating Profit and Costs - Operating profit for the quarter was $400 million, down nearly $1.2 billion from the previous quarter and below market expectations of $700 million, resulting in an operating margin of 2.1% [3][55]. - Increased operating expenses contributed to the decline in operating profit, with R&D expenses at $1.41 billion, exceeding market expectations [50][55]. Market Conditions and Risks - The market has lowered its 2025 sales expectations to 1.81 million units, with some analysts projecting even lower figures due to various regional challenges [7][47]. - In the U.S., potential cuts to the IRA subsidies could raise vehicle prices by approximately 12%, impacting demand [6][46]. - In Europe, recent policy changes regarding carbon emissions targets may create uncertainty for electric vehicle sales [6][46]. - In China, Tesla faces increasing competition and declining attractiveness of its models, particularly the Model Y Juniper [6][47].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report appears disappointing at first glance, but it contains underlying improvements, particularly in vehicle sales margins and pricing stability [3][7]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $19.34 billion, which fell short of market expectations but was slightly below the revised estimates of around $20 billion from major banks [3][14]. - Automotive revenue reached $14.2 billion, with actual vehicle sales (excluding carbon credits) at $12.9 billion, slightly below the latest expectations of $13.1 billion [14][15]. Vehicle Sales Margins - The gross margin for vehicle sales (excluding carbon credits) was 12.5%, which, despite a 1.1 percentage point decline from the previous quarter, exceeded market expectations of 12.2% [3][20][25]. - The decline in margins was anticipated due to lower sales volumes and production halts related to the Model Y Juniper update, which raised per-unit costs to historical highs [7][20]. Vehicle Pricing Stability - The average selling price per vehicle remained stable at $40,000, showing a slight increase from $39,800 in the previous quarter [4][27]. - The stability in pricing was attributed to the high starting price of the Model Y Juniper, which offset promotional financing measures and negative impacts from changes in vehicle mix [4][29]. Future Sales Guidance - Tesla did not reiterate its previous guidance for positive year-over-year sales growth in 2025, indicating that further guidance will be provided in Q2 [4][51]. - The launch of the lower-cost Model 2.5 is still on track for production in the first half of 2025, alleviating market concerns about potential delays [4][51]. Operating Profit and Margin Trends - Operating profit for the quarter was only $400 million, a decline of nearly $1.2 billion from the previous quarter and below market expectations of $700 million [5][61]. - The operating margin fell to 2.1%, down 4 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to lower-than-expected revenue and increased operating expenses [5][61]. Market Environment and Risks - The overall market environment for 2025 remains challenging, with significant risks in the U.S. related to potential cuts in IRA subsidies, which could increase vehicle prices by approximately 12% [8][52]. - In Europe, the recent easing of carbon emission targets may lead to uncertainty in electric vehicle sales, while in China, Tesla faces increasing competition from new entrants [8][52][53]. Sales Volume Expectations - Current market expectations for Tesla's 2025 sales have been lowered to 1.81 million units, reflecting a modest year-over-year growth of 1.3%, with some analysts projecting even lower figures around 1.7 million [9][51]. - The success of the Model 2.5 is critical for stabilizing sales volumes, with production expected to ramp up in June [9][53].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has experienced a significant decline of over 40% in 2025, raising questions about potential buying opportunities amidst ongoing challenges in sales and leadership concerns [1]. Sales Performance - Tesla's global sales have faced severe declines, with a 76% year-over-year drop in Germany and a 66% decrease in Australia for February [3]. - The company produced over 362,000 vehicles but delivered only around 336,000 in the first quarter, marking a 13% decline year-over-year and the weakest quarterly sales in nearly three years [6]. Leadership and Brand Image - Concerns regarding CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations and his involvement with the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have negatively impacted Tesla's brand image, leading to protests and attacks on Tesla vehicles and stores globally [4]. Analyst Sentiment - Investor and consumer sentiment towards Tesla has deteriorated, with increasing caution from analysts regarding the company's future prospects [5]. Future Prospects - Despite current challenges, Tesla plans to launch several new products in 2025, including a more affordable Model Y trim starting at $48,990 and the anticipated robotaxi business [7]. - The company is also focusing on artificial intelligence, with plans to launch supervised and unsupervised full self-driving software in 2025 [7]. Challenges Ahead - The dual challenges of Musk's political activities affecting sales and the impact of tariffs on costs pose significant risks for Tesla in the near term [8].