Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years. The target price is raised by 5% to HKD 111, implying a 14% upside potential [1][2]. Group 2 - The company has successfully expanded its main brand, Han Shu, broadening its demographic reach. The brand's performance in Q3 shows a decrease in the proportion of its main product series to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to about 15% [3]. - Multiple small brand models have shown promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August. Brands like An Min You and Ji Fang have seen significant increases in GMV, with An Min You reaching approximately 20 million yuan in August [4]. - The company emphasizes a performance-driven organizational structure and talent support, which are crucial for its transition to a multi-brand, multi-category platform. The company is also actively expanding into Southeast Asia [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit both increasing. The estimated revenue for H1 2025 is approximately 4.09 to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, while net profit is expected to be between 540 to 560 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [8]. - The main brand, Han Shu, solidified its foundation with significant growth driven by category and channel adjustments. In July, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin increased by 58%, benefiting from a shift towards self-operated sales channels [8]. - New product launches and high-end breakthroughs are opening new growth avenues. The New Page brand in the maternal and infant sector saw a GMV increase of 187% from January to July, while the hair care segment is also gaining traction [8]. - The company's strategy of multi-brand collaboration and channel optimization is yielding long-term advantages, focusing on core sectors and expanding product categories [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 4,191 million RMB - 2024: 6,793 million RMB - 2025E: 8,513 million RMB - 2026E: 10,466 million RMB - 2027E: 12,664 million RMB - The corresponding net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 461 million RMB - 2024: 781 million RMB - 2025E: 1,061 million RMB - 2026E: 1,364 million RMB - 2027E: 1,654 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 36% for 2025, 29% for 2026, and 21% for 2027 [7][9].