Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, with specific recommendations for companies like Maogeping and Shangmei Co. [4][9] Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector underperformed the market during the reporting period, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 3.1% [5] - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is expected to boost sales for Shangmei Co. and Maogeping, with strong performance anticipated on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [4][9] - Key companies such as Proya and Shanghai Jahwa reported mixed results, with Proya's revenue for Q3 2025 at 1.736 billion yuan, down 11.63% year-on-year, while Shanghai Jahwa's revenue grew by 28% to 1.483 billion yuan [10][15] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector showed a decline, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index down 2.6% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index down 0.9% [5] - The top-performing stocks included *ST Meigu (+12.3%) and Jinsong New Materials (+6.2%), while Huaxi Biological and Beitaini saw declines of 7.8% and 7.4%, respectively [5] Company Performance - Proya's Q3 2025 revenue was 1.736 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.63% year-on-year, with a net profit of 227 million yuan, down 23.64% [10] - Shanghai Jahwa reported Q3 revenue of 1.483 billion yuan, an increase of 28%, with a net profit of 140 million yuan [15] - Ruoyuchen's Q3 revenue reached 819 million yuan, up 123.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million yuan [18] Market Trends - The 8th China International Import Expo showcased major international beauty brands, highlighting trends such as high-end market targeting and AI technology in beauty research and development [27] - The report indicates that the Chinese market is evolving into a global innovation hub for beauty products, with a focus on sustainability and green transformation [27] E-commerce Insights - The report provides data on the performance of domestic brands on platforms like Douyin and Tmall, with Shangmei Co. achieving significant growth in GMV [21] - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in September 2025 grew by 8.6%, driven by pre-Double 11 promotions [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing increased growth certainty, allowing for a valuation premium, driven by better-than-expected performance growth, particularly in its main brand, Han Shu, which has successfully identified new revenue sources and adjusted operational strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Han Shu achieved revenue of 3.34 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% [1]. - The company has shifted its operational strategy, reducing the proportion of live streaming sales, resulting in a decrease in sales expense ratio by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company has seen explosive revenue growth in 2023 and 2024, with year-on-year increases of 144% and 81%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Brand Strategy - The "All in" strategy on Douyin has allowed Han Shu to break through and achieve significant sales growth, leveraging historical experience and rapid decision-making by the founder [2]. - The company is adopting a "top-tier resources" approach to create new brands, ensuring they have attention and differentiation from the outset, as demonstrated by the successful new brand "newpage," which generated 400 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 146% [3]. - The company is expanding its brand portfolio with multiple new brands across different categories, which is expected to further validate its operational capabilities and enhance long-term growth certainty [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1.07 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.59 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 37.2%, 24.0%, and 20.0%, respectively [3]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 33, 26, and 22 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, based on the closing price on October 17, 2025 [3].

Core Insights - The announcement of Jackson Wang as the global brand ambassador enhances the international positioning of the brand, leveraging his strong global fanbase and previous collaborations with high-end brands like Armani [1] - The company has a robust strategy for the Double Eleven sales event, focusing on profit and core products, with significant sales driven by collaborations with popular influencers [1][2] - The company is building a strong competitive moat through brand establishment, talent acquisition, resource procurement, and supply chain capabilities, aiming for long-term growth [2] Brand and Market Strategy - The company has optimized its product structure, achieving an online GMV of 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with significant sales from various product lines [2] - Plans for launching three new brands in 2025 and expanding into multiple categories and IP brands are in place, supporting a revenue target of 30 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - The company is pursuing a global expansion strategy, with initial investments of 300 million yuan in Southeast Asia and plans to enter North America and Europe [2] Financial Projections - The company expects a steady increase in net profit, projecting 1.149 billion yuan, 1.496 billion yuan, and 1.806 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 25, and 21 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has increased by over 3%, currently trading at 96.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 49.12 million HKD, driven by positive market developments and strong performance indicators in the beauty sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - According to Qingyan Intelligence, the total GMV of the top 20 beauty brands on Douyin is expected to exceed 3 billion CNY by September 2025, capturing a market share of 17.6%, which represents a year-on-year growth of 38.59% [1] - Han Shu, a leading brand under Shangmei, continues to lead with a GMV exceeding 500 million CNY [1] - Huatai Securities reports that Shangmei's revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year have been impressive, with strong growth momentum observed in August as the main brand Han Shu expands into multiple product categories [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched multiple brands, including Guoguang White, Bread Superhero, and NAN Beauty, since the beginning of the second half of the year, indicating effective brand expansion [1] - The ability to incubate and operate multiple brands and product categories has been initially validated, suggesting potential for further growth if this capability continues to be replicated [1] - The internal organizational structure is characterized by high efficiency and strong execution capabilities, laying a solid foundation for future growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) has increased by over 3%, currently trading at 96.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 49.12 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Company Performance - According to Qianyan Intelligence, the total GMV of the top 20 beauty brands on Douyin is expected to exceed 3 billion CNY by September 2025, capturing a market share of 17.6%, which represents a year-on-year growth of 38.59% [1] - Han Shu, a leading brand under Shumei, has achieved over 500 million CNY in GMV, maintaining its position at the forefront of the market [1] - Huatai Securities reports that Shumei's revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year have been impressive, with strong growth momentum observed in August as the company continues to expand its product lines, including next-generation essence and fragrance body wash [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - The company has successfully launched multiple brands, including Guangguang White, Bread Superhero, and NAN Beauty, since the second half of the year, indicating effective brand expansion strategies [1] - The ongoing multi-brand and multi-category incubation and operational capabilities of the company have been preliminarily validated, suggesting potential for further growth if these capabilities can be replicated [1] - The internal organizational structure of the company is characterized by high efficiency and strong execution, providing a solid foundation for future growth [1]

Summary of Shangmei Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is actively adjusting its channel structure, leading to rapid growth of the Han Shu brand on the Douyin platform, with a projected profit margin recovery to around 12% in the first half of 2025 and positive growth [2][5][6] - The company anticipates an annual growth rate exceeding 40% for the year [2][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Multi-Brand Strategy**: Shangmei is advancing a multi-brand strategy, launching high-end maternal and infant brand NewPage, expected to double its revenue to 800 million yuan this year, and the whitening product 聚光白, which has performed well since its launch [2][7][10] - **Growth Projections**: By 2026, Han Shu is expected to maintain over 20% growth, with a single brand market share projected to reach 12 to 15 billion yuan [2][8] - **Product Performance**: 聚光白 achieved profitability in its first month, with Douyin channel GMV surpassing 50 million yuan in August, and an annualized revenue forecast of 600 million yuan, with expectations to exceed 1 billion yuan in 2026 [2][9][10] - **Brand Positioning**: The Ji Fang brand, positioned in the hair care sector, has seen sales on Douyin exceed 20 million yuan post-adjustment, indicating strong performance in its niche [2][10] Additional Important Insights - **Management Changes**: Shangmei has shifted from a single management model to independent management by brand leaders, allowing for continuous expansion of its multi-brand matrix [3][11] - **Market Performance**: The Han Shu brand has shown strong alpha performance in the beauty industry, particularly on Douyin, maintaining the top sales position for 23 consecutive months since 2023, with a net profit margin exceeding 10% [4][5] - **Future Outlook**: The company is optimistic about the future of Han Shu and other new brands, planning to expand product categories and optimize product structure to further increase market share [8][11]

Company Dynamics - The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its audience coverage, with Q3 showing further growth in various categories [1] - The company has seen a decrease in the proportion of its main product series on Douyin to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to approximately 15%, and men's, color makeup, and body care products now account for nearly 10% [1] - In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin surpassed 200 million yuan, representing 25% of total sales, with body care and men's products exceeding 10% of total sales [1] Brand Performance - Multiple small brand models are showing promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August [2] - The Anminyou brand has significantly accelerated since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about 20 million yuan in August [2] - The Jifang brand has also seen monthly growth since its promotion began in May, with Douyin GMV nearing 20 million yuan in August [2] - The Juguangbai brand achieved over 50 million yuan in Douyin GMV in its first month of collaboration with top KOLs and is already profitable [2] - New products from NanBeauty and the launch of the children's cream from the Bread Superhero brand are also contributing to growth [2] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure that allows brand divisions high decision-making autonomy [2] - Continuous recruitment of top talent and effective incentive mechanisms are establishing a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion into a multi-brand and multi-category platform [2] - The company is actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 is maintained, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 31x for 2025 and 25x for 2026 [2] - The target price has been raised by 5% to 111 yuan, reflecting a P/E of 36x for 2025 and 29x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 14% [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years. The target price is raised by 5% to HKD 111, implying a 14% upside potential [1][2]. Group 2 - The company has successfully expanded its main brand, Han Shu, broadening its demographic reach. The brand's performance in Q3 shows a decrease in the proportion of its main product series to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to about 15% [3]. - Multiple small brand models have shown promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August. Brands like An Min You and Ji Fang have seen significant increases in GMV, with An Min You reaching approximately 20 million yuan in August [4]. - The company emphasizes a performance-driven organizational structure and talent support, which are crucial for its transition to a multi-brand, multi-category platform. The company is also actively expanding into Southeast Asia [5].

Group 1 - The company reported a robust revenue growth of 17.29% year-on-year, achieving an operating income of 4.108 billion yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 524 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 30.65% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.52%, a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 1.74 percentage points to 13.52% [1] Group 2 - The main brand, Han Shu, generated revenue of 3.344 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 14.3% increase, with significant sales from the Hong Man Yao and X Peptide series [2] - The second brand, Newpage, saw a remarkable revenue growth of 146.5% year-on-year, reaching 397 million yuan, achieving its annual sales target for 2024 [2] - The company is actively enhancing its online sales strategy, with self-operated online channels generating 3.421 billion yuan in revenue, a 24.6% increase, and accounting for 83.3% of total revenue [2] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.025 billion yuan, 1.286 billion yuan, and 1.566 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 26, and 21 [3]