新品验证顺利放量，Q2 盈利能力大幅回升 半导体 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 联系人：冯光亮 相关报告 1 、《【 中 泰 电 子 】 拓 荆 科 技 动业绩爆发》2024-09-10 拓荆科技（688072.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 Email：fenggl@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 279.73 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 279.73 | | 市价(元) | 182.86 | | 市值(百万元) | 51,151.27 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 51,151.27 | | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth in 2024, but faced challenges in Q1 2025 due to high customer validation costs and increased operating expenses, leading to a net loss. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 709 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.22%, but reported a net loss of 147 million yuan compared to a profit of 10 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.70%, and a net profit of 688 million yuan, up 3.86% [1] Business Segments - The semiconductor equipment segment generated revenue of 3.958 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.25%, while other businesses achieved revenue of 145 million yuan, a growth of 105.84% [2] - The film deposition equipment segment contributed 3.863 billion yuan in revenue, up 50.29%, and advanced bonding equipment and related testing equipment generated 96 million yuan, an increase of 48.78% [2] Order Backlog and Future Outlook - As of the end of 2024, the company had an order backlog of approximately 9.4 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for continued growth [2] - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and has made significant investments in R&D, with R&D expenses reaching 756 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 31.26% [3] Product Development - The company continues to expand its product line in film deposition equipment, with key products like PECVD maintaining a competitive edge and achieving repeat orders [4] - The company has completed the construction of its semiconductor advanced process equipment R&D and industrialization project, which is expected to be operational by June 2025 [4] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 41.69%, a decrease of 5.42 percentage points, primarily due to the high proportion of new product revenues and customer validation costs [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 16.75%, down 7.79 percentage points [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 51.7%, driven by increased demand for domestic semiconductor equipment from wafer manufacturers [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 690 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 41.7%, a decrease of 9.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] - As of the end of 2024, the company had nearly 9.4 billion yuan in orders on hand, providing strong support for future performance [5] - In Q1 2025, the company continued to achieve high growth with a revenue of 710 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 50.2% [5] - The company is expanding its film deposition process coverage and developing 3D integration equipment, which is expected to benefit from the expansion of advanced processes and packaging [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.8 billion yuan, 7.7 billion yuan, and 9.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 940 million yuan, 1.49 billion yuan, and 1.96 billion yuan [5][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 47, 31, and 23 times respectively [5][7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to recover to 45.2% in 2025 and further improve in subsequent years [7] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 15.3 billion yuan in 2024 and 22.8 billion yuan in 2027 [9]