Summary of Shangmei Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is actively adjusting its channel structure, leading to rapid growth of the Han Shu brand on the Douyin platform, with a projected profit margin recovery to around 12% in the first half of 2025 and positive growth [2][5][6] - The company anticipates an annual growth rate exceeding 40% for the year [2][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Multi-Brand Strategy**: Shangmei is advancing a multi-brand strategy, launching high-end maternal and infant brand NewPage, expected to double its revenue to 800 million yuan this year, and the whitening product 聚光白, which has performed well since its launch [2][7][10] - **Growth Projections**: By 2026, Han Shu is expected to maintain over 20% growth, with a single brand market share projected to reach 12 to 15 billion yuan [2][8] - **Product Performance**: 聚光白 achieved profitability in its first month, with Douyin channel GMV surpassing 50 million yuan in August, and an annualized revenue forecast of 600 million yuan, with expectations to exceed 1 billion yuan in 2026 [2][9][10] - **Brand Positioning**: The Ji Fang brand, positioned in the hair care sector, has seen sales on Douyin exceed 20 million yuan post-adjustment, indicating strong performance in its niche [2][10] Additional Important Insights - **Management Changes**: Shangmei has shifted from a single management model to independent management by brand leaders, allowing for continuous expansion of its multi-brand matrix [3][11] - **Market Performance**: The Han Shu brand has shown strong alpha performance in the beauty industry, particularly on Douyin, maintaining the top sales position for 23 consecutive months since 2023, with a net profit margin exceeding 10% [4][5] - **Future Outlook**: The company is optimistic about the future of Han Shu and other new brands, planning to expand product categories and optimize product structure to further increase market share [8][11]

机构：中金公司 研究员：徐卓楠/黄蔓琪 公司动态 公司近况 我们近期组织上美股份业绩后NDR交流。公司主品牌韩束品类拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖；年中以 来多个小品牌模式跑通、快速起量，多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现；长期看，人才及组织架构为构建平台型 化妆品集团提供底层支撑。我们看好公司中长期成长前景。 评论 1、主品牌韩束品类、功效拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖。韩束凭借多年沉淀的自有供应链及灵活高效 的线上运营能力，于大众价格带以质价比取胜，品牌可及空间广阔，多品类拓展顺利，Q3 进一步起 量：1H25 韩束抖音红白蛮腰系列合计占比下降至60%+，次抛占比提至约15%，男士/彩妆/洗护/身体护 理合计占比提至近10%；8 月次抛抖音月GMV进一步爬坡至超2 亿元，占比25%，洗护/身体护理/男士 合计占比提至超10%。 2、多个小品牌模式跑通、起量趋势亮眼，2H25 起多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现。①一页：7-8 月线上GMV 延续翻倍增长；②安敏优：上半年品牌调整显效，年中以来显著提速，8 月抖音GMV提升至约2000 万 元；③极方：5 月发力推广以来逐月起量，8 月抖音GMV爬坡至近2000 万元；④聚光白：合作抖音 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years. The target price is raised by 5% to HKD 111, implying a 14% upside potential [1][2]. Group 2 - The company has successfully expanded its main brand, Han Shu, broadening its demographic reach. The brand's performance in Q3 shows a decrease in the proportion of its main product series to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to about 15% [3]. - Multiple small brand models have shown promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August. Brands like An Min You and Ji Fang have seen significant increases in GMV, with An Min You reaching approximately 20 million yuan in August [4]. - The company emphasizes a performance-driven organizational structure and talent support, which are crucial for its transition to a multi-brand, multi-category platform. The company is also actively expanding into Southeast Asia [5].

Group 1 - The company reported a robust revenue growth of 17.29% year-on-year, achieving an operating income of 4.108 billion yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 524 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 30.65% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.52%, a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 1.74 percentage points to 13.52% [1] Group 2 - The main brand, Han Shu, generated revenue of 3.344 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 14.3% increase, with significant sales from the Hong Man Yao and X Peptide series [2] - The second brand, Newpage, saw a remarkable revenue growth of 146.5% year-on-year, reaching 397 million yuan, achieving its annual sales target for 2024 [2] - The company is actively enhancing its online sales strategy, with self-operated online channels generating 3.421 billion yuan in revenue, a 24.6% increase, and accounting for 83.3% of total revenue [2] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.025 billion yuan, 1.286 billion yuan, and 1.566 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 26, and 21 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance for H1 2025, with revenue of 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year, falling within the upper range of previous forecasts [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - The multi-brand matrix continues to grow, with online revenue increasing by 20.1% year-on-year in H1 2025. By brand, revenue for 韩束, Newpage 一页, 红色小象, 一叶子, and other brands were 3.34 billion, 400 million, 160 million, 90 million, and 120 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +14.3%, +146.5%, -8.7%, -29.0%, and +2.9% [1]. - By channel, online and offline revenues were 3.81 billion and 270 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +20.1% and -10.6% [1]. - By segment, skincare, maternal and infant care, and other categories generated revenues of 3.42 billion, 560 million, and 130 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +10.2%, +65.0%, and +124.3% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%. The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.5%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 63.2%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. Brand Performance - The main brand 韩束 showed steady growth, maintaining the top position in beauty brands on Douyin, with GMV growth of +15.5% on Douyin and +26.1% on Tmall. Star products like 红蛮腰 sold over 15 million units, and the X 肽 series generated over 200 million yuan in sales [2]. - The Newpage 一页 brand rapidly expanded, targeting skincare products for ages 0-18, with significant sales during the 618 shopping festival, achieving GMV growth of +190% on Douyin and +106% on Tmall [2]. Brand Portfolio Expansion - The company has a robust pipeline of brands across multiple segments, including a sensitive skin care brand in collaboration with 昆药集团, a high-end skincare brand 聚光白, and a high-end anti-aging brand TAZU. Additionally, it is preparing to launch IP co-branded products in maternal and infant care and new hair care and makeup brands [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.11 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 42.3%, 26.5%, and 24.8% respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to PE ratios of 30, 24, and 19 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, with a 17.3% increase in revenue and a 30.6% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating robust operational performance and market positioning [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 4.11 billion RMB and a net profit of 520 million RMB in the first half of 2025, with an EPS of 1.32 RMB [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 75.5%, while the expense ratio remained stable at 63.2% [2]. - Inventory increased by 7.2% year-on-year to 680 million RMB, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 5 days to 249 days [2]. - Operating net cash flow grew significantly by 77.5% to 390 million RMB [2]. Brand and Product Development - The main brand, Han Shu, maintained its leading position on the Douyin platform, ranking first among beauty brands and expanding its product line with new offerings [3]. - The company is actively pursuing a multi-brand strategy, launching new brands in various categories, including skincare, maternal and infant care, and cosmetics [3]. - New brands such as An Min You for sensitive skin and a high-end anti-aging brand TAZU are in development, alongside collaborations with well-known IPs for maternal and infant products [3]. Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its multi-brand strategy, which is anticipated to inject new growth momentum and enhance operational efficiency and profit margins [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted upward to 1.16 billion RMB, 1.47 billion RMB, and 1.83 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4].