东方证券发布研报称，通过对本届"最长周期+最简规则"双11的复盘，该行发现：1)美妆正从"单一的功 能性消费"迈向"复合功效+情感消费"，消费韧性将进一步突出;2)美妆不再依赖单一流量窗口，渠道提 效的叙事正在强化;3)头部品牌势能具更强韧性。该行继续看好品牌资产雄厚、能抓住渠道及产品周期 的头部公司，以及边际改善的标的。 东方证券主要观点如下： 双11大盘稳健增长，美妆即时零售爆发 1)据星图数据，双11大促期间(10月7日-11月11日)全网电商销售额16950亿元/+14.2%(同比增速、下同)， 其中综合电商销售额16191亿元/+12.3%，天猫、京东、抖音销售额位居前三;2)综合电商平台销售额 TOP5分别为家电、手机数码、服装、美妆个护、女鞋/男鞋/箱包，占比分别为16.5/14.6/14/8.2/6.5%;3)美 妆分品类：美容护肤品类销售额991亿元/+11.65%，洗护清洁444亿元/+13.54%，香水彩妆334亿 元/+13.52%;此外，从主要平台的统计口径看，美妆销售额增速基本为中个位数到10%出头;4)全网即时 零售销售额670亿元/+138.4%表现亮眼，以美团为例，10月底正 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is transitioning from "single functional consumption" to "composite efficacy + emotional consumption," indicating enhanced consumer resilience [4] - The beauty industry is no longer reliant on a single traffic window, with narratives around channel efficiency strengthening [4] - Leading brands exhibit stronger resilience, with a positive outlook on companies with robust brand assets that can capitalize on channel and product cycles [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Double 11 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [8] - Beauty and personal care sales reached 991 billion yuan, growing by 11.65% [8] - Instant retail sales surged to 670 billion yuan, marking a remarkable growth of 138.4% [8] Market Dynamics - Tmall leads in high-end beauty sales, while Douyin is becoming a significant platform for domestic brands [8] - The top five beauty brands on Tmall include Proya, Estée Lauder, Lancôme, L'Oréal, and SkinCeuticals, with Proya maintaining the top position for three consecutive years [8] - Douyin's beauty sales rankings show Han Shu at the top, followed by Proya and L'Oréal [8] Company Performance - Leading brands like Up Beauty, Ruo Yu Chen, and Mao Ge Ping have shown impressive performance during the Double 11 event [8] - Up Beauty's sales increased by 145% year-on-year, with significant growth on both Tmall and Douyin [8] - Ruo Yu Chen's sales saw a staggering 35-fold increase year-on-year, with Douyin sales growing by over 100% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, with specific recommendations for companies like Maogeping and Shangmei Co. [4][9] Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector underperformed the market during the reporting period, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 3.1% [5] - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is expected to boost sales for Shangmei Co. and Maogeping, with strong performance anticipated on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [4][9] - Key companies such as Proya and Shanghai Jahwa reported mixed results, with Proya's revenue for Q3 2025 at 1.736 billion yuan, down 11.63% year-on-year, while Shanghai Jahwa's revenue grew by 28% to 1.483 billion yuan [10][15] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector showed a decline, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index down 2.6% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index down 0.9% [5] - The top-performing stocks included *ST Meigu (+12.3%) and Jinsong New Materials (+6.2%), while Huaxi Biological and Beitaini saw declines of 7.8% and 7.4%, respectively [5] Company Performance - Proya's Q3 2025 revenue was 1.736 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.63% year-on-year, with a net profit of 227 million yuan, down 23.64% [10] - Shanghai Jahwa reported Q3 revenue of 1.483 billion yuan, an increase of 28%, with a net profit of 140 million yuan [15] - Ruoyuchen's Q3 revenue reached 819 million yuan, up 123.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million yuan [18] Market Trends - The 8th China International Import Expo showcased major international beauty brands, highlighting trends such as high-end market targeting and AI technology in beauty research and development [27] - The report indicates that the Chinese market is evolving into a global innovation hub for beauty products, with a focus on sustainability and green transformation [27] E-commerce Insights - The report provides data on the performance of domestic brands on platforms like Douyin and Tmall, with Shangmei Co. achieving significant growth in GMV [21] - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in September 2025 grew by 8.6%, driven by pre-Double 11 promotions [22][24]

Company Dynamics - The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its audience coverage, with Q3 showing further growth in various categories [1] - The company has seen a decrease in the proportion of its main product series on Douyin to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to approximately 15%, and men's, color makeup, and body care products now account for nearly 10% [1] - In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin surpassed 200 million yuan, representing 25% of total sales, with body care and men's products exceeding 10% of total sales [1] Brand Performance - Multiple small brand models are showing promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August [2] - The Anminyou brand has significantly accelerated since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about 20 million yuan in August [2] - The Jifang brand has also seen monthly growth since its promotion began in May, with Douyin GMV nearing 20 million yuan in August [2] - The Juguangbai brand achieved over 50 million yuan in Douyin GMV in its first month of collaboration with top KOLs and is already profitable [2] - New products from NanBeauty and the launch of the children's cream from the Bread Superhero brand are also contributing to growth [2] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure that allows brand divisions high decision-making autonomy [2] - Continuous recruitment of top talent and effective incentive mechanisms are establishing a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion into a multi-brand and multi-category platform [2] - The company is actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 is maintained, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 31x for 2025 and 25x for 2026 [2] - The target price has been raised by 5% to 111 yuan, reflecting a P/E of 36x for 2025 and 29x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 14% [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years. The target price is raised by 5% to HKD 111, implying a 14% upside potential [1][2]. Group 2 - The company has successfully expanded its main brand, Han Shu, broadening its demographic reach. The brand's performance in Q3 shows a decrease in the proportion of its main product series to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to about 15% [3]. - Multiple small brand models have shown promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August. Brands like An Min You and Ji Fang have seen significant increases in GMV, with An Min You reaching approximately 20 million yuan in August [4]. - The company emphasizes a performance-driven organizational structure and talent support, which are crucial for its transition to a multi-brand, multi-category platform. The company is also actively expanding into Southeast Asia [5].

Group 1 - The company reported a robust revenue growth of 17.29% year-on-year, achieving an operating income of 4.108 billion yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 524 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 30.65% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.52%, a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 1.74 percentage points to 13.52% [1] Group 2 - The main brand, Han Shu, generated revenue of 3.344 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 14.3% increase, with significant sales from the Hong Man Yao and X Peptide series [2] - The second brand, Newpage, saw a remarkable revenue growth of 146.5% year-on-year, reaching 397 million yuan, achieving its annual sales target for 2024 [2] - The company is actively enhancing its online sales strategy, with self-operated online channels generating 3.421 billion yuan in revenue, a 24.6% increase, and accounting for 83.3% of total revenue [2] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.025 billion yuan, 1.286 billion yuan, and 1.566 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 26, and 21 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance for H1 2025, with revenue of 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year, falling within the upper range of previous forecasts [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - The multi-brand matrix continues to grow, with online revenue increasing by 20.1% year-on-year in H1 2025. By brand, revenue for 韩束, Newpage 一页, 红色小象, 一叶子, and other brands were 3.34 billion, 400 million, 160 million, 90 million, and 120 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +14.3%, +146.5%, -8.7%, -29.0%, and +2.9% [1]. - By channel, online and offline revenues were 3.81 billion and 270 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +20.1% and -10.6% [1]. - By segment, skincare, maternal and infant care, and other categories generated revenues of 3.42 billion, 560 million, and 130 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +10.2%, +65.0%, and +124.3% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%. The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.5%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 63.2%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. Brand Performance - The main brand 韩束 showed steady growth, maintaining the top position in beauty brands on Douyin, with GMV growth of +15.5% on Douyin and +26.1% on Tmall. Star products like 红蛮腰 sold over 15 million units, and the X 肽 series generated over 200 million yuan in sales [2]. - The Newpage 一页 brand rapidly expanded, targeting skincare products for ages 0-18, with significant sales during the 618 shopping festival, achieving GMV growth of +190% on Douyin and +106% on Tmall [2]. Brand Portfolio Expansion - The company has a robust pipeline of brands across multiple segments, including a sensitive skin care brand in collaboration with 昆药集团, a high-end skincare brand 聚光白, and a high-end anti-aging brand TAZU. Additionally, it is preparing to launch IP co-branded products in maternal and infant care and new hair care and makeup brands [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.11 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 42.3%, 26.5%, and 24.8% respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to PE ratios of 30, 24, and 19 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, with a 17.3% increase in revenue and a 30.6% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating robust operational performance and market positioning [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 4.11 billion RMB and a net profit of 520 million RMB in the first half of 2025, with an EPS of 1.32 RMB [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 75.5%, while the expense ratio remained stable at 63.2% [2]. - Inventory increased by 7.2% year-on-year to 680 million RMB, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 5 days to 249 days [2]. - Operating net cash flow grew significantly by 77.5% to 390 million RMB [2]. Brand and Product Development - The main brand, Han Shu, maintained its leading position on the Douyin platform, ranking first among beauty brands and expanding its product line with new offerings [3]. - The company is actively pursuing a multi-brand strategy, launching new brands in various categories, including skincare, maternal and infant care, and cosmetics [3]. - New brands such as An Min You for sensitive skin and a high-end anti-aging brand TAZU are in development, alongside collaborations with well-known IPs for maternal and infant products [3]. Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its multi-brand strategy, which is anticipated to inject new growth momentum and enhance operational efficiency and profit margins [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted upward to 1.16 billion RMB, 1.47 billion RMB, and 1.83 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by optimized channel and brand structures, leading to better-than-expected profit margins. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue for 1H25 to be between 4.09 billion and 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - The expected net profit for 1H25 is projected to be between 540 million and 560 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] - The anticipated net profit margin for 1H25 is 13.4%, calculated based on the midpoint of the profit forecast [1] Group 2: Brand and Product Performance - The Han Shu brand has successfully expanded its product lines, with the proportion of its main product series decreasing to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to approximately 15% [1] - Newpage continues to show strong growth, with a GMV increase of over 140% across major platforms in 1H25 [1] - The company is also seeing growth in its new brands, such as Anminyou and Hongse Xiaoxiang, which are progressing well [1] Group 3: Profitability and Channel Optimization - Han Shu has optimized its channel structure, resulting in a significant improvement in profit margins, with the proportion of GMV from Douyin decreasing by 30 percentage points to 20% [2] - The overall profit margin for the company is expected to improve by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year to 13.4% due to the increased share of higher-margin brands like Newpage [2] Group 4: Future Growth and Brand Expansion - The company plans to continue expanding its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with further launches planned for the second half of 2025 [3] - The long-term strategy includes focusing on six major brands across skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant products over the next three years [3] - The company aims to establish a multi-brand, multi-category cosmetics group, indicating a broad growth potential in the market [3] Group 5: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 13% each, now estimating 1.13 billion and 1.39 billion yuan respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2025 and 22x for 2026, with a target price increase of 15% to 98 HKD, suggesting a 20% upside potential [3]