丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨拓荆科技（688072.SH） [Table_Title] 拓荆科技：业绩大幅增长，受益存储扩产趋势 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q3 公司实现营业收入 22.66 亿元，同比增长 124.15%；归母净利润为 4.62 亿元，同比增 长 225.07%；扣非净利润为 4.20 亿元，同比增长 822.50%；毛利率为 34.42%，同比减少 4.85pct。2025Q1-Q3 公司实现营业收入 42.20 亿元，同比增长 85.27%；归母净利润为 5.57 亿元，同比增长 105.14%；扣非净利润为 4.58 亿元，同比增长 599.67%；毛利率为 33.28%， 同比减少 10.31pct。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 赵智勇 倪蕤 王泽罡 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520030003 SAC：S0490521120001 SFC：BUW100 SFC：BRP550 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated sustained high growth in performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue reached 4.22 billion yuan, up 85.3% year-on-year, while net profit grew by 105.1% to 557 million yuan [2]. - The company is benefiting from new product launches and the expansion of production capacity, particularly in advanced process equipment, which has been validated by customers [2]. - Cost control measures and economies of scale have led to improved profitability, with a net profit margin of 20.0% in Q3, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in contract liabilities, indicating a strong order book and improved cash flow management, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 2.83 billion yuan for the first three quarters [4]. - The company is actively investing in the development of thin film deposition and advanced packaging equipment, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position in the semiconductor equipment sector [5]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 2.705 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 58.6%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 5.917 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 44.2% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 662.58 million yuan for 2023, with a significant increase to 1.004 billion yuan by 2025, representing a growth of 45.93% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 2.36 yuan in 2023 to 3.57 yuan in 2025, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company,拓荆科技, is expected to achieve a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, with revenue projected between 1.21-1.26 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.18%-58.47% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 74.26% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be between 238-247 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 100.64%-108.22% and a turnaround from loss to profit [5] - The gross profit margin has improved significantly quarter-on-quarter, indicating better cost control and operational efficiency [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.48-1.58 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase due to higher advance payments and sales collections [7] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.61 billion, 7.23 billion, and 8.98 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 990 million, 1.38 billion, and 1.93 billion yuan [9][10] - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 44, 32, and 23 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend as the company grows [9][10] Market Performance - As of July 17, 2025, the company's stock price is 156.55 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 43.79 billion yuan [6] - The company's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a 1-month increase of 11.7%, a 3-month decrease of 1.1%, and a 12-month increase of 22.9% [6]